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Reposted by Patrick English

Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 30/09/2026

CONSERVATIVE PARTY CONFERENCE 2026 | Governing in a fractured Britain: How should the Conservatives rethink their approach to power? Heading to Birmingham? Join us Monday 5 October at 08:30 with @patrick-pme.bsky.social, Lucy Harris, Tom Skinner, Baroness Finn, and @alexgathomas.bsky.social.

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Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 02/10/2026

First up at 08:30 on Monday, our event will explore governing in a fractured Britain, and how the Conservatives should rethink their approach to power. We will hear from an expert panel featuring @patrick-pme.bsky.social, Lucy Harris, Tom Skinner, Baroness Finn, and @alexgathomas.bsky.social.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Seat by seat, interval by interval

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

👀As you may have heard by now, the latest @yougov.co.uk MRP is coming out early tomorrow morning! It’s our first intervention since September 2025, when we showed Reform within touching distance of a majority. What will tomorrow’s model show? Set your alarms for 0600 and find out 😉

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Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

So how did we get here, with Starmer on the way out after two years? To some extent, it does go back to the beginning. It was not an enthusiastic victory for Labour. Getting rid of the Tories was the top reason people voted for them in 2024, though with their message of 'Change' also resonating.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

@yougov.co.uk built the best MRP model of the 2026 Welsh Senedd election, and one of (if not *the*) best model of the 2026 Holyrood elections. I’m very proud of the team’s achievements and YouGov’s continued, worldwide record of election success!

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Thank you for the very kind words and the recommendation x2, Stephen!!

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Neal Hockley @nealhockley.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

This by @patrick-pme.bsky.social is worth re-upping. Debates whether Lab shld swing left or right miss that most swing voters want the same thing: competent govt that feels like it's doing stuff. Deliverism wld win back votes from both Greens & Reform patrickenglish.substack.com/p/should-lab...

patrickenglish.substack.com

Should Labour move left or right?

Neither? The situation Labour face today looks so similar to that which faced the Conservatives in 2024.

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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

"There is little to no statistical relationship between Reform performance and Labour performance, but a very strong (negative) relationship between Labour and Green performance." @patrick-pme.bsky.social

patrickenglish.substack.com

Local elections analysis: Labour struggled more versus the Greens than Reform

Locals give fresh evidence on how the 2024 Labour coalition is breaking apart

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

Thanks for the kind words, Will! 🙏 Interesting re: 2024 baseline. But looks roughly the same in terms of gap to me with the data I’ve got in front of me? Though there are far fewer big Green rises and big Labour baseline shares to cut by, so it’s looking at 20pt+ increases rather than 30pt+

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Thank you for the very kind words, Andrew 🙏

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Excellent analysis from my BBC elections team colleague and YouGov data guru @patrick-pme.bsky.social on what the local elections data tells us about whether Labour is losing more to Greens or Reform. Spoiler alert: its the Greens open.substack.com/pub/patricke...

open.substack.com

Local elections analysis: Labour struggled more versus the Greens than Reform

Locals give fresh evidence on how the 2024 Labour coalition is breaking apart

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Reposted by Patrick English

Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Some more rigorous analysis from @patrick-pme.bsky.social confirming this earlier mid-results hot take: bsky.app/profile/robf...

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

I’ve written up a Substack all about how the results from this year’s local elections suggest that the Greens are a bigger threat to Labour’s vote than Reform. We had evidence of this from the polling, and now it’s been reflected in election data. patrickenglish.substack.com/p/local-elec...

patrickenglish.substack.com

Local elections analysis: Labour struggled more versus the Greens than Reform

Locals give fresh evidence on how the 2024 Labour coalition is breaking apart

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Reposted by Patrick English

John Rentoul @rentouljohn.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

BBC Projected National Share of the vote via @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and change from last year Reform 26% -4 Green 18% +7 Labour 17% -3 Conservative 17% +2 Lib Dems 16% -1

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

But but but - Reform still directly benefit from Labour’s decline in popularity. Both in terms of winning Labour voters themselves (just not as many as the Greens/Plaid do) and *also* by ‘coming through the middle’ and winning seats where Labour drops and Greens rise.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Which is a huge nod to the point that Sir John Curtice made overnight based off our analysis of the early results. These election results corroborate the polls which suggest that Labour are losing out far more to the Greens than to Reform. (In Wales, that becomes Plaid).

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

And London is not unique in this regard. Labour’s seat loss rate accelerated quickly back up to around 60% once Manchester, Birmingham, Sheffield etc began declaring, having slowed down while early London results were coming in.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Greens fall just short in Lambeth, but become the largest party. Labour down by 28, losing almost 60%. London tells a very different story regarding Labour performances and defences in later results versus earlier ones. Mostly driven by there being more Green challenges in later declarations.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Here we go! We at @yougov.co.uk have projected how the race is shaping up in 13 local authorities in the West Midlands, using our MRP model. Labour dropping everywhere, Reform surging in those leave-voting areas, three-way races in Birmingham and Coventry. Sky and the Times featured this morning.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Today we released our first ever MRP projection of London Borough elections. Our central projections have Labour dropping 16pts on 2022, falling to largest party status in just 15 councils. The Greens are set to benefit, with Reform also currently doing well.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

We brought to life a brand new type of model for our Danish election projection - Looped Stratified Simulation (LSS) - and it performed very well! Read more about the model and our Danish work in the thread here 👇

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

“Notorious” is such a flex - maybe I’ll get there, one day…

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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

To everyone in my timeline discussing high streets, I've got a report out on Tuesday writing up some surveys that we ran with YouGov in 2022, 2024 and 2025 asking people about how they view their local area... the findings may be of interest in various respects! #staytuned #towns

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

Join Scarlett Maguire, @jameskanag.bsky.social and myself live with @mattchorley.bsky.social from 5 past 3 for our regular @bbc5live.bsky.social Poll Position segment! Do tune in!

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Reposted by Patrick English

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 05/01/2026

The 2025 UK news cycle, in one chart yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Key takeaways

Every week over the course of 2025 YouGov asked the public what news story they had heard most about
The 2025 Budget came top, peaking at 64%
Seven of the top ten stories were international stories
Immigration, Gaza, and Ukraine were consistently cited by small numbers for much of the year, alongside notable peaks in response to events
The actions of Donald Trump were consistently brought up as a top story by Britons over the course of the year

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Sarah Ledoux @sarahledoux.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

Incredible work by Matt Smith at @yougov.co.uk summing up the most heard news stories of 2025! Check out the whole story & breakdown here yougov.co.uk/politics/art... "Cool" only begins to describe how it feels to see outputs from the AI topic quantifier after I developed it at YouGov last year ♥️

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 31/12/2025

Our @yougov.co.uk data journalism extraordinaire Matt Smith has compiled all news tracker results from 2025 into this stunning graphic This tells us so much about what 'cuts through', how news cycles evolve, and what grabs attention re: flash moments vs ongoing stories yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 30/12/2025

The latest @yougov.co.uk data suggests that the British public are in favour of banning trail hunting by a margin of 50%-29%. What's more, this crosses urban-rural divides: 50% of people living in rural Britain want trail hunting banned. 35% think it should be legal.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 23/12/2025

I'll be on Times Radio for a chat with John Pienaar at 4pm to discuss the latest polling on Britain's relationship with the European Union. Do tune in for one final pre-Christmas appearance from me!

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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 23/12/2025

Which *one* news story do Britons say they heard the most about in the last week? (fieldwork 21-22 Dec 2025) Shooting on Bondi Beach: 26% Epstein Files: 19% Immigration: 4% Trump [general]: 3% Criticisms of the government: 3% War in Ukraine: 3% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

📻🎄Listen out at 3pm today on @bbc5live.bsky.social for the final Poll Position of 2025, with your regular star-studded pollster team of @jameskanag.bsky.social, Scarlett Maguire, and myself kept on track by super host @mattchorley.bsky.social And yes, of course, there will be a festive joke or two

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Steve Fisher @stevefisher.bsky.social · 09/12/2025

The Appendices for The British General Election of 2024 book are available (for free) under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007... The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.

link.springer.com

The British General Election of 2024

The British General Election of 2024 is the definitive account of one of the most consequential elections in recent times.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

Here’s the definitive Budget feedback from the British public: yougov.co.uk/politics/art... By are margin of 48% - 21%, Brits view the Budget as “unfair”. Some individual measures poll well, but as a whole Brits think it will make them, and the country, worse off.

yougov.co.uk

How have Britons reacted to the 2025 Budget? | YouGov

While the government may have protected themselves by dropping their income tax plans, the public reaction to the Budget has still been negative

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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 19/11/2025

Ahead of the budget, @patrick-pme.bsky.social looks at where public opinion lies Britons think the economy is bad... Bad: 79% Neither good/bad: 15% Good: 4% ...and that the government is managing it badly Badly: 77% Well: 14% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

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Sam Macrory @sammacrory.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

I would say this… But this podcast is a must-listen to understand what happened at Conservative Party conference and whether Kemi Badenoch’s stamp duty plan adds up Properly insightful analysis from ace @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues and @patrick-pme.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk

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Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 07/10/2025

Look out for a #CPC25 Inside Briefing special podcast - the IfG team @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @alexgathomas.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social are joined by guest @patrick-pme.bsky.social. Landing in your podcast feeds tomorrow. 🎧👀

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 14/09/2025

If the answer is “not many” then the membership’s appetite for change over continuity could be diminished. The bar for bath water removal becomes that little bit higher.

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 14/09/2025

Precisely *who* these remaining members are vs those who have left will be a key driver in which way the membership will lean in the Deputy Leadership contest. For example: how many of those 135,218 members who voted for Rebecca Long-Bailey in 2020 remain in the party now?

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 14/09/2025

It’s been a bit of a week or so in British politics, right? Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate. But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections

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Patrick English @patrick-pme.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

Phillipson and Powell seem pretty well set to get to 80 from here, you'd think. There are still over 250 MPs left to declare. Easily enough for more candidates to make it, theoretically... You'd think most likely third option is Bell Ribeiro-Addy mustering Labour left support but who knows?

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