On the origins of cost-benefit analyses in governmental decision making

thinking out loud and showing traces of reasoning

Some thoughts about mathematics as a cultural and social technology.

A very short introduction to survival analysis and forecasting event times.

Readout of the Public Feedback for AI Workshop, part 2

How much precision do we need in seismological odds?

I’m happy to announce that Caroline Ellison has accepted a role at Manifund, to develop our funding platform and research how to effectively direct philanthropic dollars.

We asked a group of writers to consider the forces that have shaped our lives in 2017. Here, science fiction writer Ted Chiang looks at capitalism, Silicon Valley, and its fear of superintelligent AI.

Every forecasting course must engage with the dappled world of probability.

Jacob Coxon talks to WIRED about the “mini Manhattan project” inside Anthropic, the problem with alignment, and why AI labs have just a few years left to make their systems safe.

Success and uncertainty in the weather report.

The mathematics of transmuting frequencies of the past into odds of the future.

Edmond Halley and the multiple purposes of forecasting.

Open problems and fundamental limitations of public feedback for AI (evals)

A plan for this semester's critical retrospective on forecasting and its culture.

What does my future hold?

A few fun ideas on how to organize, implement, and archive your microconference.

An emphasis shift for human-facing computing research

A proposal to create alternative systems for generating, evaluating, and sharing knowledge

How Democratic consultants, committees, and party leaders built a fundraising spam pipeline that funnels money from a captive pool of elderly donors into their own operations.

The arms race of deferring agency and the dark acquiescence to robotic bureaucracy.

11 track album

What should be fair game and fair use for open corpus public intelligence?

A call for AI models with open weights, open source, and open corpus.