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Jim Barrineau

@jwb12.bsky.social
771 followers 286 following 1.6K posts

Chief Investment Officer, Fiduciary Capital Management. Pro bono CIO for a foundation. www.fiduciarycm.com. 25 years on Wall Street. Ex-USN, ex-CIA.

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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
At this point, what's left to be said about the scale of the grift? www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
nytimes.com
U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine Now Involve an Oil Deal Tied to Trump Allies (Gift Article)
President Vladimir V. Putin brought up a sale of Russian energy assets with President Trump’s envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, pushing a deal that raises new questions about conflicts of inter...
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Does the Fed have a 2% inflation target or a PR campaign to convince you they have a 2% target? More a "3% is ok with rising asset prices" target dlvr.it/TVlHkR
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Small caps are struggling in a higher rate environment. We wrote about them here, in what not to buy in a rate hiking cycle: dlvr.it/TVkd5h
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
As the dollar soars, the performance gap between US and ex-US equities is increasing. We wrote about what to avoid investing in as rates rise here: dlvr.it/TVkRnt
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Odds for a rate hike in October tumbled from 70% a week ago to less than 40% today after inflation data came in as expected. You could argue--as the Fed will if it passes on a hike--that higher long end yields will slow the economy on their own. We think that unlikely given the scale of AI spending
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Lots of commentary on how the market is holding up as bond yields soar, but that applies to a single sector: Tech
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
High yield spreads breach 300 basis points over treasuries after a long period near historical lows. A sign that liquidity conditions are tightening. If you must own corporate debt, the only debt to own is the highest grade, short duration debt.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Remember the story last week that risk assets were holding up well despite the soaring bond yields? Feels like that narrative is losing its grip today
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
If the spike in treasury yields isn't enough, high yield spreads to treasuries might be coming off a long period near historical lows. While stocks have weathered the yield spike well, a tightening of credit conditions to accompany it is a potential sign that risk appetite might be retreating.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
What Not to Buy in a Rate Hiking Cycle
dlvr.it
FCM Weekly Market Notes
FCM Weekly Market Notes What Not to Buy in a Rate Hiking Cycle While every rate hiking cycle is different, it’s similar in what your broad investing playbook should be. Number one on the list of market areas to avoid are small cap stocks. This hiking cycle started to be priced in right after a period of outsized gains for small caps—year-to-date up to August, small caps had nearly doubled the S&P at 18.11% versus 9.41%, providing another reason to consider lightening up. Since then, the S&P is up over 3% while small caps are down over 3%. When rates are rising and financial conditions are tightening, small caps can face a double headwind—higher financing costs and tighter access to capital. When the cycle eventually shifts toward lower rates and easier financial conditions, those same forces can become a tailwind. That point is clearly some time away. Area number two is international stocks. In static portfolio allocations for retail investors, international stocks are almost always included as a portfolio diversifier. But that should change as cycles change. A strengthening US dollar curbed international returns, and they under- performed S&P, although by only a percent. In this cycle, that disparity may widen as the dollar has already started to soar. The negative effect of a hiking cycle also extends to income segments that are not pure fixed income. Until we see where yields find an equilibrium, these areas are best to be avoided as well, although the ability to have exposure to real assets should eventually benefit investors who wait for price action to confirm more attractive entry. This chart shows the largest REIT ETF: A similar analysis holds for the MLP space, traditionally used for income—an eventually attractive option, once yields settle. And that brings us to bonds. A casual reader of the financial press is quite aware that yields have risen sharply, especially in long duration bonds. There is no need to pick a yield that might seem attractive to you at this point in the cycle, as pundits who have bond funds to sell might urge you to. Instead, very short duration and floating rate strategies can keep you safely participating in the rise in yields—why gamble and pretend that you can forecast the future in yields? According to current market pricing, this hiking cycle has much more room to run—which increases the need for investors to weed out weak links in their portfolio and not statically sit on the sidelines. By next year’s April Fed meeting, the market has over a 50% chance rates will be 75 basis points—or more!—higher than today. We will discuss how risk assets might perform in that scenario next week. Given the recent stock performance that is harder to predict. But the current hiking cycle playbook is not. Explore FCM's Investment Strategies →Here Learn more about our SMA strategies, investment approach, risks and fees. James Barrineau, Chief Investment Officer Fiduciary Capital Management LLC 1621 Central Ave Cheyenne, WY 82001 Website: www.FiduciaryCM.com Direct: (914) 588-1978 https://calendly.com/jbarrineau-fiduciarycm/30min Fiduciary CM Firm Brochures https://fiduciarycm.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/James-Barrineau-ADV2b- 3212026.pdf Fiduciary CM Form CRS (ADV3) Privacy Policy Email Disclaimer Advisory and Consulting Services offered through FIDUCIARY CM® (Fiduciary Capital Management LLC). FIDUCIARY CM® is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only for a broad audience. The information does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. FIDUCIARY CM® has reasonable belief that this marketing does not include any false or material misleading statements or omissions of facts regarding services, investment, or client experience. Please refer to our Firm Brochure (ADV2) for material risks disclosures. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. FIDUCIARY CM® may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas, and stock picks which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Consultation with a licensed financial professional is strongly suggested. Please remember that securities cannot be purchased, sold, or traded via e-mail or voice message system. For more information, please visit www.Fiduciary CM.com.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Small caps should be on your list of "things not to buy in a rate hiking cycle."
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index: Financial conditions have basically gone nowhere for the past two months. When they tightened from end February to beginning April, the S&P returned negative 4.83%. When they loosened from April to early July, S&P returned 13.81%.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
If you are looking for an equity market completely uncorrelated with international or US stock indices, it''s China, especially the tech sector--down nearly 25% YTD. We have waited patiently for signs of life, and seeing some stirring recently...
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Maybe, if we wanted all our AI dreams to come true, we shouldn't be paying companies to stop generating wind power and actively reducing solar power growth.... giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
US data centres ‘are short six NYCs of electricity’
With great power comes great implausibility
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Although international stocks are roughly flat the S&P for the year, since the end of the first quarter they have under-performed the S&P by a whopping 800 basis points or so.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The Fed did what was necessary this week, and that might be enough to stabilize bond yields for now. But liquidity conditions will tighten and inflation drivers remain intact.
dlvr.it
FCM Weekly Market Notes
FCM Weekly Market Notes The Fed Buys Bonds Some Time The Fed did what was necessary given market pricing before this week’s meeting. That stopped a lot of the bleeding in the bond market, but investors shouldn’t expect much, if any, of a price rally from here. The market reaction was more sigh of relief than price rally. The chart below is the week’s prices for the ETF that tracks long bonds, illustrating that conclusion. With the yield of the long bond now just a touch over 5.3%, some long end stability is a necessary precursor to calm in risk assets as well. And, in the same timeframe as above, stocks generally took the hike well after an immediate sell-off., closing at their highs for the week. So will stocks to push forward with the Fed apparently on the inflation case? We think the odds are small, at least perhaps till the positive year-end seasonality (hopefully) kicks in. There are two reasons for that. First, while most commentary myopically focuses on what has just happened and extrapolates from there, a bigger picture suggests there should be some tempered enthusiasm going forward. Over the past three years, the Nasdaq has nearly doubled while the S&P is up over 74%. But since June, most stocks have gone nowhere. Second, any argument for strong performance from here has to consider the fact that the liquidity environment will almost certainly be less supportive, as we pointed out here. The market is now pricing in almost even odds that we will end the year with an additional 50 basis points of hikes. And asset prices have reacted rationally to the prospect for higher rates. Small cap stocks, highly sensitive to interest rates, are rapidly shedding the out-performance that they put in most of this year. Similarly, international stocks are now under-performing the S&P after a very strong start to the year as the dollar has strengthened in anticipation of a hiking cycle. We would lighten up or avoid exposure in both market segments. All of this argues that we are into, or entering, a market regime where capital appreciation is less likely. We like to think of the market as providing “available alpha”. Coming out of the rate hiking cycle of 2022, liquidity conditions eased rapidly and investors were treated to a target-rich environment where alpha and high returns were highly available. If that era is over, squeezing out positive gains is a better framework than hoping that some driver of strong gains will emerge even as conditions tighten. Choices like covered call strategies as opposed to outright ownership of underlying indices are likely to out-perform even in a market that can eke out some positive performance if not just tread water. Lastly, we have seen a lot of market pundits praise Warsh, label him a “hawk” and conclude that his promise to return to the 2% inflation target might just be credible. We continue to be doubtful. First, pipeline inflation pressures with diesel prices at an all-time high, won’t abate soon. Second, a true effort to return to 2% inflation will of necessity involve a slower growth trade-off and damage to risk asset prices. The willingness of the Fed and markets to absorb that in the current political era should be suspect. James Barrineau, Chief Investment Officer Fiduciary Capital Management LLC 1621 Central Ave Cheyenne, WY 82001 Website: www.FiduciaryCM.com Direct: (914) 588-1978 https://calendly.com/jbarrineau-fiduciarycm/30min Fiduciary CM Firm Brochures https://fiduciarycm.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/James-Barrineau-ADV2b- 3212026.pdf Fiduciary CM Form CRS (ADV3) Privacy Policy Email Disclaimer Advisory and Consulting Services offered through FIDUCIARY CM® (Fiduciary Capital Management LLC). FIDUCIARY CM® is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only for a broad audience. The information does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. FIDUCIARY CM® has reasonable belief that this marketing does not include any false or material misleading statements or omissions of facts regarding services, investment, or client experience. Please refer to our Firm Brochure (ADV2) for material risks disclosures. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. FIDUCIARY CM® may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas, and stock picks which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Consultation with a licensed financial professional is strongly suggested. Please remember that securities cannot be purchased, sold, or traded via e-mail or voice message system. For more information, please visit www.Fiduciary CM.com.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This chart from the FT goes a long way in explaining the inflationary pressures in the pipeline even if oil lingers around $100--about 70-80% of US transportation is affected by higher diesel prices. The passthrough will be felt for some time.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The prospect of a full-on rate hiking cycle has spiked the dollar. That makes international equities much less appealing until the smoke clears. YTD, the S&P has out-performed international by about 180 basis points.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The anticipation of a rate hike this month dinged previously out-performing small caps and equal-weighted S&P, as the tech sector--less sensitive to rates--did better.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Gold's rally got short-circuited as the market more firmly priced in rate hikes. With more hikes in the pipeline being priced, might be tough for that rally to resume as the cost of foregone interest for holding gold rises.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The market has priced in slightly better than even odds that the Fed hikes again at the next meeting after Warsh's brief presser. He succeeded at getting the hawkish message across, and liquidity conditions will tighten as a result.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
From Paul Krugman. Could also be titled: "Yes, there is plenty more inflation in the pipeline".
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Good analysis of how a Wall Street person formerly believed to be remotely credible can incinerate their reputation: “Bessent makes Steve Mnuchin look like Alexander Hamilton.” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Scott Bessent’s wobbly house
Politics seems to be messing with the US Treasury secretary’s head
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Returns from April 1-June 2: SPY: 15.73% NDX: 27.65% Returns from June 2-today: SPX: -0.32% NDX: -5.62%
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Market pricing says the Fed will almost certainly hike this week. The Fed's body language about what comes next could threaten what has been a very risk friendly liquidity environment.
dlvr.it
FCM Weekly Market Notes
FCM Weekly Market Notes The Choiceless Fed The market recognizes that the Fed has virtually no choice other than a rate hike this week. To preserve liquidity conditions as abundant, Fed chair Warsh is going to have to position this as “one or two and done” or investors are likely to rethink their risk appetite. Despite Warsh’s preference for obfuscating how the Fed is leaning, market pricing has collapsed towards an almost certain hike this week. Every Fed chair recognizes that if the market is this strongly oriented towards a rate movement, not following through would invite market chaos. With the outcome of the meeting (presumably) foretold, Warsh’s body language on additional hikes will be the focus. Why is this important? The hike is taking place after an extended bull market that kicked off as the market realized the last hiking cycle was nearing completion. However much Warsh disdains forward guidance, markets remain future discounting machines. The final hike of the cycle that started in 2022 as inflation spiked was in July of 2023. Equities were firmly off their lows before the last hike, and after that hike the S&P has returned a tidy 68% and the Nasdaq 89%. Warsh will be mindful of not killing the golden goose of abundant liquidity that enabled that rally. Liquidity conditions even earlier anticipated the end of the hiking cycle and began to ease (lower is looser). We conclude that as long as the market believes this has the potential to be a “one and done” or at worst a “two and done” generous liquidity conditions need not contract significantly. If they do begin to retreat from their current extremely accommodative levels, we would become extremely cautious with risk assets. The problem for Warsh is that forward inflation conditions are not making a positive market narrative on rates easy. With the deterioration of conditions in the Middle East, oil prices have spiked and diesel prices—which impact most of the goods transportation sector—are at all-time highs. Additionally, copper prices are up 41% YOY, soybeans 22%, wheat 35%, and aluminum 20%. Core producer prices are not signaling the probability of an easing of consumer prices anytime soon. While the S&P is up 1.37% since the start of June, the Nasdaq is down nearly 4%. So, we enter this Fed meeting with clearly waning market momentum, which further makes the Fed’s perceived future stance beyond one hike for liquidity conditions and risk appetite extremely important. For investment implications, as always, we are alert more to price movements than our own ability to read the future, and they are encouraging a more circumspect risk positioning. We have been clear for months that the outlook for bond investors is far more fraught. The underlying inflation outlook gives little reason to hope for relief even if we get a short-term rally from an oversold market. Add in the fiscal worries, structural de-globalization, and massive new issuance from tech giants, and investors clearly need to consider other income avenues. James Barrineau, Chief Investment Officer Fiduciary Capital Management LLC 1621 Central Ave Cheyenne, WY 82001 Website: www.FiduciaryCM.com Direct: (914) 588-1978 https://calendly.com/jbarrineau-fiduciarycm/30min Fiduciary CM Firm Brochures https://fiduciarycm.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/James-Barrineau-ADV2b-3- 212026.pdf Fiduciary CM Form CRS (ADV3) Privacy Policy Email Disclaimer Advisory and Consulting Services offered through FIDUCIARY CM® (Fiduciary Capital Management LLC). FIDUCIARY CM® is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only for a broad audience. The information does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. FIDUCIARY CM® has reasonable belief that this marketing does not include any false or material misleading statements or omissions of facts regarding services, investment, or client experience. Please refer to our Firm Brochure (ADV2) for material risks disclosures. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. FIDUCIARY CM® may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas, and stock picks which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Consultation with a licensed financial professional is strongly suggested. Please remember that securities cannot be purchased, sold, or traded via e-mail or voice message system. For more information, please visit www.Fiduciary CM.com.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Under previous Fed chairs, when the market was guided to a high probability outcome for an upcoming meeting, the Fed ALWAYS moved in that direction. Despite Warsh's apparent dislike for forward guidance, this meeting should follow that pattern.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Simple investing rules are the best investing rules. If the market prices in a hiking cycle, look for non-bond income sources. That allows you to focus only on those parts of the bond market that actually work in a hiking cycle, and if you have to hug the index, do it in a low duration way.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Not a. good look for the upcoming CPI numbers, and hard to see how a rational Fed does not raise rates--market pricing now 74% for a hike.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Small cap stocks have out-performed both the S&P and NasdaQ YTD but are now rolling over
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/09/09/b... The technical Wall Street term for this is “pissing in the wind”
nytimes.com
Treasury Plans $6 Billion in Debt Repurchases to Battle Rising Yields
Bond yields rose after the announcement, suggesting investors were underwhelmed by the size of the purchases.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
A good gauge of overall market risk appetite--not just tech--has been the performance of the equal-weighted S&P, which YTD has outperformed SPY by 150 basis points. It has started showing signs of flagging.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Our resilient-looking, growing economy is increasingly reliant on unsustainable stimulus.
dlvr.it
FCM Weekly Market Notes
FCM Weekly Market Notes This Economy is Brimming with Stimulus The mighty, resilient, can’t-stop-won’t-stop US economy is being powered by two major stimulative forces apart from monetary policy. Neither is sustainable. When Jerome Powell was in his last year or so as Fed chair, he would inevitably announce at press conferences that “monetary policy was slightly restrictive”. According to the Fed’s own measure, and market pricing, this was objectively not true. At least Kevin Warsh, along with at least one other Fed official, has acknowledged that policy is “not restrictive”. Hardly a ringing endorsement for objective reality, but a good start. We have written often that liquidity conditions are the most stimulative they have been in over five years (see here), the Fed balance sheet is expanding over the past year, and high yield debt spreads are near all-time lows. That seems to us to represent the allowance of quite stimulative conditions, especially by a central bank that is currently 0 for the last 65 months in hitting its stated target. But there is more. Obviously, AI-related spending is boosting growth massively. The chart below shows the increasing percentage of growth that the AI boom is responsible for. This year should represent a further increase. But the level of payoff required to justify that spending remains a murky probability, and the cost of that funding is rising as debt markets choke on supply—and the data center backlash from local communities seems like it is just getting started. You don’t need to be a doomster about the AI bubble eventually bursting (although we are in the 100% probability camp) to know that the increasing dependence on AI spending for growth is a unique and salient risk to the economy whose probability of trouble ahead only goes in one direction. The other major non-monetary stimulus is the fiscal deficit, chugging along at what used to be known as emergency levels. Here, the picture is a little nuanced. It is not stimulative every quarter, according to the Brookings Institute, but since 2024 it has overall been a significant growth contributor. When we say that fiscal stimulus is not sustainable, do we mean that eventually our politicians will soberly assess the situation, trim spending and hike taxes? Haha—of course not! But the longer the deficit is maintained, the less of it goes to productive spending and the more of it represents simply a transfer of wealth to treasury holders without resulting in new purchases of goods or services. The chart below from the CBO shows projections for the deficit and interest payments. As interest payments rise, the deficit becomes less and less stimulative to growth. And for bond holders, this dynamic becomes increasingly toxic as well. While there are many potential drivers to the recent rise in bond yields, this particular one, like AI risk to growth, also only goes in one direction: Large primary deficits → more debt → higher interest expense → larger total deficits → more debt. Does all of this mean our current investment stance for clients consists of primarily hiding under our desk? Not at all. As we are fond of pointing out, every investment thesis is fully useful only when it becomes validated by price action. We have plenty of income ideas for investors who are, like us, bond shy—see here—and for equity exposure our liquidity conditions indicators are still flashing a robust risk environment. But eventually appetite for further risk, based on a belief in a bullet-proof economic growth outlook, is certain to disappear. James Barrineau, Chief Investment Officer Fiduciary Capital Management LLC 1621 Central Ave Cheyenne, WY 82001 Website: www.FiduciaryCM.com Direct: (914) 588-1978 https://calendly.com/jbarrineau-fiduciarycm/30min Fiduciary CM Firm Brochures https://fiduciarycm.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/James-Barrineau-ADV2b-3- 212026.pdf Fiduciary CM Form CRS (ADV3) Privacy Policy Email Disclaimer Advisory and Consulting Services offered through FIDUCIARY CM® (Fiduciary Capital Management LLC). FIDUCIARY CM® is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only for a broad audience. The information does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. FIDUCIARY CM® has reasonable belief that this marketing does not include any false or material misleading statements or omissions of facts regarding services, investment, or client experience. Please refer to our Firm Brochure (ADV2) for material risks disclosures. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. FIDUCIARY CM® may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas, and stock picks which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Consultation with a licensed financial professional is strongly suggested. Please remember that securities cannot be purchased, sold, or traded via e-mail or voice message system. For more information, please visit www.Fiduciary CM.com.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Here is how the market is pricing the probability for a Fed rate hike at the September meeting: A month ago: 67% A week ago: 35% A day ago: 63% Today: Coin toss. Welcome to the Warsh Fed, where nobody's view on what the Fed is thinking about inflation fighting lasts more than a few days.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
From the WSJ. Our economic growth is fueled by the AI bubble and fiscal spending at a rate that used to be reserved for wartime emergencies.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Sharply higher odds for a rate hike turned the dollar around from what was a weakening trend-in addition to tanking gold after a short rally. Let's see if the Fed actually follows through; if they do not expect lots of volatility in the opposite direction.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Putin clearly thinks he has carte blanche to help Iran and weaken the US in multiple theaters given the strategic incoherence and incompetence of the Trump era. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Russia secretly helping Iran develop supersonic cruise missiles
Leaks reveal programme behind one of the most significant known transfers of military technology from Moscow to Tehran
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The market-priced probability of Fed hike has shifted dramatically, markets have to adjust. We have gone from a 1/3 chance of a hike to 2/3 in a week. That represents pre-emptive tightening!
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
If the Fed is serious about getting to 2% inflation, they will have to tap the brakes on a very robust liquidity environment for risk.
dlvr.it
FCM Weekly Market Notes
FCM Weekly Market Notes Is Liquidity as Good as It Gets? It’s pretty, pretty close to as good as it is going to get in this cycle. When things are stretched in one direction—whether its equity valuations, asset price movements, or measures of financial liquidity—a simple way to think about it is as a dynamic where things must increasingly go right for that trend to continue. And the number of things that might in isolation currently be low probability events but that would unravel that trend, begin to increase. Right now, loose financial conditions, which historically have a high correlation with equity prices rising, seem to be at a place where it is as good as it is going to get. That is not to say they cannot continue to be loose for an extended period, but conditions that are even more positive for risk assets are a low probability event. Take the Chicago Fed’s financial conditions index, our favorite indicator. Right now, the index is at its loosest level in over four-and-a-half years, and is roughly around ten year loosest levels except for the brief period of incredibly swift easing post-Covid (lower is looser). Similarly, high yield bond spreads to treasuries are very close to five-year lows, suggesting risk caution in credit markets is very low. While many things can go wrong for a trend at stretched valuations, the most proximate cause of this trend reversal is likely to be Fed policy. In his Jackson Hole speech this week, Fed chair Warsh gave what the market took to be a hawkish outlook, with the probability of a rate hike in the September meeting rising from less than even to nearly two-thirds. The market effect extended to gold, which interrupted what was seemingly the start of a rapid bounce with a more than 3% fall, and the dollar, which rose sharply after his remarks. Both assets had been trending differently as the market took soft economic growth numbers to indicate that near-term rate hikes were off the table. As much as Warsh has indicated that he doesn’t like the Fed providing forward guidance, this sure looked like some clear forward guidance to the markets. While we will be alert to signs liquidity conditions are shifting, what should you look at in terms of asset prices for a reversal of what has been a fourth consecutive year of robust returns? One place NOT to look in our view is at the tech sector or the major indices. Since the beginning of June, the Nasdaq has returned -3.88% while the S&P is up over 1%. Big tech clearly has specific issues related to the viability of the AI-bubble that don’t accurately reflect broad equity risk appetite. Instead, we would look to the price performance of the equally weighted S&P (RSP), and small caps. While the major indices struggle with their huge tech component, RSP has soared over 5% in the same time frame. Small caps have gained almost 20% for the year. They are an asset class likely to be very sensitive to perceived shifts in liquidity and rates given the higher dependence on borrowing. While small caps barely out-performed the S&P since the beginning of June, we might be seeing the start of some wobbling there: Small caps have bounced convincingly whenever they have met or slightly fell below their 30-day moving average in previous episodes since April, so that is something to watch closely. James Barrineau, Chief Investment Officer Fiduciary Capital Management LLC 1621 Central Ave Cheyenne, WY 82001 Website: www.FiduciaryCM.com Direct: (914) 588-1978 https://calendly.com/jbarrineau-fiduciarycm/30min Fiduciary CM Firm Brochures https://fiduciarycm.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/James-Barrineau-ADV2b-3- 212026.pdf Fiduciary CM Form CRS (ADV3) Privacy Policy Email Disclaimer Advisory and Consulting Services offered through FIDUCIARY CM® (Fiduciary Capital Management LLC). FIDUCIARY CM® is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only for a broad audience. The information does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. FIDUCIARY CM® has reasonable belief that this marketing does not include any false or material misleading statements or omissions of facts regarding services, investment, or client experience. Please refer to our Firm Brochure (ADV2) for material risks disclosures. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. FIDUCIARY CM® may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas, and stock picks which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Consultation with a licensed financial professional is strongly suggested. Please remember that securities cannot be purchased, sold, or traded via e-mail or voice message system. For more information, please visit www.Fiduciary CM.com.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
The more details of this come out, the worse it is--the corruption likelihood is off the charts, ad giving the US military a cut is standard operating procedure in third world countries with disastrous implications long term. www.wsj.com/business/ene...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Inside Trump’s Plan to Give the Pentagon a Stake in Venezuela’s Oil Riches
The deal capped months of secretive negotiations to give the U.S. rights to the some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Growth is becoming ever more dependent on AI spending. When you combine that with running a consistently huge fiscal deficit, it is apparent that solid, organic growth drivers in the US have gone missing--exactly what you would expect from a high tariff environment and diminishing population growth
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Warsh's strategy is clearly to bludgeon inflation to death with words instead of rate increases. www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
wsj.com
Watch Live: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to give his first Jackson Hole speech at 10 a.m. ET. Follow along for live updates on markets and the top finance, economics and business stories. Plus the ...
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
The Trump Brain Drain accelerates.... giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Canada poaches 48 top US-based academics
Trump administration’s assault on universities boosts Ottawa’s efforts to attract top research talent
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Total return in a bond aggregate passive fund has been barely positive in nominal terms this year. An inflation rate of 3% means you have lost money on a real basis. With persistently high inflation, and a Fed leaning towards rate hikes you need to be more innovative about how you generate income.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
As the tech/growth rally from late July fades, it looks increasingly like early June marks a near-term peak for their out-performance. Meanwhile, with ample liquidity in the markets, the equal weight S&P fund RSP looks like the little engine that could with steady gains.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Of course, the test case for American bullying as foreign policy will be China. Will China suddenly stop buying Iranian oil due to the awesome prose of Secretary Bessent? And if not, will America go into a full on trade war with China over Iran? giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Scott Bessent: an economic D-Day is coming for Iran
Countries that calculate appeasement of the regime to be a safer choice should reconsider
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Why Treasury Secretary Bessent's activist efforts are doomed to failure:
dlvr.it
FCM Weekly Market Notes
FCM Weekly Market Notes There Are Just Too Many Bonds Treasury Secretary Bessent tried to push against the rising long bond yield story and instead woke the market up to the higher probability of USD currency risk. This is not a battle he wins. Every investor learns first that diversification is the bedrock of sound investing. A responsible application of that principle now needs to include currency diversification away from the US dollar. We don’t like bonds as investments in this era. See here, here, here…and well, you get the idea. There was plenty of justification for this view: stubborn inflation, a new and uncommunicative Fed chief, and playing in the background the possibility that the deficit becomes a market driving issue. We are essentially there. Add about a trillion dollars in new AI-spending related debt to a couple trillion of US treasury issuance, and yields will have to accommodate the marginal buyer. There’s not much the treasury can do about that. And this week’s events told the market that the fiscal deficit in the US is now a real market issue, and not a theoretical talking point somewhere in the future. The speed of the market’s reaction surprised even a policy skeptic like us. Clearly, the market’s verdict is that we are far enough into the endless deficit growth story that feckless attempts to manipulate market pricing only serve as evidence that the time to shed USD exposure is here now: There is a rule of thumb that many economists smarter than us have used to say that the deficit growth, while troubling, won’t become a red alert. That rule is that as long as the level of GDP growth remained above the level of interest rates, we would be fine. That rule has been blown up and will be further incinerated in the near future. The Covid era served to suggest that maybe interest rates could stay low indefinitely—the inflation spike and rate hikes in 2022 curbed that enthusiasm. Nevertheless, a reasonable view would have been that if rates could level off around 3%, things might be fine. But with inflation persistently above target, higher energy costs, and higher costs associated with de-globalization, we won’t be structurally lowering interest rates for probably many years. So, if yields stay above 4% the chances that growth can surpass yields are close to zero—sorry, AI evangelists. What is more troubling is what is baked in the cake: no matter what the Fed does in the next few years, the costs of servicing the debt will rise significantly. All of the low-cost debt issuance during Covid is beginning the process of running off. More financing pressure is not a theory, it’s a guarantee. This picture shows why: The treasury has cleverly already concentrated issuance towards the short end of the curve with about 21% of the debt there and rising. That alone tells you policy is responding in unusual ways to market pressure. That makes more of the debt more sensitive to short term rates. So a Fed hiking cycle to tame inflation will more directly feed into meaningfully higher interest costs. If Fed policy must become debt load sensitive, all bets are off. The market understands there is, absent a serious effort to address debt levels (anyone believe that can happen?), an endgame for highly indebted countries that includes yields kept below inflation to reduce the real level of debt, and sharply weaker currency levels. Want a preview? See the Japanese yen. All of this calls for more portfolio diversification away from the US dollar. We would go so far as to say ignoring this issue at this point is investment malpractice. The chart above shows two ways to diversify in gold and Bitcoin. But the other, more liquid and more mainstream choice is international assets. International equities also responded to the week’s events albeit less dramatically. The best way to see that is to look at performance relative to the S&P: Essentially, this week’s events serve as a wakeup call to investors. As funding costs of the US deficit rise and policy seems unable to address it, reactions like this week will be looked on as just the start. James Barrineau, Chief Investment Officer Fiduciary Capital Management LLC 1621 Central Ave Cheyenne, WY 82001 Website: www.FiduciaryCM.com Direct: (914) 588-1978 https://calendly.com/jbarrineau-fiduciarycm/30min Fiduciary CM Firm Brochures https://fiduciarycm.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/James-Barrineau-ADV2b-3- 212026.pdf Fiduciary CM Form CRS (ADV3) Privacy Policy Email Disclaimer Advisory and Consulting Services offered through FIDUCIARY CM® (Fiduciary Capital Management LLC). FIDUCIARY CM® is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only for a broad audience. The information does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. FIDUCIARY CM® has reasonable belief that this marketing does not include any false or material misleading statements or omissions of facts regarding services, investment, or client experience. Please refer to our Firm Brochure (ADV2) for material risks disclosures. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. FIDUCIARY CM® may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas, and stock picks which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Consultation with a licensed financial professional is strongly suggested. Please remember that securities cannot be purchased, sold, or traded via e-mail or voice message system. For more information, please visit www.Fiduciary CM.com.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
70-80% of freight activity in the US is directly or indirectly reliant on diesel. Don't expect inflation to come down anytime soon as this feeds through to the economy.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Bessent's feckless "we will grow out of this" will be how history remembers him. If you wanted to NOT grow your way out of it you would slap on tariffs, ramp up deportations that reduce the labor supply, and make higher oil prices a policy choice. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Trump’s economic challenge: $40tn debt, 6.7% mortgages and $5 diesel
The president’s agenda is under strain as the Iran war pushes up prices and America’s finances worsen
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The steep dollar drop is contributing to better relative performance for international equities versus the S&P, If you don't own international, you need to.
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Jim Barrineau @jwb12.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Why is the treasury buyback game destined to be a nothing-burger? Because the math is inexorable. Financing pressure is essentially locked into rising.
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