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John Pfaff

@johnpfaff.bsky.social
45K followers 754 following 18K posts

Professor at Fordham Law. Prisons and criminal justice quant. I'm not contrarian, the data are. Author of Locked In. New stuff at johnfpfaff.com.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 23h
Too young to legally consent to sign a contract. But old enough to consent away where they want to live to be shipped someplace random by a government that hates them. In a just world, Hollad would need to annex half of Belgium to find room for the expanded Hague prison thus all calls for.
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
When they get back in power, Democrats need to go all-in on higher education. We need a campaign of reinvestment in public universities across the country that makes the Morrill Land-Grant Act look like nothing by comparison *and* a GI Bill of Rights-style program of tuition grants.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Kafka: F*** it, I'm out.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
“Manipulated dog.” So these aren’t even pretextual stops. These are just “No Constitutional Whatsoever” stops. If we can’t stop you, we’ll make up a reason to. If we can’t berate you into a search, we will nakedly fabricate one. Every drug conviction in Bexar should be challenged. Like in MA:
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
So what you’re saying is that Trump thinks he needs to rally the base to hold off the Dems in a state he won by 7 points?
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Between 2009 and 2019, % of prisoners who were non-Hispanic white fell from 39% to 32%, while the percent who were Hispanic rose from 16% to 22% (and the % who were non-Hispanic Black fell from 42% to 33%). Is there any data out there on whether rising %H = real rise, or change in reporting?
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Kylie Eleison @gonebabygone.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Your mom trying to remember the name of that podcast
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
p(dreary) = 1.000 for this event for sure.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Even more striking: In 2008, 95,000 people were admitted to CA prisons due to parole violations. In 2011, it was 60,000. In 2012, one year later, it was 8,000. In 2019, before Covid, it was 4,500. That's a NINETY-FIVE PERCENT DECLINE in parole-violation admissions. Just ... eliminated them.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
In 2008, California admitted 140,000 people to prison. In 2011, it admitted 97,000. In 2019, before Covid, it admitted 34,000. That's a SEVENTY-FIVE PERCENT reduction in admissions. Yet we almost never talk about California's remarkable Realignment reforms.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
If long sentences were key to driving US prison populations, then sudden declines in admissions--like what we see in 2020--should not be accompanied by near-instant, almost-identical declines in releases (esp since we didn't do any sort of mass releases due to Covid). And yet ....
Graph showing tight co-movement of admits and releases from 1978 to 2021.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Calling it now: Centrist pundits: Trump wins in 2024 by one point: “all of American culture has changed tonight!” Trump is so hated that Wyoming elects a Black lesbian Democrat as governor in 2026: “now, let’s not be hasty abt seeing anything national in these strange local stories.”
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Total private construction is about $1.6 TRILLION per year. Total data center construction is about $50 BILLION. So data centers are ~3% of all construction. There's no real crowding out here. Comparing total spending change from such RADICALLY different baserates tells us almost nothing.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
It'd be really ironic if Trump ends up winning a Nobel Prize only for doing the one thing he hates the most. Peak, gold-plated Failson.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Here's an interesting graph: percent of state admits, either violent or drug. Even if we want to talk about what drives ADMISSIONS, in many states since 1991, and in even more states today, violent crimes are generally as if not more significant than drug crimes.
Multiple graphs showing the point made in the post. It's too hard to describe in detail, unfortunately. Sorry!
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Here's an interesting graph: percent of state admits, either violent or drug. Even if we want to talk about what drives ADMISSIONS, in many states since 1991, and in even more states today, violent crimes are generally as if not more significant than drug crimes.
Multiple graphs showing the point made in the post. It's too hard to describe in detail, unfortunately. Sorry!
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
SCOTUS delenda est. It is democracy, or SCOTUS. They have made it very clear that there is no other choice. Expand it, reverse its worst opinions, and then ruthlessly strip it of jurisdiction. Don't trust an expanded SCOTUS in the long run.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Thanks, prominent data repository, for using * instead of something like NA for blanks. So when I quickly do a find-all-and-replace in Excel (yes, I know, just being lazy, this is def my fault for that), and tell it to replace all * with NA, I get a sheet of ... sigh.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Writers getting lazy with the names here, honestly.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Remember after the NYC mayoral Dem primary, when everyone on here was begging for The Discourse to stop talking about Mamdani non-stop (which, even as a NYCer myself? def so-signed). Now he's the subject of UNGA speeches. He's NEVER going away. Ever. From ANY discourse.
reuters.com
Netanyahu expected to berate New York's Mamdani in 'campaign speech' at UN
The feud highlights the Israeli leader's growing isolation ahead of elections at home.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Well, I'm definitely requesting a new office now (since my current one is about three door's down from Olivier's).
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The Kavanaugh Stops were a particularly egregious example of SCOTUS members just making up facts to fit their desired policy outcomes, that they then get to enshrine in law. But they've been doing it FOREVER. And the legal community hasn't just shrugged it off. It FINDS IT FUNNY.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Oh, I’ll legitimately fight for the fourth one. I’m a birthright citizenship absolutist, and think we should generally err on the side of more voting, not less. I think cryptids born on US soil count as citizens. I’m sure @anthonymkreis.bsky.social can 13th century British support.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Clearly no one in this administration doesn't understand anything involving a cross. Their view of Christianity is abhorrent. And now they show they don't comprehend cross-subsidization either.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
"Our insurance system isn't in the quintessential self-selection death spiral? Let me get a shotgun."
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I've been a huge fan of Adrian Tchaikovsky's City of Last Chances series. The first book in particular, but also the third, meet my fav category for a book: a story where the city itself is as much a core character as the people who live in it.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 22/09/2026
whenever i hear some variation on "but what if trump does X or Y or Z" i think of this ulysses s. grant remark to a subordinate during the wilderness campaign.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The Prison Planet Gerrymander: How High Republic Prison Siting Dilutes Twi’lekian and Other Smaller-Species Representation in the Galactic Senate.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Y’all. The US debt is $40 trillion-with-a-t. I do not think we can raise that selling hammer swings. This is not a serious policy proposal, and should not be treated as such. Saying we need to tear down the ballroom and arch and strip off the WH gold is. This is just a sarcastic venting.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
If a Dem POTUS wants to wipe out the ballooning debt Trump has “endowed” us with, all they’ll need to do is auction off opportunities to burn or tear down the MAGA monuments to itself. How much could they charge per sledge hammer blow to the ballroom? Or to burn this ugly-on-its-own-terms thing?
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Oh, man. The K-Mart or something similar by my house when I was a kid had a demo Apple IIe that had this game on it, and I used to play it all the time when we went there. And yes, I know that sentence gets more and more archaic with each word.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Just reiterating a point I’ve made before: Future Congressional spending bills should mandate that executive branch agencies cannot post any images or memes from any govt computer or any govt account. And only informational posts, period. The sole exception is the Consumer Product Safety Comm’n.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
So, apparently Converse decided to celebrate the 70th anniversary of its Chuck Taylor’s w an ad that … is clearly, inarguably a reference to lynching. By a man in what must be Klan robes. The ad is in the link (not posting a screenshot, bc … obv). There‘s no “plausible deniability“ here.
washingtonpost.com
A Converse sneaker ad provokes horror and backlash
A photo promoting the Chuck 70 X sneaker seemed to depict a lynching.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
A lot. I mean, have you read our criminal codes (I have)? You know how much behavior we excessively criminalize? Also, like, the costs of getting any measure of crime to zero are appalling. Wannabe "tough guys" implausibly cosplaying as John Wayne. And yes, yes, I get it's not hypocrisy:
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Two things I think always worth noting abt the Horton ad, one pessimistic and the other less so. 1. Pessimistically, here's the infamous Horton ad. It was considered deeply racist at the time. But by today's standards? Doubt it would crack the top 20 most racist ads. That's real backsliding.
youtube.com
Willie Horton 1988 Attack Ad
YouTube video by llehman84
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Jesus. Back in 2015, the Bureau of Justice Statistics--whose ppl do amazing work--had a budget of $41 million, which was lower than previous years. Its current NOMINAL budget is $33 million. In 2015 terms, that's $24 million. We've basically cut its budget in half, between real cuts and inflation.
static.klipy.com
Ostrich Head in Sand (Blind Man)
Alt: Ostrich Head in Sand (Blind Man)
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The only rational explanation for the FBI's Crime Data Explorer is that I've died and ended up in the Bad Place.
static.klipy.com
Kristen Bell in The Good Place: This Is The Bad Place
Alt: Kristen Bell in The Good Place: This Is The Bad Place
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
And those of us who sometimes laugh when we are stressed or feel like the situation is awkward make things even worse (even with people who know our laughing habits).
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Bret Stephens, our Temu Pauline Kael.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Random q for people w college-bound aged kids (or who have otherwise had to deal with the application process): Is there any info out there on the format a transcript needs in order for STARS to auto-upload? Manual entry seems SO tedious, but it keeps refusing to read my kid's version.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Fascinating that a Harris +8 county voted in a far-right sheriff in the same election. Also interesting: he barely won, by ~2 points, or under 8,000 votes... ... but there were 50,000 people who voted in the presidential but not the sheriff race: so INSIDE-THE-POLLING-BOOTH nonvoters.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I already admitted to liking Yanni and his PBS concert a few days back, so I have no rep for musical taste to protect: “And I don’t know what to do with my hands (it’s awkward!)” is one of my fav lyrics of all time. It’s that “it’s awkward” that kills me. So absolutely true (for me).
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The US has ~220 cops per 100,000 people. Trinidad, TX, has a pop of 860 and ~7 full-time equivalent cops. That's a rate of over 800 cops per 100,000! And they were spending ~35% of the local budget on them. For policing so bad the mayor is quoted saying he wasn't surprised by the closure! Why?!
Trinidad budget, showing $277K out of $790K spent on the police.
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Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
One side of this war has an elected legislature but it doesn't really have any power compared to the supreme leader and the council of guardian jurists, and the other is Iran.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Any threat to voting is bad. It all really is. But perspective matters too. The most vulnerable GOPer is prob Mike Lawler in NY-17. NY-17 has well over one hundred Election Day polling places (I stopped counting at 100, and there were a lot of dots left). That's one vulnerable seat.
data.gis.ny.gov
NYS Elections Districts and Polling Locations
Polling Sites and Election Districts for all of New York state.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I always get sucked into Yudkowsky Discourse bc I desperately believe I'll come across the post or article that admits its all an Andy Kaufman caliber bit of performance art but also know that it's all actually real and that's a real solid blow to my belief that the world is at least vague rational.
static.klipy.com
Ptosha Storey in The Oval: I Can't Believe This Is Real
Alt: Ptosha Storey in The Oval: I Can't Believe This Is Real
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
These are paragraphs from the same article. The first lays out the basic story: guy is repeatedly hired and fired before ICE hires him. The second is an ICE officer saying "firing basically ends your career" without any rebuttal ... despite it being demonstrably false, in the same article.
Before getting hired by ICE, the person had been fired twice and rejected elsewhere, before a small town hired him.Officer saying getting fired ends your career.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Really annoying to see, again--bc this has been consistent for a while now--that we really should replace "Ok Boomer" with "Ok Xer." Cause ... 45-64 is basically all Xers. The only age cohort still leaning Trump. Alex P. Keaton was supposed to be a send-up, not a role model.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
That's like saying a pickpocket got into a "property dispute" with the person whose wallet he stole. The Kennedy Center's name is established by STATUTE. A judge MANDATED that his name, put up illegally and--again, in violation OF THE LAW--be taken down. Come ON, @apnews.com. This is NUTS.
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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
This is not necessarily high up on the lists of reforms we need to impose on SCOTUS, but I think Congress should amend SCOTUS's budget so that it only funds clerk salaries for clerks with 10+ years of real-world experience (academics, lawyers, even non-law ppl like scientists or finance types).
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