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Jonathan Todd

@yontodd.bsky.social
2.5K followers 501 following 890 posts

📈📉 US markets/macro/Fed/housing (all opinions here = own). 🗣️ Learning French with very modest success (Intermediate/B1). 📍Chicago, but always very Californian.

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Reposted by Jonathan Todd
James Ball @jamesrball.com · 13h
Great way to demonstrate the club isn't state owned and is a totally independent business, honest.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 18h
Brentreé
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18h
This is fine etc etc $PSKY $ORCL www.ft.com/content/2c56...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 23h
“What a chart.” - Bespoke
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Forget "I don't blame you, Kevin," the "This just happened?" is the best quote on Trump/Fed bit time.com/article/2026...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I know I should be writing about rates and serious macro things, but I took some liberties and compared the market’s crap breadth with how MLB has worked in recent years The main takeaway is clearly that if you don’t like the Dodgers, you probably don’t like resilient equity portfolios
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Net exports, consumer spending a bigger than expected drag on growth... Atlanta Fed GDPNow down from 5.0% to 3.7% www.atlantafed.org/research-and...
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
tracking human-human interaction is becoming increasingly important
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Barry Butler Photography @barrybutler9.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Fire on Friday. Today's sunrise over the Chicago skyline.
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bendwalsh.bsky.social @bendwalsh.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
an ex-Chelsea owner enmeshed in the Russian oil industry?!
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
$FUN -45% since Travis Kelce got involved www.wsj.com/business/dea...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Correct. Similarly, this was probably my favorite read from the weekend. www.newyorker.com/culture/the-...
newyorker.com
Should the Classroom Be More Like the Gym?
As A.I. presses harder on the academic enterprise, we might look to a place where process is its own reward.
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Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
my brilliant colleague @robertshrimsley.bsky.social on the threat from Elon Musk’s X platform www.ft.com/content/f270...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
From today's Athletic FC newsletter... "'I want to reclaim the flag for us,' Klopp said. 'I don’t want to leave national pride to the wrong people.' If any coach is tailor-made for that mission, it’s him."
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
wild -- Lennar has cut new home ASPs by ~30% since 2022, from $511K to $359K Good thread from over there x.com/nickgerli1/s...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
“The word ‘Deficit’ is nothing more than a fancy word for LOSS” -Michael Scott Oh wait...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
"Clearlake will hope that paying up to end the club’s messy governance will improve decision making. It has its work cut out to give Boehly seller’s remorse." www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Are Chelsea’s Also-Rans Really Worth £5 Billion?
There are far less stressful ways to make a modest profit than dabbling in an English Premier League football club. So financier Todd Boehly must feel some relief to be leaving Chelsea FC without fina...
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Ivan the K ™ @ivanthek.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
He will never understand monetary economics. He was a non-investment grade issuer in the private sector. He does not have the capacity or the curiosity to learn fiat currency economics. Note, he doesn't mention Warsh.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Stephen Moore on the TV, the pride of... New Trier HS?
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 15/09/2026
Big things are happening. Foreign investors prefer US stocks to Treasuries as debt worries grow - www.ft.com/content/e565...
ft.com
Foreign investors prefer US stocks to Treasuries as debt worries grow
International flows into American equities exceed government debt for first time this century outside pandemic and aftermath of global financial crisis
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
75% of investors say Treasury bond buybacks either do nothing or push yields higher -- from BofA FMS
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Bob Burgess @bobburgess.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
When a member of TBAC says this, it's time to pay attention: “...there are emerging-market-type risks in some of the actions the US has been taking,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and a member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
"The new private buyers pay far more attention to yield and have to be offered higher and higher rates to absorb the growing Treasury supply." www.ft.com/content/a441...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Risk is defintiely to the upside on rates, I'd be very amused to see a surge of people rushing to lock in that 7.07% mortgage
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Gee wizz, would you look at how quickly investors are marking up their expectations for long-run economic growth in the US!
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
30Y was 5.34% on 18-Aug, the day before the Treasury buyback announcement Now: 5.30%
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
brb going to quit my job so I can homeschool my kids www.wsj.com/opinion/why-...
wsj.com
Opinion | Why Send a Child to Public School?
The common query about home schooling should be flipped.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Today in Championship football: - The team with American owners vs the team with American/Canadian co-owners - The team with American owners vs the team with a bunch of Americans
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
And yet Al Hilal dropping £110M between Gabriel Martinelli and Ollie Watkins this weekend
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Some thoughts on Warsh's speech: - A big improvement vs his post-FOMC press conferences so far. A clearer message and assessment of the economy. (Re)committing to PCE was important. - It increasingly feels to me like he's tilting at windmills wrt forward guidance and the reaction function.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Some thoughts on why long-end yields were higher in recent weeks. Apparently I'm allowing myself to draw the wrong conclusions. yontodd.substack.com/p/whats-behi...
yontodd.substack.com
What's behind higher yields? It depends on who you ask
Though, spoiler alert, Druckenmiller is right and Miran is wrong
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Barry Butler Photography @barrybutler9.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Sunrays on Sunday. Yesterday over Chicago in Black & White.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Ugh... Man City was due, but would have been fun to see (at least) 3 of the big 6 get a ❌ week 1
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Michael Warburton @michaelwarburton.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Nearly all the extras in this iconic scene were French expatriates. Their tears during the stirring rendition of La Marseillaise were genuine— filmed at a time when the fate of France was still uncertain. CASABLANCA (1942) #MichaelCurtiz
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
MANU (Manchester United) Relegation risk a massive revenue overhang; downgrade to Underperform P/T cut to $18
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Can confirm - I have 4 separate orders from Walmart arriving today. And I spend way more with WMT than AMZN.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
BBG Intelligence on Bessent playing the lack of liquidity: "Choosing to announce this... outside of the quarterly refunding cycle, in a quiet summer week with no meaningful economic data and likely thin summer liquidity, was meant to boost the magnitude of market reaction from the announcement."
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Very much waiting for a reporter to ask Bessent, "If you were still at Soros and saw Treasury intervening like this without any actual fiscal consolidation, what trade would you put on?"
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 19/08/2026
*stares in Turkish*
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Are the Dodgers sold by the end of the week? And oh yeah, recall that includes Ohtani deferral of $680M fron 2034 to 2043
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 17/08/2026
Man things are dire for Walter.
ft.com
Chelsea shareholders Mark Walter and Todd Boehly in talks to sell their stakes to Clearlake
Negotiations come amid clashes over strategy and as Walter’s business empire faces scrutiny from regulators
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
My "won't exercise key-man opt-out clause t-shirt" etc etc www.nytimes.com/athletic/751...
nytimes.com
Shohei Ohtani would not exercise “key man” opt-out clause if Mark Walter sells Dodgers: source
A clause in Ohtani's contract would let him leave the Dodgers if Walter sold the team. He is not expected to exercise it if that transpired.
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Nice 20% return for Mark Walter in 14 months www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
espn.com
Sources: Josh Kushner, Bob Iger to buy Lakers for $12B
The Lakers are being sold to American businessman Josh Kushner and Bob Iger for over $12 billion, a record-breaking price, multiple sources told ESPN.
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Heather Stewart @guardianheather.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Cannot begin to describe how much this makes me want to scream...apparently AI bots can help you read books now...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
"⁠⁠The skill of deep thinking will likely become rarer and rarer..." www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
FFS People should be reading *more* books (and ideally on paper) precisely because it forces your brain into taking in information slower/more deliberately than reading AI or tweets
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 10/08/2026
currency intervention in a nutshell
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
“The danger is that higher yields might instead reflect the risk of Mr Warsh’s experiment going wrong. “Nothing ever happens” can be a good bet. But central bankers’ reputations are made when something does.” economist.com/finance-and-...
economist.com
What will Kevin Warsh do if America’s economy breaks?
An enigmatic Fed faces the risk of AI stocks falling and the oil price soaring
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Jonathan Todd @yontodd.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Tried to let it settle for a weekend but still can’t stop thinking about that Musalem. Fun times in Fedland. open.substack.com/pub/yontodd/...
open.substack.com
The Fed’s Fractured Front
A historic sell-off in long-dated Treasuries, three hawkish dissents, and leaks out of Eccles Building signal an FOMC losing its grip on institutional discipline.
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