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The main reason? 81% of Democrats say they will definitely vote, while 71% of Republicans say the same thing. I also imagine the independents are split like this. For what it's worth though, I would have included definitely and probably will vote in an LV screen.

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d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

One thing that's pretty interesting about the new YouGov/Economist poll is the split between Registered Voters and Likely Voters for Trump's approval and the Generic Ballot. Approval: RV: -26, LV: -25 Generic Ballot: RV: D+8, LV: D+15 LINK: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...

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Join the ElectionCord Discord Server!

You should join our Discord, just in case say, Bluesky goes down for some reason... LINK: discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR

discord.gg

ElectionCord is a community server revolving primarily around politics. | 664 members

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 8h

There’s a lot of opportunity here to not just rebuild Election Twitter, but to make something better. I was one of the first accounts to really commit to migrating over and as scary as that is we’ve got a real community going now far more talented than I

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Here is the closest election in recent memory to a result that looks similar to this: Ohio 2018 Senate, involving Sherrod Brown, in a wave year for Democrats. He ended up winning by about 7%, given I think the coalitions are likely going to be different. (1/2) LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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These are all of the 100K Districts that shifted right by at least 10% to Trump from 2020-2024. Most of these were majority-minority areas that Dems won, especially in NYC, CA, TX, and FL. Ironically? these are the areas we expect to shift back to Dems the most. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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Ohio Governor in the same timeframe: Marist (9/24-27): D+6 YouGov (9/1-10): D+3 Fox News (8/6-10): R+2

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 21h

Quality Ohio Senate Polls Since 8/1: Marist (9/24-27): D+8 Quantus (9/21-23): D+1 YouGov (9/1-10): D+3 Fox News (8/6-10): D+8

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Here's a Marist poll... From March that talks about whether New York City residents like the Mets or Yankees more LINK: maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/new-yo...

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 21h

While I am not trying to "compare" Cook and Crystal Ball, I was curious if Crystal Ball's practice of pushing toss-ups ended up making them more accurate... and it did! While Crystal Ball did get a lot more picks incorrect, they did also made more correct picks, and thus got a higher score.

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BeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 21h

Go check this list out! Many good accounts on here

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 23h

In case you haven't, follow @purrtah.bsky.social's Election Night Starter Pack! A lot of good accounts on here. LINK: go.bsky.app/Fma3sng And if you want the most up-to-date information on the election, join our Discord! LINK: discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 29/09/2026

Five counties I'm going to be watching on Election Day in Texas: 1. Williamson County- Suburban county in Talarico's home metro of Austin, needs to win this Trump +2 county 2 & 3: Collin and Denton Counties- Suburban counties in Dallas Trump won by double digits. Talarico has to get close.

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Marist Poll @maristpoll.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Set your alarm! Coming at midnight, our next Battleground State poll. The latest numbers in Ohio's Senate and Governor races... AND where Ohio voters stand on President Donald Trump. maristpoll.com/latest-polls

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Here's just one example of this: On YouGov's recent poll, 81% of Democrats said they definitely will vote, versus 70% of Republicans. I would also be interested to see the Independent numbers divided into Leans D and Leans R, and if there's a big gap or not

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Republicans don't really have a Trump -> Dem problem (at least not substantially), but they do seem to have a Trump -> Not Voting problem, particularly among those who weren't strong supporters of Trump in 2024. Conversely, they may also have a Not Voting -> Dem problem.

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QOTD: Here's a fun one, what is your 9Axes Result? Here's mine, although I only did the short version of the test. I don't think the test is perfect certainly, but still pretty interesting to see! LINK: 9axes.github.io

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Party Trust Issues since 8/1 Averaged: Healthcare: D+19 Democracy: D+11 Inflation: D+11 International Trade: D+9 Cost of Living: D+9 Economy: D+6 Corruption: D+5 Foreign Policy: D+4 AI: D+3 ------------ Immigration: R+4 Crime: R+9 Border Security: R+19

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The Colorado Springs metro, using our 100K Districts, and the shift from 2016 President to 2024 President. Colorado Springs was once considered one of the most conservative cities in the country, but that's quickly changing, as it shifted 13% left from 2016-2024. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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All the State Senate seats in the US that voted for Trump, but by under 10%. Obviously Democrats hold some of these seats, but these are the big targets for Democrats in 2026. Both in defending them, and flipping them. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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13th: California I'm both disappointed and impressed. Impressed because I got more counties than I expected to, and disappointed by just how inconsistent each county's methods for reporting are. Some had updated maps, some don't, some use clear sources, some don't. PLEASE STATES, make it consistent

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I mean, he is one of the very few Democrats who isn't doing anything else anyways. Him and Newsom are term-limited, have a relatively big national profile, and seem hungry to do... something

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I'll defend the polling aggregate accounts for a lot of things (namely related to things related to crashouts from ex-538 members), but one thing I will not defend them about is treating obvious glup shitto pollsters like legitimate polls. Like, Big Data Polling should not be taken seriously

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Honestly given 2018 midterms were D+9 when he was much popular……why is a double digit wave treating as an unmentionable when he’s at -30 Lowkey what the fuck America, bring that Generic Ballot up. D+9; rookie numbers; I want to see D+17/18 (H/t @electioncord.com)

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Newsletter: The 2026 Democratic Primaries, In Retrospect

Check out the articles we released this week! From @corncobanalysis.bsky.social: 2026 Primaries: electioncord.com/newsletter-t... 5 Seats the Dems Should Target: electioncord.com/five-seats-t... From me: Differences Between 2018 and 2026 Midterms: electioncord.com/the-differen...

electioncord.com

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Not every race shifts evenly from a Presidential year to a Midterm. First picture is 2016 Pres -> 2018 Senate, and the second one is 2020 Pres -> 2022 Senate. 2022 is interesting, as Dems did better in AZ, PA, and OH, but much worse in FL, SC, and AL. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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He loves attention, doesn't he. The funny thing is, I assume any outcome except for 51D-49R he won't seriously consider it. So yea, Dems very well may need to win 52 seats to ensure this doesn't happen.

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There's a lot of polls going around right now, and I want to caution people against treating them all the same. Something to look at is who the pollster is and who sponsors it. I would say that there are three types of quality pollsters: -Colleges -Major media sponsored -Longtime pollsters (1/2)

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Not that I think Tuberville is in a ton of danger of losing the Governor's Race, but he's running against Former Senator Doug Jones. He should just not say anything, and the more nationalized this race gets, the more of a concern the GOP could have here

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Working on our live election results project, specifically regarding our precinct maps, it shows a flaw in how votes are reported, in my opinion. I feel like precinct information should be available in every county and state, and in theory every county can, some just don't choose to!

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Personal Ratings Changes (Don't take too seriously) Iowa Senate: Lean R -> Tilt R Texas Senate: Tilt R -> Tilt D Kansas Senate: Likely R -> Lean R WI-01: Tilt D -> Lean R VA-05: Likely R -> Lean R SC-01: Lean R -> Tilt R PA-01: Tilt R -> Lean R MI-04: Tilt R -> Lean D IA-03: Lean D -> Likely D ⬇️

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Atlanta (left) versus the rest of Georgia (right), using 2024 Pres. and our 100K Districts. Harris won Atlanta by about 25%, while Trump won the rest of Georgia by 28%. The problem for Harris was that she needed Atlanta to be a bigger piece of the pie. LINK: electioncord.com/suffragium/

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Generic Ballot Update: Democrats crossed over 50%, and lead by about 8.5%. Democrats: 50.2%, Republicans: 41.6% Other Crosstab Averages: Indies: D+16 Moderates: D+24 College Grads: D+18 Non-College: D+0.2 (1/2) LINK: electioncord.com/generic-ball...

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Having these cross-tabs averages from Generic Ballot polls is so awesome Please follow @electioncord.com yall; they track averages on Trump’s approval on issues and economic sentiment and so much more, as well as analyses on the primaries, specials state leg maps, previous elections- it’s great!!

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12th: Iowa Iowa was very easy to add, thank you to the Iowa SOS for just having every county's precinct info on one page, hosted by Clarity!

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QOTD: What is the biggest reason why you are voting the way you are in the midterms?

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One potential weak spot for Democrats in 2026 could be GA Governor. Besides the fact that Rick Jackson, the Republican, is self-funding his own campaign and has "raised" 20x the amount of money as KLB, KLB had some warning signs in the primary, mainly that she did the worst in Atlanta!

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