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Dr Luke Mansillo

@lukemansillo.com
890 followers 2.5K following 269 posts

Political scientist: public opinion, political behaviour, survey research methods, advanced democracy elections, Australian politics and racial politics. Penchant for Bayesian statistics. www.lukemansillo.com

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Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
[Christopher M. Federico] @chrispps.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
thank God all of the undergraduates arriving on the shores of higher education right now struggle in no way whatsoever with writing
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Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Cosmopolitan citizens often express more resentment and less empathy toward communitarian citizens than vice versa link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Seeing Divides: Citizens’ Biased Perceptions of Political Cleavages - Political Behavior
Citizens’ perceptions of political divides shape democratic processes, yet we know little about how these divides are mentally represented. This article develops a conceptual framework that integrates...
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 16/05/2026
Also, excluding countries that haven’t won is a major bias - Australia, Slovakia Countries that no longer exist - Yugoslavia Countries VDem have ignored - Monaco
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 16/05/2026
I’d standardised the actual points within each year then add them …
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 27/01/2026
I call bullshit
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 27/01/2026
I am saying that we have no clue epistemically. I’ve done MRP quite a lot and very small model assumptions often change a lot of estimates especially when you’ve got multinominal outcomes where k>5, there are many geographic units j=150 and n is less than 20 for each k*j.
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 27/01/2026
We have no clue what went into the model. What was the rationale for its inclusion? How well the variables predict the dependent variable in the model? These are very basic things for model based inference.
media.tenor.com
a cartoon character says " or you could trade it all in "
ALT: a cartoon character says " or you could trade it all in "
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 27/01/2026
There are simulations for the credible ranges of primary votes and then there are credibility ranges for the preference flows. This is a lot of matrix multiplication upon models of unknown quality with data that one shows to not be of great quality with design-based inference
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 27/01/2026
My point is about the difficulties in modelling the heterogeneity of preferences with the necessarily complex models and the fancifully small samples for the demands of such a complex model. Why is no one reporting the credibility intervals of these estimates?
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 27/01/2026
There is a real knack to doing it …
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 27/01/2026
There are major assumptions that makes be made clear. How is the primary vote estimated then how is the preference flow estimated. And I highly doubt for 150 seats there is enough of sample used to credibly estimate these well with any robustness.
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 27/01/2026
Yes but this is conditional on the quality of the MRP model which Demos has not disclosed. I am skeptical of any MRP model without specified demographics, their interactions and the geographic level predictor. Model based inference needs more disclosure than the design based inference it rests on
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 09/01/2026
Holy cow? That is not an Australian expression.
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Simon Kuestenmacher @simongerman600.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
The death of Brigitte Bardot necessitated the update of this marvelous chart. Only three people mentioned in Billy Joel's banger "We Didn't Start The Fire" are still alive. Source: buff.ly/cWkphRB
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 09/12/2025
Are there so few things to do at the telegraph this was a priority?
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 06/12/2025
What is this cheapening of Isaiah Berlin?
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Danielle Terrazas Williams @drdanielletw.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Job Opportunity! University of Zurich Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences Professorship for Africa (open rank) Focus: Sub-Saharan African societies and their complex relations with Europe and the world, late 19th-early 21st century. networks.h-net.org/jobs/69543/u...
networks.h-net.org
University of Zurich - Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences - Professorship for Africa – Europe in the Long 20th Century (open rank) | H-Net
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
Needed - larger samples, more realism about (the lack of) heterogeneous treatment effects: -"less than a third of proposed hypotheses were supported... the largest predictor of positive exp. results was sample size" -"moderation hypotheses were rarely significant" academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
academic.oup.com
An Audit of Social Science Survey Experiments
Abstract. Survey experiments have become a popular methodology for causal inference across the social sciences. We study the efficacy of survey experiment
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Anna-Sophie Heinze @asheinze.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
🎉 New publication 🎉 Why do #youngpeople vote for the #AfD? This question has kept our research project busy for quite some time, so I'm beyond excited that our first article - co-authored with @timonscheuer.bsky.social - is now out in #GermanPolitics! 🤩 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 20/11/2025
Decades of doing politics without ideas, meta narratives etc …
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Beer Laimbill @beerlaimbill.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
NYT: “Epstein emails a distraction from the Republican shutdown victory” WSJ: “We estimate the Epstein files to be 67% Trump by weight”
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 14/11/2025
You could have said that since Francis Fukuyama wrote the End of History
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Walter Olson @walterolson.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
"This assault on higher education is best understood as a means of destroying a locus of political opposition."
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European Consortium for Political Research @ecpr.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
⚙️ #ecprjs26 Workshop directors 🎬 @beatrizlbuarque.bsky.social & @scopelliti.bsky.social 💡 Seeks Papers exploring the European far-right politics of truth in digital spaces buff.ly/7Zm46uu ✔️ @ecpr-ead.bsky.social endorsed ⌛ Submit by 10 Dec #CallforPapers #AI #PoliticalParties #Policymaking
buff.ly
The European Far-Right Politics of Truth in Digital Spaces
Joint Sessions of Workshops, 7 – 10 April 2026, University of Innsbruck
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Paolo Crosetto @paolocrosetto.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma. It's *scientific publishing*. We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing. Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820 Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_... Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
The race to churn out papers is a systemic problem. Early career scholars are desperate to get more papers to compete in the academic job market. This can make it hard for faculty mentors hard to reduce their output unless they shrink their lab (which removes opportunities from next generation).
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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
I don’t agree with everything, but this is a very thoughtful and, indeed, thought-provoking post open.substack.com/pub/laurenzg...
open.substack.com
Strategies of Non-Populist Parties
Why most of them are wrong and how they can do better
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 10/11/2025
But can you profit from it?
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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Anthropologists have discovered a lost tribe that uses the "one, two, many" system of counting.
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Dr Christine Cheng @christinecheng.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
A two-headed coin. Isn’t it the perfect symbol of Trumpian politics? Heads, I win. Heads, I win. Again. Yes, the odds are forever stacked against you!
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Orin Kerr @orinkerr.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Here's a law professor lamenting the fads in legal theory popular among law professors that become popular for a decade or two and then fade away— written in 1950. Specifically, it's Roscoe Pound, reflecting on trends since he became a lawyer in 1890. jle.aals.org/cgi/viewcont...
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
free markets, amirite?
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 08/11/2025
I’m reminded of Converse … there is a lot of knowledge missing if Australia is an attractive model for the UK - what vast supply of minerals does the UK have?
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 07/11/2025
Urgh
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Reposted by Dr Luke Mansillo
Joel Suss @joelsuss.ft.com · 03/11/2025
Also remarkable: the polarisation of young UK voters. Top two parties supported now Reform and Greens on.ft.com/4qKurLm Young Britons’ attitudes hardening on crime and welfare
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Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
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Ryan D. Williamson @ryandane.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
For anyone interested in nationalization, have we got a book for you: global.oup.com/academic/pro...
global.oup.com
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 29/10/2025
It is finally finished and released! I was proud to be a member of the Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling, and to play just a small role in producing this report. Here is the report: aapor.org/wp-content/u... And here is the Executive Summary: aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 30/10/2025
I’m very interested
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
When assessing the 2025 wins and losses, it’s important to also put them in the context of the 2023 wins and losses. Compared to 2021 D66 +3 PVV +8 GL/PvdA +3 VVD -11 CDA +4
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Matt Leys @mattleys.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Dutch parliament reads like the results of a blood test
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 29/10/2025
I read “vets” as veterinarians not veterans before seeing the article.
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Greg Jericho @grogsgamut.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
The ACTU’s Liam O’Brien talking about the rort that is the PRRT #RevenueSummit
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Guardian Australia @australia.theguardian.com · 28/10/2025
Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers
theguardian.com
Discounted but not ‘affordable’: NSW policy to build cheaper rental apartments a boon for developers
Developers flock to build ‘affordable’ housing – but are poised to reap benefits while tenants could pay 50% of post-tax income in rent * Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast A small block of units on Clovelly Road built in 2021 was granted extra floor space so the developer could add five affordable units, taking the total development to 13. The units, three minutes’ walk from the beach, with parking and a bus stop outside, are in a highly desirable spot. But “affordable” they are not. Continue reading...
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Paul Kelly @pjthinker.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Post-liberalism has distinctive British and US sources but increasingly the US elements are driving changes in British politics - see my new book Against Post Liberalism to find out why and to see why that might be a problem… @lsegovernment.bsky.social @politybooks.bsky.social #Postliberalism
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
The most Republican guy is the guy who owns the used car dealership, a tanning salon, and a boat in a place that has been economically decimated by deindustrialization See, for instance:
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Sounds eerily like what happened in Scotland and helped lead to the SNP sweeping the board in Westminster seats - amazing that Labour didn't learn that hard lesson! (Source: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...)
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Hypervisible @hypervisible.blacksky.app · 23/10/2025
At some point it has to become clear that this tech exists is to create a more toxic society and enrich its owners. These uses are not aberrations but rather the entire purpose.
rollingstone.com
OpenAI's Sora 2 Can Generate Videos of Celebrities Appearing to Shout Racial Slurs
OpenAI's Sora 2 video generation model can be exploited to push misinformation and depict public figures behaving badly despite promised guardrails.
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Dr Luke Mansillo @lukemansillo.com · 24/10/2025
New Zealand has people feeling to Australia … there is a lot masked by this
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