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Persuasion UK

@persuasionuk.bsky.social
632 followers 449 following 30 posts

Researching what is shaping UK public opinion on the issues that define our politics @ persuasionuk.org. Director: @steveakehurst.bsky.social

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Morgan Jones @morganj0nes.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
As Steve outlines below, we have new research out today. For those who prefer paragraphs to graphs when it comes to taking in information, I've written about them here for @politicshome.bsky.social. With some caveats, they're very good for Andy Burnham: www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
NEW: How does Burnham’s conference speech land with voters when they see it it? In short, very well it seems. A thread on some new video testing of the PM’s speech among voters by @persuasionuk.bsky.social Top line findings and some caveats below! 🧵👇
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
NEW: With the first day of Labour conference upon us, here are a few random interesting things i've noticed in @persuasionuk.bsky.social polling recently. Featuring: the Andy Burnham vibe emporium, the cost of living blame game and north vs south.
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Our polling is in today's @mirror.co.uk:
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Morgan Jones @morganj0nes.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Pleased to be in @opendemocracy.net discussing @persuasionuk.bsky.social's work assessing what messages work against Reform and why the summer of financial scandals has caught up to the party. www.opendemocracy.net/reform-uk-ni...
opendemocracy.net
Why crypto and financial scandals are finally denting Reform UK
Our research shows Nigel Farage’s anti-elitist brand is vulnerable to stories linking billionaire cash to party policy
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
NEW: How did the summer heatwaves and wildfires change attitudes to climate and Net Zero, if at all? A short thread on analysis of tracker polling now summer is winding down. 🧵 (for @persuasionuk.bsky.social with @yougov.co.uk)
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Holborn & St Pancras gut take, fwiw: Should be a fairly safe Labour hold, but Polanski adds a big chaos factor. Without the credible threat of Reform, Labour will need to find a way to up the stakes. Greens will need to settle on a few wedge issues. Bit more on each of these 👇🧵
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Morgan Jones @morganj0nes.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
I'm in PoliticsHome, talking about Persuasion's work on the electoral calculations at play when it comes to further oil and gas licenses.
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social is in @politicshome.bsky.social in advance of the Clacton by-election this week. www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
politicshome.com
How to read the Clacton by-election result
For a man who wants to be prime minister, Nigel Farage's most important audience is the watching country, not the residents of Clacton.
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Updated numbers here: Burnham bounce still basically entirely coming from clawing back voters Labour had lost to Greens, Lib Dems and Plaid/SNP. In addition, Burnham now winning 10% of Green 2024 voters - double that from June.
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
If you want to read more on these progressive defectors (why they are neither as radical not unreasonable as people thought) and how Lab might marry them with their right-leaning equivalents, @persuasionuk.bsky.social did a report with 38 Degrees back in Spring: persuasionuk.org/research/rev...
persuasionuk.org
Revolt on the left
Who are the voters leaving Labour for other left parties and what influences them?
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Where is the 'Burnham bounce' coming from? So far, it's largely Labour 2024 voters returning to Labour - mostly those 'progressive defectors' who had previously switched to the Greens. Based on 5 polls with headline VI since 20th July (MiC, Delta, YG, Survation).
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Weird thing is most testing will show you that one of the most vote losing positions Labour could adopt is explicit anti-Net Zero signalling. This is because climate still disproportionately matters to Lab/Green voters while Lab/Reform voters don’t care either way...
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Morgan Jones @morganj0nes.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Last month, @persuasionuk.bsky.social's work on what messages have cut through against Reform featured in @samfr.bsky.social's substack. The td;lr is that being seen as personally enriching, or generally not on the side of ordinary people, hurts the brand.
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New Economics Foundation @neweconomics.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Without a change of strategy, living standards will be worse by the end of this parliament. But the government could act to bring down the prices families are struggling with. This would create savings for people and, as polling today from @persuasionuk.bsky.social shows, be very popular
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Morgan Jones @morganj0nes.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Really pleased that @persuasionuk.bsky.social's work on the strengths and weaknesses of the Reform brand features in @samfr.bsky.social's substack today.
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social is in @cityam.bsky.social, talking about baselines for assessing Makerfield: "As strange as it sounds, Labour have no right to even be competitive in this seat; they should be 20-odd points behind based on national polling". www.cityam.com/what-should-...
cityam.com
What should we make of Makerfield?
Much analysis of the Makerfield by-election focuses on what it means for Keir Starmer and the Labour party's national fortunes - but how should we assess it on its own terms?
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
"One of the saddest graphs that faces this government is that all of the things people hate they know a lot about, and all of the things they like they haven't heard of." Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social at Progress conference this afternoon talking about Labour's renters' rights offer:
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Alain Tolhurst @alaintolhurst.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
🚨 New pod: Starmer on the brink 🚨 I was joined by Labour MP @joshfg.bsky.social and @steveakehurst.bsky.social from @persuasionuk.bsky.social as well as top colleague @siennarodgers.bsky.social and Ryan Wain from the TBI to look at how Labour got here, how it might recover, and with who as PM
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The Rundown by PoliticsHome: Starmer on the brink after May 7 mauling
NB: This episode was recorded *before* Wes Streeting resigned and Josh Simons stood aside for Andy BurnhamAfter crushing defeats across the UK last week for Keir Starmer, dozens of Labour MPs have ...
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
NEW: What exactly happened in the local and devolved elections in England, Scotland and Wales last week? @persuasionuk.bsky.social has some new polling out today which offers a first glimpse. Thread here on top line findings from each nation. 🧵
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Morgan Jones @morganj0nes.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Much discussion post locals is on who Labour’s leader should be. For @newstatesman1913.bsky.social, I’ve asked who the party’s coalition should be: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
newstatesman.com
Labour is ignoring its actual supporters
The party has an intensely sentimental view of itself at odds with its real base
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
"Councillors gained is an OK metric, but it's not perfect for lots of different reasons... one of the best things you can do is wait for the projected national vote share". @steveakehurst.bsky.social on @hugorifkind.bsky.social's programme this morning talking about how to read the locals results:
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social is in the HuffPost this morning, warning that we can't neatly equate seat loss to a party to vote loss to that party. www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/may-el...
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
This is exactly what the British Election Study tells us happened last year! Yet that did not stop a round of 'Labour losing votes to Reform' which contributed to the Govt missing the much bigger threat to their left. So these things matter analytically and in the messy world of politics.
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
This time next week there's going to be a lot of hot takes and spin knocking around, especially re: Reform. I've written a short primer for @politicshome.bsky.social on how to stay sane and navigate the immediate post-election chaos. Thread here too. 🧵 www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
politicshome.com
Misunderstood, over interpreted, unrepresentative: How to read the local election results
The internet will be teeming with hot takes as soon as the first declarations come in on Friday morning. To help you navigate a weekend of noise, h...
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Ellie Mae O'Hagan @elliemaeohagan.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Always worth reading research from @persuasionuk.bsky.social
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Tactically I think Reeves made best of a bad situation today - the individual measures were sensible and some good stuff in there. But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Must read for Labour - then they can't say they weren't told!
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Fascinating report out today looking at the choices facing Labour ahead of the budget - there are no good options but failing on core progressive goals is a much bigger risk for Labour govt than breaking promises on tax.
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government? Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this. TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab. 🧵
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
WATCH: @steveakehurst.bsky.social discusses our latest research on the government's 'least worst option' on tax rises with @anooshc.bsky.social on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social podcast. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV73...
youtube.com
Labour CAN raise tax, if… | UK Politics | The New Statesman
YouTube video by The New Statesman
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
NEW: our latest research on where voters stand on tax rises v improvements on public services and cost of living is out now. Read it here: persuasionuk.org/research/bud...
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Interesting from @samfr.bsky.social as ever "...young women’s leftwards turn is not just an issue for parties on the right, it’s a problem for centre-left parties too. They are fixating about the loss of older voters to the radical right [while] haemorrhaging young women to parties like the Greens"
open.substack.com
Why are young women increasingly left-wing?
And how it could change politics
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Nigel Farage makes mistakes just like any other politician and his close relationship with Trump is a big one, as explained by Persuasion Director, Steve Akehurst on the @newstatesman.com podcast: Read the full research here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
youtube.com
Farage and Trump relationship a problem for Reform | UK Politics | The New Statesman
YouTube video by The New Statesman
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to? Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want. strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...
strongmessagehere.substack.com
What messages might Reform be vulnerable to?
Exploring weaknesses in the Farage brand - an experiment.
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
WATCH Persuasion Director @steveakehurst.bsky.social discuss our latest research on Reform's brand weaknesses on the @newstatesman.com podcast with @rmcunliffe.bsky.social and Anoosh Chakelian: youtu.be/7uT0R_FBllE?...
youtu.be
Labour must say THIS to beat Reform | UK politics | The New Statesman
YouTube video by The New Statesman
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
This is fascinating research - Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them. Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
Quite an interesting gender gap opening up in vote intention at the mo: Reform vote notably more male, residual Con vote more female. Boris’ 2019 coalition was unusually male by historic standards, and has fractured in quite gendered ways. Lab->Green also more female than Lab->LDs, curiously.
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Leo Barasi @leobarasi.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
This is the same as hospitals, police, climate change etc. Huge gap between % who say they want more govt spending and % who say they'd pay more themselves. Task for govt is to make the case for why we need to pay more now, to save money later. Chart from @steveakehurst.bsky.social
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Robert Shrimsley @robertshrimsley.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
Everything you need to know about the British voting public
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Lorna Greenwood @lornagreenwood.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
Jason Cowley suggests that being 'net zero supporting' is the preserve of the 'metropolitan liberal-left' against 'working class Labour' when polling consistently shows that the majority of the public support net zero. Lazy stereotyping doesn't make it true. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
thetimes.com
Broken Labour agrees on one thing: frustration with Keir Starmer
Faced with a divided party and disaffected voters, this month’s spending review is of critical importance to the government as it seeks to balance the books and plan for the future
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Lorna Greenwood @lornagreenwood.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
"...core voter groups can leave political parties suddenly if they don’t feel we are serving them." This backs up Persuasion's research which is referenced in Jeevun's piece.
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
"...this is the time for outright confrontation with the dark forces of the right, reaffirming social democratic and liberal progressive optimism." @pollytoynbee.bsky.social uses our research to show that progressive policies can save Labour's voter coalition www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
The lesson for Labour? Until it can improve local lives and stop fearing Farage, more losses are coming | Polly Toynbee
Rapid, highly visible action in communities and a forthright attack on the new right – that is what’s needed now, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee
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George Eaton @georgeeaton.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
A glimmer of hope for Labour – its vote share rises to 36% if Reform is its main opponent (via @persuasionuk.bsky.social).
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
Correct! Read our report for more info on this: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
persuasionuk.org
Getting to know 'Reform curious Labour voters'
Exploring the attitudes, demography and values of Reform curious Labour voters and the coalitional dilemmas they represent
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
Good to see @jessicaelgot.bsky.social using our research to show that Net Zero remains popular and that Labour needs to pay as much attention to its left flank as its Reform curious voters. www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
theguardian.com
Phasing out fossil fuels ‘doomed to fail’, says Tony Blair as he calls for rethink of net zero policy – as it happened
‘Any strategy based on either phasing out fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail,’ says former PM
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Lorna Greenwood @lornagreenwood.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
‪'Maybe it’s not just schoolboys who should be sat down and made to watch Netflix’s Adolescence, as MPs keep arguing, but their fathers." @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social on our surprise finding that Gen Z men aren't as extreme as we might think. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
We obsess over the angry young men going Reform. But what of the anxious young women going Green? | Gaby Hinsliff
Desire for a politics that cares about global and local injustice is sharpening the political gender divide, says Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are generally in favour of Net Zero compared to core Reform voters who have a lot of hostility towards it. Read more here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
This is excellent research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social. Urge everyone to read for an *informed* take on the voters Labour is losing to Reform.
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