Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 18hCentral banks always think interest rate rates operate on demand. But what if tighter policy makes people want to work more? That labour supply effect can be large. People with high debts worked more when Australia tightened, for example My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/a060... 2185
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/09/2026Important to note that ONS is now doing the right thing and trying to find the truth. This is nothing like the 2010s when it actively sought not to change stats (RPI) that it knew were wrong 3317
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/09/2026After the ONS cast all my article about the UK productivity puzzle onto the scrap heap, it has now downgraded all articles on the UK’s weak jobs recovery after Covid to junk too…. 😖 www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...ons.gov.ukInvestigating non-response to the Labour Force Survey using administrative data - Office for National StatisticsUsing Pay As You Earn data to identify and adjust for potential employment-related non-response to the Labour Force Survey. These are not official statistics. 11493
Reposted by Chris GilesHetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Reasons to be a little cheerful from @chrisgiles.ft.com. The piece also contains the comforting line ‘Britain is internationally far less useless than it appeared.’! www.ft.com/content/c819... 14310
Reposted by Chris GilesMiranda Green @greenmirandahere.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Rarely am I able to recommend an FT column that ends with "happy days" for the UK - but @chrisgiles.ft.com came through for us with this www.ft.com/content/c819...ft.comWhy your holiday is good news for the UKFor once we should thank the Office for National Statistics for its productivity reporting 0255
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 23/09/2026Had some fun talking to @timharford.ft.com on More or Less about whether people not at home might actually be on holiday www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...bbc.co.ukMore or Less - Has the UK’s productivity puzzle been solved? - BBC SoundsTim Harford investigates bad productivity data, AI carbon, nuns and quiet album ends. 3459
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 22/09/2026With Kevin Warsh boycotting the dot plot, it must be dying... My newsletter asks whether we should mourn? Probably not, but not because it locks people into their forecasts - it doesn't www.ft.com/content/ba73... 1112
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/09/2026Was it though? Sounds awfully like the bores of Piddington 191
Reposted by Chris GilesNational Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 19/09/2026#WeekendWatching 📺 Did you miss our webinar on measuring #productivity yesterday? Watch it back here: A stellar panel with with a stellar chair: James Benford, @teraallas.bsky.social, Richard Hughes, and @chrisgiles.ft.com ⬇️ niesr.ac.uk/event/uks-pr...niesr.ac.ukIs the UK's Productivity Revival Real, or a Measurement Illusion? - NIESROn 17 September, the ONS will publish its new component-based approach to measuring hours worked. This webinar discusses the implications of the new methodology and what it means for policymakers. 063
Reposted by Chris GilesTony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 17/09/2026And on 1), the fact that it was the prior intention means it's important to follow through, absent some v good reason, to avoid validating the suspicion that QE was a permanent monetary financing. 181
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/09/2026The BoE, HMT, DMO decision to unwind quantatitive easing completely is NOT something to get worked up by, however tempting. 1) This was always the intention (see Mervyn King 2009) 2) It has tiny fiscal effects (nothing like George Osborne's 2012 gambit, which ONS stopped after my complaints). 1155
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/09/2026Today in the occasional series "we learnt something we really should have known", the Office for National Statistics learnt that people generally don't answer surveys if they are on holiday 14610
Reposted by Chris GilesTony Tassell @tonytassell.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Big day at the FT - celebrating the 80th birthday of the great Martin Wolf. He has been with the FT for 39 yrs and will be here for a few more years yet. What people might not know is what an incredible colleague he is -so supportive and interested in all colleagues. He wants to hear from everyone 626719
Reposted by Chris GilesKatie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 14/09/20265% on the 10Ystatic.klipy.com 48915
Reposted by Chris GilesEnough Of That Now @andygilder.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Trump becomes the first orange man to support a united Ireland 682127573
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 10/09/2026My column: I am intolerant of lazy stereotypes, accusing Europeans of being work-shy layabouts, degenerately dependent on welfare instead of doing an honest day’s work Europe doesn't need a crisis, it needs more successful gradual reform www.ft.com/content/362b... 06915
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 08/09/2026Finally, UK appoints a national statistician, poaching André Loranger from Canada... "Gather, guard, grow, give" is his vision for statistics www.youtube.com/watch?v=6720...youtube.comESCoE Conference 2026: André Loranger keynote interviewYouTube video by Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence 2259
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 08/09/2026Donald Trump might say silly things and appear to put the Fed under pressure... ... In fact there are more interesting connections between fiscal and monetary policy than crude fiscal dominance in a high debt world www.ft.com/content/dda7... 0223
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 26/08/2026Column "Make no mistake, the US is suffering a debt crisis. It is, of course, not an acute emergency like Argentina’s...but it has the characteristics of a chronic disaster that everyone can see coming but the administration never does enough to avoid." www.ft.com/content/7588... 85418
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026Family in position. Beers and crisps. Suddenly rural Spain seems to have people 1390
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026It’s Spain. It’s scorcio. And I’ve got my planned spot for the eclipse 6967
Reposted by Chris GilesDario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Great piece by @chrisgiles.ft.com on the Warsh inconsistencies. The Anna Wong response he quotes still astounds me... how can you praise a Fed chair for what is basically just spin? 3164
Reposted by Chris GilesGiles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 04/08/2026giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... "The Fed chair likes to praise financial markets, regardless of what they say; does not offer substantive economic explanations; is not overly concerned about logic and consistency" @chrisgiles.ft.com does to Warsh what Emily Wilson did to The Odesseygiftarticle.ft.comThe Federal Reserve goes WackoWarsh’s Awful Communications: Knowingly Opaque. Also in this newsletter, the BoE shows how it’s done 13717
Reposted by Chris GilesA Reader of the FT @a-reader-ft.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Whatever happened to prudence?-This year’s energy subsidies signify more than countries being unwilling to heed IMF advice. They are just the latest example in a growing international trend… www.ft.com/content/2d12... @chrisgiles.ft.com @financialtimes.comft.comWhatever happened to prudence?Governments have stopped correcting budget deficits but — so far — bond markets have let them 141
Reposted by Chris GilesKarl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Devastatingly accurate diagnosis in @chrisgiles.ft.com latest: tinyurl.com/mvnbmvzs 0164
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 04/08/2026The Fed goes WACKO: Warsh's Awful Communication: Knowingly Opaque Coming across as obtuse is a dangerous for unelected economic institutions My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/cbc7... 211616
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 31/07/2026The ambitions of UK governments is decreasing. Instead of "kickstarting" growth... the new government is only claiming to have "begun to kickstart" growth. 281
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 29/07/2026Very glad to report: Humans 1, AI 0 What a load of rubbish from our silicon Warsh www.ft.com/content/76b4...ft.comThe LLM FOMC votes to raiseSilicon Warsh is a hawk 1143
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/07/2026Since Kevin Warsh boasted about how volatility, bond yields and inflation expectations had fallen since he was sworn in... ... they have all reversed Perhaps, not such a genius 0268
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/07/2026Energy prices appear to be in a wide bounded equilibrium, but it is unstable... My newsletter www.ft.com/content/c1b2... 1196
Reposted by Chris GilesPaul Johnson @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social · 21/07/2026Agree with all this excellent advice from @chrisgiles.ft.com - don’t try to cut inflation through subsidies - don’t use accounting fiddles to raise defence spending - don’t use “flexibility” in fiscal rules - do focus on whole economy, not manufacturing - don’t heap even more tax on high earners 33212
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026should avoid. Number 1 is something the new PM seems unable to grasp... www.ft.com/content/9df2... 5333
Reposted by Chris GilesTim Harford @timharford.ft.com · 21/07/2026Six foolish mistakes for the UK's chancellor to avoid - @chrisgiles.ft.com is watching and so are the bond markets as.ft.com/r/1f24e446-0...as.ft.comSix foolish mistakes for the UK’s new chancellor to avoidJohn Healey will be under pressure on many fronts, but bear-pits are lurking . . . 2195
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026Will Japan's potential massive fiscal stimulus create a Honebuto-Shokku? (which is roughly translated into English as a Liz Truss moment) My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/da40... 1458
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 20/07/2026So...ONS must be unhappy with me. They've sent me a survey to complete... Hopefully it will "shape tomorrow" 3151
Reposted by Chris GilesTony Tassell @tonytassell.bsky.social · 20/07/2026Kevin Warsh wants the Fed to be more circumspect in communicating, believing more explicit guidance has raised complacency in markets. But Warsh's shift comes at an awkward time. FT Big Read here by @senojerialc.bsky.social @chrisgiles.ft.com @kateduguid.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/a02a...ft.comThe new Fed boss is tight-lipped. That might upset the marketsThe new US central bank chief is reluctant to signal future interest rate moves — how will hedge funds react? 1105
Reposted by Chris GilesMax Nathan @maxnathan.bsky.social · 10/07/2026Against the Devolution Theory of Everything. Good stuff by @chrisgiles.ft.com giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...giftarticle.ft.comDevolution has no easy answers on ‘fairness’The consensus backing more local power sharing rarely confronts fundamental trade-offs 392
Reposted by Chris GilesEconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 07/07/2026I am too young to know all this. AND WOW~ "The third anecdote on transparency is simply the procedure the BoE adopted under King for announcing a decision. Take the November 2006 meeting as a random example. (1/3) 121
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 07/07/2026If kevin Warsh wants to avoid being caught with his pants down, he should avoid the BoE's communications from the 2000s... ...and confusing correlation and causation My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/8f35... 3288
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 01/07/2026Mervyn King and communications. A reminder from (contemporary) history. www.ft.com/content/f853...ft.comThe court of King MervynUnder Sir Mervyn King, the Bank of England has emerged as one of the world’s most powerful central banks 151
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 30/06/2026My central banks newsletter this week looks at the Supreme Court's rather thinner victory for Lisa Cook against Donald Trump than expected. Footnote 8 in the ruling is importantl she might well lose round 2. www.ft.com/content/c642... 2257
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 25/06/2026I struggle to understand the fascination with mainstream economists' (broadly accurate) Brexit forecasts... ... the leave forecasts on the other hand www.ft.com/content/f99c... 35418
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 10/06/2026One way of measuring UK productivity shows a remarkable upturn since Labour came to office.... ... so is the UK witnessing a productivity revival? www.ft.com/content/161a... 69842
Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 09/06/2026If Kevin Warsh has to choose between his legacy and Trump's ire, he should pick the latter...There is probably a route through the middle... But the oil shock is making things difficult as this Boston Fed research shows. My newsletter www.ft.com/content/2356... 1394