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Masha Krupenkin

@mashakr.bsky.social
922 followers 618 following 1K posts

Political Scientist living in DC. "We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be" - Kurt Vonnegut

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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 3m
This is all good and well, but remember how Susan Collins was supposed to lose in a blowout in 2020? How'd that go?
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 12m
WSJ’s Greg Ip with a great piece about how voters — when it comes right down to it — don’t like being bought. @wsj.com www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 18m
The field of survey methodology has actually thought quite about this topic. Here's the canonical framework: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_s...
en.wikipedia.org
Total survey error - Wikipedia
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 20m
Sometimes, people answer polls without reading the questions. So, it is, in fact, measurement error, not sampling error. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
pewresearch.org
Online opt-in polls can produce misleading results, especially for young people and Hispanic adults
We examine how an opt-in poll may have unintentionally misled the public about the sensitive issue of Holocaust denial among young Americans.
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 26m
Measurement error.
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David Rothschild @davmicrot.bsky.social · 15h
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/13/o... Westwood's criticism of @lilymasonphd.bsky.social inadvertently illustrates her argument! By treating political symmetry as the neutral default, he places the burden on Mason to prove asymmetry, without imposing an equivalent burden on his symmetric model ...
nytimes.com
Opinion | ‘Polarization Is the Price U.S. Society Has Had to Pay for Real Progress’
A debate in the rarefied atmosphere of elite academia is virtually certain to have real-world consequences.
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 1h
I will absolutely die on this hill. I think if the US survives as a multiracial democracy, in time we will view denaturalization in the same light as we view things like the racial requirements in the Naturalization Act of 1790 (wherein only white immigrants could naturalize).
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 1h
Yes, this is true even for genuine cases of fraud. It is the state's responsibility to do due diligence for naturalization applications. The possibility of a mistake in the vetting process does not justify the creation of two-tiered citizenship.
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 1h
Denaturalization should not exist. The existence of a procedure to strip citizenship from naturalized citizens inherently renders them second-class. There does not exist a parallel procedure for native-born citizens.
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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 2h
The denaturalization push against Ilhan Omar is so much worse than even previous abuses of federal authority and investigative power. It’s not just that it’s a targeted investigation, but that it’s an effort to achieve something that could NEVER possibly be legitimate.
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Scott L Greer @scottlgreer.bsky.social · 3h
"The intersection of racism and authoritarianism is dangerous indeed. And I think the effort to denaturalize Omar is absolutely dead serious, and is a constitutional crisis."
lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com
Find the woman and I'll find the crime - Lawyers, Guns & Money
The details of the Ilhan Omar case Paul discussed yesterday keep getting worse: The Trump administration’s investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar (D., Minn.) is aimed at building a case to strip her of he...
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 4h
Relevant here journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... (cc: @jamellebouie.net)
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darth™️ @darthbluesky.bsky.social · 4h
36% of MAGA republicans favor live broadcasts of executions just completely fucked up people
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Alan Jagolinzer @jagolinzer.bsky.social · 18h
The higher education sector significantly underestimates the appetite and aggression behind cherry-picked rage-bait anti-science campaigns. Those who do not understand this playbook risk being “scalped” next. With @profsanderlinden.bsky.social www.timeshighereducation.com/opinion/bewa...
timeshighereducation.com
Beware of anti-woke campaigners’ attack playbook
Typical moves include cherry-picking evidence, selectively targeting minorities and coordinating harassment, say Sander van der Linden and Alan Jagolinzer
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 18h
Underlining the message that all immigrant citizens are second class citizens under Trump. Our rights can be revoked if we dare to criticize a corrupt regime.
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 17h
I dislike the concept of art made with AI because it removes, for me, the most important part of art, which is the process. That said, I'm mostly fine with non-obvious AI art used in advertisements etc
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Katie Spoon @kspoon.bsky.social · 20h
As a PhD student designing my first survey, I added what I thought was a throwaway question at the end. To my surprise, thousands of academics answered it! The paper is out today: doi.org/10.1093/pnas...
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Rabbi Danya Ruttenberg @theradr.bsky.social · 22h
What if we just didn't make fun of what people looked like (or their size, or ability, or hair or clothes or makeup or plastic surgery even or any of that shit) Because actually what matters is what you say and what you do words and actions and their impact on other people
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Kevin @kevinlikesmaps.bsky.social · 17h
You guys have no idea how angry Ukrainians are right now because they’re mostly writing in Ukrainian, but I see it and it absolutely breaks my heart that it’s come to this.
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Garrett M. Graff @vermontgmg.bsky.social · 19h
This is illegal and (a) it’s not even close to defensible and (b) shouldn’t be tolerated.
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BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
I think people are overindexing on character .ai's bankruptcy, but it is quite possible that the cost of the compute demand for 24-7 waifu and what people are willing to pay for it don't add up outside of a few whales. that's a very good thing. but also possible that cost will come down!
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Micah @rincewind.run · 14/10/2026
my take on this remains consistent: far more americans are bigoted on this front than I'd like, but transphobia is a luxury belief it's the kind of thing you can get people mad about if and only if they don't have real problems to worry about, and there is no shortage of real problems right now
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Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
theonion.com/man-who-drin...
Business Insider: AI
Palantir CTO says some AI researchers are taking up smoking because they expect AI to cure cancerThe Onion in 2013: Man Who Drinks 5 Diet Cokes Per Day Hoping Doctors Working On Cure For Whatever He’s Getting
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Ron Filipkowski @ronfilipkowski.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
Pretty clear that Trump/Hegseth are doing everything they can to force Ukraine to surrender to Putin by withholding all US assistance while actively helping fund the Russian war machine to kill as many civilians as possible including kids. What a dark, evil chapter in US history.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
@lilymasonphd.bsky.social's work is so important on this topic and I'm pleased to see it getting NYT attention
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Maria Popova @popovaprof.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
If reports of an end to intelligence sharing and Starlink access limits are confirmed, then the Trump admin has started helping Russia’s war effort. This a more harmful act against Ukraine than all the silly Witkoff/Kushner plans/trips put together. The US is trying to force Ukraine to surrender.
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Dare Obasanjo @carnage4life.bsky.social · 14/10/2026
It’s funny how the GOP campaigned on making things worse including a 922 page project plan for how much worse they would make things yet people are surprised about how bad things are now.
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
i fucking knew it "Among the main donors to civility initiatives, the researchers found, most also contributed to rightwing organizations like the Manhattan Institute, the Federalist Society and the Heritage Foundation"
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Well said! All this is a big part of why I left the field of polarization for the study of inequality years ago. My experiences within the discipline have convinced me it was the right choice.
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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Having a reckoning over the discipline’s obsession w/ polarization is long overdue. Here are my thoughts, which I’ve shared before. An important q is why so much of the polarization literature has been silent on the kinds of issues @lilymasonphd.bsky.social raises. substack.com/@thecolorlin...
substack.com
Beyond Polarization
My Remarks at Notre Dame's "Keeping the Republic" Conference
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Coach Finstock @coachfinstock.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Mean Girl asked to read the next passage in 10th grade Social Studies book out loud in front of the class because she got caught chewing gum
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Weird to put history, soc, and econ in one category while putting poli sci in another. Poli sci draws quite a bit from all three of those methodologies (and also psych)
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Duane Bratt🇨🇦 @duanebratt.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Kimberly Guilfoyle has been fired as US Ambassador to Greece. Not because of corruption. But because corruption is restricted to Trump and his family and she is no longer part of the family.
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e.w. niedermeyer @niedermeyer.online · 13/10/2026
turning this one up for the Elon haters... we don't need to go there, I promise you
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Read every word of this and share it.
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Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 13/10/2026
Former “free speech” crusaders have ushered in an unprecedented campaign of censorship in Texas universities, resulting in pulitzer winning books being banned, medical and scientific facts being suppressed, and entire fields of study deemed “woke” being eliminated www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/1...
Over the past decade, some conservatives have invoked principles of academic freedom and free speech in order to subvert both. These conservatives mocked “snowflakes” and “trigger warnings,” and then passed legislation making it illegal to hurt white students’ feelings by discussing historical or contemporary events. They invoked academic freedom and then began erasing fields of study they found politically inconvenient. They railed against “indoctrination,” and then argued that the state is entitled to control everything said in the classroom.
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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
DHS stormed into Minneapolis in pursuit of Miller’s ethnic cleansing project, was pushed out in humiliation after inflicting massive suffering, and ever since has tried to fix that ego injury by targeting us rhetorically and legally. Now they’re trying to strip the citizenship of our representative.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Remember: ICE lied so often about people posing threats to them, to justify their violence in Chicago, that a Chicago federal judge wrote it was "difficult, if not impossible, to believe almost anything" ICE said. Do you know what it takes to get a Fed district judge to WRITE THAT in a ruling?
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Jeremy Diamond ☕️ @dmnd.me · 12/10/2026
Imagine not knowing the national and global significance of IIT
>Indian institute of Technology in Bombay

That's a call center
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Warning… or enticement?
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Anna O. Law @unlawfulentries.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Keep talking, Ossoff. You’re making the centrist uncomfortable, which is a good thing. Brooks will never STFU, but his whining is funny.
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Rest in pieces
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Angry @angrystaffer.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
We’ve been talking about this for years. None of these far-right movements are organic.
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
The snack that smiles back!
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Rob Cruickshank @robcruickshank.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
Turns out these guys are real
A fish like a child would draw, no fins, just a tail an eye and a little smile
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Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
The right wing crash out over asian students celebrating at a UT football game reveals that all along the true goal of reactionary colorblindness was never “meritocracy” but resegregation. (Gift link) www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/1...
Color-blind meritocracy was, for many years, a successful rhetorical strategy for undermining antidiscrimination law and excluding Black people from selective schools and prominent positions. That’s why so many former segregationists seemed to suddenly embrace the concept in the 1970s. For them, resegregation—not color-blindness—was always the goal. As long as the success of some immigrants could be used to paint Black students as undeserving, color-blind meritocracy was good. But now many on the right see a new problem: too many Asian Americans in elite spaces. Their success, therefore, must be portrayed as a sinister theft of real (white) Americans’ birthright.

The declining “social trust” that the administration warned against is, of course, not the fault of these students. The problem is bigots like Bo French who cannot accept into their community people who do not share their race and religion, and those who monetize or otherwise profit from that bigotry by spreading it through social media. Like the proverbial child who kills their parents and asks for mercy as an orphan, they are responsible for the problem they are decrying.
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Russ The Tedious Ghost @russ41.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
graffiti in garbadella, rome (h/t @tomtomorrow.bsky.social )
Photo of black graffiti on a wall reading

"MAMDANI 1
GIORGIA TRUMP 0"
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Masha Krupenkin @mashakr.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
It's not like that at Stanford either!
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