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1/ The latest Homebase Main Street Health Report is out, for the month of September. www.joinhomebase.com/data/septemb... Key insights: 1/ Hiring by America's small businesses was up 0.1% Y/Y, a small increase but nevertheless the first one in about two years.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 2h

It’s everyone’s prerogative to put whatever spin they want on the labor market data but… The data are fairly upbeat (not perfect) and at present the job market is getting slowly better, as it has been for much of the year.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 2h

ADP looked good in September, consistent with almost all the other alternate data (and claims). I don't think we'll match last month's NFP gain but the number should be pretty good, high double digits or very low triple digits. UR should go down as well

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 5h

Just once, I want to watch an adversarial hearing where a flustered Senator exclaims at the witness, “Well… the jerk store called. They’re running out of you!” Alas

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 21h

Dumb question since I don’t have access to detailed consumer confidence data - does it support the K shaped economy story? (A growing confidence gap between low income households than high income households)

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 21h

Friday’s report is probably too soon but we’re probably going to see at least one “rounded” 4.0% unemployment in a 2026 employment situation And an unrounded number below 4.0000% is definitely possible

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 22h

On Friday at 630 AM PT / 930 AM ET, me and fellow jobs market nerd @kedseconomist.com will be digesting the September jobs report live: open.substack.com/live-stream/...

open.substack.com

LIVE SOON: Jobs Day with Guy and Keds

Starting Oct 2 at 9:30 AM EDT

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 22h

Maybe I'd be less disappointed about the very small increase in hiring if I read my own conditional forecasts! Link to my recap of the August JOLTS report: macromostly.substack.com/p/jolts-reca...

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Today we had an extremely impressive new entrant into the Chick Hearn Memorial "The Mustard Fell off the Hot Dog" Sports Hall of Fame

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

As recently as 4-6 weeks ago I characterized the labor market recovery as "on pause", but now it's clearly unpaused. September was a good month for jobs

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Indeed job postings: 1/ More good news about the labor market, as of the 2nd half of September (so possibly more relevant to the October jobs report, than to Friday's September jobs report) After a micro-slump over the summer, postings regaining their spring momentum

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Time for legislation banning sports teams names, we'll refer to them by serial numbers from now on

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

JOLTS thread: 1/ This was a meh report. Hiring did rebound a little bit, and is up modestly relatively to late 2025... but still quite frozen. Layoffs declined and quits were unchanged.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

In case you're interested in tomorrow's JOLTS report (August data), I have a short preview! macromostly.substack.com/p/jolts-prev...

macromostly.substack.com

JOLTS Preview

Will Hiring Pick Up More of the Burden?

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

One of the most disruptive economic/social “events” of all time was the combo of industrialization and agricultural productivity growth which we all benefit from today. And arguably at the root of the 20th century’s greatest catastrophes

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Folks, “we can avoid mass AI-induced unemployment” does not imply “we can avoid mass AI-induced labor market disruption” and you shouldn’t conflate the two

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Unemployment rate index from Morning Consult in September has been the lowest since May... part of a near-consensus among the alternate and high frequency data that this was a good month for the labor market. I expect positive news on Friday.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Why is everyone so mad about the Cleveland song? It sounds no better or worse than most of her other songs

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Using Claude for its intended purpose: designing a badge ballot for a Brownie troop

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Really enjoyed this piece by @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @weakinstrument.bsky.social [not the only ones to make this point, but nicely argued] An interesting question is whether this is just setting shareholder value on fire, or inducing bigger problems econjared.substack.com/p/ai-compani...

econjared.substack.com

AI Companies Are In a Race Against Time

They may disemploy us; they may wipe us out. But right now, their lack of profitability underscores our bubble case.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Markets are rigged (in favor of the broad market index funds in your 401k)

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

“I support low interest rates, hawkishly”

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

If my portfolio was heavily weighted to crypto I too would be aggressively advocating for low interest rates

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Erdoganomics really having its moment on my Twitter feed today! Including from people who claim to think monetary policy was too easy under the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen/Powell Fed

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Has any politician tried “AI is making mortgage rates high” yet Because if not, it’s coming

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Next week's jobs report will probably take another step toward the good place... My recap of this week's upbeat labor market data: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...

macromostly.substack.com

High Frequency Labor Market Indicators (9/24)

Another good week of labor market data

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

My kids are excited about Halloween but I know what makes late October truly special

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

CPS-based turnover recap: 1/ Hiring & quits up M/M in August, layoffs down. But these are noisy data, and what stands out to me is a surprising recent patch of weak quits.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Why is this a problem (new or otherwise) for Kevin Warsh and the Fed if you’re trying to squeeze inflation rising rates are a feature not a bug

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

If I could have any single data release that is not yet available it would be the Q3 ECI

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

One of my favorite genres of data skepticism is “how can you trust data from the federal government?” directed at data not collected by the federal government

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

According to the Census Bureau Business Trends & Outlook Survey, US firms' headcount plans and actions remain more expansionary (on a diffusion index basis) than they were a year ago. However, on recent actions: the improvement is smaller than it was earlier this year.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

After pausing for a few months, the 2026 labor market recovery has resumed

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Claims: 1/ The good labor market news continues. Initial claims below 200K, again. Layoffs, so low.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Claims looked really good last week… wonder what happens tmw

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

“Also, let's not forget - let's *not* forget, Dude - that keeping wildlife, an amphibious rodent, for uh, domestic, you know, within the city - that aint legal either”

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

This week I got a poasting trifecta - Salieri gif, Jim Downey meme, and a “Mighty Casey at the Bat” I also got to like someone else’s excellent Don Draper pitch meme! Life is good

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I wrote about data centers and butter. Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/data-cente...

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Some of the state level results we’ve seen seem “crazy” or hard to believe (at least to me; I’m not a politics knower) but this is useful context (From @natesilver538bot.bsky.social )

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It happened... Indeed job postings are now positive on a Y/Y basis, for the first time in almost 4 years. On a levels basis the decline stopped a long time ago. But if there's a recovery, it's a slow one.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Have disagreed with Stephanie on a bunch of stuff but she’s right that in 1979-2019 monetary policy had a disinflationary (and implicitly anti-full-employment) bias (Screenshot because @stephaniekelton.bsky.social and jesse_livermore didn’t post it here)

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It’ll be like fancy restaurants. People with lots of disposable income will employ technically unproductive employees as a signal of status. The plebs will “employ” agents (Screenshot as @weisenthal.bsky.social doesn’t post here)

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It’s darkest before the dawn When the folks at Trader Joe’s check the back room and they do in fact have organic half and half

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Private sector employment growth building up a fair amount of momentum in the 4 weeks through Labor Day weekend, according to ADP I think the next jobs report is going to be a good one

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

August was a pretty good month for the job market. In the latest update on the small biz economy from Homebase, I talk about a spike in turnover… we think it can be attributed to the World Cup. And our next Report comes out next week! www.joinhomebase.com/blog/small-b...

joinhomebase.com

Small Business Economy News: The Main Street Health Report

Your small business economy news for August 2026: Homebase data on 100K+ businesses shows employment grew by 162,000 this month.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The mid 2020s policy mix: data centers and butter

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

How much of this is that the spring of 2020 was a brief period of distress (with major financial support from the government) and otherwise genuinely bad economic times are really far in the rear view mirror

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