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Dr Luke Mansillo

@lukemansillo.com
890 followers 2.5K following 269 posts

Political scientist: public opinion, political behaviour, survey research methods, advanced democracy elections, Australian politics and racial politics. Penchant for Bayesian statistics. www.lukemansillo.com

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Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
[Christopher M. Federico] @chrispps.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
thank God all of the undergraduates arriving on the shores of higher education right now struggle in no way whatsoever with writing
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Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Cosmopolitan citizens often express more resentment and less empathy toward communitarian citizens than vice versa link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Seeing Divides: Citizens’ Biased Perceptions of Political Cleavages - Political Behavior
Citizens’ perceptions of political divides shape democratic processes, yet we know little about how these divides are mentally represented. This article develops a conceptual framework that integrates...
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Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
The death of Brigitte Bardot necessitated the update of this marvelous chart. Only three people mentioned in Billy Joel's banger "We Didn't Start The Fire" are still alive. Source: buff.ly/cWkphRB
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Danielle Terrazas Williams @drdanielletw.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Job Opportunity! University of Zurich Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences Professorship for Africa (open rank) Focus: Sub-Saharan African societies and their complex relations with Europe and the world, late 19th-early 21st century. networks.h-net.org/jobs/69543/u...
networks.h-net.org
University of Zurich - Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences - Professorship for Africa – Europe in the Long 20th Century (open rank) | H-Net
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects: -"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size" -"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant" academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
academic.oup.com
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
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Anna-Sophie Heinze @asheinze.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
🎉 New publication 🎉 Why do #youngpeople vote for the #AfD? This question has kept our research project busy for quite some time, so I'm beyond excited that our first article - co-authored with @timonscheuer.bsky.social - is now out in #GermanPolitics! 🤩 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Beer Laimbill @beerlaimbill.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
NYT: “Epstein emails a distraction from the Republican shutdown victory” WSJ: “We estimate the Epstein files to be 67% Trump by weight”
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Walter Olson @walterolson.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
"This assault on higher education is best understood as a means of destroying a locus of political opposition."
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European Consortium for Political Research @ecpr.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
⚙️ #ecprjs26 Workshop directors 🎬 @beatrizlbuarque.bsky.social & @scopelliti.bsky.social 💡 Seeks Papers exploring the European far-right politics of truth in digital spaces buff.ly/7Zm46uu ✔️ @ecpr-ead.bsky.social endorsed ⌛ Submit by 10 Dec #CallforPapers #AI #PoliticalParties #Policymaking
buff.ly
The European Far-Right Politics of Truth in Digital Spaces
Joint Sessions of Workshops, 7 – 10 April 2026, University of Innsbruck
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Paolo Crosetto @paolocrosetto.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma. It's *scientific publishing*. We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing. Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820 Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_... Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
The race to churn out papers is a systemic problem. Early career scholars are desperate to get more papers to compete in the academic job market. This can make it hard for faculty mentors hard to reduce their output unless they shrink their lab (which removes opportunities from next generation).
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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
I don’t agree with everything, but this is a very thoughtful and, indeed, thought-provoking post open.substack.com/pub/laurenzg...
open.substack.com
Strategies of Non-Populist Parties
Why most of them are wrong and how they can do better
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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Anthropologists have discovered a lost tribe that uses the "one, two, many" system of counting.
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Dr Christine Cheng @christinecheng.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
A two-headed coin. Isn’t it the perfect symbol of Trumpian politics? Heads, I win. Heads, I win. Again. Yes, the odds are forever stacked against you!
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Orin Kerr @orinkerr.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Here's a law professor lamenting the fads in legal theory popular among law professors that become popular for a decade or two and then fade away— written in 1950. Specifically, it's Roscoe Pound, reflecting on trends since he became a lawyer in 1890. jle.aals.org/cgi/viewcont...
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
free markets, amirite?
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Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 03/11/2025
Also remarkable: the polarisation of young UK voters. Top two parties supported now Reform and Greens on.ft.com/4qKurLm Young Britons’ attitudes hardening on crime and welfare
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Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
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Ryan D. Williamson @ryandane.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
global.oup.com
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 29/10/2025
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report. Here is the report: aapor.org/wp-content/u... And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
When assessing the 2025 wins and losses, it’s important to also put them in the context of the 2023 wins and losses. Compared to 2021 D66 +3 PVV +8 GL/PvdA +3 VVD -11 CDA +4
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Matt Leys @mattleys.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Dutch parliament reads like the results of a blood test
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Greg Jericho @grogsgamut.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
The ACTU’s Liam O’Brien talking about the rort that is the PRRT #RevenueSummit
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Guardian Australia @australia.theguardian.com · 28/10/2025
Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers
theguardian.com
Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers
Developers flock to build ‘affordable’ housing – but are poised to reap benefits while tenants could pay 50% of post-tax income in rent * Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast A small block of units on Clovelly Road built in 2021 was granted extra floor space so the developer could add five affordable units, taking the total development to 13. The units, three minutes’ walk from the beach, with parking and a bus stop outside, are in a highly desirable spot. But “affordable” they are not. Continue reading...
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Paul Kelly @pjthinker.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Post-liberalism has distinctive British and US sources but increasingly the US elements are driving changes in British politics - see my new book Against Post Liberalism to find out why and to see why that might be a problem… @lsegovernment.bsky.social @politybooks.bsky.social #Postliberalism
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
The most Republican guy is the guy who owns the used car dealership, a tanning salon, and a boat in a place that has been economically decimated by deindustrialization See, for instance:
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Sounds eerily like what happened in Scotland and helped lead to the SNP sweeping the board in Westminster seats - amazing that Labour didn't learn that hard lesson! (Source: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...)
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Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Hypervisible @hypervisible.blacksky.app · 23/10/2025
At some point it has to become clear that this tech exists is to create a more toxic society and enrich its owners. These uses are not aberrations but rather the entire purpose.
rollingstone.com
OpenAI's Sora 2 Can Generate Videos of Celebrities Appearing to Shout Racial Slurs
OpenAI's Sora 2 video generation model can be exploited to push misinformation and depict public figures behaving badly despite promised guardrails.
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Dr. Mike P. Moffatt @mikepmoffatt.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
Of all the housing charts not made by MMI, this one is my favourite. It shows how, despite rhetoric, housing shortages aren't a global phenomenon, but they do seem to be an Anglo-American one.
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Laura Jacobs @lcjacobs89.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Now out in Party Politics 🎉 Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing. 👉 A legitimisation effect. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
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Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
Chatbots offer explicit vote advice ahead of elections. A simple prompt leads to receiving an advice for the Dutch October 29 elections ⬇️ The Dutch Data Protection Authority concluded: AI chatbots are not transparent, they are not auditable, and providers should prevent use as vote advice.
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Patrick Iber @patrickiber.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
From the article referenced below: tldr esp. in authoritarian systems, mediocrities and worse tend to go into the secret police b/c those with better performance have better opportunities elsewhere, so secret police gets the dregs who are extra-dependable because the thing they can offer is loyalty
Regimes, on the other hand, have good reasons to ad- mit underperformers to their key coercive unit and to not counteract the self-selection of such officials. From the perspective of leaders, underachievers are beneficial be- cause they must diligently work toward the autocrat's in- terests to retain their career chances. For example, Alexan- dru Drâghici, the former interior minister of Romania, was well aware that his secret police agents "had a fairly low level of training and general knowledge, but that these shortcomings were compensated for by their powerful revolutionary enthusiasm" (Deletant 2005, 304). By con- trast, leaders who assign high-performing officials to serve in the secret police must fear that their subordinates will not execute unpleasant orders. Having lucrative career options, competent officials make unreliable secret police agents, as they are likely to stay passive when the regime
is under attack (Zakharov 2016).
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Maya Sen @mayasen.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
Pleased to share that the Kennedy School has been authorized to conduct a faculty search in American politics This is as an extraordinary opportunity for us - please share widely with your networks and consider applying academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/15418
academicpositions.harvard.edu
Professor of Public Policy (American Politics)
Harvard Kennedy School seeks a scholar of the highest distinction to appoint as a professor of public policy, focusing on American politics, elections, and policy. We particularly welcome applications...
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 19/10/2025
I discussed speculation of Barnaby Joyce's defection to One Nation this morning www.youtube.com/watch?v=cch1...
youtube.com
Hanson welcomes Joyce’s speculated defection to One Nation | ABC NEWS
YouTube video by ABC News (Australia)
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Tim Stephens @proftimstephens.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
“A conservation charity known for its anti-renewables stance has made submissions to federal and state inquiries that name non-existent government authorities and a nonexistent windfarm, and cite scientific articles that the supposed publisher says don’t exist” www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
theguardian.com
Queensland anti-renewables group cited nonexistent papers in inquiry submissions using AI, publisher says
Exclusive: Rainforest Reserves Australia has published submissions naming nonexistent government authorities and a nonexistent windfarm
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
I’ve come to understand that a lot of it comes from deceiving senior citizens open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
open.substack.com
Spam PACs Raise Money by Deceiving Seniors
One 89-year-old woman made 7,532 donations totaling $68,666
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
This important paper shows a precipitous drop in girls' achievement in recent years, closing a third of the gap with boys. Covid doesn't seem to be the smoking gun, but tiktok may be
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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
#Redbridge ALP 34 L-NP 29 Grn 11 ON 14 IND/other 12 Their 2PP 54.0 to ALP (+0.5) My estimate for these primaries 53.9 (-0.8) which is the lowest for this term from anyone Sep 25-Oct 7 www.afr.com/politics/fed...
afr.com
Coalition’s catch-22: Caught between teals and One Nation surge
Polls show One Nation’s vote is rising in regional and rural areas. But is pandering towards the far right a fool’s errand for the Coalition?
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Liam Hogan @liamhogan.id.au · 10/10/2025
Read this you muppets: Paul Musgrave on post-literacy musgrave.substack.com/p/a-post-lit...
musgrave.substack.com
A Post-Literate Society is a Too-Literal Society
Directness is a virtue and subtlety is lost
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Patrick Dunleavy @patrickdunleavy.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Peter Atwater “With each passing day, the AI space looks more and more like the USA’s home mortgage securitization at the peak of the 2007-8 housing bubble with its overlapping series of capital conveyor belts.”
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Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Do generous welfare policies foster political trust? Matthijs Gillissen, @silkegoubin.bsky.social & Anna Ruelens examine the long-term effects of welfare generosity on trust in political institutions. Read more: buff.ly/rxgfboR @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
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Teresa Völker @tevoelker.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
New paper out with @dasalgon.bsky.social: “Far-Right Agenda Setting: How the Far Right influences the Political Mainstream” doi.org/10.1017/S1475676525100066 #openaccess in @ejprjournal.bsky.social🧵
Abstract
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Houston Political Science @houstonpolsci.bsky.social · 04/10/2025
Timely research from Prof. Ollerenshaw. Read about it here!
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Kevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social. We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Plot showing perception of voter ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. Republicans are drifting slightly to be more conservative, Democrats are mostly staying in one place. Plot showing messaging ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. There is increasing separation between parties over time, with Republicans becoming messaging more moderately during the Trump era and then shifting to the right during Biden.
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Maria Sobolewska @profsob.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
An important new paper from my talented, but BlueSky-less PHD Jose Lopes www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe
In recent decades, educational expansion has produced a large swathe of university graduates which labour markets are increasingly less able to absorb…
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Chicago Tribune @chicagotribune.com · 03/10/2025
From the Editorial Board: Neuroscientists have found that when people read, their brains don’t just process words — they simulate the story world. By contrast, social media rarely demands such deep simulation.
trib.al
Editorial: A society that stops reading stops thinking
Daily reading for pleasure in the U.S. has fallen more than 40% over the past 20 years — roughly 3% per year, according to researchers at the University of Florida and University College London.
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London Review of Books @lrb.co.uk · 01/10/2025
In the latest episode of On Politics, @piercepenniless.bsky.social is joined by Anthony Seldon and Henry Hill to consider what or who is to blame for the Conservative Party’s dire situation and whether it will still be around to celebrate its bicentennial in 2034. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o...
lrb.co.uk
Podcast: James Butler, Henry Hill and Anthony Seldon · On Politics: The Death of the Conservative Party?
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ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 01/10/2025
"In 2012, 60 trans-related articles were published by Britain’s media. By 2022, it was more than 7,500, according to figures from Trans Media Watch. The media is not responding to public rage against vulnerable minorities; it is helping to create it." www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/709...
prospectmagazine.co.uk
What is a reactionary centrist, and does the UK have them?
A term favoured by US progressives can help us understand Britain’s drift to the right
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 01/10/2025
Talk about an opening paragraph. About sums it up!
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