Reposted by Joe EgertonTim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 9hAs Joe points out, "The Conservative Party has become disastrously dependent on the votes of the over 60s." I'm sure they won't make that mistake going forward. Oh, hang on... 192
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 7hAlthough incumbents have been re-elected no new candidate from a party in government has become either Mayor or leader of the former GLC. Holborn & St Pancras may tell us if Cleverley is really in with a chance or whether Reform has enough traction to stop him jegerton.substack.com/p/the-signif...jegerton.substack.comThe significance of Holborn & St PancrasWe do not know who will win the Holborn and St Pancras byelection but the outcome has the potential to shape our politics for years to come. 010
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 10hAs the Labour Conference winds down, our eyes turn to the Holborn & St Pancras byelection. Only the Almighty knows who will win and he does not post; but we can work out the impact of possible scenarios jegerton.substack.com/p/the-signif...jegerton.substack.comThe significance of Holborn & St PancrasWe do not know who will win the Holborn and St Pancras byelection but the outcome has the potential to shape our politics for years to come. 000
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026@robertsaunders.bsky.social on the long view excellent and highly informative. Whatever your position on the electoral system very helpful history. 020
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Wilson to cabinet sec on pre publication reading Denning report “Not much in it”. Macmillan in his diary on hearing this “He meant nothing much in it for him” 020
Reposted by Joe EgertonJoe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 24/09/2026This is very good indeed. Highly informative and properly researched. Easy and clear English makes it a pleasure to read. It looks as if Russia is now ignoring the 1856 Declaration of Paris which ended privateering. (The USA has never signed the declaration; Russia did.) 2255
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 24/09/2026This is very good indeed. Highly informative and properly researched. Easy and clear English makes it a pleasure to read. It looks as if Russia is now ignoring the 1856 Declaration of Paris which ended privateering. (The USA has never signed the declaration; Russia did.) 2255
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 22/09/2026@stephenkb.bsky.social is indeed informative on LibDems. One observation: LibDems very concentrated and in constituencies they hold massively greater resources (money, members, employees) than shattered Conservatives making them very hard to dislodge 020
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Well worth the eye strain to read @timbale.bsky.social review. Although he does not say it I get the impression that he thinks Macmillan’s explanation of Chamberlain’s failure to understand Hitler- “he did not believe in original sin” - applies to Sunak’s early toleration of Braverman and Jenrick. 1201
Reposted by Joe EgertonRobert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Had one of those lovely things today where a complete stranger (in this case, an elderly lady) says something so nice that it lifts the whole day. The kindness of strangers is a wonderful thing. 419911
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Not just the RNLI at risk, countless other charities, including Jesuit Refugee Services UK. If Kemi Badenoch is tempted to say anything remotely similar she should remember Harold Macmillan: The Cons Party should not take on the Brigade of Guards or the Society of Jesus www.jrsuk.netjrsuk.netJRS UK | Jesuit Refugee Service UK 140
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 18/09/2026This is a wonderfully lucid and elegant essay. Its virtues as history greatly outweigh any vices. 010
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Excellent advice from @timbale.bsky.social . I hope the Archbishop of Canterbury will read. There is nothing on her X feed on the siege of Dover in her own diocese by men in balaclavas. 000
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 15/09/2026G K Chesterton: “It is shocking how few politicians are hanged” 000
Reposted by Joe EgertonLawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Very grateful to Ian Ralby for contributing this authoritative and rather alarming piece on the unfolding crises caused first by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and now the Houthis control over the Bab al-Mandeb (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/houthis-ho...samf.substack.comHouthis, Hormuz and the “chokepoint” threat to the global economyToday and Thursday we have two posts addressing big risks facing the global economy. 29329
Reposted by Joe EgertonCount Binface @countbinface.bsky.social · 15/09/2026I have an announcement. 762078470
Reposted by Joe EgertonThe Empty City @davidallengreen.bsky.social · 11/09/2026NEW Why holding a placard is a terrorist act, while causing disruption in a balaclava is not The mess caused by ministers and the police not taking terrorism law seriously By me at @prospectmagazine.co.uk www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/law/th... 321420628
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 13/09/2026It is really important to notice that Sue is getting information online and acknowledges that she is not relying on official stats or mainstream media. The reduction in numbers of small boats has no effect on people who rely on far right online propaganda as they are not told about it. 1264
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Not just Badenoch but the whole front bench. Can you imagine what Hailsham (Hogg) and Macleod would have done to Wilson? Whitelaw, Pym and Heseltine to Callaghan? Hague Pickles and May to Gordon Brown if the organisers of obvious criminality were not on remand in Brixton’s salubrious cells? 085
Reposted by Joe EgertonJohn Oxley @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk · 07/09/2026I wrote for @theipaper.com about the Reform crowd's violence, the obvious rejection of norms, and how it may dent the normalisation of the party inews.co.uk/opinion/the-...inews.co.ukThe image that will haunt FarageReform UK conference attendees attacking protesters could be a defining moment for the party 68226
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 07/09/2026This is an interesting article on Trade Union-Church (RC) relations in the USA. www.ncronline.org/opinion/ncr-... Can we read anything at all across to scope for recovery under Andy Burnham of Labour's once solid Catholic vote in say West Scotland? Or gaining traction in London?ncronline.orgHappy (Catholic!) Labor Day"I do not see how the country can dig itself out of the many holes it is in without a strong labor movement," writes NCR's Michael Sean Winters. 000
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 05/09/2026@joxley.jmoxley.co.uk makes the key point. Reform at the fourth party in the state is very different from Reform as the second party. Their base is not big enough to deliver that and the Conservatives need to see off Reform. 0163
Reposted by Joe EgertonTim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 04/09/2026The last few words of this gobbet seem particularly apposite in the wake of @channel4news.bsky.social's mega-scoop. 😆 (PS If you want to read the whole thing, it's here: doi.org/10.1080/0140...) 0169
Reposted by Joe EgertonTim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 03/09/2026In my excitement, forgot the link. Doh! Anyway, here it is: doi.org/10.1080/0140... (free to read) 094
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Even Homer nods. The objection to Orr is that he is a heretic and schismatic. Aquinas had useful ideas about war. The Philosopher Pope Leo XIII gave us Rerum Novarum. The Philosopher Pope JP II rightly warned against the Iraq war and helped bring the Cold War to an end without a shot being fired. 100
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Following the debacle in Greater Manchester the Conservatives cannot afford to be humiliated in Holborn & St Pancras - which they would be if they did worse than Reform or - catastrophe - worse that a bin. CCHQ needs to get its act together pronto jegerton.substack.com/p/cchq-needs...jegerton.substack.comCCHQ needs to fight Holborn & St PancrasThere are real benefits for CCHQ in fighting Holborn & St Pancras as if it were a marginal and potentially catastrophic consequences of being beaten by Reform - or by a bin 010
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 01/09/2026While incumbent mayors from a party in power in Westminster have been reelected no governing party candidate has ever been elected mayor or GLC leader for the first time. If Khan stands down Cleverly must have a chance. QMUL work shows it quite a challenge though. 011
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 30/08/2026To add to @samfr.bsky.social arguments here, this link goes to a piece which explicitly does not attack the idea of net zero suggests that UK has made serious policy errors in implementation. www.linkedin.com/pulse/indust...linkedin.comIndustry pays the priceMy brother (Mike McWilliams) and I (mainly him) have written a report for the thinktank Civitas investigating how much extra UK manufacturing companies have to pay for their energy. It has been reason... 000
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 29/08/2026We may not know the details of what the lobbyists pushed for but they are almost all retained by large firms so will have had a clear focus on which changes of policy would boost the CEO's bonus and help pay for his third yacht. Emasculation of the Financial Ombudsman Service is a case in point. 120
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 28/08/2026I wonder whether the poor image is at this stage more serious than organisational weakness - you can't fatten a pig on market day and time is already running out to fix the organisation. to form a govt the Conservatives need to win in Somerset jegerton.substack.com/p/somerset-i...jegerton.substack.comSomerset: is the Conservative organisation fit for purpose?A detailed analysis of the condition of the Conservative Associations in the Liberal Democrat held constituencies in Somerset and the implications for the Conservatives’ prospects in 2029 010
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 28/08/2026jegerton.substack.com/p/somerset-i...jegerton.substack.comSomerset: is the Conservative organisation fit for purpose?A detailed analysis of the condition of the Conservative Associations in the Liberal Democrat held constituencies in Somerset and the implications for the Conservatives’ prospects in 2029 000
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 28/08/2026This is an astonishing result for the LibDems. In May they were bottom of the poll, with top candidate only 5.1%. They have established themselves as best placed to defeat Reform - look at fall in not just Green but also Cons share of vote when Reform is down. 2027 will be interesting 1111
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 28/08/2026A ward where Reform were going to beat Conservatives (previous incumbent) but Green won. As elsewhere in Kent LibDems appear to have stood down to help Green A large number of Lab voters backed the Greens. This looks like tactical voting to keep Reform out. 040
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 28/08/2026This looks like Labour receiving votes from Green tactically as best placed to beat Reform but interestingly also from Conservatives - as in nearby Makersfield - suggesting many (most?) remaining Conservative supporters do not want Farage at any price. 010
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 27/08/2026For stupidity Iran matches the Athenian attack on Syracuse in 415BC. But according to Thucydides II 65 Athens only finally gave in in 404 thanks to internal dissent. Has Trump so damaged the American constitution that the military effect of disaster with Iran will lead to complete eclipse of USA? 000
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Following on @samfr.bsky.social "The War against empathy" my latest endorses his concluding assessment and argues that the Bishops urgently need to deal with this attack on Christianity in Britain jegerton.substack.com/p/bishops-ne... 000
Reposted by Joe EgertonSam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Worth remembering that Mladic was only able to accomplish his acts of astonishing evil because European countries and the US sat by and watched. With the British govt the most determined of all to avoid decisive action. 20492105
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 24/08/2026ConsHome has named 9 Cons Associations selecting candidates in September. If Lab vote is same after Reaper's cull of right block Cons get all 9 if they get back 50% of 2024 Reform vote, 5 with 20% and only 2 (already Con) if Reform adds 10%. Very artificial modelling but shows impact of Reform. 000
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 21/08/2026Those worried about what Prime Minister Farage might do should read this by @timbale.bsky.social dismiss the idea that codifying the constitution is a viable safeguard and set about ensuring the defeat of Reform in the ballot box 032
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 18/08/2026This poll presents causes a headache for MPs if they are asked to vote to suspend Farage following a Standards Committee Report - as I explain he will probably get back jegerton.substack.com/p/clacton-an...jegerton.substack.comClacton - an impending Conservative disasterWhy a second Clacton byelection endangers the Conservative Party and what could be done to avoid a humiliation 010
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 18/08/2026Clacton - what next? A detailed analysis of the hole into which Kemi Badenoch's pledge to run a candidate in a 2nd byelection has dropped the Tories jegerton.substack.com/p/clacton-an...jegerton.substack.comClacton - an impending Conservative disasterWhy a second Clacton byelection endangers the Conservative Party and what could be done to avoid a humiliation 120
Reposted by Joe EgertonCount Binface @countbinface.bsky.social · 16/08/2026A brief note for Nadhim Zahawi. 33687332863
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 17/08/2026A fascinating analysis with properly argued conclusions based on evidence. Inevitably @samfr.bsky.social cannot cover everything so can and should in places be challenged. A really good starting point for understanding those closely related but separate phenomena of Thatcher and Thatcherism. 1133
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 13/08/2026@robertsaunders.bsky.social is prudent to write “probably”. A little Aquinas would discourage excessive certainty. Playing at being God by claiming certain knowledge of the future is a dangerous game as the Holy One is not to be mocked. 000
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 07/08/2026This position was condemned by Vatican II in Nostra Aetate. The Church of England should endorse the Roman Catholic teaching and proclaim it. 020
Reposted by Joe Egertonsianushka.bsky.social @sianushka.bsky.social · 07/08/2026Want to know more about Posh George’s Reform connections in his early years? Or why so many Reform types have their businesses registered in a shabby office in Tivat, Montenegro? You read it here first! My July story for @opendemocracy.net www.opendemocracy.net/inside-refor...opendemocracy.netInside Reform and George Cottrell’s world in MontenegroWhy are some of Britain’s most controversial Reform-linked figures all operating out of a grubby office in a town of 11,000 people in the Balkans? 06725
Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 06/08/2026A dangerous precedent. An election address that is attractive and omits the usual litany of half truths 070
