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FCM Weekly Market Notes
FCM Weekly Market Notes
This Economy is Brimming with Stimulus
The mighty, resilient, can’t-stop-won’t-stop US economy is being powered by two major stimulative forces apart from monetary policy.
Neither is sustainable.
When Jerome Powell was in his last year or so as Fed chair, he would inevitably announce at press conferences that “monetary policy was slightly restrictive”. According to the Fed’s own measure, and market pricing, this was objectively not true. At least Kevin Warsh, along with at least one other Fed official, has acknowledged that policy is “not restrictive”. Hardly a ringing endorsement for objective reality, but a good start.
We have written often that liquidity conditions are the most stimulative they have been in over five years (see here), the Fed balance sheet is expanding over the past year, and high yield debt spreads are near all-time lows. That seems to us to represent the allowance of quite stimulative conditions, especially by a central bank that is currently 0 for the last 65 months in hitting its stated target.
But there is more. Obviously, AI-related spending is boosting growth massively. The chart below shows the increasing percentage of growth that the AI boom is responsible for. This year should represent a further increase. But the level of payoff required to justify that spending remains a murky probability, and the cost of that funding is rising as debt markets choke on supply—and the data center backlash from local communities seems like it is just getting started.
You don’t need to be a doomster about the AI bubble eventually bursting (although we are in the 100% probability camp) to know that the increasing dependence on AI spending for growth is a unique and salient risk to the economy whose probability of trouble ahead only goes in one direction.
The other major non-monetary stimulus is the fiscal deficit, chugging along at what used to be known as emergency levels. Here, the picture is a little nuanced. It is not stimulative every quarter, according to the Brookings Institute, but since 2024 it has overall been a significant growth contributor.
When we say that fiscal stimulus is not sustainable, do we mean that eventually our politicians will soberly assess the situation, trim spending and hike taxes?
Haha—of course not!
But the longer the deficit is maintained, the less of it goes to productive spending and the more of it represents simply a transfer of wealth to treasury holders without resulting in new purchases of goods or services. The chart below from the CBO shows projections for the deficit and interest
payments. As interest payments rise, the deficit becomes less and less stimulative to growth.
And for bond holders, this dynamic becomes increasingly toxic as well. While there are many potential drivers to the recent rise in bond yields, this particular one, like AI risk to growth, also only goes in one direction:
Large primary deficits → more debt → higher interest expense → larger total deficits → more debt.
Does all of this mean our current investment stance for clients consists of primarily hiding under our desk? Not at all. As we are fond of pointing out, every investment thesis is fully useful only when it becomes validated by price action.
We have plenty of income ideas for investors who are, like us, bond shy—see here—and for equity exposure our liquidity conditions indicators are still flashing a robust risk environment. But eventually appetite for further risk, based on a belief in a bullet-proof economic growth outlook, is certain to disappear.
James Barrineau, Chief Investment Officer Fiduciary Capital Management LLC 1621 Central Ave Cheyenne, WY 82001 Website: www.FiduciaryCM.com Direct:
(914) 588-1978 https://calendly.com/jbarrineau-fiduciarycm/30min Fiduciary CM Firm Brochures
https://fiduciarycm.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/James-Barrineau-ADV2b-3-
212026.pdf Fiduciary CM Form CRS (ADV3)
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