Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 20hThe mornings most consequential note. Thinning global oil reserves, how long it’s going to take to rebuild those reserves and what needs to be done in between the lines. The implications here are clear for all to see. 070
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 20hGood morning. US financial conditions are starting to tighten on back of the global bond rout. It’s the equity market that is keeping financial conditions above neutral with the bond market already there. This is aligned with our call of no October rate hike. share.google/IWJ7ZfRzFPvG...share.googleMarket Minute: Bond rout doing Fed’s work as financial conditions tightenThe RSM US Financial Conditions Index suggests only a moderate level of accommodation remaining in the financial markets. 182
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Good news on the energy front that will temporarily mitigate pricing pressures across the G-7 economies. Hopefully this avoids a lose-lose US export ban on diesel. 030
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 02/10/2026My thoughts on the soft US September Jobs Report. realeconomy.rsmus.com/low-hire-low...realeconomy.rsmus.comLow-hire, low-fire labor market continues in September jobs reportthe slowing in the top-line estimate should reinforce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not increase interest rates at its meeting at the end of the month. 2101
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Looking forward to speaking with @ChristineRomans at 11:15 AM ET on @NBCNews about the September US Jobs Report. 020
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Good morning. A preview of coming attractions for those that refuse to get their fiscal house in order. A period of fiscal consolidation is approaching. #Econ 170
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 01/10/2026We published this back in September 21 well before the global sell off in bonds accelerated. We subjected the US growth, employment & inflation to the shock of the 10-year yield rising from 4.5% to 5%, 5.5% & 6%. #Econ share.google/4MS5q9708sW6...share.googleWhat do higher yields look like? Our model shows their impact.We modeled a serios of shocks to identify the impact on growth, employment and inflation. The results show the challenge of bringing down inflation. 181
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Good morning. Overnight the bond sell off accelerated with yields on long term paper posting fresh multi-decade highs. That sell off has abated somewhat heading into the American open. #Econ share.google/plkc4bzZAidC...share.googleMarket Minute: Remarkable stability in pace of firingsThe low-fire, slow-hire context that has defined the U.S. jobs market over the past two years is not likely to change anytime soon. 193
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 01/10/2026The French budget will be announced today with an expected target of 5% which is well above the 3% EU threshold. Investors are pushing the premium charged to sovereign borrowers higher with France facing the wrath of price sensitive global investors in much the same way as the UK & US. #Econ 240
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 30/09/2026My note on the morning US data deluge that showed economic acceleration & elevated inflation. Both of which demands higher interest rates. #Econ realeconomy.rsmus.com/expansion-ac...realeconomy.rsmus.comExpansion accelerates as inflation remains elevatedHousehold spending strengthened in September, and revised second-quarter gross domestic product shows the economy entered midyear on firmer footing than initially estimated. 0103
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate of Q3’26 GDP revised down to 3.7% from 5% following the large increase in the US trade deficit. #Econ www.atlantafed.org/research-and...atlantafed.orgGDPNowGDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. 211
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Long term yields are rising & it’s not because of the August PCE. It’s because of the inflation in front of us in the September data and an unsustainable fiscal path. Btw look at that revised Q2 data and current spending. Parts of the economy are running hot & demands further rate hikes. 081
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 29/09/2026The cost of capital & doing business is rising. Since Feb 27, 2026 the yield on the 5-yr treasury is increased by 157 basis points from 3.50% to 5.07%. #Econ #Rates realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...realeconomy.rsmus.comMarket Minute: Rising 5-year yields and the increasing cost of doing businessManagers and executives should monitor the yield on 5-year Treasury notes to estimate the cost of short- and long-term corporate borrowing. 150
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Good morning. After a decade of looking inward and casting blame it’s far past time to put forward a confident vision organized around common values, finance, trade & security. #Econ www.wsj.com/opinion/jami...wsj.comOpinion | Jamie Dimon: A Plan for the Western World’s RevivalA U.S. trade pact with Europe could encompass friendly democracies and revive the old alliance. 210
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Good morning. We expect a net change in total employment of 85K following the 162K increase in August. We expect the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings should increase 0.3% m/m & 3.2% year-over-year. #Econ 061
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Another great note on the cost of everything transportation rising. Those cost are feeding through to goods & service prices downstream. Tanker rates are on the crest of a wave economist.com/business/202...economist.comTanker rates are on the crest of a waveThe squeeze in the Gulf has sent the cost of moving crude soaring 094
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Good Morning. It’s not just gasoline & diesel prices. It’s the cost & availability of labor due to tight immigration policy. #Econ #Inflation www.wsj.com/business/inf...wsj.comThe Cost of Transporting Pretty Much Everything Just Won’t Stop Going UpTrucking and cargo-shipping rates are at their highest levels in years—and it isn’t just because of the price of fuel. 2103
Reposted by Joe BrusuelasRuo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 25/09/2026most people coming around to this view debate is whether neoclouds or rate sensitives feel it first for this second round of higher for longer 091
Reposted by Joe BrusuelasTriCap @triforcecap.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Joe nails the conundrum for money runners of all kinds. How long will it last? How do systematics have to change to consistently find new leverage surfaces? 141
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Low rates, liquidity & leverage is the holy trinity of new finance. The regime change organized around sustained supply shocks, inflation & higher rates is challenging that triad. Our model that subjected the economy to a rate shock via the 10-year yields interesting findings & interpretations. 1133
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Good morning. At the Fed financial conditions are playing a greater role in determining policy. realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...realeconomy.rsmus.comMarket Minute: Financial conditions remain accommodativeOne week after the Fed raised the overnight rate by 25 basis points, markets appear to be preparing for the tightening of financial conditions. 230
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 24/09/2026I always look forward to speaking with @JeffCoxCNBCcom about the economy. Given a dynamic & resilient economy even amidst the bond route there is a strong probability of further Fed rate hikes this year. #Econ www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/s...cnbc.comSurging Treasury yields pose a brand new problem for Kevin Warsh and the FedMarkets expect the central bank will take a firmer hand on inflation. It's not that easy. 021
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Looking forward to discussing the day in economics, finance & business on @NBCNews with @ChristineRomans at around 10:15 AM ET this morning. 050
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Good morning. A US diesel export ban would be a global event that would drive up prices in Mexico, the UK, EU & much of South America. #Econ #EconSky #inflation #rates 194
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Things are tough all over. Enjoyed speaking with @FoxNews about a possible ban on diesel exports. It’s classic lose-lose proposition that will only harm those it intends to help. share.google/uK95h7wlQgTp... share.google/d2q02g4m5NSr...share.googleTrump's diesel idea could unleash a problem Americans never saw comingAfter publicly considering a diesel export ban to lower domestic prices, the Trump administration reversed course. Here's why experts were concerned. 090
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Investors now pricing in three rate hikes through mid 2027. While I like overnight index swaps if one looks at fed fund futures its pricing in three hikes through spring. Our shock model on rates does imply some support for this given the heavy lift by the Fed to restore price stability. 191
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 23/09/2026With the 10-year trading above 5% once again it’s time to start thinking about the impact on growth, employment & inflation as rates move higher. Read on to evaluate our shock model as the 10 year moves to 5%, 5.5% & 6%. #Econ #EconSky share.google/UEia1wVu04Bl... Source: The Real Economy Blogshare.googleWhat do higher yields look like? Our model shows their impact.We modeled a serios of shocks to identify the impact on growth, employment and inflation. The results show the challenge of bringing down inflation. 1141
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Good morning. My note on why a ban on diesel exports will ultimately result in higher prices both at home & across the international economy. share.google/sdMYm2ZHjoFW... Source: The Real Economy Blog #Econ #EconSky #Diesel #Inflationshare.googleThe folly of a diesel export banAn export ban would further strain a segmented U.S. energy market, send prices higher and harm the people the policy is intended to help. 2214
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 22/09/2026US Diesel Export Ban: it’s not only an own goal domestically take a look at the American trade partners it harms when it comes to distillate fuel oil. It’s Mexico, the EU (Netherlands), China & the UK. #Econ #EconSky #Diesel 1175
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Good afternoon. My brief research note on the folly of a diesel export ban that after a short period will result in a supply shortage and higher prices both domestically & globally. #Econ #EconSky #Energy #Diesel realeconomy.rsmus.com/the-folly-of...realeconomy.rsmus.comThe folly of a diesel export banAn export ban would further strain a segmented U.S. energy market, send prices higher and harm the people the policy is intended to help. 1132
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 22/09/2026A good be global, digital & compelling morning to all. The common denominator running through small, medium & large firms is the cost of doing business. #Econ #EconSky #Fed #CentralBanks realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut... Source: The Real Economy Blogrealeconomy.rsmus.comMarket Minute: Rate hikes coming to a central bank near youWe expect global central banks to raise their policy rates to counter the energy shock and the inflation that is once more taking hold. 241
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Good morning. With the US 10-year yield recent moving above 5% we subjected the economy to a greater rate shock to observe its impact on growth, employment & inflation. #Econ #EconSky #Fed #Rates #Inflation share.google/AKpwNY9AxaxP...share.googleWhat do higher yields look like? Our model shows their impact.We modeled a serios of shocks to identify the impact on growth, employment and inflation. The results show the challenge of bringing down inflation. 170
Reposted by Joe BrusuelasA Reader of the FT @a-reader-ft.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Five ways the Iran energy shock is wrongfooting the world— @joebrusuelas.bsky.social chief economist at accounting firm RSM US, warns the world has entered “oil shock 2.0”. He adds… www.ft.com/content/09c2... Malcolm Moore @financialtimes.comft.comFive ways the Iran energy shock is wrongfooting the worldDon’t obsess about the crude price and don’t think this crisis is like its predecessors 152
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Good morning. My thoughts on the structural transformation of the US economy that has resulted in the regime change in inflation & interest rates via @AP @ChrisRugaber #Econ #EconSky #Fed #Inflation share.google/Tp0ydv1ikcO3...share.googleFederal Reserve rate hike reflects new world of sticky inflation and faster growth - MyNorthwest.comWASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump has renewed his attacks on the Federal Reserve after it hiked its benchmark interest rate Wednesday, but the Fed 131
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 18/09/2026A look at the price of diesel which resides at $6.45 per gallon & regular unleaded at $4.47. Remember that any step to bar the export of diesel will result in a pull back of domestic production resulting in shortages and higher prices. 081
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Good morning. It would appear that the present difficulties are about to become more challenging. 0225
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 17/09/2026My discussion with @cnni @CNN on the @federalreserve policy decision and the likely direction of monetary policy going forward. video.snapstream.net/Play/9cDVs3F...video.snapstream.netWhat We Know With Max Foster - Joe BrusuelasPowered by SnapStream Cloud Sharing 150
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Good morning. A look here at the US primary budget deficit & why it will be necessary to bring it into balance and/or a modest surplus over the near to medium term. #Econ #EconSky share.google/9ywEFiDLzr2G...share.googleMarket Minute: Bringing the U.S. budget into balanceGiven the political dynamics in the United States, there is no castor oil constituency around which fiscal consolidation can be organized. 3101
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 16/09/2026My thoughts on the Fed policy rate decision via @cnni @CNN & the string probability we get another rate hike this year and one more in 2027 at the very least if the Fed intends to restore price stability. video.snapstream.net/Play/9cDVs3F...video.snapstream.netWhat We Know With Max Foster - Joe BrusuelasPowered by SnapStream Cloud Sharing 040
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Warsh getting in touch with his inner hawk at the outset of the presser. Let’s see if long rates ease a bit as the Fed chair reinforces his and the central bank’s credibility on restoring price stability. This is the best he’s been since taking the helm at the Fed. 191
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 16/09/2026FOMC Policy Decision: The Federal Open Market Committee today increases its federal funds policy rate by twenty-five basis points to a range between 3.75% and 4%. A look at the dot plot implies that the central bank will lift rates by an additional fifty basis points through 2027 to 4.5%… 141
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Good morning. US financial conditions are just under one standard deviation above neutral implying that the American economy is well positioned to absorb the rate hike we expect out of the Fed today. share.google/VtnQqpIgyjTj...share.googleMarket Minute: Financial conditions show ample room for Fed rate hikeWe expect the Fed to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range between 3.7% to 4% at its meeting on Wednesday. 0132
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 15/09/2026My thoughts on why global central bankers have suddenly started to sound quite hawkish via Marketplace by APM. #Econ #EconSky share.google/1tSOQOW6P39h...share.googleCentral bankers around the world are looking more hawkishThe Fed is expected to raise interest rates at its next meeting, and it won’t be alone. The ECB has already raised rates, and Japan is expected to follow suit. 020
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 15/09/2026As financial markets get underway this morning I thought it a good idea to remains all that the major risk right now is that the price for physical delivery of Brent crude which stands at $130 per barrel may soar past the wartime high of $144. #Econ #EconSky 143
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Inside the US-which is energy independent-the price of diesel has reached $6.23 per gallon as refiners are shipping greater quantities abroad at higher prices. A loss of refining capacity in the Middle East & Russia is on the margin sending diesel prices higher. #Econ #EconSky 122
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Dated Brent crude or the delivery price for a physical barrel of oil today reached $130.65 below the wartime high of $144.46. One would expect a test of that in coming days/weeks. Winter is coming. 2197
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 14/09/2026US 10-year yield breeches 5%. For the trading community oil & yields moving in tight correlation. For everyone else the three shocks and the regime change in inflation & interest rates rolls on. #Econ #EconSky 1155
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Good morning. Big week ahead in central banking. The BoE, Fed & BoJ all making policy decisions. The Fed will lift its policy rate by 25 bps, the BoJ will put forward a reluctant hike & the BoE will keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...realeconomy.rsmus.comMarket Minute: Toward synchronized global rate hikes … almostThis week we get the Bank of England, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy decisions that will lead to a further resetting of prices across asset classes. 0105
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 12/09/2026Good morning. Big week ahead in global central banking. The Fed will lift its policy rate by 25 bps, the BoJ will put forward a reluctant hike & the BoE will keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. #Econ #EconSky #Fed #BoJ #BoE realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...realeconomy.rsmus.comMarket Minute: Toward synchronized global rate hikes … almostThis week we get the Bank of England, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy decisions that will lead to a further resetting of prices across asset classes. 151
Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Looking forward to appearing in @questCNN tonight at 9:15 PM BST/4:15 PM ET to discuss today’s US CPI and its policy implications for the Federal Reserve with @paulanewtonCNN 040