Prior distributions, partial pooling, and reference sets (Bayesians are frequentists) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Survey Statistics: ANOVA follow-up | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Is it true that “AI Chooses Nuclear Option in 95% of War Simulations”? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

A nonlinear effect plus measurement error in x becomes close to linear: A simulation study | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Survey of academic bureaucracy | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

I guess this is what they mean when they talk about “reactionary centrism”: Corruption of government facilitated by enablers in intellectual society | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Soc...

As a society, we are pretty good at transferring money to political pundits, but we’re not very good at nurturing the human capital they would need to correct their own mistakes. | Statistical Modeli...

Postdoc hiring season at Flatiron | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

They were trying to convince everybody to have 3 kids | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

It’s fine to use computer-generated survey responses—if you don’t care about the data anyway! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Here’s a causal inference problem: where did the estimate of $64 million come from in “Blake Lively Says She Suffered $64 Million Financial Fallout From Justin Baldoni Conflict . . .”? | Statistical...

Survey Statistics: Fat Bear Week 2026 | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

“Phonics is a fad, but it’s also good, so we should do it anyway, even though it will probably disappoint people” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Do high school students have to work harder nowadays? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

How did it go, this prediction from ten years ago about Japanese fertility in 2026? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Meritocracy to-morrow and meritocracy yesterday – but never meritocracy to-day | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Scientific citations as an overwhelmed communication channel | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

It’s satisfying to see the economics profession come around on some things (regression discontinuity analysis and so-called risk aversion) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science...

Charting the Agentic Garden of Forking Paths | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Survey Statistics: ANOVA | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

“Protection from inappropriate influence is a hallmark of scientific integrity” . . . not any more! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

The Washington Nationals are hiring! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

New York City Psychometrics Group | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

This is how we do modern frequentist statistics: Using fake-data simulation to understand what can happen in a study | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

What’s happening with the models of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Annals of hype: Did this discovery in 2012 mark “the discovery of the final laws of nature . . . a discontinuity in human intellectual history, the sharpest that has occurred since the beginning of ...

Why I don’t like highest posterior density (HPD) intervals | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

“Belief” is not something you have; rather, it’s a relationship between thought and action. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

When journals are slow to implement or enforce policies to manage sloppy, majority AI-authored papers, reviewers can and should push back | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science...

Why I still like Orwell’s “Politics and the English Language” essay (even though he gets some of the linguistics wrong) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Living on the Edge: Aggressive mediocrity at the summit of America’s intellectual culture | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Survey Statistics: Pew Research finds “No Easy Fix for Bogus Respondents in Online Opt-In Polls” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Hey–here’s an R package for imputing Census data using iterative proportional fitting on available margins. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

“In the Weights”—an exclusive invitation just for you! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Does anyone have lower Jordan3 number than Evans Boney? (And what about the Ariely-Armstrong-Enron number?) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

OK, here’s a statistics problem for you, ripped directly from the headlines! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Update on U.S. government’s Soviet-style push for “gold standard science” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Update on “I don’t understand this paper claiming election fraud in 2024 in Pennsylvania” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Updike and statistical writing; more on honesty and precision | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Confirmation bias in software testing, Walnutpie edition | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Metascience corner: What can we learn from 12 million empirical research results? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Yale med school prof tells his postdocs: Work extra hours at my command or you’re no better than “the guy who charges me by the hour to cut my lawn.” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and So...

Survey Statistics: logit shift and raking | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Updike’s kaleidoscope: Telling a life through a set of unconnected stories | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

I am shocked, shocked to learn that this 2002 paper by Dan Ariely is based on dubious data and doesn’t replicate. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Do children grow continuously or do they grow in fits and starts? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Coyote vs. Acme (also, for free, my take on The Odyssey) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

“Why did ANOVA fall out of fashion?” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

What stories should we tell about science now? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science