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Alfie Stirling

@alfie-stirling.bsky.social
1.9K followers 133 following 108 posts

Director of Insight & Policy at JRF | previously NEF & IPPR | "all models are wrong, but some are useful" (G Box)

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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The UK is at risk of sleepwalking into the worst parliament for disposable incomes on modern record. Government policy could make a big difference to how these effects play out, but the window to act is narrowing. New from @jrf-uk.bsky.social.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Always fascinating how the principle of diminishing returns quietly reverses itself in the politics of UK labour supply. If you want people with some money already to work more, you need to offer them a bit more. If you want people without much money to work more, you need to take some away.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Brilliant new opportunity at @jrf-uk.bsky.social, leading our energy and housing policy teams at an exciting time. Do reach out if of interest! jrf.octo-firstclass.co.uk/candidates/c...
jrf.octo-firstclass.co.uk
Octo Candidates - Application Form - Vacancy Details
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Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
'More fundamentally, it begs the question: what sort of country do we want to live in?' 📺 Director of Policy @alfie-stirling.bsky.social was on @bbc-politics.bsky.social Live today, commenting on what the impact of Conservative proposals to cut Universal Credit would mean for those on low incomes 🔽
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Some good thinking covered in this piece from @hettieobrien.bsky.social. Though an important part of the case for direct support from government on the cost of living is that it is highly *supportive* of growth, not a substitute for it. 1/
theguardian.com
Labour’s last chance? The people shaping Andy Burnham’s grand plans for Britain
The long read: The new prime minister has declared he wants to end 40 years of neoliberalism. But is he really prepared to be that radical?
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
During the 12 months up to September 2024, real earnings grew by nearly 2.5%. In the nearly two years since then, real earnings have barely grown at all.
A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation.  The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year.  This latter period is in contrast to the periods starting September 2024 and September 2025, during which both periods growth has hovered around zero.  Between September 2023 and July 2024, wages grew 2.1%, but in the same period a year and two years later, they grew just 0.2%, around a tenth of the rate.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
When pay runs out before the end of the week, it's irrelevant whether the next thing you need costs 50p or £50. Before getting in an arithmetic tangle over 50p>0, pause instead on what you would do if one week you had to choose between feeding your kids or brushing their teeth.
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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Good from @alfie-stirling.bsky.social on the potential for implicit monetary-fiscal coordination: lower fuel bills means less pressure on the Bank to raise interest rates. Implementation matters of course: incentives to move away from fossil fuels are essential. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Andy Burnham promised urgent action on the cost of living; the heat is now on chancellor John Healey to deliver it | Alfie Stirling
The PM and the new boss at the Treasury face an even trickier task than their predecessors. They need a good plan, and we have one, says Alfie Sirling of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
"Voters were promised a “change” chancellor once already – both they, and the new prime minister, really need one now." www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Andy Burnham promised urgent action on the cost of living; the heat is now on chancellor John Healey to deliver it | Alfie Stirling
The PM and the new boss at the Treasury face an even trickier task than their predecessors. They need a good plan, and we have one, says Alfie Sirling of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
NEW. The £ impact on UK families from conflict in the Middle East modelled for first time. On avg. families to see disposable income (after housing costs) fall by 1.7% (~£740/yr), 2024-2029. Worst outlook at any point since general election, and would be the worst parliament on modern record. 1/
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
BREAKING Bond markets appear to be pricing on interest rate expectations, not politics. www.ft.com/content/a08d...
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Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
🚨 NEW! Our report out today concludes rent controls can ease the pressure on renters, without jeopardising the private rented sector. A rent control could: - Make renters nearly £1200 a year better off by 2030 - Reduce the housing benefit bill by £600m, even with annual LHA uprating Here's how 👇
Cover slide for JRF's 'Ending the rent squeeze' programme of work, with an image of some flats over an oatmeal and pink background with a JRF logo in the bottom left corner
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Brilliant policy role at @jrf-uk.bsky.social currently live, at a particularly exciting time for the organisation's work. Lead two multidisciplinary teams, work and care, respectively. Do take a look, share and feel free to reach out to us if of interest. jrf.octo-firstclass.co.uk/candidates/c...
jrf.octo-firstclass.co.uk
Octo Candidates - Application Form - Vacancy Details
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
The headlines are focused on a 5-year high for unemployment. But the other story is incredibly weak real earnings. Monthly numbers are volatile, especially when including bonuses, but it's a sign of how bad it has been that 15 months of real growth can be wiped out by one month's volatility. 1/
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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
A new way to explore UK Poverty data ⬇️ Poverty is deepening. Developing solutions to tackle this problem starts with clear, accessible evidence. To make our data more accessible we’ve published all charts, maps and tables from our UK Poverty 2026 in a new, interactive dashboard.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Definitive table of what Government decided to spend it's new tax receipts on. 3/5: Reducing debt and borrowing. 2/5: Making people better off. Of which: 1/5: U-turn on things making people worse off. 1/5: Actually making people better off. #Budget2025
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Real average weekly earnings have risen by £2 in the past year.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
"More wage growth in first 10 months of Labour than in first 10 years of Conservatives" is true only on a technicality, due to Covid. The reality is wages have been terrible for 15 years and the present government are reproducing the average almost perfectly. That's also what people are feeling.
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Kate Alexander-Shaw @katealexandershaw.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
A must-read this morning - JRF's @alfie-stirling.bsky.social on the crisis in UK living standards, and how politicians can (and must) respond
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
There has been essentially no growth in real wages for 10 months.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
The latest OBR forecasts suggest the average family may end the current parliament financially worse off than they were at the start. That's unlikely to be a survivable record to defend at the ballot box, but there may be a way to turn it around. New piece from me for Political Quarterly.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Before the Boil: Addressing the UK's Living Standards Crisis
The UK faces a crisis in living standards. The current outlook for real disposable incomes is unprecedented, including rising inequality and the risk of a first parliament on record where the average...
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Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
New report: Taxing landlords more is good, actually. Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants. A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
Two fab economist roles currently going at @jrf-uk.bsky.social, do get in touch if you have any questions!
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
How can you tell when a country is over adjusting for financial markets reaction/fiscal rules? When you see that had Trump announced tariffs just a few weeks earlier, it could have avoided billions in permanent cuts to low income disabled people.
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Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
🗣️ "This is particularly painful for the lowest income families." Our Director of Insight and Policy, @alfie-stirling.bsky.social spoke to @news.sky.com this morning about the impacts the range of bill increases coming into effect today will have on people's living standards.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social. Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances. Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse. We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today. Thread. #SpringStatement
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Maudie Johnson-Hunter @maudiejh.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
OBR's measure of living standards, RHDI, is up by £500 - largely due to stronger wage growth, including planning reforms which boost incomes. BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home). 1/3
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
This from the OBR on Real Household Disposable Income is key. Living standards, by their measure, are flattered by non-tangible 'imputed rent' -- that's very much *not* the stuff of "pounds in people's pockets". And even with this included, overall government policy has lowered living standards.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
The past year could prove the high point of the parliament for living standards.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
In case anyone was wondering, this is what it looks like visually.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 22/03/2025
NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social Much has been made of the pressure on public finances. Household finances remain the elephant in the room. If OBR adjust their Mar forecast in line with the BoE in Feb, it will see the average family £1,400/yr worse off by 2030, compared with today. Thread.
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Katie Schmuecker @katieschmuecker.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Today’s Green Paper contains a welcome acknowledgement that the basic rate of benefits is inadequate. Steps have been announced to increase it, but it’s not quite as good as it seems for 2 reasons….
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Sarah O'Connor @sarahoconnorft.ft.com · 18/03/2025
Not sure about this from the IFS. In the real world, I'm not convinced that changing an incredibly miserly income of £4,732 per year to a still-miserly £5,096 per year is going to persuade people, who would otherwise have got a job, that they're now so financially comfortable, they're not going to.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
The government has pledged to deliver "higher living standards", move from "treatment to prevention" and from "hospital to community". Cutting billions from health related social security drives a coach and horses through all three.
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Iain Porter @iainkporter.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Yesterday, a Government press release claimed the number of people “considered too sick to work” had "quadrupled" since the pandemic (a "383% rise"). This is incorrect. In fact, it’s not even close. It's more like 40%. This thread explains why 🧵1/7
Image of Government press release stating a "383% rise in less than five years" in the number of people considered too sick to look for work.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Turns out "one fiscal event a year" meant spending cuts twice a year, and tax rises once a year.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
www.lbc.co.uk/opinion/view...
lbc.co.uk
Our welfare system is morally indefensible - but not like Keir Starmer thinks
The Prime Minister reportedly told his MPs yesterday that the UK welfare system is morally indefensible.
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Craig Berry @craigpberry.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Looking ahead to the disability benefits green paper, this essay for @citizensadvice.bsky.social makes the case for a system focused on improving health outcomes. Co-authors @maddyirose.bsky.social, @victoria-anns.bsky.social & Simon Collerton We challenge the 5 big falsehoods underpinning cuts…🧵
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
The speed at which US-Russia relations have gone from Cold War-esque to Molotov-Ribbentrop-esque is dizzying www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Putin offers Russian and Ukrainian rare minerals to US
The proposal to give the US access to minerals would also include those from territories taken from Ukraine.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
NEW First of three papers in a major study from @nprcoxford.bsky.social and @jrf-uk.bsky.social. TLDR - The credibility of all political parties in tackling household economic insecurity looks set to be one of the crucial dividing lines of the parliament. www.theguardian.com/business/202... 1/
theguardian.com
Labour losing support fastest among voters worried over finances, study finds
Poverty charity urges Keir Starmer to focus on living standards instead of culture wars and immigration
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Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Labour's support in the opinion polls is rapidly declining as unhappy voters look for alternatives. But why is this happening? Our latest study by election experts at @nprcoxford.bsky.social reveals who are switching parties 🔽 1/6
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Some thoughts from me on our new report for @jrf-uk.bsky.social today: www.lbc.co.uk/opinion/view...
lbc.co.uk
Forget immigration - the real threat to Labour's future is economic angst
When Labour came into power in July 2024, instead of a political honeymoon, their support has dwindled.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
Under the UK's current policy settings, 'growth' alone is unlikely to address poverty.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
The UK's big problem isn't bond market toddler tantrums, it's the growing risk of medium-term 'stagflation' - low growth, high inflation. (Incidentally that's also what's making the toddlers irritable in the first place.) 1/
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Chris Birt @cdbirt.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
Just giving these two roles a boost again. Still plenty of time to apply. Make 2025 a brilliant year - come join us!
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Abby Jitendra @abbyabhaya.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
I’m hiring! You’ll be leading big policy projects to transform the labour market. Think tackling low pay & exploitation, collective bargaining, making work family friendly… We’re running a webinar next Wednesday at midday where you can find out more.
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Chris Birt @cdbirt.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
Not sure how many folk in Northern Ireland follow me on here but... 📢We are about to advertise for two further jobs in our new Northern Ireland Team. 1️⃣ - A Senior Policy Adviser 2️⃣ - A Senior Analyst Adverts will go out tomorrow but closing date not until mid Jan so plenty of time.
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
We're looking for a talented macro economist and UK fiscal policy expert to lead a new programme of work at @jrf-uk.bsky.social Please do share, and drop me a line if you'd like to chat! jrf.octo-firstclass.co.uk/candidates/c...
jrf.octo-firstclass.co.uk
Octo Candidates - Application Form - Vacancy Details
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Alfie Stirling @alfie-stirling.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
A welcome shift in emphasis from GDP to 'living standards' (disposable incomes) from government today. Two key things missing in their formal target though: 1. Housing costs - currently rising faster than real incomes. 2. The distributional - inequality currently set to rise.
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