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Edward Walker

@gnuggat.bsky.social
602 followers 170 following 3.5K posts

Retired. 1993-2017 Exec Director of the Berkeley Program in Soviet/Post-Soviet Affairs, Adj Assoc Prof Political Science.

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5h
Good for Macron. Thing is, though, if we get Le Pen I doubt Paris will be as welcoming. Still a big if at this point.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5h
Doubt that was all he said, but if that was the main message it almost certainly fell on deaf ears. Putin in particular is going to avoid doing at Gorbachev at all costs.
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🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 8h
❗️Ukraine is holding talks with several European countries and manufacturers to purchase tens of thousands of 20 mm shells for F-16 fighter-jet cannons in order to intercept Russian jet-powered drones. According to sources,
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George Eaton @georgeeaton.bsky.social · 9h
Wrote in June that Burnham should revive his Rejoin position and delighted that he has. The economic/geopolitical/electoral case has only got stronger. www.arguably.uk/p/we-cant-af...
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 5h
IMO the most important change has been the much more worrisome security environment, plus the massive deterioration in the relationship with Trump’s US. Getting UK (and eg Canada) on-side through some kind of arrangement like Norway’s wld be great for EUR solidarity/defense of liberal democracy.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 6h
Lest there be any doubt re what to expect this winter.
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🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 8h
❗️Today, Russia used a special warhead (KRSN) on a jet-powered UAV for the first time, – Advisor to the President of Ukraine “Flash”. This warhead was created specifically to destroy high-voltage transmission towers and steel bridge structures.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 6h
More on this. A “non-paper”?
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 6h
Solid analysis. NB: “Russia’s incentives to use hybrid pressure are increasing, raising the risk of further activity just as European energy markets come under greater strain.” Yup.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 7h
Thread. NB: “So it’s really a 100-year dream come true to finally get the Swedes to come over and commit to help defend Finland like this !” Good.
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 7h
⚡️Russia threatens European arms factories supplying Ukraine, says they are 'not safe'. "Weapons factories in European countries that produce arms for Ukraine are potential military targets for Russia," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said.
kyivindependent.com
Russia threatens European arms factories supplying Ukraine, says they are 'not safe'
"Weapons factories in European countries that produce arms for Ukraine are potential military targets for Russia," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 7h
Hmmm.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 10h
On RU’s (more-or-less) covert mobilization. Someone should write an academic piece (or update one) on RU’s increasingly elaborate and sophisticated toolkit of militarism.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 10h
Gonna be interrupted when the ice pack fills in but for sure the Northern Sea Route is going to help RU (and China, albeit less) in the long run.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 10h
Takeaway: Team Trump is contemplating sanctions relief in exchange for easily reversible, token political “liberalization” (in the sense of a tiny bit less illiberal). If some are released virtually certain they will be replaced by others.
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Kyiv Post @kyivpost.com · 12h
Ahead of Latvia’s Oct. 3 election, Russian-speaking residents in the eastern Latgale region say Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has reshaped their identity and deepened fears of Kremlin influence. www.kyivpost.com/post/85698
kyivpost.com
Latvia’s Russian Speakers Turn Away From Putin’s ‘Russian World’
In Latvia’s Russian-speaking east, many residents say Moscow’s war against Ukraine has strengthened their identification with Latvia.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 10h
Takeaway: “The latest assessments by Ukrainian economists are not encouraging: the Kremlin can sustain the current pace of the war for at least another two years, even if oil prices fall.”
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 10h
More on this. My sense is the Oleshky epic war crime story is starting to get some coverage in the US but still not much.
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Alina Pereverzieva 🇺🇦 @perevaa.bsky.social · 12h
Ukraine’s F-16 fleet is being hit by a maintenance crisis: more than half the jets may be grounded, while some servicing in Belgium takes up to 40 weeks, WSJ reports. In the US, the same work typically takes just 2–6 weeks.
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 12h
Russian attacks have caused an estimated $10 billion in damage to fixed assets in Ukraine this year alone, according to Kravchenko. Steel plants, warehouses, logistics hubs, and data centers have all been hit as Moscow increasingly targets infrastructure supporting the country's economy.
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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 12h
Don't believe the Europeans when they say the UK is no longer interesting, a priority etc etc Every senior EU official I've met today in Brussels has spent 20 mins talking about @andyburnham.bsky.social speech. The EU is paying attention and interested - even if it pretends otherwise
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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 12h
@andyburnham.bsky.social knows the British public is way ahead of UK politicians on Brexit and so is prepared to make the argument He doesn't know how far he'll ultimately be able to go but is opening up political space in the EU for a serious conversation
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 10h
On Russia’s (often-neglected in war games) defense of Kaliningrad problem. Also why IMO the risk wld be high RU wld use tactical nukes if it ever was stupid and reckless enough to get into a full-blown hot war w NATO (the so-called “escalate to deescalate” scenario).
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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 11h
SkyFall’s P1-SUN JetKiller interceptor destroyed a Russian jet-powered Geran-5 drone, according to the report. The interception was carried out by Lasar’s Group operators using SkyFall’s remote-control system, which enables control from anywhere in the world. #Ukraine
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 11h
More on this. Fedorov doing more good work.
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Kyiv Post @kyivpost.com · 29/09/2026
NATO has the tools to respond to Russian hybrid attacks, but its response will not always be public, symmetrical or “tit-for-tat,” Secretary General Rutte said. “You will not always see them public. They will not always be symmetric. It will not always be tit-for-tat.” www.kyivpost.com/post/85676
kyivpost.com
NATO Chief Says Response to Russian Hybrid Attacks Won’t Always Be ‘Tit-for-Tat’
The NATO chief’s statement follows his loose definition of what could trigger Article 5, amid heightened warnings that Russia might stage limited armed confrontations in Europe.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
More on this.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Yup. At least.
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Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 @pravda.ua · 29/09/2026
⚡️ Zelenskyy: Belgium agrees to transfer three F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by year-end
pravda.com.ua
Zelenskyy: Belgium agrees to transfer three F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by year-end
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced an agreement with Belgium for the accelerated transfer of three F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of the year.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Thread. I agree w @bdtaylor-su.bsky.social take, but add the obvious point that the further out you look, the more uncertainty. Risk is low, maybe very low, for (say) the next 12 months, but after maybe two years we enter “who knows” territory.
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Anton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A former Wagner fighter, now in Ukrainian captivity, said Russian mercenaries in Mali used captured Africans as live subjects for brutal "tactical medicine training." In 2023-2024, Russian instructors deliberately maimed African prisoners, after which the mercenaries practiced stopping bleeding.
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Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Under the "Africa Corps" banner, russian state mercenaries continue committing atrocities across the Sahel. Human Rights Watch documents massacres, indiscriminate airstrikes, and summary executions of civilians in Mali, including the targeting of Fulani villagers.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Good. And once again, TY Canada!
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Surprise.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Good. Wstrn companies still doing business in RU IMO deserve expropriation.
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🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 @specialkhersoncat.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
💥🛩️‼️ UPDATE: The Russian aircraft that crashed in Amur Oblast has now been identified as a Tu-95MS strategic missile carrier. Russian reports now cite the failure of three engines during takeoff as the cause. Six crew members reportedly died, while one survivor was hospitalized.
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 28/09/2026
⚡️Poland to ease rules for shooting down drones, missiles entering from Russia. Visual identification of targets by pilots would not longer be required, Poland's Deputy Defense Minister said.
kyivindependent.com
Poland to ease rules for shooting down drones, missiles entering from Russia
Visual identification of targets by pilots would not longer be required, Poland's Deputy Defense Minister said.
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
“Yields on 10-year RU government bonds (OFZs), have stood at around 14% to 16% in 2025 and 2026. That compares with an average yield of about 4.3% on 10-year bonds across the Group of Seven economies… This reflects the shallow pool of buyers for RU debt due to sanctions.”
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Jacob Öberg @profjacob.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
🚨🚨Quite a scoop: A #US based data-extraction firm accused of being secretly run from #Russia has worked on #EU-backed projects and sold its services to European #lawenforcement agencies. www.politico.eu/article/russ...
politico.eu
Russian tech surveillance company infiltrated Europe’s law enforcement agencies
The same technology used by Western police was allegedly being developed in Russia and sold to Russian security services.
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The Moscow Times @themoscowtimes.com · 28/09/2026
Opinion: The seizure of Auchan and Nestlé is an unmistakable signal that even playing by the rules won't protect foreign businesses from forced nationalization in Russia, warns Charles Hecker.
themoscowtimes.com
Moscow's Audacious Asset Grab Is a Warning to Western Companies - The Moscow Times
Opinion | Two more Western giants have fallen to the Kremlin.
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Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Temu terrorist? Tests have shown the materials found in the vans outside RAF Fairford are not "viable explosives"
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ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
1/ Russian warbloggers are angry at pictures of large numbers of Russian POWs captured near Lyman, which they see as a humiliation. They demand – almost certainly futilely – that the Russian government should be more honest about what is happening at the front. ⬇️ bsky.app/profile/ukra...
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CDL Associates @cdlassociates.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Putin increased the staff strength of the Russian Armed Forces from 2,426,130 to 2,441,630 people, including military personnel from 1,535,000 to 1,550,500 people.
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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A great illustration of the way social media has essentially shredded society’s informational immune system: The USSR spent a fortune trying to spread conspiracy theories, without success because they couldn’t crack newsrooms. Today, you can reach the globe with a post that costs $20 to make.
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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 28/09/2026
Putin signed a decree setting the authorized strength of Russia’s Armed Forces at 2,441,630 personnel, including 1,550,500 military personnel. Signed on September 28, the decree replaces the previous June 2026 force-strength order and takes effect immediately. #Russia
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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Hmmm.
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Joni Askola @joniaskola.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
European countries should impose a fine or extra tax to fund Ukraine on every Western company still operating in Russia. These companies are funding Russia’s war on Ukraine
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 28/09/2026
There has been little movement in EU circles on the question of using over 200 billion euros ($227 billion) of immobilized Russian assets since Sweden reopened the topic a month ago, but those wanting to move the matter forward are increasingly going public with their ideas.
kyivindependent.com
Unfreezing Europe's Russian assets debate
There has been little movement in EU circles on the question of using over 200 billion euros ($227 billion) of immobilized Russian assets since Sweden reopened the topic a month ago, but those wanting...
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Meduza in English @meduza.io · 28/09/2026
Russia is preparing another sharp increase in military spending: Reuters reports that the 2027 defense budget will rise to a record 17.1 trillion rubles, up 3.6 trillion — or 27% — from what Moscow had previously planned. meduza.io/en/news/2026...
meduza.io
Reuters: Russia plans record defense spending of 17 trillion rubles in 2027, 27% more than previously budgeted — Meduza
Russian authorities plan to sharply increase military spending under a new draft budget, Reuters reported, citing Russian government documents it reviewed. Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion rubles…
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Alina Pereverzieva 🇺🇦 @perevaa.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
❗ Russian jet-powered drone struck Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences in Kyiv. People are climbing out of windows to avoid being burned alive. Meanwhile, Europe is lifting sanctions on Russian oligarchs, and #Trump is asking Ukraine not to hit Russian oil refineries.
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