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Chris Giles

@chrisgiles.ft.com
27K followers 420 following 1K posts

Economics Commentator, Financial Times; Honorary Professor of Practice, UCL Policy Lab Sign up to my central banks newsletter here ep.ft.com/newsletters/subscribe?new…

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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 18h
Central banks always think interest rate rates operate on demand. But what if tighter policy makes people want to work more? That labour supply effect can be large. People with high debts worked more when Australia tightened, for example My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/a060...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/09/2026
Important to note that ONS is now doing the right thing and trying to find the truth. This is nothing like the 2010s when it actively sought not to change stats (RPI) that it knew were wrong
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/09/2026
After the ONS cast all my article about the UK productivity puzzle onto the scrap heap, it has now downgraded all articles on the UK’s weak jobs recovery after Covid to junk too…. 😖 www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
ons.gov.uk
Investigating non-response to the Labour Force Survey using administrative data - Office for National Statistics
Using Pay As You Earn data to identify and adjust for potential employment-related non-response to the Labour Force Survey. These are not official statistics.
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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Reasons to be a little cheerful from @chrisgiles.ft.com. The piece also contains the comforting line ‘Britain is internationally far less useless than it appeared.’! www.ft.com/content/c819...
The accuracy of the UK's official economic picture still falls far short of what an advanced nation should expect. But the performance of the ONS is on the up. The UK economy is not as weak as we have been told. We are just as rich as we thought, but are not working ourselves into the ground.
Happy days.
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Miranda Green @greenmirandahere.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Rarely am I able to recommend an FT column that ends with "happy days" for the UK - but @chrisgiles.ft.com came through for us with this www.ft.com/content/c819...
ft.com
Why your holiday is good news for the UK
For once we should thank the Office for National Statistics for its productivity reporting
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 23/09/2026
Had some fun talking to @timharford.ft.com on More or Less about whether people not at home might actually be on holiday www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
bbc.co.uk
More or Less - Has the UK’s productivity puzzle been solved? - BBC Sounds
Tim Harford investigates bad productivity data, AI carbon, nuns and quiet album ends.
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 22/09/2026
With Kevin Warsh boycotting the dot plot, it must be dying... My newsletter asks whether we should mourn? Probably not, but not because it locks people into their forecasts - it doesn't www.ft.com/content/ba73...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/09/2026
Was it though? Sounds awfully like the bores of Piddington
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National Institute of Economic and Social Research @niesrorg.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
#WeekendWatching 📺 Did you miss our webinar on measuring #productivity yesterday? Watch it back here: A stellar panel with with a stellar chair: James Benford, @teraallas.bsky.social, Richard Hughes, and @chrisgiles.ft.com ⬇️ niesr.ac.uk/event/uks-pr...
niesr.ac.uk
Is the UK's Productivity Revival Real, or a Measurement Illusion? - NIESR
On 17 September, the ONS will publish its new component-based approach to measuring hours worked. This webinar discusses the implications of the new methodology and what it means for policymakers.
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/09/2026
Continuation of a long-term trend
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Tony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
And on 1), the fact that it was the prior intention means it's important to follow through, absent some v good reason, to avoid validating the suspicion that QE was a permanent monetary financing.
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/09/2026
The BoE, HMT, DMO decision to unwind quantatitive easing completely is NOT something to get worked up by, however tempting. 1) This was always the intention (see Mervyn King 2009) 2) It has tiny fiscal effects (nothing like George Osborne's 2012 gambit, which ONS stopped after my complaints).
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 17/09/2026
Today in the occasional series "we learnt something we really should have known", the Office for National Statistics learnt that people generally don't answer surveys if they are on holiday
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Tony Tassell @tonytassell.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Big day at the FT - celebrating the 80th birthday of the great Martin Wolf. He has been with the FT for 39 yrs and will be here for a few more years yet. What people might not know is what an incredible colleague he is -so supportive and interested in all colleagues. He wants to hear from everyone
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 14/09/2026
5% on the 10Y
static.klipy.com
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Enough Of That Now @andygilder.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Trump becomes the first orange man to support a united Ireland
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 10/09/2026
My column: I am intolerant of lazy stereotypes, accusing Europeans of being work-shy layabouts, degenerately dependent on welfare instead of doing an honest day’s work Europe doesn't need a crisis, it needs more successful gradual reform www.ft.com/content/362b...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 08/09/2026
Finally, UK appoints a national statistician, poaching André Loranger from Canada... "Gather, guard, grow, give" is his vision for statistics www.youtube.com/watch?v=6720...
youtube.com
ESCoE Conference 2026: André Loranger keynote interview
YouTube video by Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 08/09/2026
Donald Trump might say silly things and appear to put the Fed under pressure... ... In fact there are more interesting connections between fiscal and monetary policy than crude fiscal dominance in a high debt world www.ft.com/content/dda7...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 06/09/2026
The first of many, I fear. Thanks Keir
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 26/08/2026
Column "Make no mistake, the US is suffering a debt crisis. It is, of course, not an acute emergency like Argentina’s...but it has the characteristics of a chronic disaster that everyone can see coming but the administration never does enough to avoid." www.ft.com/content/7588...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026
Absolutely mental
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026
Family in position. Beers and crisps. Suddenly rural Spain seems to have people
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026
First contact
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 12/08/2026
It’s Spain. It’s scorcio. And I’ve got my planned spot for the eclipse
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Dario Perkins @darioperkins.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Great piece by @chrisgiles.ft.com on the Warsh inconsistencies. The Anna Wong response he quotes still astounds me... how can you praise a Fed chair for what is basically just spin?
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 04/08/2026
I promise it’s considerably shorter
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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... "The Fed chair likes to praise financial markets, regardless of what they say; does not offer substantive economic explanations; is not overly concerned about logic and consistency" @chrisgiles.ft.com does to Warsh what Emily Wilson did to The Odessey
giftarticle.ft.com
The Federal Reserve goes Wacko
Warsh’s Awful Communications: Knowingly Opaque. Also in this newsletter, the BoE shows how it’s done
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A Reader of the FT @a-reader-ft.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Whatever happened to prudence?-This year’s energy subsidies signify more than countries being unwilling to heed IMF advice. They are just the latest example in a growing international trend… www.ft.com/content/2d12... @chrisgiles.ft.com @financialtimes.com
ft.com
Whatever happened to prudence?
Governments have stopped correcting budget deficits but — so far — bond markets have let them
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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
👏 @chrisgiles.ft.com
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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Devastatingly accurate diagnosis in @chrisgiles.ft.com latest: tinyurl.com/mvnbmvzs
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 04/08/2026
The Fed goes WACKO: Warsh's Awful Communication: Knowingly Opaque Coming across as obtuse is a dangerous for unelected economic institutions My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/cbc7...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 31/07/2026
The ambitions of UK governments is decreasing. Instead of "kickstarting" growth... the new government is only claiming to have "begun to kickstart" growth.
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 29/07/2026
Very glad to report: Humans 1, AI 0 What a load of rubbish from our silicon Warsh www.ft.com/content/76b4...
ft.com
The LLM FOMC votes to raise
Silicon Warsh is a hawk
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/07/2026
Since Kevin Warsh boasted about how volatility, bond yields and inflation expectations had fallen since he was sworn in... ... they have all reversed Perhaps, not such a genius
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 28/07/2026
Energy prices appear to be in a wide bounded equilibrium, but it is unstable... My newsletter www.ft.com/content/c1b2...
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Paul Johnson @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Agree with all this excellent advice from @chrisgiles.ft.com - don’t try to cut inflation through subsidies - don’t use accounting fiddles to raise defence spending - don’t use “flexibility” in fiscal rules - do focus on whole economy, not manufacturing - don’t heap even more tax on high earners
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026
should avoid. Number 1 is something the new PM seems unable to grasp... www.ft.com/content/9df2...
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Tim Harford @timharford.ft.com · 21/07/2026
Six foolish mistakes for the UK's chancellor to avoid - @chrisgiles.ft.com is watching and so are the bond markets as.ft.com/r/1f24e446-0...
as.ft.com
Six foolish mistakes for the UK’s new chancellor to avoid
John Healey will be under pressure on many fronts, but bear-pits are lurking . . .
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 21/07/2026
Will Japan's potential massive fiscal stimulus create a Honebuto-Shokku? (which is roughly translated into English as a Liz Truss moment) My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/da40...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 20/07/2026
So...ONS must be unhappy with me. They've sent me a survey to complete... Hopefully it will "shape tomorrow"
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Tony Tassell @tonytassell.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Kevin Warsh wants the Fed to be more circumspect in communicating, believing more explicit guidance has raised complacency in markets. But Warsh's shift comes at an awkward time. FT Big Read here by @senojerialc.bsky.social @chrisgiles.ft.com @kateduguid.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/a02a...
ft.com
The new Fed boss is tight-lipped. That might upset the markets
The new US central bank chief is reluctant to signal future interest rate moves — how will hedge funds react?
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Max Nathan @maxnathan.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Against the Devolution Theory of Everything. Good stuff by @chrisgiles.ft.com giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Devolution has no easy answers on ‘fairness’
The consensus backing more local power sharing rarely confronts fundamental trade-offs
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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
I am too young to know all this. AND WOW~ "The third anecdote on transparency is simply the procedure the BoE adopted under King for announcing a decision. Take the November 2006 meeting as a random example. (1/3)
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 07/07/2026
If kevin Warsh wants to avoid being caught with his pants down, he should avoid the BoE's communications from the 2000s... ...and confusing correlation and causation My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/8f35...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 01/07/2026
Mervyn King and communications. A reminder from (contemporary) history. www.ft.com/content/f853...
ft.com
The court of King Mervyn
Under Sir Mervyn King, the Bank of England has emerged as one of the world’s most powerful central banks
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 30/06/2026
My central banks newsletter this week looks at the Supreme Court's rather thinner victory for Lisa Cook against Donald Trump than expected. Footnote 8 in the ruling is importantl she might well lose round 2. www.ft.com/content/c642...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 25/06/2026
I struggle to understand the fascination with mainstream economists' (broadly accurate) Brexit forecasts... ... the leave forecasts on the other hand www.ft.com/content/f99c...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 10/06/2026
One way of measuring UK productivity shows a remarkable upturn since Labour came to office.... ... so is the UK witnessing a productivity revival? www.ft.com/content/161a...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 09/06/2026
If Kevin Warsh has to choose between his legacy and Trump's ire, he should pick the latter...There is probably a route through the middle... But the oil shock is making things difficult as this Boston Fed research shows. My newsletter www.ft.com/content/2356...
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