iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 3h

For anyone hanging on for my Clarence voting patterns article before voting, it will be out sometime late tonight (finally). I don't think it will scare anyone off voting for anyone they already wanted to #lgtas

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 7h

A large number of "blue" HCC candidates are running a dumb as a bagful of hammers "common sense candidates" how to vote that could cause left candidates to be elected. #lgtas

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 10h

AI would have struggled to write a worse article than this contradictory feebleminded pile of crap by Simon Benson archive.li/zyqtW

archive.li

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 21h

Ladies, gentlemen and others, I give you the guy who supported then in effect brought down the 2024-5 Rockliff Government, losing his own seat as a result. #politas #lgtas

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 21h

The Daily Mail has published a #pollshapedobject attributed to the Greens and supposed to show One Nation ahead on primaries in the great seat of Footscray. I understand both the claimed source and claimed sample size of whatever this is are disputed. archive.is/UUWUA

archive.is

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 22h

#RedbridgeAccent ALP 28 L-NP 21 ON 29 Grn 11 Oth 11 Their 2PP respondent prefs 54-46 to L-NP (!!???) (+2) Last election prefs 50-50 (L-NP up 2) My conversion 51.2 to ALP (-0.5) Their ALP vs ON respondent 52 to ALP (=) My conversion ALP trails 49.9-50.1 (ALP down 1.1)

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

This guy. Candidate who I have classified in the "Broadly opposed/sceptical/cautious:" category has claimed my article reads as if he is pro cable car. (From Respect the Mountain FB page where I have just given him a massive serve.) #lgtas

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

OK this is very back of envelope but I've had a go at classifying the position on the proposed cable car of every candidate for Hobart. #lgtas kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/09/hoba...

kevinbonham.blogspot.com

Hobart Council Candidate And Election Guide 2026

Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Don't think it has ever taken me so little time to update my candidate guide for Hobart Council post the release of the candidate statements. #lgtas

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Strongly recommend everyone who cares about natural history and cultural research in Tasmania to sign this if you haven't already. It's a parliament website petition so you won't be signing up for spam. #politas haepetitions.parliament.tas.gov.au/haepet/Home/...

haepetitions.parliament.tas.gov.au

Petition Details - Tasmania Parliament E-Petitions

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Party registration news Vic (state): A mysterious party called The Republican Make Australia Great Again has now been registered. #springst

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

#DemosAU Vic (state) - released on 28th not new, just first time I've had time to note it. ALP 25 L-NP 30 Grn 14 ON 20 Ind/others 11 2PP (mixed method) 52-48 to L-NP (my estimate about the same, 52.3) #springst

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

#Freshwater Vic (state) ALP 24 L-NP 29 ON 22 Grn 14 others 11. 2PP 53-47 to L-NP (I get same). Poll has an issue importance question that shows "Youth crime & bail laws" on top but note "cost of living" is omitted from the list so it's really only second place. #springst

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This is the one LegCo lead candidate they were late announcing because they confused themselves about which house Pickering was running in.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Appears there is a proposal to merge the Vertebrate and Invertebrate Curator positions at TMAG. If the government is looking for actual efficiency savings in the public service, just sack everyone including every minister who thinks this is acceptable. #politas

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

#EMRS in the field for at least a few days with: - Hobart council most important issue (write-in) - HCC Lord Mayor voting intention first three places #lgtas

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Looking forward to hopefully being home from the Samarkand FIDE congress soon return leg will have been approx 55.5 hours in transit

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

David Shoebridge elected Greens leader! IMO he has unique abilities that make him a very effective parliamentary performer (esp in committee) but let's see how he and party go now he'll be top public face of the party.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

#Essential ALP 29 L-NP 22 ON 25 Grn 12 Ind/other 6 (too low) undecided 6 Their "2PP+" by mostly respondent prefs 48-46 to ALP (=51.1, +3.7) My conversion 52.5 to ALP (+2.8) My ALP vs ON estimate 52.5 to ALP (+1) See Essential disclaimers kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/07/esse...

kevinbonham.blogspot.com

Essential Report Microblogging Disclaimers

Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Couldn't happen to a nicer "group" of possibly zero actual Hobart residents - "Hobart First" signs have apparently been deemed by HCC to lack planning permission for not falling clearly within the electoral advertising exemptions. Or something like that. #lgtas #politas

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

#Morgan ALP 26 L-NP 22.5 ON 25.5 Grn 14.5 Ind/other 11 2PP respondent prefs 52.5 to ALP vs L-NP last election 52 to ALP my conversion 51.7 ALP vs ON respondent prefs 53.5 to ALP my conversion 51.8

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Oh wow I did miss something while on my way back from overseas - Larissa Waters quits Greens leadership citing health reasons.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This year's FIDE (chess) elections will go down in history as the most expensive ever. I believe the total spend by mainly the top two campaigns will come out to close to 100 million AUD spent on fighting over c. 200 votes.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

FIDE Presidential election deal is off to the court of disputed returns. Wadim Rosenstein has filed an appeal alleging that the deal before the second round breaches the electoral rules.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The FIDE General Assembly is over after some bunch of miscreants (who me? You trust me, don't you, Mattie?) called quorum. In my case, my motive was to stop an advisory motion that had previously been passed in an invalid form from being repassed under false assumptions re quorum.

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Reposted by Kevin Bonham

Anthony Zougras @anthonyzougras.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

This week marks the end of Nick Xenophon's political party legacy (statewise atleast) as SA-Best has been voluntarily de-registered. As such, I've written an introspective on the party and Xenophon's time/legacy in politics. anthonyhistoryrant.blogspot.com/2026/09/a-re... #saparli #auspol 🗃️

anthonyhistoryrant.blogspot.com

A Retrospective on Nick Xenophon and SA-Best | Or, how I learned to stop worrying and drive a small car around parliament

This week marks the end of Nick Xenophon's political party legacy (statewise atleast) as SA-Best has been voluntarily de-registered. As such...

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

BREAKING Timur Turlov is the new FIDE President defeating Wadim Rosenstein 110-85 on the second ballot.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

BREAKING: The defeated Buettner/Pein ticket in the FIDE election has endorsed Turlov/Anand in return for a range of concessions.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

#FIDE (World Chess Federation) elections updates live on my website through the next several hours, wifi willing, and also some on this thread. I expect the result of the first round of the election is about a few hours away. kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/09/2026...

kevinbonham.blogspot.com

2026 FIDE (World Chess Federation) Elections

Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

OK I went for a walk and discovered the location of the secret and exclusive Turlov ticket party. If either of the other candidates wants this info they can give me a Bentley.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Paper I co-authored describing four tiny species of snail including Australia's smallest described punctid has just been released. These are informally known as the "Minilaoma" group and I was the first to recognise them as distinct. www.taxonomyaustralia.org.au/_files/ugd/1...

taxonomyaustralia.org.au

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

This is just Barnaby freelancing and showing that any government propped up by One Nation will be chaos even in the negotiation phase. The average One Nation voter does not care less about Barnaby's rural boondoggles. www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...

smh.com.au

Joyce names price of One Nation backing Angus Taylor

Liberal MPs suggested Barnaby Joyce was making up the supposed talks about a hung parliament and believe his behaviour and public appearances were increasingly erratic.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

#DemosAU TAS (state) Lib 28 ALP 22 ON 21 GRN 15 IND 10 SFF 2 others 2. My writeup may be delayed by FIDE election matters #politas

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

FIDE news ahead of the election - the Ethics committee bribery case by Timur Turlov against Wadim Rosenstein and German Chess Federation produced hours of courtroom drama but has now been dismissed.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

#YouGov ALP 26 L-NP 21 ON 27 Grn 14 CSA 1 IND 6 other 5 Their 2PP (last election) 52 to ALP vs L-NP (=) my conversion 52.8 (+0.3) Their ALP vs ON (respondent prefs) 55 to ALP (+2) my conversion 52.3 (+2)

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Frontrunner for most disorganised candidate for HCC 2026 thinks I am biased against him because he didn't even have a web campaign presence at close of nominations, when will they ever learn. #lgtas

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Reposted by Kevin Bonham

Tantusar @tantusar.au · 22/09/2026

Some quick statistics: The retirement rate at these #lgtas elections is 28.52% compared to 29.28% in 2022. The elections for Break O'Day, Brighton, Burnie City and Central Coast have more renominees than there are now, post-reduction, available seats.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/09/hoba... Hobart Council Candidate and Election Guide. Initial release, still under some construction, may contain errors as written under difficult conditions. #lgtas #politas

kevinbonham.blogspot.com

Hobart Council Candidate And Election Guide 2026

Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Hmmm, continuing to write tedious HCC candidate bios tonight or free entry to the Bermuda Party, decisions decisions.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

This is a spectacular headlining stuffup by The Mercury, just incredibly dumb misrepresentation of an article's content. #politas #lgtas #ausmedia (HT @darmurp.bsky.social )

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

"As we saw in the Commonwealth election, we will be winning Green seats," - Not like that, they had a 2% primary vote swing to them and you are currently batting at around 12% against. #springst www.news24.com.au/politics/aus...

news24.com.au

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I am working on my Hobart candidate guide and hope to release it tomorrow, unsure whether before or after nominations drop. #politas #lgtas

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

#Morgan ALP 25 L-NP 21.5 ON 25.5 Grn 15.5 Ind/other 12.5 Their 2PP respondent prefs 53 to ALP vs L-NP (-2) last election 52 to ALP (-1) my conversion 52.1 (-.3) Their ALP vs ON respondent prefs 54 to ALP (-0.5) my conversion 52.0 (-.4)

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Reposted by Kevin Bonham

Leroy @leroylynch.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

#Newspoll federal poll. Here is the table graphic as it appears on page 4 of The Australian, 21 Sep 2026, including primary votes, leader approval ratings, leaders performance, ranked first PM, plus editorial stats comments. No TPP is given. The poll was of 1244 voters, taken 14-17 Sep. #auspol

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

#Newspoll ALP 27 L-NP 19 ON 30 Grn 13 others 11 No 2PP. My estimates ALP 52.2 vs L-NP (-0.9), ALP 50.2 vs ON (-0.9) This is a poor poll for Labor, Newspoll has been generally strong for them cf others in this term but not this one.

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 29 L-NP 24 ON 25 Green 11 Ind 5 other 5, very similar to previous poll. My 2PP estimate 55.2 to ALP. #nswpol (I previously mistakenly tagged this as DemosAU while travelling)

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

DemosAU net ratings for former PMs, Hawke top, Morrison at the bottom. demosau.com/wp-content/u...

demosau.com

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Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

#DemosAU ALP 28 L-NP 20 ON 26 Grn 13 Ind/Other 13 No 2PP. My estimates for this poll ALP 53.3 (+3.4) vs L-NP, ALP 52.5 (+1.5) vs ON.

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