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Paul Bivand

@paulbivand.bsky.social
1.3K followers 1.1K following 1.8K posts

Labour market stats wonk: default mode: cynical. Boosts are not endorsements and may be ironic. Also on avian-dinosaur-site @PaulBivand

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Reposted by Paul Bivand
Mike Prior-Jones @drmikepj.bsky.social · 13h
This was somewhat upended by Silicon Valley business culture because small businesses did get access to cash from investors, but only because that model allowed bigger companies to underinvest internally in R&D and then acquire a promising startup instead.
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Rick @flipchartrick.bsky.social · 14h
Small business isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Big companies are the engines of economic growth. The more an economy is dominated by small businesses, the more likely it is to be a weak one.
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Daniel Knowles @dlknowles.bsky.social · 4h
There's something a little depressing in the fact that the British establishment stood up against Enoch Powell's racism in the 1960s than it seems to be willing to be now
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 11h
Always fascinating how the principle of diminishing returns quietly reverses itself in the politics of UK labour supply. If you want people with some money already to work more, you need to offer them a bit more. If you want people without much money to work more, you need to take some away.
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ianVisits @ianvisits.co.uk · 02/10/2026
A man who deliberately blew up a ULEZ camera in south-east London has been jailed for 15 years after an investigation by Counter Terrorism Policing London.
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Prof. Ian Walker @ianwalker.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Autonomous vehicles offer to entrench, for another generation, the idea that the any other use of urban streets must come second to the rapid movement of metal boxes
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Will Norman @willnorman.co.uk · 02/10/2026
Cargo bike use in London is booming - up 126% since 2022. This week I joined 50 businesses - from Royal Mail to delivery firms, waste companies & tradespeople - to celebrate & raise awareness of this clean, green & economical alternative to diesel vans. #CargoBikeCruiseLDN
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Frances Ryan @francesryan.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Disability doesn’t care how old you are. Specialist food is no cheaper if you’re 19. Employers don’t lose their prejudice if you’re 21. This is blatant intergenerational inequality from Labour. Younger disabled people of all severities deserve better. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Key disability benefit for young people may be axed under major welfare changes
Exclusive: Plan under discussion involves intensive support to help young people into employment
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 01/10/2026
The evidence is clear: countries with lower NEET rates than the UK get there almost entirely through higher rates of post-18 education. In these countries, more young people stay in education for longer and often combine it with work.
Comparison of OECD countries’ differences from the UK in 2024 for 18–24‑year‑old participation in education or work
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Anna Clarke @annaclarke.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I also think the degree of transience in this population is underestimated. I know loads of young people (own kids included) who've been NEET for a period during their teens and early 20s. Sometimes it's a choice (eg going travelling). Other times it's job-hunting, or waiting to start a course.
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Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Shocking new ONS statistics underline the urgency of the PM's focus on homelessness. c1,000 homeless people died in 2025. The 2nd consecutive year at that level. Most of these deaths were men in their 40s & 50s. Around a third were a direct result of drug poisoning. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
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World Bollard Association™️ @worldbollardassoc.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Listen to that CRUNCH. Absolutely delicious. #WorldBollardAssociation
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Yaroslava @strategywoman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Kyiv. A building of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine hit by a russian drone on Monday. You see what I saw a few hours ago.
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Tim Daw @timdaw.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Historic England vanishing archive - details of why it is broken : www.sarsen.org/2026/09/hist...
sarsen.org
Historic England’s Vanishing Archive
Not just the aerials. The lot. Historic England still holds the negatives, the prints and the scans. What the public lost, in early Sept...
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peterkwells @peterkwells.com · 29/09/2026
You could read this blogpost from the GDS Geospatial Data team about building on the £1bn Public Sector Geospatial Agreement without realising that the PSGA includes a chunk of money for open data that anyone, including those outside public sector!, can use gdsgeospatial.blog.gov.uk/2026/09/29/b...
gdsgeospatial.blog.gov.uk
Building on the PSGA: better data, wider impact
The Public Sector Geospatial Agreement has transformed access to Britain’s national location data. We look at what GDS, Ordnance Survey and public-sector users have achieved together, how organisation...
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Surprised Eel Historian, PhD @greenleejw.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It's Tuesday, and you're wondering: "Why should I care about eels?" Well...in addition to being great fodder for memes, eels are super-important to stream ecologies! Historically, eels have made up as much as 50% of the total fish biomass in lower reaches of US & European rivers. 🗃️🧪
Meme. Picture of an eel underwater. The picture is taken from the side, so you can only see one of the eel's blue-tinged eyes, fixed on you like the red-rimmed Eye of Sauron (if Sauron were a happy fish). The eel (we'll call him Kryztaphix) seems like he is peeking out from a hole in the rocks. There are stones in the water behind him, one of which seems like a lovely speckled granite. Kryztaphix is a dark grey on top, and a shiny silver below. He is likely stopping to say hi on his way to sea. 

Kryztaphix has a kindly smile on his face, and you feel comfortable in his presence. It's the sort of look that makes you want to spill out your whole life story, including that one time in middle school. You know the one. Kryztaphix won't judge you. He seen worse. Hell...he's done worse. And he will take your secrets to his Sargasso grave. You really couldn't ask for more.

Meme text reads:
"Half your streams
are belong to us."
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Kent Current @kentcurrent.news · 29/09/2026
Southern Water has had an expensive year, with £9.5m in pollution fines in Kent. Most offences happened years ago, so has anything changed? Evidence shows improvement, but recent inspections are less reassuring. Plus 122 councillor complaints, bleak housing figures and more.
kentcurrent.news
Southern Water keeps being fined for polluting Kent. Has anything actually changed?
Plus 122 councillor complaints, a bleak housing picture, recycled clothing in potholes and more from across Kent
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Local Authority @localauthority.news · 29/09/2026
Glyn Griffiths spent 30 years representing Twydall and helped create Medway Council. Now he chairs the board overseeing £20m of investment in the area. In our interview, he discusses how it should be spent, what austerity changed, and why he moved from the SWP to Labour.
localauthority.news
“We’ve got to try and give an agenda of hope”
What Steven asked Glyn Griffiths, new chair of the Pride in Place Twydall board.
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Professor Peter Matthews @urbaneprofessor.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The one I like is the idea that the state pension should be means tested. We already do that in the most efficient way the state has ever found: Income Tax. People really do seem to think pensioners pay no tax at all 🤷🏻‍♂️
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Clare Griffiths @statsgeekclare.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Do you use Health trends in England fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-repor...? We are looking to replace it with a new integrated service for public health data and we're running a survey with users at the moment to understand what they currently use it for. forms.office.com/Pages/Respon...
fingertips.phe.org.uk
Health trends in England
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Paul Bivand @paulbivand.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Report explaining how the ONS under previous management was able to get away with a decade and more of falling response rates to the Labour Force Survey. Never admit a problem. The 'give us a number' people didn't ask for full details. Only admitting a problem alerted them.
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David Higham @oldtrotter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Ending the triple lock isn’t the same as cutting pensions. Thatcher linked the state pension to inflation rather than earnings growth with the result that the value of pensions fell relative to earnings. The triple lock was designed to reverse than trend. It’s done its job. Restore the earnings link
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David Higham @oldtrotter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
As a matter of logic you cannot be “hard working” if you rely on the state pension. I hope ministers will keep (start?) explaining that the state pension isn’t paid out of an investment fund but by the contributions of those currently working.
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Mahmood on "earned settlement": deliberately bland. No explanation of why punishing workers who have been here legally for 5+ years with ongoing insecurity (and in many cases kicking them out of the country) would be "fair" to British workers "and the young".
As we restore control and fairness to our asylum system. We must do the same for legal migration too: Fair to those who seek a new and better life here, like my parents did. And fair to those already here, including British workers, and especially the young.

That same principle underpins my reforms to the right to live here indefinitely. Ensuring settled status is earned by those who have shown a consistent commitment to this country.

I know that, throughout our consultation process some have said elements of these reforms are not fair.

And to that, let me say this: we will come to a position that balances fairness for those who came here legally and fairness to British citizens across this country.
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/09/2026
Important to note that ONS is now doing the right thing and trying to find the truth. This is nothing like the 2010s when it actively sought not to change stats (RPI) that it knew were wrong
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Richard Jones @richardaljones.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Good piece. It should be obvious that technological progress is very uneven, and that productivity growth is disproportionately driven by a relatively small number of firms operating in sectors where fast technological progress is taking place, but this is not widely enough appreciated.
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Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
As I keep saying, not repairing a bridge imposes a cost on future generations, just not the kind of cost that is immediately visible in the accounting system
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David Kernohan @dkernohan.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Healey just announced it. It's a good thing. Here's why.
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World Bollard Association™️ @worldbollardassoc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Probably the greatest parallel parking you’ll ever see. #WorldBollardAssociation
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Simon is on strike ✊🏻 @simonxix.com · 28/09/2026
Historic England outsourced their digital image provision to a third-party company. Then the company went bust and now all their images are inaccessible. Tell me again how outsourcing to the private sector is sustainable?
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Ed Pybus @epybus.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Is the asset means test in Universal Credit really just a benefit rule? Or is it a hidden wealth tax? New research looks at how capital limits can impose very high effective rates of taxation on the savings and inheritances of low-income households.
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Mark On A Bike @mtonabike.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Well these are eye catching from Better Streets for Liverpool
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Nigel Stanley @nigelstanley.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
1/5 Around #Malvern Following from yesterday's snap, I'll have a week of further pix from a couple of days in Great Malvern in August. The Malvern Hills go straight up from the edge of the town. Here's a view from near the highest point. It should be greener! #photography #landscapephotography
The image depicts a rolling landscape with golden-brown hills and patches of green vegetation. The terrain is dotted with clusters of trees and shrubs, creating a natural, earthy palette. In the distance, the horizon stretches out with layers of hills and open fields under a partly cloudy sky. The scene evokes a sense of tranquility and the beauty of rural nature.
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Good piece on prices but doesn’t really mention the other side: transactions. Turnover has collapsed in London, especially central areas. That means the price evidence is based on thin volumes and most people are sitting it out (thanks high rents!). That’s prevented further price falls.
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Alick Simmons @parliamentarygoose.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
If these incidents were taken seriously one would expect the time between the incident and the request for information to be substantially less than two months. And if these places were properly regulated and they were charged for the privilege, then an effective enforcement body could be funded.
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Dr Rebecca Wragg Sykes @lemoustier.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
🏺 The #SecretsOfTheIce project is of course only possible thanks to the #ClimateCrisis, but it has revealed extraordinary diversity of ancient projectile tech: arrows made from ground slate, mussel shell, and bindings not just of sinew but also birch bark secretsoftheice.com/news/2026/09...
Photo of a hand holding a finely ground, long slate arrow head still hafted on its shaft tip. Background is a mountain ice and rock patch.Photo of an arrow shaft tip, showing sinew and dark bark wrapped around it. Caption:
"Rear section of an arrow shaft. It has been reinforced with animal sinew and birch bark around the nock. Approximately 3,600 years old. Photo. Frys film, Innlandet County Municipality, Secrets of The Ice."Photo of a partly fragmented arrow tip, against gritty muddy ground.. Caption:
"Arrowhead made from freshwater mussel shell. The arrowhead is fragile and has begun to split. Approximately 3,600 years old. Photo. Frys film, Innlandet County Municipality, Secrets of The Ice."
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This is *not* the result of "the success of Mahmood's reforms", but of earlier measures/other factors. Her proposals could make it considerably *worse* in future years. A few other points linked below.. archive.ph/0psJ8
Falling migration numbers could cost the chancellor as much as £7bn in fiscal headroom as he writes his first budget, The Times has been told. 

Government insiders believe that John Healey, who already faced an uphill battle to balance the books next month, is likely to have an even bigger challenge after immigration significantly undershot projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). 

The Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank estimated last month that the success of Shabana Mahmood’s reforms, which have seen net migration cut to the low hundreds of thousands, could cost Healey some £4bn. 

Labour sources familiar with the budget process, however, said that the figure was now closer to £6.5bn. The OBR’s migration forecasts have been consistently higher than real numbers in recent years.

Treasury officials, who have long expected Mahmood’s reforms to cause a hit to headroom, described the number as “pure speculation” but did not deny that Healey would have to contend with a larger funding gap than expected because of falling migration
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I see Marios has made the same point with even more relevant data. bsky.app/profile/mari...
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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
So you're jumping from Occupational Economic Class data (premised on being able not think about age/housing wealth) to making an inference about housing costs ... ... but the housing patterns run sharply the other way. CON+REF voters least likely to be concerned about rents/mortgages.
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David Higham @oldtrotter.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The BBC is capable of decent reporting when it tries. Personally I find people dressed like this very intimidating, which is sadly why they do it. A major challenge for overstretched police forces. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Balaclava boys on electric bikes: How to tackle the problem?
The sight of masked young men on electric bikes or motorcycles is becoming increasingly familiar - what can be done about it?
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Tyler Morgan-Wall @tylermw.com · 26/09/2026
This corner of a children’s coloring placemat has literally no entertainment value, I’m fairly sure it was developed purely to trigger millennial parents and get engagement on social media
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Neal Hudson @resi-analyst.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Probably took about two years for H2B equity loan to be additional (deliver more new build homes than without it)
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Mauri Pelto @mauri-pelto.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Ultramarine Glacier, Alaska has had no accumulation zone in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024 and 2026. The lack of a persistent accumulation zone indicates a glacier that cannot survive. The glacier has retreated 2.2 km since 1986. glacierchange.blog/2026/09/26/u...
glacierchange.blog
Ultramarine Glacier Retreat: 1986 to 2026 Landsat Insights
Discover dramatic retreat of Ultramarine Glacier, Alaska losing 2.2 km since 1986. After 2018 it lost all snow cover most years, indicating it can't survive.
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Robert Wright @reporterrwright.ft.com · 26/09/2026
The incident that killed the man riding the e-bike is now being treated as murder: news.met.police.uk/news/murder-...
news.met.police.uk
Murder investigation launched following fatal collision in North Kensington
Detectives have launched a murder investigation after a cyclist died following a collision
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Rick @flipchartrick.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The government, banks, utilities and similar services MUST make it easier for those with Power of Attorney to manage stuff online. I find I'm having to do a lot of stuff by phone. It's like being back in the 90s except without the 90s infrastructure to help.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Seconded - by any of us who've had to deal with this stuff!
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Helen Barnard @helenbarnard.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
A clarification: 👬People on Universal Credit 👬Workers 👬Taxpayers Are not distinct groups. c4/10 of those on UC work, many will pay NICs, some also income tax. Everyone pays VAT. Most people pay council tax. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
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Janine Gibson @janinegibson.ft.com · 26/09/2026
The Weekend FT debut of new feature writer Will Lloyd is a deeply reported and terrifying analysis of how prepared Britain is for omnipresent crisis. Alt headline "Why are we so screwed?" giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
How resilient is Britain?
As climate and geopolitical risks cast doubt on the UK’s ability to cope in a crisis, leaders are turning from ‘just in time’ to ‘just in case’ as a governing philosophy
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Rayner is correct: these proposals are economically damaging and politically counterproductive. Pretty clear that view is now almost universal in the Cabinet/Labour Party and the informed public. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
thetimes.com
Angela Rayner condemns Labour’s migrant visa crackdown
Speaking before the party conference, the housing secretary says Shabana Mahmood’s immigration plans would affect care workers
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 25/09/2026
I have blamed The agents That hacked Your website And which You probably Reasonably thought I controlled Forgive me I am rich And unaccustomed To taking responsibility
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