Sign in

Stuart McDonald

@actuarybyday.bsky.social
6.7K followers 624 following 944 posts

Analysis of health and mortality data. Actuary. Partner at LCP. Chair of the CMI. MBE for services to Public Health.

PostsRepliesMedia
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Shocking new ONS statistics underline the urgency of the PM's focus on homelessness. c1,000 homeless people died in 2025. The 2nd consecutive year at that level. Most of these deaths were men in their 40s & 50s. Around a third were a direct result of drug poisoning. www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...
0136
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Why must I lose to this idiot? @wmiltti.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
The maximum human lifespan is almost exactly 1 million hours - only around 100 people have lived longer.
0112
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
It looks like there may have been around 1,000 additional deaths in England and Wales during the August heatwave. The chart shows deaths occurring in each week of 2025 and 2026. I've added an estimate of deaths which have not yet been registered, and marked heatwave weeks with red borders. 1/3
12111
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The CMI has published its latest analysis of age-standardised death rates in England and Wales. Despite the summer heatwaves, the year-to-date mortality rate for 2026 is significantly lower than any previous year. Deaths from flu and pneumonia especially low. www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files...
1306
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
By way of illustration, look how clearly the heatwave stands out in week 33 of 2025. Then note that deaths have been at that same level in four of the last five weeks. The simplified 5-week average I’ve used as illustration here doesn’t work well when heatwaves keep coming week after week.
073
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
National Trust @nationaltrust.org.uk · 12/08/2026
ANNOUNCEMENT: All our sundials will be out of order this evening between about 6pm and 8pm, we apologise for any inconvenience this may cause. Normal service will resume tomorrow. In unrelated news, enjoy the eclipse later... Photos: Mike Selby, Annapurna Mellor, Chris Davies, John Millar
A wall-mounted sundial inside a walled garden. Text on the sundial reads: "fear god, obey ye king"A traditional sundial on a plinth, formal gardens surround itThe sun beams down on a traditional sundial, with heather visible in the backgroundA shot of a sundial from above. It's mounted on a stone plinth. Text on the side reads "KEW BRIDGE"
201711458
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
An update on the impact of the summer heatwaves on deaths in England & Wales. The chart shows deaths occurring in each week of 2025 and 2026 in dark blue. I've added an estimate of deaths which have not yet been registered in lighter blue, and marked heatwave weeks with red borders. 1/4
12811
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Paul Brand @paulbrand.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Burnham announces: 1. Casey will bring forward her review by a year to summer 2027. He wants it to focus on creating a National Care Service that is ‘highly integrated’ with the NHS. 2. He will look at improving pay and progression of social care workforce. 3. Cross party talks to begin today.
2534580
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 28/07/2026
I'm interested in finding and potentially supporting people who are interested in doing long-form writing on the big efforts in global health: Gavi, Global Fund, PEPFAR, etc. If this is you or someone you know, please make yourself known!
58174
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
With each passing week the impact of the summer heatwaves on deaths becomes clearer. The chart shows deaths occurring in each week of 2025 and 2026 in dark blue. I've added an estimate of deaths which have not yet been registered in lighter blue, and marked heatwave weeks with red borders. 1/4
33413
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Jean Fisch @jeanfisch.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
@statbel-en.bsky.social released the Belgian death data up to 5/7 and, as in France, the heat wave had a huge effect on the 45-64 age band In fact, this age band saw higher weekly deaths than at any moment of the pandemic (and probably since WWII) A few more comments below 1/
283
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Only 12 words matter in this forecast of global obesity trends! "the effects of pharmaceuticals such as GLP-1R agonists may alter these trends". www.theactuary.com/2026/07/23/o...
theactuary.com
030
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
With the release of today's data the impact of the UK summer heatwaves is becoming increasingly clear. Deaths were unusually high for the time of year during the May and June heatwaves, and unusually low during the weeks in between. Need to wait a few more weeks to see the impact of July heatwave.
2214
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
News outlets are leading with modelling suggesting 2,700 people may have died from heat-related causes during recent heatwaves. And yet recent death rates are the lowest on record. A short thread on what recent mortality data actually tells us. Spoiler: not much! 1/5 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Thousands will have died in UK's unprecedented May and June heatwaves
An early estimate suggests more than 2,700 people will have died from heat-related causes during the UK's exceptionally hot weather in recent months.
13317
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
The last 3 items on our Alexa shopping list are: - Vegan - Jerry’s - Two tubs of Ben So no, I’m still not all that worried about the AI jobocalypse.
0130
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Steve Webb @stevewebb1.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
I wonder why the Govt issued its decision not to compensate WASPI women at 5pm? www.gov.uk/government/p...
gov.uk
Government’s new decision: Women’s State Pension age communications
462
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
How long are you likely to live? And what are your chances of making it to 100? Today ONS published projections of life expectancy (LE) by age and sex. That means an update to their interactive LE calculator. Enter your age and sex for your LE, chance of making it to pension age, age 90 and 100.
3124
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Deaths rates in 2026 remain remarkably low, well below 2025's record low. Interesting question for actuaries is the extent to which this is indicative of the future, or whether the loss of the most frail during the pandemic means that rates are artificially low at the moment. Good news anyway!
53410
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Healthy life expectancy probably doesn't mean what you think it means. Often cited in the State Pension Age debate, recent headlines suggest we’re spending fewer years in good health - but there is a risk of misinterpreting these findings. This @financialtimes.com chart helps explain why.
Chart shows trends in mental and physical health for ages 16-34, 35-44, 45-54 and 55plus. Mental declining for all groups but biggest impact in younger age bands. Physical health relatively stable for all age groups.
2196
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
A landmark day! The Tobacco and Vapes Bill received Royal Assent. It is now illegal to sell tobacco to anyone born from 2009. Our analysis found that 18-year-olds who never smoke could spend around a decade longer in good health than those who start smoking at 18 and remain lifelong smokers.
174
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Includes comments from me on the impact on healthcare and pensions. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
More UK deaths than births expected every year from now on
The UK population is expected to grow at a slower rate than previously thought owing to a sharp fall in migration and declining fertility rates
073
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Today’s ONS projections show the UK population ageing further over the next decade, with pensioner numbers rising faster than the working-age population even after State Pension age increases to 67. That will add to pressure on the NHS, the State Pension and the wider public finances.
ons.gov.uk
National population projections - Office for National Statistics
The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. These statistics are widely used in planning, including fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.
2166
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Alastair Meeks @alastairmeeks.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
A nice companion piece to @actuarybyday.bsky.social's post yesterday. bsky.app/profile/actu...
122
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
If the UK were a US state, how would it rank? It depends entirely on what you measure! Fascinating table showing a startlingly different picture depending on the choice of metric. Source: www.linkedin.com/posts/diogo-...
19311154
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Great to see this landmark bill agreed, with the prospect of a truly smoke-free generation, and more limitations on vaping. Smoking remains a major cause of ill health and early death and contributes to persistent health and life expectancy inequalities. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Smoking ban for people born after 2008 in the UK agreed
The
0103
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 18/04/2026
Death rates for cervical cancer in the United Kingdom have fallen by 80% since 1950— Cervical cancer death rates among women in the United Kingdom have fallen by around 80% since 1950. You can see this reduction in the chart. This progress happened for a couple of key reasons.
Line chart of reported cervical cancer deaths per 100,000 women in the United Kingdom from 1950 to 2021 where the rate falls from about 8.6 deaths per 100,000 in 1950 to about 1.7 in 2021, an approximately 80% decline.
219356
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
If I were a government minister and I had a magic wand, I think 'make people more aware of pensions and how they work' is the thing that solves so many political problems.
4756064
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Are resident doctors still underpaid? The BMA’s case for industrial action is undermined by the way the union uses data. 1/6 www.thetimes.com/article/895f...
3107
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
New CMI report on death rates in the first 3 months of 2026. Death rates were at record lows this winter! Based on death registrations, every week of 2026 saw death rates at or below the corresponding week of 2025, which itself had record low mortality. (1/3) www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-de...
1196
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Jamie O'Halloran @jamie-ohalloran.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
What's one of the best ways to measure population health? We'd argue it's Healthy Life Expectancy - capturing not just how long we live, but how many of those years are spent in good health. New figures are out today. The picture isn't good. At a national level, England's HLE continues to fall.
A graph showing a negative trend in HLE
11913
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Shocking chart alert! Patients waiting over 12 hours in A&E in England hit a new record high in January, exceeding 70,000 for the first time. In the past, it was rare for this number to exceed 1,000. This is only counting the waiting time after the decision has been made to admit the patient.
13116
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
The CMI have released their first mortality monitor of 2026. Based on death registrations, death rates in each of the first 5 weeks of 2026 were lower than last year. Mortality year to date in 2026 is equal to the best years on record. www.actuaries.org.uk/learn-and-de...
Weekly standardised mortality rates in England & Wales; based on the week the death was registered.
1132
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Is life expectancy still increasing in the UK? A short thread on why experts have come to different conclusions in recent years but why I think the latest data clearly shows an underlying trend of increasing #longevity. 1/6
Age-standardised mortality rates for England and Wales, 2011 to 2025.  A linear trendline is fitted with a corridor around it to account for annual volatility. Other than 2020 and 2021, all years are within the corridor.
3167
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
It won’t be popular with everyone but this has to be the correct decision. Government can’t pay billions in compensation to a wealthy cohort just because a few of them ignored the news for 15-20 years. Most can’t say what they’d have done differently with more notice. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Ministers reject Waspi calls for compensation after rethink
Women hit by changes to the state pension age say the decision shows
2317
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
If only there were some kind of useful lesson here about deploying more senior skills in triage outside of strike periods www.ft.com/content/c928...
One hospital boss who did not wish to be named noted that A&E "works so much better when there is a strike" because of more confident decision-making by the consultants.
Another health leader said that, while the strike had carried "significant risk... the impact of having senior decision makers at all points through the hospital means that actually hospitals went into this Christmas with a lower level of bed occupancy than we've seen for years".
1129686
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
GLP-1 drugs are grabbing headlines for weight loss, but the real story is the social dividend of a healthier population. Obesity costs the UK health system £11bn a year. A healthier population could reduce strain on NHS budgets & waiting lists. But interventions to keep people well are undervalued.
271
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Hospital admissions with flu are back at "low" levels in England. www.gov.uk/government/s...
0344
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Paul Mainwood @paulmainwood.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
One of those quiet, incremental, good news stories that contributes to the ultra-long-term trend of the human condition getting better. Note also that in 2025, the small-but-early flu wave didn't do much to offset the progress.
1228
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
For all of those who - think we are still in the middle of a raging pandemic 😷 - believe conspiracies about the covid vaccines 🤡 I have some more data for you to ignore or explain away
2184
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
The CMI has released its analysis of 2025 mortality in England & Wales. Death rates for 2025 were nearly 2% lower than 2024, the previous record low. Death rates improved (i.e. fell) for both sexes and in all age groups between 2024 and 2025.
Cumulative standardised mortality rates compared to a 2015-2024 average. 2025 death rates significantly lower than 2019 and 2024, the next lowest. Other years higher, especially 2020, 2021 and 2015.
36624
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Prof Christina Pagel @chrischirp.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
It was not a super flu year and why I think government and NHS messaging was wrong and counterproductive - my latest post christinapagel.substack.com/p/it-was-not...
christinapagel.substack.com
It was not a super flu year
Update on flu and covid in England
920471
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
The BMJ @bmj.com · 06/01/2026
Despite repeated doom-mongering, flu case numbers reached a plateau and have been falling steadily since mid-December. Just how bad is the current flu season is and are warnings it could be the worst in decades sensationalist? www.bmj.com/content/392/...
Flu positivity graph
297
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Don't say 'I told you so' Stuart, it's unedifying. 'Superflu' looking very much like normal flu. Worst flu season since... last year.
35113
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
It was great to have the chance to contribute to the BBC 'More or Less' special series, 'the stats of the nation' yesterday. We focussed on health and life expectancy in the UK, and the challenges facing the NHS. 1/3 www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
bbc.co.uk
More or Less - The Stats of the Nation - Health - BBC Sounds
Tim Harford explores the numbers that help explain the state of health and the NHS.
1213
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
How do you perceive probability-based phrases? Take the quiz and see how you compare with the 500+ others who've done it so far...
285
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
ChatGPT is getting in on the 'your year wrapped' fad. Hard to argue with its take on my 2025! 𝐹𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟, 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐺𝐿𝑃‑1𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑜𝑚𝑒ℎ𝑜𝑤 𝑚𝑎𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑔𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑝 𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑦. I can't promise to be much different in 2026. Anyway, happy New Year!
170
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 28/12/2025
New post! There was a lot of innovation in medicine and biomedical research this year, and I've tried to summarize the biggest ones in this blogpost. Medical breakthroughs in 2025. Plus a serious note at the end. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/medical-br...
scientificdiscovery.dev
Medical breakthroughs in 2025
... and a happy new year.
14261113
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Brilliant! “It’s unaffordable but also it’s not generous enough and we should not reform it” perfectly encapsulates the cognitive dissonance in public attitudes towards the State Pension!
1212
Reposted by Stuart McDonald
Dave West @ HSJ @davewwest.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
A (positive) pre-Christmas flu update, thanks to UKHSA for publishing a day early RSV (mostly affects the very young and very old) at a fairly high rate & some signs it is still rising, though
083
Stuart McDonald @actuarybyday.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Flu numbers barely changed since last week and still in the medium band. Of course it is still possible that it spikes higher over the Christmas period but that doesn't seem the most likely outcome. Admissions with flu are considerably lower than 2022/23 peak.
2236