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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

👀As you may have heard by now, the latest @yougov.co.uk MRP is coming out early tomorrow morning! It’s our first intervention since September 2025, when we showed Reform within touching distance of a majority. What will tomorrow’s model show? Set your alarms for 0600 and find out 😉

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

So how did we get here, with Starmer on the way out after two years? To some extent, it does go back to the beginning. It was not an enthusiastic victory for Labour. Getting rid of the Tories was the top reason people voted for them in 2024, though with their message of 'Change' also resonating.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

@yougov.co.uk built the best MRP model of the 2026 Welsh Senedd election, and one of (if not *the*) best model of the 2026 Holyrood elections. I’m very proud of the team’s achievements and YouGov’s continued, worldwide record of election success!

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Neal Hockley @nealhockley.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

This by @patrick-pme.bsky.social is worth re-upping. Debates whether Lab shld swing left or right miss that most swing voters want the same thing: competent govt that feels like it's doing stuff. Deliverism wld win back votes from both Greens & Reform patrickenglish.substack.com/p/should-lab...

patrickenglish.substack.com

Should Labour move left or right?

Neither? The situation Labour face today looks so similar to that which faced the Conservatives in 2024.

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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

"There is little to no statistical relationship between Reform performance and Labour performance, but a very strong (negative) relationship between Labour and Green performance." @patrick-pme.bsky.social

patrickenglish.substack.com

Local elections analysis: Labour struggled more versus the Greens than Reform

Locals give fresh evidence on how the 2024 Labour coalition is breaking apart

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Excellent analysis from my BBC elections team colleague and YouGov data guru @patrick-pme.bsky.social on what the local elections data tells us about whether Labour is losing more to Greens or Reform. Spoiler alert: its the Greens open.substack.com/pub/patricke...

open.substack.com

Local elections analysis: Labour struggled more versus the Greens than Reform

Locals give fresh evidence on how the 2024 Labour coalition is breaking apart

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Some more rigorous analysis from @patrick-pme.bsky.social confirming this earlier mid-results hot take: bsky.app/profile/robf...

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

I’ve written up a Substack all about how the results from this year’s local elections suggest that the Greens are a bigger threat to Labour’s vote than Reform. We had evidence of this from the polling, and now it’s been reflected in election data. patrickenglish.substack.com/p/local-elec...

patrickenglish.substack.com

Local elections analysis: Labour struggled more versus the Greens than Reform

Locals give fresh evidence on how the 2024 Labour coalition is breaking apart

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John Rentoul @rentouljohn.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

BBC Projected National Share of the vote via @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and change from last year Reform 26% -4 Green 18% +7 Labour 17% -3 Conservative 17% +2 Lib Dems 16% -1

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Greens fall just short in Lambeth, but become the largest party. Labour down by 28, losing almost 60%. London tells a very different story regarding Labour performances and defences in later results versus earlier ones. Mostly driven by there being more Green challenges in later declarations.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Here we go! We at @yougov.co.uk have projected how the race is shaping up in 13 local authorities in the West Midlands, using our MRP model. Labour dropping everywhere, Reform surging in those leave-voting areas, three-way races in Birmingham and Coventry. Sky and the Times featured this morning.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Today we released our first ever MRP projection of London Borough elections. Our central projections have Labour dropping 16pts on 2022, falling to largest party status in just 15 councils. The Greens are set to benefit, with Reform also currently doing well.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

We brought to life a brand new type of model for our Danish election projection - Looped Stratified Simulation (LSS) - and it performed very well! Read more about the model and our Danish work in the thread here 👇

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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

To everyone in my timeline discussing high streets, I've got a report out on Tuesday writing up some surveys that we ran with YouGov in 2022, 2024 and 2025 asking people about how they view their local area... the findings may be of interest in various respects! #staytuned #towns

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

Join Scarlett Maguire, @jameskanag.bsky.social and myself live with @mattchorley.bsky.social from 5 past 3 for our regular @bbc5live.bsky.social Poll Position segment! Do tune in!

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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 05/01/2026

The 2025 UK news cycle, in one chart yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Key takeaways

Every week over the course of 2025 YouGov asked the public what news story they had heard most about
The 2025 Budget came top, peaking at 64%
Seven of the top ten stories were international stories
Immigration, Gaza, and Ukraine were consistently cited by small numbers for much of the year, alongside notable peaks in response to events
The actions of Donald Trump were consistently brought up as a top story by Britons over the course of the year

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Sarah Ledoux @sarahledoux.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

Incredible work by Matt Smith at @yougov.co.uk summing up the most heard news stories of 2025! Check out the whole story & breakdown here yougov.co.uk/politics/art... "Cool" only begins to describe how it feels to see outputs from the AI topic quantifier after I developed it at YouGov last year ♥️

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

Our @yougov.co.uk data journalism extraordinaire Matt Smith has compiled all news tracker results from 2025 into this stunning graphic This tells us so much about what 'cuts through', how news cycles evolve, and what grabs attention re: flash moments vs ongoing stories yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 30/12/2025

The latest @yougov.co.uk data suggests that the British public are in favour of banning trail hunting by a margin of 50%-29%. What's more, this crosses urban-rural divides: 50% of people living in rural Britain want trail hunting banned. 35% think it should be legal.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

I'll be on Times Radio for a chat with John Pienaar at 4pm to discuss the latest polling on Britain's relationship with the European Union. Do tune in for one final pre-Christmas appearance from me!

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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 23/12/2025

Which *one* news story do Britons say they heard the most about in the last week? (fieldwork 21-22 Dec 2025) Shooting on Bondi Beach: 26% Epstein Files: 19% Immigration: 4% Trump [general]: 3% Criticisms of the government: 3% War in Ukraine: 3% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

📻🎄Listen out at 3pm today on @bbc5live.bsky.social for the final Poll Position of 2025, with your regular star-studded pollster team of @jameskanag.bsky.social, Scarlett Maguire, and myself kept on track by super host @mattchorley.bsky.social And yes, of course, there will be a festive joke or two

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Steve Fisher @stevefisher.bsky.social · 09/12/2025

The Appendices for The British General Election of 2024 book are available (for free) under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007... The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.

link.springer.com

The British General Election of 2024

The British General Election of 2024 is the definitive account of one of the most consequential elections in recent times.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

Here’s the definitive Budget feedback from the British public: yougov.co.uk/politics/art... By are margin of 48% - 21%, Brits view the Budget as “unfair”. Some individual measures poll well, but as a whole Brits think it will make them, and the country, worse off.

yougov.co.uk

How have Britons reacted to the 2025 Budget? | YouGov

While the government may have protected themselves by dropping their income tax plans, the public reaction to the Budget has still been negative

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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 19/11/2025

Ahead of the budget, @patrick-pme.bsky.social looks at where public opinion lies Britons think the economy is bad... Bad: 79% Neither good/bad: 15% Good: 4% ...and that the government is managing it badly Badly: 77% Well: 14% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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Sam Macrory @sammacrory.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

I would say this… But this podcast is a must-listen to understand what happened at Conservative Party conference and whether Kemi Badenoch’s stamp duty plan adds up Properly insightful analysis from ace @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues and @patrick-pme.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk

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Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 07/10/2025

Look out for a #CPC25 Inside Briefing special podcast - the IfG team @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @alexgathomas.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social are joined by guest @patrick-pme.bsky.social. Landing in your podcast feeds tomorrow. 🎧👀

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 14/09/2025

It’s been a bit of a week or so in British politics, right? Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate. But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

Phillipson and Powell seem pretty well set to get to 80 from here, you'd think. There are still over 250 MPs left to declare. Easily enough for more candidates to make it, theoretically... You'd think most likely third option is Bell Ribeiro-Addy mustering Labour left support but who knows?

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

Some polling nuggets on Angela Rayner, now that the Deputy Prime Minister has resigned. First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today. This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 20/07/2025

🚨🔔 NEW, from me! I’ve taken some time to review the evidence and try to give answers on… 🤔 Are Reform popular with young voters? 🌹 How much ground have Labour with the British youth? ⬇️ Who will benefit most from ‘Votes at 16’, Starmer or Farage? patrickenglish.substack.com/p/reform-and...

patrickenglish.substack.com

Reform and young people in the context of votes at 16

Anecdotes may claim rising support for the right among the British youth, but is that so?

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

This article is very strong on the potential polling and electoral consequences of lowering the voting age to 16. Parties of the left are absolutely dominant among young voters. Labour are most popular. We hear a lot about “young people and Reform” but it’s only a really small minority, in reality.

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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

First @yougov.co.uk‬ MRP since 2024 election shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as largest party. (‪@patrick-pme.bsky.social‬) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250626

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

🚨NEW 🚨 @YouGov have released our first MRP since #GE2024 If an election were being held right now... ➡️ Reform would be the largest party in a hung parliament 🌹Labour would be reduced to 176 seats 🌳Tories would become 4th party ⏫ Gains for Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, and Greens

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

Political volatility has been taking us by surprise for a while now. Here’s little exercise to illustrate. Rewind two years and take a look at where the polls were, what people expected, and what they failed to anticipate. You have to go back a while before politics is predictable even 2 yrs out 1/

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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 09/06/2025

Winter fuel payments are set to be restored to all pensioners with an income of £35,000 or less Our poll found a plurality of Britons wanted to see more pensioners be eligible for WFPs (44%) rather than a return to all pensioners getting it (33%) yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

What is happening between Musk and Trump is of course dominating the headlines. But the ongoing struggles that Reform are having keeping their own band together is worth tracking. Reform Chair Zia Yusuf quit today in the third acrimonious party ‘falling out’ in 8 months.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 27/05/2025

Yes: Reform are leading the polls Yes: Farage is popular among many voters Yes: Reform did very well in the local elections Also yes: Farage is a hugely divisive figure, and will unite voter coalitions *against* him, as well as for He does not win a single @yougov.co.uk Best PM matchup 👇

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform? How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over? Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇

persuasionuk.org

Getting to know 'Reform curious Labour voters'

exploring the attitudes, demography and values of Reform curious Labour voters and the coalitional dilemmas they lose

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

Hard to express just how close the Liberals came to winning a majority. This *one vote win* on the recount flips another seat into their column. Liberals now *two seats* short of a majority. They could get as close as *one seat* if the recount in Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore turns it their way.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015. This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 03/05/2025

A reminder of the final @yougov.co.uk MRP projection of the Australian federal election. We expected an increased Labor majority, while other models pointed to a hung parliament. But Labor are outperforming even our expectations at the minute.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

Here's another. This graph shows the relationship between estimated 2016 Leave share and party performance from 2021-25. There's no real relationship for any party *apart* from Reform UK, where we see a pretty clear uptick in Reform share increase as estimated Leave goes up.

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

An illustration of how FPP goes from sandbag to springboard - Reform votes and seats in different councils: Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

As you have just heard from Laura on the BBC elections coverage, we are now proejcting that the Conservatives will win the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough combined authority mayoral position, taking it from Labour. We await the final numbers from Cambridge to confirm.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

This is what we mean when we say it’s actually difficult for Labour to have a ‘really bad night’ tonight, by usual standards. They’re defending about 1/3 of the seats that the Conservatives are. Mayoral contests (esp. WoE and Cambs) offer more obvious areas of political pain for the government.

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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Another solid performance for the YouGov MRP in Canada. The central estimates were a little high for the Liberals and a little low for the Conservatives - but the result was within the distribution of modelled outcomes. Interestingly, the vote share of both parties was slightly under-estimated.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 25/04/2025

We at @yougov.co.uk have released our projection of the 2025 Canadian election. 🇨🇦🍁🗳️ Our central expectation is that the Liberals win a majority. Overall vote share looks close: our median projection is 42% for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives. The NDP look set for their worst ever result.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

Canada’s 2025 federal election could be one of the first in a new era of global instability and uncertainty where it *pays* to be the incumbent, after a 2024 which saw incumbents get *trashed* in elections worldwide. But: many of the economic problems which led to those 2024 routs remain.

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