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Lawrence Freedman

@ldfreedman.bsky.social
56K followers 121 following 693 posts

Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London. Latest Book Strategists and Strategy: collected essays, 2014-2024. Substack Comment is Freed samf.substack.com

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 14h
New post: Burnham has shown this week that he is doing the job of PM in a way Starmer could not. But a sense of purpose only goes so far. What does the radical rhetoric really mean? What are the next steps? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/a-journey-...
samf.substack.com
A journey without a map
Burnham has given Labour a sense of purpose, but what does it really mean?
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Latest post considers the ‘forgotten war’ of Sudan. I consider the state of the fighting, the humanitarian crisis, and the logic of partition. This is another example of the difficulty of extracting a good peace from a bad war. (This one is free). samf.substack.com/p/the-sudan-...?
samf.substack.com
The Sudan War: is there any way out?
Since April 2023 Sudan has been consumed by a vicious war that gets far too little attention in the West.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
If a 'Blue Wave' comes in the midterms, leaving Dems in control of both House and Senate, how will they use their new power and how with Trump react? In his new post @samfr considers the possibilities. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/what-happe...
samf.substack.com
What happens if the Democrats sweep the midterms?
Back in March, when I first looked at the midterms, the Democrats were already favourites to win the House.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
New post: Midterms polling is getting dramatically worse for Trump. So what happens if he loses the House and Senate? What could the Democrats do with the powers they'd gain? What impact would it have on global politics? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/what-happe...
samf.substack.com
What happens if the Democrats sweep the midterms?
Back in March, when I first looked at the midterms, the Democrats were already favourites to win the House.
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Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is very good indeed. Highly informative and properly researched. Easy and clear English makes it a pleasure to read. It looks as if Russia is now ignoring the 1856 Declaration of Paris which ended privateering. (The USA has never signed the declaration; Russia did.)
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Russia is stepping up its campaign to weaken Europe and undermine its support for Ukraine. @hannanotte.bsky.social provides an informed and lucid assessment of what Putin is put to, how far he might go, and how European countries should respond. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/putins-cam...?
samf.substack.com
Putin’s campaign against Europe
How far will he go?
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Hanna Notte @hannanotte.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
@ldfreedman.bsky.social invited me to reflect on Russia’s escalating measures against Europe - and where we might be headed. The essay builds on my book We Shall Outlast Them, which is out now in the UK and Europe
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Russia is stepping up its campaign to weaken Europe and undermine its support for Ukraine. @hannanotte.bsky.social provides an informed and lucid assessment of what Putin is put to, how far he might go, and how European countries should respond. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/putins-cam...?
samf.substack.com
Putin’s campaign against Europe
How far will he go?
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Very good @foreignaffairs.com podcast interview by Dan Kurtz-Phelan with @ldfreedman.bsky.social, on the changing nature of military conflict, with plenty of examples from Ukraine and the Persian Gulf. www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/how...
foreignaffairs.com
How to Understand the New Age of War
A Conversation With Lawrence D. Freedman
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Iain Mansfield @igmansfield.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Great piece by @samfr.bsky.social on England's school success story. samf.substack.com/p/why-englan...
samf.substack.com
Why England’s schools are doing so well
And what we need to focus on next
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
New post out: England's schools are now the second highest performing in the world outside the far east, according to the OECD's PISA study. Is this because of policy? Attitude to technology? Cultural factors like immigration? And where can we still improve? samf.substack.com/p/why-englan...
samf.substack.com
Why England’s schools are doing so well
And what we need to focus on next
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Ukrainians forces have recently announced a successful counterattack in the Lyman area. Operation Vivaldi weakens Russia’s ability to take Donetsk In this post I ask if this is a turning point and what it tells us about this stage of the land war. samf.substack.com/p/operation-...?
samf.substack.com
Operation Vivaldi and the Battle for Donetsk
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has three distinctive components.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Ukrainians forces have recently announced a successful counterattack in the Lyman area. Operation Vivaldi weakens Russia’s ability to take Donetsk In this post I ask if this is a turning point and what it tells us about this stage of the land war. samf.substack.com/p/operation-...?
samf.substack.com
Operation Vivaldi and the Battle for Donetsk
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has three distinctive components.
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Tony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Really recommend the @foreignaffairs.com interview with @ldfreedman.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/h...
podcasts.apple.com
How to Understand the New Age of War: A Conversation With Lawrence D. Freedman
Podcast Episode · The Foreign Affairs Interview · September 17 · 1h 1m
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aspirationalbob.bsky.social @aspirationalbob.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Well researched, doom laden prgnostications from the Freedmans?
static.klipy.com
You're Joking, Not Another One!
ALT: You're Joking, Not Another One!
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
New post: A global bond market sell-off is causing serious problems for govts + there is growing nervousness about debt levels. I talked to the brilliant @robinwigglesworth.ft.com to ask how worried we should be and what can be done about it. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/how-much-d...
samf.substack.com
How much debt is too much?
It’s looming global economic risks week at Comment is Freed.
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Gerard @groverxv.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I urge you to read this. We are facing a grim global winter.
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Fionna O’Leary @fascinatorfun.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
“Maritime commerce is responsible for moving roughly 90% of world trade by volume. Almost everything we buy, use, eat, and need travels by boat. Almost 100% of our communication, be it telephonic or internet, goes through the network of submarine cables sitting on the ocean floor.“
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Very grateful to Ian Ralby for contributing this authoritative and rather alarming piece on the unfolding crises caused first by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and now the Houthis control over the Bab al-Mandeb (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/houthis-ho...
samf.substack.com
Houthis, Hormuz and the “chokepoint” threat to the global economy
Today and Thursday we have two posts addressing big risks facing the global economy.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Very grateful to Ian Ralby for contributing this authoritative and rather alarming piece on the unfolding crises caused first by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and now the Houthis control over the Bab al-Mandeb (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/houthis-ho...
samf.substack.com
Houthis, Hormuz and the “chokepoint” threat to the global economy
Today and Thursday we have two posts addressing big risks facing the global economy.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
New post: Young people are increasingly unhappy. It's a real phenomenon + nothing to do with "snowflakes". There are lots of standard culprits - social media, school, economy - but none can explain the long-term trend. So what is going on? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-agency...
samf.substack.com
The Agency Gap
Why are young people increasingly unhappy?
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
In Comment is Freed today @samfr.bsky.social interviews Dame Emily Lawson about the success of the Covid vaccine rollout. Part of our effort to find examples of UK government working well and what might be learned from them. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/when-gover...?
samf.substack.com
When government works
The story of the vaccine rollout
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
My latest post examines the buildup to the Witkoff/Kushner visits to Moscow and Kyiv. There is no evidence of progress and won’t be until Putin is no longer sure that his troops are on the verge of victory. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/can-putin-...?
samf.substack.com
Can Putin be persuaded he is not winning?
Towards a “hurting stalemate”
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Latest post from Sam asks whether the divisions on the right mean that they can not win power. samf.substack.com/p/will-the-r...?
samf.substack.com
Will the right stay split?
Sometimes the most important political shifts are the ones that didn’t happen.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
New post out: The split between the Tories and Reform is disastrous for the right. I look at the liklihood of possible resolutions: a pact, either party gaining dominance, a leadership change or the right-wing press picking a horse. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/will-the-r...
samf.substack.com
Will the right stay split?
Sometimes the most important political shifts are the ones that didn’t happen.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
A little 36-hour Bluesky exclusive back-to-school offer on the substack.... 25% off for your first year. (Please feel free to share the link with friends not on here. Can also be used to buy gift subs for kids starting politics A-level / degrees....) samf.substack.com/specialoffer
samf.substack.com
Subscribe to Comment is Freed
Politics, policy analysis, and foreign affairs from Sam and Lawrence Freedman. Click to read Comment is Freed, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Sam muscling into my patch. I may have to start writing about council elections in response.
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Declan Gaffney @greyskiesthinking.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Great to see Albert O. Hirschman's analysis of policy rhetoric being applied so well.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
New post: With climate change now visible all around us opponents of action are changing tack. Dismantling their new attacks helps identify a hidden structure in political argument that is often used to try and kill popular + necessary policies. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/how-to-kil...
samf.substack.com
How to kill a popular policy
Opposing action to tackle climate change is getting tricker.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
What makes the Iran War especially stupid? In this post I show how it meets key criteria for stupid wars: it went ahead despite likelihood of a bad outcome and decisions on its conduct made situation worse. Comparison are made with Iraq and Suez. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/good-wars-...?
samf.substack.com
Good Wars, Bad Wars, and Stupid Wars
Could the war in Iran do even more damage to the US than Iraq?
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
What makes the Iran War especially stupid? In this post I show how it meets key criteria for stupid wars: it went ahead despite likelihood of a bad outcome and decisions on its conduct made situation worse. Comparison are made with Iraq and Suez. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/good-wars-...?
samf.substack.com
Good Wars, Bad Wars, and Stupid Wars
Could the war in Iran do even more damage to the US than Iraq?
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Today’s must-read, IMHO.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
New post out: Much of the right - led by Elon Musk - has decided the world's problems are caused by "suicidal empathy". I look at where this phrase comes from, why it's a profoundly wrong misdiagnosis, and a misunderstanding of what empathy is. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-war-ag...
samf.substack.com
The war against empathy
Last week Reform’s treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick set out proposals to cut welfare spending on working age adults in half.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
New post out answering questions from subscribers covering lots on Russia and Ukraine, UK military spending: pressure on Israel and its coming elections; the deadlock between US and Iran; and historical figures to challenge at croquet. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/will-russi...?
samf.substack.com
Will Russia change course without a "cliff-edge" crisis? Will Netanyahu lose the Israeli election? How should we spend our defence budget?
Answering your questions
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Here are @samfr.bsky.social’s answers to the many questions we received, dealing with possibility of early election, whether Reform has peaked and can it be replaced by Restore, US elections and much more. My answers at weekend (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/should-bur...
samf.substack.com
Should Burnham call an early election? Have we passed peak Reform? Could Restore become an electorally viable party?
Answering your questions
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James Downie @jamescdownie.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
"The only virtue [sanctioning Iran] has for Trump is that because it is a continuation of the status quo, it is the laziest and easiest approach." – @dandrezner.bsky.social
danieldrezner.substack.com
Donald Trump Gives Up on American Foreign Policy
His administration cannot win in Iran and he is not even trying anywhere else.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Post today addresses the twin beliefs that AI can dispel the fog of war by making targeting more efficient but also increase it by providing adversaries with opportunities to pollute the information environment. It’s long but also free. samf.substack.com/p/ai-and-the...?
samf.substack.com
AI and the New Fog of War
I have been involved in two projects looking at the impact of AI on contemporary conflict.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Valuable reminder from @samfr.bsky.social of how the wider economic context shapes political choices and why Thatcherism took the form it did. Fascinating material on the origins of the ‘big bang’ in the City and the early impact of North Sea Oil. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/was-thatch...
samf.substack.com
Was Thatcher a Thatcherite?
The hidden history of "neoliberalism" in Britain
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
New post: "Was Thatcher a Thatcherite?" Much of what Thatcher (and New Labour) did was adapting to economic circumstances they didn't fully understand leading to outcomes they didn't expect. And why we risk making the same mistakes again. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/was-thatch...
samf.substack.com
Was Thatcher a Thatcherite?
The hidden history of "neoliberalism" in Britain
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
I’ll be interested to see this. I was an adviser to the 1987 movie - Breakthrough at Reykjavik - to which Tom refers. Norma Percy who directed, and her team was scrupulous in getting as exact a record as possible. This was acknowledged by many of the participants. 1/2
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
I've just posted our regular "ask us anything" for subscribers. Also runs through recent posts for those of you who've been away. samf.substack.com/p/ask-us-any...
samf.substack.com
Ask us anything
Every few months we offer paying subscribers the chance to ask us questions on any topic you like.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Excellent overview. NB: “And there is still an asymmetry is in the ability… to cause suffering... RU will have more missiles and can cause more damage. But there is another asymmetry. UKRs understand the war they face… They have no illusions about the even direr consequences of a RU victory.” Yup.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Latest post looks at distinctive strategies Russia and Ukraine are following as they step up long-range strikes against each other, looking at the consequences of Ukraine’s limited defences v missiles and the impact of its attacks on Wildberries. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-war-be...?
samf.substack.com
The war beyond the frontlines
Assessing Ukranian and Russian strategies for long-range attacks
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Jonathan Kingham @jonkingh.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Just back from holiday and very pleased to see that Sam Freedman has written the piece I was hoping he would (and it is great).
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
New post out: "The myth of the 'Boriswave'" The online right claim that the immigrants who arrived between 21-24 will bankrupt the country. This isn't remotely true but they've created a mainstream panic that could lead us down a dangerous path. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-myth-o...
samf.substack.com
The myth of the "Boriswave"
Over summer 2024 anonymous right-wing accounts on twitter, who support Reform or more extreme ethnonationalist parties, started using the term “Boriswave” to describe the brief but sharp rise in net m...
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
My latest post looks at alarmist literature about security threats and how best to engage with it - from William Le Queux before WW1 to Graham Allison on nuclear terrorism and war with China to Anne Jacobsen on nuclear and biological war. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/always-loo...?
samf.substack.com
Always Look on the Dark Side of Life
Warnings of doom from German spies to the Thucyides Trap to a biological war
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
New post out: There's going to be a lot of talk about wealth taxes in the run up to the budget. So we asked one of the country's leading experts to give us a ten year plan for doing it right. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
open.substack.com
The right way to tax wealth
A 10 year programme for an incoming government
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
New post just out: "Burnham's first mistake" Splitting 14 year olds into academic and vocational paths seems intuitive. But it's a terrible idea that risks increasing inequality, and closing down options for the young people that need them most. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...
open.substack.com
Burnham's first mistake
The problem with his education plan
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Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
🎙️ I joined @chathamhouse.org podcast with Sir @ldfreedman.bsky.social , Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko, John Lough. We discussed President Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington, his dismissal of Defence Minister Fedorov, 🇺🇦’s ability to retain initiative, and how to pressure Russia to the negotiating table👇
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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 28/07/2026
“Sovereign deep strike has granted Ukraine a level of recognition and agency it did not have before.” Great essay by @frhoffmann.bsky.social missilematters.substack.com/p/the-state-...
missilematters.substack.com
The State Makes the Missile, and the Missile Makes the State
The power to hurt: Ukraine's deep-strike campaign and the transformation of the Ukrainian state
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