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Ruo Shui

@ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social
29K followers 225 following 12K posts

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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 15h
"It’s a form of performative staging that consists of saying: 'Save us, regulation needs to slow things down because we don’t know what we’re doing.' And at the same time, they would like to have total control over how they are regulated."
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 15h
"Use is more common among students from non-English-speaking countries and at lower-ranked programs."
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Adam @adamshap.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
30% of stem phd dissertation abstracts written by AI
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Nathan Lambert @natolambert.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
At the end of this era I'll be the only open models person Nvidia hasn't acquired
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 15h
An official document from the Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), titled GENERAL LICENSE NO. 135: Authorizing Transactions Related to the Sale, Delivery, Offloading, and Importation of Diesel Fuel of Russian Federation Origin.   

The document text reads:
Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., Office of Foreign Assets Control, referencing Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Regulations (31 CFR part 587) and Ukraine-/Russia-Related Sanctions Regulations (31 CFR part 589).   

Section (a): Authorizes transactions prohibited by 31 CFR part 587 or 31 CFR part 589 related to the sale, delivery, offloading, or importation (including into the United States) of diesel fuel originating from the Russian Federation through 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 7, 2027.   

Section (b): Clarifies that the general license does not authorize any debit to an account on the books of a U.S. financial institution of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the National Wealth Fund of the Russian Federation, or the Ministry of Finance.   

Signature: Digitally signed by Bradley T. Smith, Director, Office of Foreign Assets Control. Date: Dated October 9, 2026
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 16h
Something that we are learning is that the concept of FU money is wrong. If anything, it’s been the world’s richest people that have debased themselves more than anyone
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SE Gyges @segyges.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
open source and open data as an ethos is largely anti capital and anti authority and is inherently political in ways we need more of
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 16h
people not interested in interpretability are usually uninteresting people
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 16h
This notification and remediation process is not optional. It is a critical national security obligation. We expect Anthropic and all companies to honor their obligations, immediately report incidents, fully cooperate with federal and state law enforcement authorities, remedy any damage, and implement concrete safeguards to ensure these failures do not reoccur.
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 16h
ft.com
Nvidia in talks to acquire US ‘open’ model start-up Reflection AI
Donald Trump’s administration hopes the company will rival cheap Chinese alternatives such as DeepSeek
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
really cool to make code and data available like this so anyone can try to replicate and comb through the analysis themselves
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Ben Glasner @benglasner.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
It remains shocking to me that we have seen a full scale reversal of the post-COVID trend in wage growth. Since March 2025, real wages are down across the distribution. Only the 25th is up (+1%). let’s look at how odd this is in the context of the last 40+ years. @innovateeconomy.bsky.social
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Text of Trump order forming committee to investigate Lisa Cook www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
whitehouse.gov
Establishment of a Committee of Inquiry to Investigate Allegations of False Statements by Lisa DeNell Cook
MEMORANDUM FOR THE ATTORNEY GENERAL THE COUNSEL TO THE PRESIDENT THE ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR ECONOMIC POLICY THE DIRECTOR OF THE OFFICE OF
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
really good chart from @benglasner.bsky.social
Line chart titled "Figure 3: Real wages grew in short bursts, when unemployment was low" showing the monthly civilian unemployment rate from 1982 to 2026 alongside average unemployment rates across five distinct wage eras:   

First long wage stagnation (Dec 1982 – early 1990s): 165 months, +0.1% a year annual growth in median real hourly wage (grey line average).   

IT boom (late 1990s – 2001): 54 months, +2.6% a year (green line average below 5% unemployment).   

Second long wage stagnation (2001–2015): 164 months, +0.4% a year (grey line average).   

Nascent recovery (2015–2020): 63 months, +1.8% a year (green line average below 5% unemployment).   

COVID-19 aftermath (2020 to date): 79 months to date, +1.0% a year (green line average below 5% unemployment, following a massive spike in unemployment above 14% in early 2020).
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amos @fasterthanli.me · 09/10/2026
Honeymoon with Astra is over btw :/ if they truly don’t fuck with quantized variants based on time of day / release schedule then woo, humans are bad at estimating model quality huh. Maybe I should stick with Chinese models for ML work?
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
cnbc.com
Treasury's Bessent hires Trump's controversial former Fed board pick, Judy Shelton, as adviser
Shelton's controversial economic ideas led the Senate to block her nomination to the Federal Reserve. Now she's be a counselor to the Treasury secretary.
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
A stacked area chart titled "US construction spending" showing values in billions of US dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate from 2014 to 2026. The chart displays spending trends across four stacked categories:   

Residential (dark blue area at the base): Represents the largest portion, rising steadily from under $400 billion in 2014 to a peak around $1,000 billion in 2022, before slightly declining toward $850 billion near 2026.   

Manufacturing (medium blue area): Remains a thin layer until around 2022, where it expands significantly, contributing to total spending.   

Commercial real estate (brown area): Shows consistent growth over the period, peaking around 2024–2025.   

AI bucket (data centers & power) (red area at the top): Highlighted in red text, showing steady growth as the top layer, reaching total aggregate US construction spending near $1,600 billion in 2024 before tapering slightly toward 2026.   

The vertical y-axis ranges from $0 to $1,800 billion in increments of $200. The horizontal x-axis tracks years from 2014 to 2026. 

Source is listed as Census Bureau and JPMAM, July 2026.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
> @dkthomp.bsky.social
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
New from me: The labor market has strengthened but like the stock market it’s become narrower and more dependent on the AI buildout conorsen.substack.com/p/the-labor-...
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
More data from Indeed on data center jobs: Pay premiums are pretty substantial for data center jobs vs. other jobs with a similar job title. Additionally, benefits look to be more generous too. Source: hiringlab.indeed.com/2026/08/13/w...
Faceted dumbbell chart titled “Data center roles pay a premium over the same job elsewhere” shows median posted pay for data center vs. non-data center postings with the same job title taken from January to June 2026. The figure is divided into an upper panel detailing annual pay and a lower panel detailing hourly pay. The largest premium is for a facilities manager (63%). Heatmap-styled chart titled “Data center jobs advertise more benefits” shows how much more often a US data center posting advertises each benefit (Health, Dental, 401k, PTO, Parental Leave, Relocation Assistance, and a Signing Bonus) compared to a non-data center posting in each occupation, measured over January to June 2026, where 1x = the same rate of advertising.
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Axios @axios.com · 09/10/2026
SCOOP: Top executives at Anthropic, OpenAI and other AI companies are privately gaming out scenarios for a public and political revolt after a catastrophic AI event.
axios.com
Scoop: AI companies plot "day after" scenarios for public revolt
Inside the AI industry's worst-case-scenario prep.
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
A line chart titled Wage Growth Tracker, showing the twelve-month moving average of median wage growth in hourly data percent from 2018 to 2026, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.   

The chart tracks five metrics:   
Overall (blue line)   
1st quartile (green line)   
2nd quartile (yellow line)   
3rd quartile (light blue line)   
4th quartile (red line)   

A tooltip highlights the values for September 2026:   
Overall: 3.7%   
1st quartile: 3.4%   
2nd quartile: 4.0%   
3rd quartile: 3.9%   
4th quartile: 3.8%
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
They wrote up a letter talking about how they believe they were fired for prioritizing safety over the near-term interests of OpenAI as a corporation
OpenAI cannot make AI safe on its own

A note on third-party collaborations, open debate, and clear operating procedures

Dear Safety and Security Committee, Safety Advisory Group, and Mission Advisory Council:

We are the three safety and alignment employees who were fired from OpenAI last week: Tomek Korbak, Jasmine Wang, and Mikita Balesni. We are writing to you because you hold oversight responsibility for safety at OpenAI; our firing and the way it was handled bear directly on it.

We have become concerned that internal and external communications around our firing have made our former colleagues afraid to speak and operate in ways that, until last week, were an integral part of working at OpenAI. We could raise safety concerns and disagree openly, and were encouraged to draw on the expertise of independent safety organizations. This is part of what made OpenAI special, and why we are immensely proud to have been part of the team.

AI is not a normal technology, and OpenAI is not a normal company. Those of us who work on safety see risks before anyone else, and we rely on close collaboration with outside experts to work out how to address them. The freedom to do so without fear, and to have well-defined internal procedures that enable this work, is itself an essential safety mechanism.

We do not believe the path to superintelligence can be navigated safely if the people closest to the risks can no longer work in high-trust, high-bandwidth ways with each other and with third parties. It is that culture we are writing to defend.
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Eugene Vinitsky 🍒 @eugenevinitsky.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
it only now hit me that I'm going to have to write "super intelligence" in all my grants now
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
H/T @arakharazian.bsky.social
Two side-by-side bar charts titled "AI spend is falling despite rising usage," showing indexed token spend and volumes across Ramp businesses from January to September.   

Left Chart (Token Volumes): Teal bar chart displaying a steady and strong upward trend, rising from under 100 in January to over 700 by September.   

Right Chart (Token Spend): Red bar chart showing spend rising steadily from January to a peak of around 600 in late summer, then dropping back to around 550 by September. An annotation notes that "AI Spend fell 5.2% from last week."
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 08/10/2026
OOPSIE-AI strikes again I blame the agents OpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled - as.ft.com/r/fcd72bb4-1...
as.ft.com
OpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled
AI giant recently told investors the key figure was approaching $50bn in September, far less than the $70bn that was widely reported
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
apnews.com
Microsoft is being suspended from program to apply for green cards for H-1B visa workers, Vance says
The Trump administration is suspending tech giant Microsoft from a program to apply for green cards for workers who come to the U.S. to live and work using an H-1B visa.
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whet moser @whetmoser.com · 08/10/2026
jesus www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/u...
cnn.com
Cornell’s Jane Doe is ‘terrified’ after death threats and a swatting incident, her lawyer says | CNN
One month ago, the woman now known to America as Cornell’s Jane Doe was living in New York City and trying to break into the hotel industry, her lawyer says. Now she’s facing threats and hiding out at...
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Nick Kodama 🌳👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
LLM (Large Line Man) solves math problem
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
"In particular, we show that the formalised Lean proof does not correspond to the NL proof of blow-up of solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations."
arxiv.org
Navier-Stokes lost in translation: Why Lean verification of AI autoformalisation does not guarantee correct natural language proofs
Autoformalisation is increasingly used to verify mathematical texts, including those generated by AI, as in OpenAI's announced proof of blow-up of solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations. In this pro...
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
"productivity" not found in this speech
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
a lot of charts look like this
$PEP stock chart
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
this headline won't even last the week
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Furman joins the crowd out takes
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
bond bulls gonna be talking Economist cover contra
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
"In one Claude Code session, the user asked Claude to create a security researcher résumé that specifically included bullet points conveying the results of the ARTEX-related activity. The prompt included the following personal details..."
crowdstrike.com
Unknown Threat Actor Uses AI-Driven ARTEX to Target South Korean Finance
CrowdStrike Intelligence identified infrastructure associated with a targeted campaign against South Korean financial institutions that resulted in exfiltrated data.
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Mark Riedl @markriedl.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The Capabilibara project seeks to understand how a language model learns to interpret people's beliefs, emotions, intentions, and everyday moral choices. We trace that ability back to the training data using influence functions and unlearning hcai-lab-gt.github.io/capabilibara/ Find us at COLM!
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Trump admin's new rule adding prohibitively expensive new fees for "OPT"—temporary work authorization program for international students and new grads in the United States—is out. Would require colleges to pay $70,000 for year one. $30,000 for years two and three combined for STEM fields.
public-inspection.federalregister.gov
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Adobe has been struggling for a while and this won't help
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Eugene Vinitsky 🍒 @eugenevinitsky.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Almost all major media (LLMs included) is now owned by a very small number of people / governments. An exciting propaganda war looms on the horizon
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Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
TS Isaias is now strengthening, shifting E. Frcst Cat 2-3 on landfall, impact ~1.5mbpd of refining capacity- primary concerns flooding and winds. Some refiners in the path will likely have to start reducing throughput very soon. Could impact prices- watching- will update.
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
"Investors who SpaceX has previously approached about financing its multibillion-dollar chip purchase said they only received a short two-page deal memo with pictures of outer space and an arrow pointing out that the company was going to build data centres 'somewhere in the universe'."
ft.com
SpaceX looks to raise $40bn to buy Nvidia chips
Blockbuster debt deal is the latest sign of the vast spending on chips and other infrastructure underpinning AI
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
reuters.com
Micron Tech chipmaker union in Taiwan gets OK to strike
A Taiwan union representing workers at Micron Technology said on Wednesday it had secured authorisation from its members to strike over a ​dispute concerning the company's bonus scheme, escalating a l...
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Counterfactual line without tariffs (blue dashed line)
A line chart titled "Tariffs Raised Consumer Goods Price Inflation" showing consumer price inflation percentage from January 2022 to early 2026.

Inflation peaked above 9% in mid-2022, steadily dropped below 0% by 2024, and began diverging in early 2025.   

Actual Line (Red Solid Line): Rises back above 0% in 2025, reaching around 2% by early 2026.   

Counterfactual Line without Tariffs (Blue Dashed Line): Drops below 0% in early 2025 and remains negative through early 2026.   

Shaded Area: Highlights the gap between actual inflation and counterfactual inflation without tariffs.   

Sources & Notes: Cites data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, USITC, and BEA. Notes clarify that the solid line represents the 12-month change in prices across 67 non-oil goods categories, and the dashed line subtracts estimated tariff contributions.
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Bar chart from John Burns Research & Consulting titled "What’s the highest acceptable fixed mortgage rate you’d take on for a home purchase?" showing the share of US homeowners and renters who plan to purchase their next home with a mortgage across various interest rate thresholds:   
Under 3.0%: 100%   
3.0%–3.49%: 94%   
3.5%–3.99%: 84%   
4.0%–4.49%: 73%   
4.5%–4.99%: 60%   
5.0%–5.49%: 48% (highlighted in purple as the "Magic mortgage rate")   
5.5%–5.99%: 32%   
6.0%–6.49%: 23%   
6.5%–6.99%: 13%   
7.0%–7.49%: 10%   
7.5%–7.99%: 6% (highlighted in dark blue as "Today's mortgage rate")
8.0%–8.49%: 4%   
8.5%–8.99%: 3%   
9.0%+: 2%   
Source: New Home Trends Institute by John Burns Research and Consulting, LLC, September 2026 survey of 1,268 US homeowners and renters (Pub: Sep-26).
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
time.com
Meta’s Muse AI Agent Is Building a Dossier On You
Internal instructions reviewed by TIME show the AI assistant mapping users and their contacts—including people who don’t use Muse—and sharing anonymized insights across its system.
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
1T Le Chonk Open weights release end of October
mistral.ai
Introducing Mistral Large 4 | Mistral
The most powerful AI platform for enterprises. Customize, fine-tune, and deploy AI assistants, autonomous agents, and multimodal AI with open models.
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
gonna need this same survey for AI
A line graph titled "Some nations are now as negative as the U.S. about social media's impact on democracy," showing the percentage of respondents who say social media has been "more of a bad thing" for democracy in their country between 2022 and 2026.   

U.S. (light blue line) remains flat at around 64% from 2022 to 2026.   Netherlands (red line) rises significantly from just over 50% in 2022 to nearly 70% in 2026, surpassing all other listed countries.   

France (yellow line) increases from roughly 50% to equal the U.S. at around 64%.   

Germany (white line) shows a sharp increase from about 40% in 2022 to over 60% in 2026.   

U.K. (orange line) and Canada (purple line) both rise from around 48–50% to roughly 54–55%.   

Several other unnamed nations (faded grey lines) are also shown increasing from lower percentages across the same period.
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vegavandal.bsky.social @vegavandal.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Must be frustrating this year to be a software investor and have the terminal value of your co in question when like IREN is more likely than not a donut by 2031
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Joe Brusuelas @joebrusuelas.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
US Trade Deficit: take a look at the August increase in the The primary driver is imports of industrial supplies to support the cap ex buildout of AI. Imports were up 4.3% on the month, exports 1.6% after falling over the previous two months. #Econ
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