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if you believe Trump is at 36% or lower approval, you really shouldn't be expecting anything other than a GCB in the double digits Dem

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Angie Nixon @angieforfl.bsky.social · 1h

I mean at 28% it's higher than his approval on the economy... but I think that's a bit low for anything resembling "help" to arrive for the GOP I have to keep saying that presidential approval is deeply linked to midterm vote share for their party, you cannot outrun a bad approval but so much

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Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge

I don’t go high when they go low. I get LOUD. Because the soul and humanity of this country are at stake. /end

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Angie Nixon @angieforfl.bsky.social · 1h

I don't wanna COUCH my words here: I know JD Vance, his eyeliner, and absent Ashley Moody are used to running away from people when things get tough because they care more about themselves and their billionaire buddies than the people they represent. But this is my home. /1

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functional moron @fiveburger.bsky.social · 1h

i continue to anchor on the tennessee 9th special election, which feels the closest to what midterms will be like. it was highly nationalized, turnout was ~99.5% of the 2022 midterms, and it was a d+13 shift. this was in december 2025, when gas was under $3 a gallon and there was no iran war

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Sam @samd.bsky.social · 1h

regarding my repost: isn't it 25% of Trump 2024 voters that we've read in polls regret their vote? do you folks really think that there wouldn't be some regrets about voting for the senile pedophile who is clearly becoming more unhinged by the day, that those folks wouldn't lie out of shame eh?

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Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge

everyone is worried that the polls are overstating democrats… but, what if they’re actually overstating republicans because respondents are lying about not supporting Trump in 2024

$The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru & @Garrett_... • 1h Two pollsters I've spoken to in the last few weeks say they are certain their respondents are lying on the 2024 recall question. X CJ Warnke @cjwarnke • 4h NEW @HouseMajPAC poll in #TX15 Bobby Pulido: 54% Monica De La Cruz: 41%... \ 24 1］39 434 ill 55K Political Election Projections @tencor7.... 1h O In which direction? 2 贝企 x.com The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru • @Garrett_Archer They're lying by saying they voted for Harris.$

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so if all the undecideds are conservative GOPers who will "come home", why are they still undecided? especially considering that undecideds point against the incumbent party in midterms... I could even believe that they're disillusioned Rs who don't vote... but that they go R? that's abnormal cope

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Shift in Virginia primary vote (raw number of voters) 2018 -> 2026 Both had contested Senate nominations and a handful of House primaries, 2026 has MORE competitive House districts Seems bad for them!

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laughing at a post insisting that one "can't" criticize the electorate modeled in a poll is it illegal? immoral? risky to my health? pretty sure I can say that Kentucky will be D+50 and my life will be perfectly fine. I don't believe that, but I think some people are confusing doctrine with choice

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Susan Wild for PA-SEN in 2028 or 2030 is growing on me considering how actively she's been a hater of all the worst people on Twitter in retirement Seems like someone who'd be angry enough at the GOP to do what's necessary

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patiently waiting for everyone to reach where I am on Texas :) Dem internal? Well when the pollsters are all using Spanish, then I'll hear folks out about bias.

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Oliver Willis @owillis.bsky.social · 6h

I salute the deep cover democratic socialist who makes these panels at Fox News, they're doing a fantastic job reaching the other side amidst the right not realizing how this stuff polls

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Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge

the democrats who put themselves in a panic over hasan piker are the same democrats who push the party to be anti trans, and a generation ago were the ones saying we cant oppose the war in iraq these people are never right they doom the party they hurt america stop listening to them

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 4h

Getting really annoyed at the people who think they're being profound truth-tellers by poo-pooing the disapproval numbers for Trump and insisting we all concentrate on his approval being higher than 0% No kidding, people suck! But most not sucking is important for society. It'll do. Not surprising.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 4h

Maine AARP poll oversampled men by 6, Trump voters by 1-2, should be a bit bluer probably Jackson is definitely winning, Siena was just wrong

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 5h

Okay I know why the VA-05 number sucks now The LV screen is stupid Note the 68-29 in Charlottesville + Albemarle 2024 was 69.307 - 30.315 in that portion of VA-05. I'm calling BS on that being the case this time. Almost certainly they undercounted youth vote IMO bluevirginia.us/2026/10/new-...

Blue Virginia has some data from the WaPo poll that I used here

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 5h

Alright nice nice D internal obviously the catch here but that's a lead and 3 points and close to 50% isn't half bad

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maria_from_ga @mariafromga.bsky.social · 6h

17% overall with only *thirty-six percent of Republicans* say Trump keeps his promises; Trump economic net disapproval has doubled since last year - this is how the bottom begins to fall out for the GOP

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 5h

as I recall, 2025 was about D+7 in Virginia most likely considering that, this EV shift brings one to D+9 environment (with EDay factored in, assuming no change) I think that's more than enough for a national D+12 tbh projects.statenavigate.com/interactives...

projects.statenavigate.com

Virginia 2026 early voting | State Navigate

Track Virginia early ballots by county or congressional district, compare daily changes, and explore projected early-vote partisanship.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 6h

this is so funny (No GOP primaries in 2021 and 2025, party leaders shoved Youngkin down the voters' throats in 2021 at convention so that they could avoid Amanda Chase being the nominee). no one was left on GOP ballots for 2025 but the nominees, so no primaries then. www.vpap.org/visuals/visu...

vpap.org

Statewide Republican Primary Turnout

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Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com · 6h

"the periphery will be easier to control if it is fragmented into many warring statelets" this is some late roman empire ass thinking

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Matthew Dowd @matthewjdowd.bsky.social · 9h

Latest WSJ poll: "63% want to pause AI development 61% want a billionaire wealth tax 59% want Medicare for All 57% want a $20 minimum wage 58% want to end U.S. military aid to Israel" This is the center of the country politically. it is time all adjust to this political spectrum, esp. media.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 6h

I haven't looked at both of these in a while, so here's a comparison of 2025 to 2026 on estimated (L2 data) partisanship, same day (34 days prior to election, Oct 1 2025 and Sept 30 2026) 2026: 64.7 - 31.1 2025: 58.541 - 37.706 D+20.835 -> D+33.6 caution that more Dems are EV now, not GCB per se

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 7h

I cite this pretty often now - Incumbent party seems to consistently get about 5-8 points above the President's approval rating in midterms (more examples in the thread) and the presidential election is the incumbent approval and then 2 points to the GOP, I think because the national PV leans D

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 7h

new NYT Trump approval average is 37-61 and remember this is counting every junk Rasmussen and Harvard/Harris poll too 37+8 = 45, implies a D+10 GCB at *best* for the GOP. 37+5 = 42, low end gives D+16 GCB. ain't that funny how I say around D+13...

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

RIP there will never again be an MTurk poll

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

Washington Post poll of VA-01 and VA-05 finds Wittman down 4 and McGuire up 6. I have yet to see crosstabs or anything, paywall is stopping me but I hope to see details soon. These would be D+17 and D+9 shifts respectively for a ~D+12 GCB counting from pres and D+11 GCB from House in 2024. (Average)

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Talia "ATTACK DOGS is out now!" Bhatt ⚢ @taliabhatt.itch.io · 8h

We have gone long enough pretending the institutionally sanctioned rape clubs are something legitimate and worthy of continued existence.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 8h

VPAP early vote update, 34 days out (note I missed a day): 2026: 282,379 2022: 130,999 IPEV: 181,912 Mail: 100,469 VA-05 and VA-06 over one-third of its total 2022 EV. 01 and 09 look soon to follow. I'm a bit surprised to see 09 high up here, but as I've said, GOP here does EV sometimes.

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Andrea Grimes @andreagrimes.com · 15h

i am having trouble articulating this but a system that excuses gang rape as a youthful error on behalf of college men with ~ bright futures ~ does so because it is served by producing older men who are comfortable with, even enthusiastic about, torturing people at the system's behest

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

Okay that other veto was bad but this is just horrific Everyone knows these are just creep enabling devices. I have an app on my phone to track them because people know this! And this is just to punish them if they're caught in unambiguously inappropriate settings. It's just support for predators.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 9h

Oh, I think this is a new disapproval threshold. And this isn't the one group that always polls Trump the lowest. Very nice to see undecideds pushed these days. The GCB in November would be in the range of D+22 if he is truly at 31% and *historical* patterns hold, also

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 15h

So what's happened to the right-wing conspiracy media ecosystem that's existed in Spanish on WhatsApp and elsewhere Pollling says its not working so well anymore clearly, but is it still operational? Is it just being ignored?

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 15h

Maybe this should get more coverage than Tucker Carlson endorsing Abdul because: 1. Newsom happily had Bannon on the second episode of his show 2. This is infinitely more contact and positive contact especially than AES and Carlson have ever had and so is actually concerning 3. The Presidency.

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 17h

There have been more polls of Ohio that sampled in Spanish than polls of FLORIDA that sampled in Spanish. Texas has had a few. Ohio Spanish-speaking population: 2.36% (Kent State #) Florida Spanish-speaking population: 22.6% (Data USA #) Texas Spanish-speaking population: 28.78% (Various #)

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current Senate feeling MS is very close to Safe R, hard to imagine it flipping. FL could be Tossup if it were polled more, KS I want to see some more but my gut increasingly says Hamilton. IA might fall back to Tilt D, we'll see. Not sure what else is interesting here. Safe Rs aren't possible.

Interesting ratings:

AK: Likely D
NE: Tilt I
KS: Tossup
TX: Likely D
IA: Lean D
MI: Likely D
OH: Lean D
MS: Likely R
FL: Tilt R
GA: Safe D
SC: Lean R
NC: Safe D
ME: Likely D

53 D (51+2) - 1 Tossup - 1 I - 45 R

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evy kwong @evystadium.bsky.social · 22h

reminder that "top GOP recruit" Michael Whatley is having polls where he's down TWELVE in an R+5 sample get released by GOP pollsters. as if that's a good thing. He's supposedly one of their BETTER candidates. One of the best, even. Why should it be surprising then that Paxton will lose by 10?

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Reposted by Hyde T. Voltyge

"Men shouldn’t require a daughter, wife, girlfriend or sister before sexual violence against women becomes important to them. Women are enough. And condemning sexual assault shouldn’t qualify anyone for a medal. The bar is on the floor. Step over it."

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I am part of the -0.6% yay Virginia looking a bit rough sadly... We got DOGE'd

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