iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 3h

GS: The Surprise in Core PCE This Year Has Been Driven Primarily by a Few Categories Affected by the Oil Shock and AI-Related Demand

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 3h

GS: The Inflation Surprise from the Computer Software and Accessories Component, the Oil Shock, and Tariffs Should Ease Over the Next Year, Leaving Core PCE Near Target

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

So, okay. Let's say it's the same. What were the earliest signs of the dot-com bust? The revenue guide downs at Dell and Cisco in early 2000. ... So keep your eye on the guidance.

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The most interesting cut of the labor market data from yesterday.

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Marisa Ingemi @mingemi.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Star Wars is here

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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Bottom line: +29k jobs (+50k 3mma) and 4.2% unemployment are hardly catastrophic. Rebound in prime-age e-pop is encouraging. Fundamental issue in this labor market isn't that there aren't enough jobs. It's what they pay: Wage growth is continuing to slow. #NumbersDay

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 02/10/2026

In sum, 1. Labor market remarkably strong and stable to now. Low-hire, low-fire pattern continues. If you have job, u can keep it but hard to get outside offer or raise. 2. But the small share of people searching have it tough 3. Little evidence of weakening in this report, mainly in wage decel

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 02/10/2026

+29K jobs gained last month (mid-Aug to mid-Sept). -60K jobs in revisions of prior 2 months. The big picture

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

7/ The increase in unemployment came primarily from new entrants and re-entrants. The "worst" category, unemployment due to permanent layoff, ticked down a tiny bit (though not as much as I would have expected given claims)

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

"From the preceding month, the PCE price index for August increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent." Inflation at expectations (before most recent increase in oil and gas prices)

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Solid 2.2% Q2 GDP growth rate

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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Lots of commentary on how the market is holding up as bond yields soar, but that applies to a single sector: Tech

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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Core MoM 0.2% 🥹

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Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The NIPA revisions show mildly more household savings on modestly firmer income momentum, but the trends don't lie... Real income growth and savings continue to fall, thereby capping consumer spending capacity.

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Drew Rappolt @lidlwig.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Years ago SF Academy of Sciences had a skulls exhibit where the one thing I learned was predators eyes looked forward (like humans and birds) while prey (like goats) eyes are on the side giving them a more panoramic view Anyways….this a bird yo!!!

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 29/09/2026

Dems need to win PA by around 9 points to flip its Senate (~D+11 nationally). In that situation, they likely also take the state legislatures of WI, MI, AZ and NV Gov. Dems would have the votes to push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact over the line and eliminate the Electoral College.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

BofA: We expect the impulse from the One Big Beautiful bill to turn slightly negative in FY 2027 and FY 2028

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Drew Rappolt @lidlwig.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Old school PAC 10 no defense shoot out happening

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Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Low rates, liquidity & leverage is the holy trinity of new finance. The regime change organized around sustained supply shocks, inflation & higher rates is challenging that triad. Our model that subjected the economy to a rate shock via the 10-year yields interesting findings & interpretations.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Well, if you're a bond guy, and you're now confident that Fed Funds are gonna be 4% (or higher), then why take duration risk? If you get 4.5% for 1yr, why go out to 5 or 10yrs when you get less than 1% extra for all that risk? ... So the long end is being sold off. It honestly makes sense.

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Drew Rappolt @lidlwig.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The trade requests today from Advisors vs the trades requests yesterday from same Advisors is best summed up via @hmeisler.bsky.social pinned post

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Bryan Murphy @bryanmurphy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It took him all of Spring Training and 158 games, but he finally landed a line.

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

the prior 3 times mkt had real weakness it began by RSP outperforming mega tech. yes, *expanding* breadth *preceded* the drawdowns of summer 2024 (yen), spring 2025 (tariffs), spring 2026 (war) if you are still worried about poor mkt breadth you aren’t in touch with recent market behavior

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Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · 22/09/2026

Tyrannosaurus xkcd.com/3300/

Comic. [Person with long hair pointing to diagram with Tyrannosaurus Rex standing next to a person.] PERSON: We now believe the primary prey of Tyrannosaurus Rex was these humans who kept standing next to it for scale.

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 21/09/2026

Interesting

Wall Street Is Growing Skeptical of the Data Center Boom
By Maureen Farrell
(New York Times) -- Several companies tied to the data center industry have delayed their initial public offerings amid the increasing public backlash to these energy guzzling facilities.
The backlash against data centers that is shaping elections and kitchen table debates across the country is now spilling onto Wall Street.
Companies that house the data centers or supply them with energy and land for construction were expected to dominate the initial public offering market over the coming months, feeding investors’ seemingly insatiable appetite for everything related to artificial intelligence.
But some investors are voicing increasing skepticism about the growth expectations for data centers and the risks associated with their build-out, forcing industry executives and their advisers to recalibrate their plans to raise tens of billions of dollars in public markets.
SB Energy, a subsidiary of the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank that has proposed to build the largest data center project in the world in Ohio, had originally planned its I.P.O. for this month.

But the offering has been delayed, as investors question the company’s sought-after valuation of $50 billion or more, according to interviews with four people familiar with the deal’s marketing efforts. So far, bankers have struggled to find enough buyers of SB Energy stock within price ranges the company and its bankers had sought.
SB Energy’s struggles to win over investors comes as Holtec, a company serving the nuclear energy industry that is looking to supply power for A.I., said last week that it was pausing its I.P.O. plans indefinitely, citing several factors that has “impaired investor confidence in the market for new public offerings.”
Holtec pointed to the “uncertainty of data center development” as the primary reason for the postponement, according to a company release.
Holtec Nuclear owns and operates one main nuclear power site and builds small nuclear reactors that can be used to power data centers. The company, which had planned to start trading on Nasdaq last week, was seeking to raise as much as $900 million at a valuation of up to $10 billion.
Another company that’s slowed the timing of its offering, according to three people briefed on the matter, is the power company Aggreko, which counts A.I. data centers among its key customers. Aggreko also provides power to live events and mining projects, but it had highlighted data center clients as the basis for a large jump in revenue over the past year.

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Drew Rappolt @lidlwig.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Gotta protect that Saudi money flow This will totally make oil prices drop

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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I'd guess he may be talking about this? Either way, not really a great trend. Builders in an awful position, existing homeowners aren't going to sell into a supply dump in some metros, affordabilty still a big challenge, etc. Not the healthy market he's making it out to be bsky.app/profile/yont...

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

FOMC key takeaways...

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

What's happened with inflation over the past 9 months is probably more significant for the Fed's hawkish turn, but the job market has also outperformed their expectations - less need for insurance FWIW, their Q3'23 forecast for Q4'26 unemployment will turn out to be very close

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Michael Santoli @michaelsantoli.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

But the logic behind an upward adjustment in rates is there. This 25bp bump brings short rates up to a level that's still 50bp below where they were just over a year ago, before the Fed cut three times. Back then, core PCE inflation was <3% for several months. It's now been running >3% for months.

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Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

“Hawkish on rates vs baseline but even more bullish eco vs baseline” is the TL;DR for the day so far

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 16/09/2026

SEP, graphically. A year ago the Fed thought NGDP (proxied by headline PCE + real GDP) would be +4.2% this year. This SEP has it at 5.9%. Unemployment expected to remain below ~NAIRU (longer-run forecast of 4.2%) for the entire horizon. Core PCE forecasted above target until 2029 More hikes to come

SEP Forecasts for 2026-2029 for Fed Funds, core PCE, GDP, and UER, last six SEPs (18 months)

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Drew Rappolt @lidlwig.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

1 more hike with a hold thru 2027, CPI and PCE revised up, unemployment revised down

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

SEP update

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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The Federal Reserve voted to raise interest rates by a quarter point as policymakers try to tamp down inflation after more than five years of above-target price increases. Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/09... #EconSky

nytimes.com

Live Updates: Fed Faces a Credibility Test on Interest Rates

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Ian Smith @iankmsmith.ft.com · 15/09/2026

On tomorrow's international FT front page

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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Returns from April 1-June 2: SPY: 15.73% NDX: 27.65% Returns from June 2-today: SPX: -0.32% NDX: -5.62%

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Barchart @barchart.com · 15/09/2026

JP Morgan's Trading Gameplan for tomorrow's rate decision 🚨 🚨

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SF Giants Bot @giantbot.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

🤖 Susan Slusser Scott Bandura reckons tonight’s crowd will be the biggest he’s played in since leading off the Little League World Series - he was on the same team as Mo’ne Davis, who he’s still friends with. She’s going to try to see the Giants play in St. Louis this week.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

At 6.6%, current YoY US Nominal GDP is at the highest YoY rate since 2005, outside of the COVID bounce-back period 1.5ppt higher on the 10yr? DB Since the early 1960s, 10 yr UST yields have typically tracked Nominal GDP

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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Goldman on UMich: "The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment declined by more than expected in the September preliminary report. The report’s 1-year and 5-10-year inflation expectations measures both increased to 4.6% and 3.4%, respectively." Inflation expectations increasing ...

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 11/09/2026

IMO the bond market decided yesterday after PPI that the FOMC would either hike or the curve would steepen like hell if they didn't. The CPI data today took that latter option off the table (in terms of what's priced) so if we don't get a hike Wednesday it's going to be an absolute mess.

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