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Lawrence Freedman

@ldfreedman.bsky.social
57K followers 121 following 695 posts

Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London. Latest Book Strategists and Strategy: collected essays, 2014-2024. Substack Comment is Freed samf.substack.com

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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 8h
Would like to add a personal note to this. The ESRC showed remarkable vision in funding this but @anandmenon.bsky.social brought the energy it needed to be the success it is. It was a model for the kind of academic I had always wanted to be but which really had no place in the existing structures
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 10h
New post: The Tory conference represented a clear change in strategy. But so far the shift has been largely superficial and rhetorical. There are three big problems with making the strategy work - and it is not at all clear they're resolvable. samf.substack.com/p/the-three-...
samf.substack.com
The three big problems with the Tories’ new strategy
The Tories have finally noticed their only route back to power goes through the prosperous seats in the home counties and city suburbs lost to the Liberal Democrats and Labour.
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gabrielmares.bsky.social @gabrielmares.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
I have an r&r book manuscript that writes something of an intellectual history of civil war and sovereignty in Sudan, if you are interested
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Harry Swinhoe @harryswinhoe.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
#POLI2049 A good overview of the civil war in Sudan and potential paths forward. Relevant for our discussion of Civil Wars later in the module.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
New post: Burnham has opened the door to a "rejoin" manifesto pledge. The politics make more sense than a lot of people seem to realise. I look at what it would involve at every step from pledge to referendum. There are significant barriers but it can be done. samf.substack.com/p/the-route-...
samf.substack.com
The route back into the EU
Back in 2022 I wrote about the long-term prospects for undoing Brexit and made two predictions.
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4u1e.bsky.social @4u1e.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
As always, very worthwhile reading the post which gives a rational view of what Ukraine has been up to, based on currently available information.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
While Russia is struggling to meet its battlefield objectives it is hoping to win by making life intolerable for ordinary Ukrainians. The winter months will therefore be crucial. This will be a severe test of Ukrainian civilian and military resilience.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
In this post I return again to Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi and what it can tell us about current tactics and technologies, and in particular the importance of information security and deception. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/operation-...?
samf.substack.com
Operation Vivaldi: the four seasons
Surprise, deception, and operation security - lessons from Ukrainian success
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
New post: Burnham has shown this week that he is doing the job of PM in a way Starmer could not. But a sense of purpose only goes so far. What does the radical rhetoric really mean? What are the next steps? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/a-journey-...
samf.substack.com
A journey without a map
Burnham has given Labour a sense of purpose, but what does it really mean?
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Latest post considers the ‘forgotten war’ of Sudan. I consider the state of the fighting, the humanitarian crisis, and the logic of partition. This is another example of the difficulty of extracting a good peace from a bad war. (This one is free). samf.substack.com/p/the-sudan-...?
samf.substack.com
The Sudan War: is there any way out?
Since April 2023 Sudan has been consumed by a vicious war that gets far too little attention in the West.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
If a 'Blue Wave' comes in the midterms, leaving Dems in control of both House and Senate, how will they use their new power and how with Trump react? In his new post @samfr considers the possibilities. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/what-happe...
samf.substack.com
What happens if the Democrats sweep the midterms?
Back in March, when I first looked at the midterms, the Democrats were already favourites to win the House.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
New post: Midterms polling is getting dramatically worse for Trump. So what happens if he loses the House and Senate? What could the Democrats do with the powers they'd gain? What impact would it have on global politics? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/what-happe...
samf.substack.com
What happens if the Democrats sweep the midterms?
Back in March, when I first looked at the midterms, the Democrats were already favourites to win the House.
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Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is very good indeed. Highly informative and properly researched. Easy and clear English makes it a pleasure to read. It looks as if Russia is now ignoring the 1856 Declaration of Paris which ended privateering. (The USA has never signed the declaration; Russia did.)
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Russia is stepping up its campaign to weaken Europe and undermine its support for Ukraine. @hannanotte.bsky.social provides an informed and lucid assessment of what Putin is put to, how far he might go, and how European countries should respond. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/putins-cam...?
samf.substack.com
Putin’s campaign against Europe
How far will he go?
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Hanna Notte @hannanotte.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
@ldfreedman.bsky.social invited me to reflect on Russia’s escalating measures against Europe - and where we might be headed. The essay builds on my book We Shall Outlast Them, which is out now in the UK and Europe
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
There is an offer at the end of the post for Dr Notte’s excellent and deeply researched book, ‘We Shall Outlast Them: Putin's Global Campaign to Defeat the West.’
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Russia is stepping up its campaign to weaken Europe and undermine its support for Ukraine. @hannanotte.bsky.social provides an informed and lucid assessment of what Putin is put to, how far he might go, and how European countries should respond. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/putins-cam...?
samf.substack.com
Putin’s campaign against Europe
How far will he go?
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
We’re almost twins
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Very good @foreignaffairs.com podcast interview by Dan Kurtz-Phelan with @ldfreedman.bsky.social, on the changing nature of military conflict, with plenty of examples from Ukraine and the Persian Gulf. www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/how...
foreignaffairs.com
How to Understand the New Age of War
A Conversation With Lawrence D. Freedman
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Iain Mansfield @igmansfield.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Great piece by @samfr.bsky.social on England's school success story. samf.substack.com/p/why-englan...
samf.substack.com
Why England’s schools are doing so well
And what we need to focus on next
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
New post out: England's schools are now the second highest performing in the world outside the far east, according to the OECD's PISA study. Is this because of policy? Attitude to technology? Cultural factors like immigration? And where can we still improve? samf.substack.com/p/why-englan...
samf.substack.com
Why England’s schools are doing so well
And what we need to focus on next
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Ukrainians forces have recently announced a successful counterattack in the Lyman area. Operation Vivaldi weakens Russia’s ability to take Donetsk In this post I ask if this is a turning point and what it tells us about this stage of the land war. samf.substack.com/p/operation-...?
samf.substack.com
Operation Vivaldi and the Battle for Donetsk
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has three distinctive components.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Ukrainians forces have recently announced a successful counterattack in the Lyman area. Operation Vivaldi weakens Russia’s ability to take Donetsk In this post I ask if this is a turning point and what it tells us about this stage of the land war. samf.substack.com/p/operation-...?
samf.substack.com
Operation Vivaldi and the Battle for Donetsk
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has three distinctive components.
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Tony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Really recommend the @foreignaffairs.com interview with @ldfreedman.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/h...
podcasts.apple.com
How to Understand the New Age of War: A Conversation With Lawrence D. Freedman
Podcast Episode · The Foreign Affairs Interview · September 17 · 1h 1m
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aspirationalbob.bsky.social @aspirationalbob.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Well researched, doom laden prgnostications from the Freedmans?
static.klipy.com
You're Joking, Not Another One!
ALT: You're Joking, Not Another One!
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
New post: A global bond market sell-off is causing serious problems for govts + there is growing nervousness about debt levels. I talked to the brilliant @robinwigglesworth.ft.com to ask how worried we should be and what can be done about it. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/how-much-d...
samf.substack.com
How much debt is too much?
It’s looming global economic risks week at Comment is Freed.
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Gerard @groverxv.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I urge you to read this. We are facing a grim global winter.
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Fionna O’Leary @fascinatorfun.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
“Maritime commerce is responsible for moving roughly 90% of world trade by volume. Almost everything we buy, use, eat, and need travels by boat. Almost 100% of our communication, be it telephonic or internet, goes through the network of submarine cables sitting on the ocean floor.“
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Very grateful to Ian Ralby for contributing this authoritative and rather alarming piece on the unfolding crises caused first by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and now the Houthis control over the Bab al-Mandeb (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/houthis-ho...
samf.substack.com
Houthis, Hormuz and the “chokepoint” threat to the global economy
Today and Thursday we have two posts addressing big risks facing the global economy.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Very grateful to Ian Ralby for contributing this authoritative and rather alarming piece on the unfolding crises caused first by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and now the Houthis control over the Bab al-Mandeb (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/houthis-ho...
samf.substack.com
Houthis, Hormuz and the “chokepoint” threat to the global economy
Today and Thursday we have two posts addressing big risks facing the global economy.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
New post: Young people are increasingly unhappy. It's a real phenomenon + nothing to do with "snowflakes". There are lots of standard culprits - social media, school, economy - but none can explain the long-term trend. So what is going on? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-agency...
samf.substack.com
The Agency Gap
Why are young people increasingly unhappy?
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
In Comment is Freed today @samfr.bsky.social interviews Dame Emily Lawson about the success of the Covid vaccine rollout. Part of our effort to find examples of UK government working well and what might be learned from them. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/when-gover...?
samf.substack.com
When government works
The story of the vaccine rollout
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I have also been called pleasant in doctors letters. I am of course but how do they know? And what do they really mean?
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
My latest post examines the buildup to the Witkoff/Kushner visits to Moscow and Kyiv. There is no evidence of progress and won’t be until Putin is no longer sure that his troops are on the verge of victory. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/can-putin-...?
samf.substack.com
Can Putin be persuaded he is not winning?
Towards a “hurting stalemate”
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Latest post from Sam asks whether the divisions on the right mean that they can not win power. samf.substack.com/p/will-the-r...?
samf.substack.com
Will the right stay split?
Sometimes the most important political shifts are the ones that didn’t happen.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
New post out: The split between the Tories and Reform is disastrous for the right. I look at the liklihood of possible resolutions: a pact, either party gaining dominance, a leadership change or the right-wing press picking a horse. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/will-the-r...
samf.substack.com
Will the right stay split?
Sometimes the most important political shifts are the ones that didn’t happen.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
A little 36-hour Bluesky exclusive back-to-school offer on the substack.... 25% off for your first year. (Please feel free to share the link with friends not on here. Can also be used to buy gift subs for kids starting politics A-level / degrees....) samf.substack.com/specialoffer
samf.substack.com
Subscribe to Comment is Freed
Politics, policy analysis, and foreign affairs from Sam and Lawrence Freedman. Click to read Comment is Freed, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I’ve been doing this for well over two decades. It is a great slot and I’ve really enjoyed doing it. But time for a fresh approach and there is nobody better than Kori to provide it.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Sam muscling into my patch. I may have to start writing about council elections in response.
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Declan Gaffney @greyskiesthinking.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Great to see Albert O. Hirschman's analysis of policy rhetoric being applied so well.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
New post: With climate change now visible all around us opponents of action are changing tack. Dismantling their new attacks helps identify a hidden structure in political argument that is often used to try and kill popular + necessary policies. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/how-to-kil...
samf.substack.com
How to kill a popular policy
Opposing action to tackle climate change is getting tricker.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
What makes the Iran War especially stupid? In this post I show how it meets key criteria for stupid wars: it went ahead despite likelihood of a bad outcome and decisions on its conduct made situation worse. Comparison are made with Iraq and Suez. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/good-wars-...?
samf.substack.com
Good Wars, Bad Wars, and Stupid Wars
Could the war in Iran do even more damage to the US than Iraq?
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
What makes the Iran War especially stupid? In this post I show how it meets key criteria for stupid wars: it went ahead despite likelihood of a bad outcome and decisions on its conduct made situation worse. Comparison are made with Iraq and Suez. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/good-wars-...?
samf.substack.com
Good Wars, Bad Wars, and Stupid Wars
Could the war in Iran do even more damage to the US than Iraq?
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Today’s must-read, IMHO.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
New post out: Much of the right - led by Elon Musk - has decided the world's problems are caused by "suicidal empathy". I look at where this phrase comes from, why it's a profoundly wrong misdiagnosis, and a misunderstanding of what empathy is. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-war-ag...
samf.substack.com
The war against empathy
Last week Reform’s treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick set out proposals to cut welfare spending on working age adults in half.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
New post out answering questions from subscribers covering lots on Russia and Ukraine, UK military spending: pressure on Israel and its coming elections; the deadlock between US and Iran; and historical figures to challenge at croquet. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/will-russi...?
samf.substack.com
Will Russia change course without a "cliff-edge" crisis? Will Netanyahu lose the Israeli election? How should we spend our defence budget?
Answering your questions
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Here are @samfr.bsky.social’s answers to the many questions we received, dealing with possibility of early election, whether Reform has peaked and can it be replaced by Restore, US elections and much more. My answers at weekend (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/should-bur...
samf.substack.com
Should Burnham call an early election? Have we passed peak Reform? Could Restore become an electorally viable party?
Answering your questions
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James Downie @jamescdownie.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
"The only virtue [sanctioning Iran] has for Trump is that because it is a continuation of the status quo, it is the laziest and easiest approach." – @dandrezner.bsky.social
danieldrezner.substack.com
Donald Trump Gives Up on American Foreign Policy
His administration cannot win in Iran and he is not even trying anywhere else.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Also provide link to another AI project in which involved - Reimagining the AI Arms Race, a new anthology from the AI & Geopolitics Project (AIxGEO) led by Verity Harding. The full anthology here www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/publications..., includes my piece on origins of the arms race metaphor.
bennettschool.cam.ac.uk
Reimagining the AI Arms Race - Bennett School of Public Policy
This essay anthology brings together visionary thinkers, policymakers, and experts to challenge the narrative of AI as a zero-sum competition.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
It comes from Geopolitics of AI: Power, Conflict, and the Future of Global Order edited by Hal Brands for Johns Hopkins University Press> full book available on Project MUSE, muse.jhu.edu/book/.
muse.jhu.edu
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