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Aron Lund

@aronlund.bsky.social
6.2K followers 412 following 3.1K posts

Syria, Middle East politics, and Mediterranean security at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI). Associate fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI). Occasional freelance writer.

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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 12h
“Qatar-based conglomerate UCC purchases the gasoline, and Syria manages transportation and receives transit fees. The shipments are then transported by land to Iraq from the northwestern port through al-Tanf in southeastern Syria.” Ghaith Alsayed, @apnews.com: apnews.com/article/syri...
apnews.com
Iraq begins importing gasoline via Syrian port to bypass the closed Strait of Hormuz
Iraqi fuel trucks are loading gasoline at a Syrian port to meet surging global energy demand as the critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed and mediators work with Iran and the United States to end t...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 12h
UAE Vice President Mansour bin Zayed visited Riyadh, met both Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ​and Defense Minister Khaled bin Salman. First visit by a high-ranking Emirati official to Saudi Arabia since relations soured over Yemen, Sudan, etc. @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
UAE vice president visits Saudi Arabia in first visit since rift
UAE Vice President Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited Saudi Arabia on Tuesday and met with the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed ​bin Salman and the kingdom's defence minister, the first visit by ‌a...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The United States will be re-leaving Iraq on Wednesday. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
US forces exit Iraq after two decades, leaving opening for Iran
The departure is celebrated as a victory by Iran and its allies ​who now have deep influence in the country where 4,500 Americans died during more than two decades of war.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
After Iranian Pres. Pezeshkian expressed interest in rekindling the relationship with Damascus, the Syrian Foreign Ministry says it is up to Iran to “respect Syria’s sovereignty and the will of its people, review its past policy, and build trust.” sana.sy/politics/259...
sana.sy
الخارجية: موقف سوريا من إيران نتاج 14 عاماً من الحرب والقتل ولا يقبل التجاهل
أكد مستشار الشؤون الأفرو-آسيوية في وزارة الخارجية والمغتربين محمد الجفال أن الموقف السوري تجاه السياسة الإيرانية لم يكن موقفاً سياسياً عابراً، بل نتج عن تجربة أربعة عشر عاماً من الحرب والقتل والتهجير ...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
UAE gave up, announced meeting www.wam.ae/a/3coqvthq
wam.ae
WAM
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The General Secretariat doesn’t normally do this kind of thing, I think? Maybe it’s fronting for the president himself, who doesn’t want to be seen to be a bearer of bad news.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Syria’s General Secretariat of the Presidency imposes immediate governmental cost-reduction measures, ordering ministries and public agencies to deprioritize non-urgent projects, spend less money, and use less fuel. Probably not a great sign. alikhbariah.com?p=87294
alikhbariah.com
الأمانة العامة لرئاسة الجمهورية تصدر تعميماً لترشيد الإنفاق العام
تتجه الجهات العامة إلى إعادة ترتيب أولويات الإنفاق وضبط النفقات غير الأساسية، بموجب بلاغ حكومي أصدرته الأمانة العامة لرئاسة الجمهورية، ألزم الوزارات والجهات العامة ذات الطابعين الإداري والاقتصادي باتخ...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
“Nearly two years after the fall of the regime, Syrians’ patience is running thin as prices continue to climb.” From Sep. 17, @natachadanon.bsky.social & @syriadirect.bsky.social on how rising fuel prices stir up discontent in the Sharaa government’s heartland: syriadirect.org/fuel-anger-e...
syriadirect.org
Fuel anger erupts in the government’s Idlib heartland
Fuel price hikes have sparked widespread protests across Syria, with anger reaching Idlib’s Maarat al-Numan, where residents say rising costs threaten livelihoods, reconstruction and the country’s agr...
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Reposted by Aron Lund
Alexander McKeever @akmckeever.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Tracking appointments to local Hasakah positions, mapped by subdistrict akmckeever.substack.com/p/the-develo...
akmckeever.substack.com
The developing al-Hasakah goverment
Provincial and sub-provincial appointments
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
How Israel’s regional neighbors see its upcoming elections – @afp.com. www.arabnews.com/middle-east/...
arabnews.com
How Israel’s regional neighbors see its upcoming elections
How Israel’s regional neighbors see its upcoming elections
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Very secret, shh
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Iraqi Kurdistan PM Masrour Barzani isn’t happy about the US leaving mid-war: “The threat is real—we are vulnerable, we are being attacked. […] Now, to be left alone without any, let’s say, appropriate defensive system, it’s shameful.” Mehul Srivastava, @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/c478...
ft.com
US withdrawal from Iraq ‘shameful’, Kurdish leader says
Iraqi Kurdistan’s prime minister tells FT that departure of American troops leaves them vulnerable to Iranian attack
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Self-serving version of history, but also puts the finger on Moscow’s frustrating experience in the Middle East: it’s always either being treated as Budget America by those who can’t get the real deal, or used for leverage to improve terms with Washington. www.rudaw.net/english/cate...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Den nya Mekkaalliansen samlar tre av Syd- och Västasiens starkaste militärmakter, med 1,4 miljoner man under vapen, enorma oljeresurser, egen försvarsindustri – och kärnvapen. Men räcker det för att skapa en fungerande allians? Läs min senaste UNT-spalt! www.unt.se/ledare/kroni...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Macron says France has agreed with Saudi Arabia to dispatch French “soldiers, radars, defensive systems” to protect the Yanbu oil terminal on the Saudi Red Sea coast, which was recently hit by Iran-allied groups. www.tf1info.fr/politique/cr...
tf1info.fr
Crise des carburants : Macron mobilise des "moyens militaires" pour "protéger" un site clé en Arabie saoudite | TF1 Info
[VIDÉO] Emmanuel Macron a annoncé, jeudi 24 septembre, l'envoi de "moyens militaires" pour "protéger" le site stratégique de Yanbu, en Arabie saoudite. Le chef de l'État a dit vouloir "protéger" ce ma...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I mean, maybe they do, but WSJ’s framing just isn’t backed up by the evidence provided in the article.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
On Chinese support for Iran’s drone and missile programs. It’s clear that Iran sources a lot of stuff from Chinese companies, but, as before, the evidence of a deliberate Chinese state effort to arm Iran or help it kill US troops feels underwhelming. @WSJ.com: www.wsj.com/politics/chi...
wsj.com
Iran Has a Secret Weapon in Its War With America: Help From China
Trump wants to preserve relations with Xi, but Iranian customs data show Chinese entities have made thousands of shipments of components used in drones and missiles.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Iraq and Turkey agree to a gradual handover of Turkey’s Bashiqa base to the Baghdad government, which, in turn, promises to ensure that PKK-aligned factions cannot operate out of Sinjar. www.alsumaria.tv/news/politic...
alsumaria.tv
اتفاق عراقي تركي يخص سنجار ومعسكر بعشيقة زليكان
اتفق رئيس الوزراء العراقي علي الزيدي، والرئيس التركي رجب طيب أردوغان، الأربعاء، على بسط سلطة الدولة العراقية في قضاء سنجار، فيما ستسلّم القوات التركية معسكر بعشيقة - زليكان إلى الحكومة العراقية.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Refai is Syria’s top religious official, chief representative of traditionalist Sunni Islam, and surely the country’s most influential political/social leader outside Sharaa’s Salafi circuit—and he seems to be on the defensive. Maybe this tells us something about current power relations?
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Osama Refai continues to defend himself against what he calls a “very severe campaign,” saying he only used the word “Wahhabi” because its how Indonesians refer to Salafism. Stresses past Salafi-Sufi clerical ties, claims the ex-regime is working to stir up trouble. www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Yxi...
youtube.com
🔴 حديث سماحة المفتي العام الشيخ أسامة الرفاعي | وحدة الصف واحترام التنوع العلمي والدعوي في سورية
YouTube video by جامع الشيخ عبد الكريم الرفاعي
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The downside with trying to wage economic warfare against Iran is that they tend to respond with non-economic warfare. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Iran threatens to paralyse airports in neighbouring countries if they stop Iranian flights
If neighbouring countries cooperate with ​the United States ‌by stopping Iranian flights, Iran will ensure ​their airports cannot ​function, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary ⁠of Iran's Supreme ​National Secur...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
A senior Houthi official tells @apnews.com’s Samy Magdy increased support from Iran enabled their offensive along the eastern shore of Bab al-Mandab. apnews.com/article/yeme...
apnews.com
Iranian advisers played a key role in the stunning advance by Yemen’s Houthis, sources tell AP
The lightning advance of Yemen's Houthi rebels down the Red Sea coast was aided by Iranian advisers on the front lines.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Podcast version: www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/ira...
foreignaffairs.com
The Iran Shock Is Not Over
A Conversation With Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Trump says he wants to stop U.S. diesel export, which “would hit developing countries hard and send shockwaves across Europe”. Jamie Smyth & Myles McCormick @financialtimes.com: www.ft.com/content/22d1...
ft.com
Donald Trump says he would back US diesel export ban
Support for suspending foreign sales comes as conflicts in Middle East and Ukraine send price of vital fuel soaring
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Iran, US hint at revival of talks – @phreuters.bsky.social & Samia Nakhoul, @reuters.com. www.reuters.com/world/middle...
reuters.com
Iran, US hint at revival of talks as Trump, Pezeshkian due to attend UN
Iran and the United States hinted on Tuesday at the prospect of reviving negotiations to end their conflict, with ​the presidents of both countries due at the UN General Assembly in New York.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Saudi oil tube revived. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Saudi Arabia restarts East-West oil pipeline, sources say
Drone attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut the pipeline on September 13.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Intressant av Fredrik Meiton och Lisa Boström om hur Röda havets stökiga säkerhetspolitik påverkar Europa. www.dn.se/debatt/roda-... (Ompostat med rätt författare!)
dn.se
DN Debatt. ”Röda havet är så mycket mer än bara pirater”
DN Debatt. Två experter om en nyckelregion som hamnat i skymundan – Röda havet är inte längre bara pirater utan en nyckelregion för Sverige och Norden.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Very good @foreignaffairs.com podcast interview by Dan Kurtz-Phelan with @ldfreedman.bsky.social, on the changing nature of military conflict, with plenty of examples from Ukraine and the Persian Gulf. www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/how...
foreignaffairs.com
How to Understand the New Age of War
A Conversation With Lawrence D. Freedman
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
"Iran must 'end its arming of and support' for the Houthis in Yemen, the foreign ministers of G7 nations have said in a joint statement." If the Iranians won't comply, this could escalate out of control—potentially even to an EU expression of grave concern. www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Iran must stop arming Houthis in Yemen, G7 says ahead of UN General Assembly
The G7 also condemns "in the strongest terms" Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, saying that the escalation in fighting in Yemen jeopardises global energy security.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
UNIFIL tells The National’s Nada Homsi there is now a total of 28 Israeli military positions inside Lebanon. @thenationalnews.com: www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...
thenationalnews.com
Unifil counts eight fortified bases among 30 Israeli military positions in south Lebanon | The National
Israel's forces entrenching their presence even as US-brokered talks seek their withdrawal from Lebanese territory
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Syria’s new leaders have successfully navigated daunting political risks, but their haphazard economic policymaking may end up wrecking the post-Assad transition, warns @abujamajem.com in @foreignaffairs.com. www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/syrias...
foreignaffairs.com
Syria’s Imperiled Transition
How shock therapy threatens the post-Assad peace.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Houthi/Ansarallah political bureau member Mohammed al-Bukheiti: "We confirmed that we are not targeting the United States, or any other nation, in the strait, with the sole exception of the Saudi enemy" Samy Magdy, @apnews.com: apnews.com/article/yeme...
apnews.com
Iran-backed Houthi rebels warn against joining Saudi Arabia in Yemen's growing civil war
A senior official with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels is warning countries against joining Saudi Arabia in Yemen’s revived civil war, telling The Associated Press that his group has assured the Trump a...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
⛵️> 🚚 > 🛩️
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Very informative @financialtimes.com article on the otherwise under-reported strangling of non-oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, by Nicolas Parasie, @alicemhancock.bsky.social, and Andrew England. www.ft.com/content/c9d1...
ft.com
The Gulf cargo trade that vanished
The Strait of Hormuz was a transit hub for goods from helium to corn. Businesses have battled to find alternative routes
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
An @enabbaladi.bsky.social writeup of the Refai affair includes a comment from Abdullah al-Moheisini who is shocked and saddened to hear that someone would make a link between Salafism and extremism. www.enabbaladi.net/826011/
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
UAE’s Anwar Gargash calls for direct Arab-Iranian security dialogue. Sensible idea, for all its limitations. @almonitor.bsky.social: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
🥲
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
In the space of four days, Trump has given orders to not strike Yemen, to strike Yemen, and then to not strike Yemen again. The last call came as “troops were loading bombs onto U.S. warplanes selected for the missions and the wave of attacks was just about to begin”. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Gets Caught in a Dilemma Over a Saudi Plea for Military Help
The president vacillated but decided on Sunday not to join Saudi Arabia, for now, in joint strikes against the Houthis in Yemen. But he also needs the kingdom’s cooperation in his war against Iran.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Leaked comments by Syrian Grand Mufti Osama al-Refai about HTS and what he refers to as its “Wahhabi” and “Takfiri” past has angered some Syrian Salafis, prompting Refai to issue a statement to clarify that he was talking about the pre-2024 period. www.syria.tv/%D8%A8%D8%B9... 1/2
syria.tv
بعد جدل حول تصريحات سابقة.. الشيخ الرفاعي يرد: السلفية جزء أصيل من سوريا
أصدر مفتي الجمهورية العربية السورية، الشيخ أسامة عبد الكريم الرفاعي، اليوم الإثنين، بياناً توضيحياً رداً على ما تداولته صفحات التواصل الاجتماعي بشأن تصريحات ساب
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
A thought on this: The notion that Israeli and Saudi interests on Iran and the Houthis “overlap entirely” seems fundamentally wrong. Saudi Arabia loathes Iran’s regime and the Houthis, but Iran & Yemen are still its neighbors. Riyadh will always have the long term in mind 1/4
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Saudi Arabia's problems with Iran and the Houthis create opportunities for Israel to offer quiet support and rekindle the relationship, argues Lazar Berman in @timesofisrael.com. www.timesofisrael.com/as-iran-and-...
timesofisrael.com
As Iran and Houthis tighten the screws on Saudi Arabia, a potential role emerges for Israel
Saudi leader's old and new military alliances are offering little protection, and his previous engagement with Tehran didn't help either; blocked in Hormuz and Red Sea, Riyadh needs new security partn...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
By the looks of it, many causes blend together, then and now. They certainly include politics, but also rival factions and smugglers, clan feuds, Israel-Hezbollah intrigue, and IS remnants. Most of all: weak governance, poverty, and an abundance of unemployed young men and military surplus.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Pre-2024, pervasive low-level violence in Houran used to be held up as evidence of a reviving anti-Assad rebellion by activists & analysts so inclined. I was skeptical then, and I note in support of my past skepticism that regime change made no apparent difference. www.enabbaladi.net/825891/%d9%8...
enabbaladi.net
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Regardless of whether they should co-exist peacefully in two states, most Israelis and Palestinians don't think they could. @pewresearch.org poll: www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/...
pewresearch.org
Many Israelis and Palestinians Say They Cannot Coexist Peacefully – and Explain Why
Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem reflect on the viability of a two-state solution
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The Saudi-Houthi conflict only seems to draw attention because of its implications for Iran and the United States, but it is a disaster for so many Yemenis. @apnews.com’s Fatma Khaled on the tens of thousands now fleeing the Houthi offensive: apnews.com/article/yeme...
apnews.com
Tens of thousands flee as Iran-backed rebels draw Yemen into the wider war
The lightning advance of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels has forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes in Yemen. Many are struggling to find food and shelter.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
“Iran warned on Sunday against any big new attack by the United States and its allies, saying it had information such ‌a move was being prepared” Jana Choukeir, @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
reuters.com
Iran warns against new escalation by US and allies
Iran said it had information such a move was being prepared, adding ‌to the anxiety in a region already on edge after drone and missile strikes on Saudi Arabia.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
“Anything could happen with me.” [Camera zooms in on forehead, inner monologue voiceover: ‘He he, you’re a master negotiator, Homer’]
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
No more longterm blockade, back to the escalatory crazy talk. Clear sign Trump wants a deal quickly: “I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not? It’s a big decision. Anything could happen with me.” @barakravid.bsky.social: www.axios.com/2026/09/17/t...
axios.com
Trump tells Axios he's approaching major crossroads in Iran war
The U.S. has settled into a familiar pattern in the war that some officials say is not sustainable.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Every gushing cloud of foul black smoke from a burning oil tanker adrift in the Gulf of Oman has a silver lining “Countries are embracing clean power and taking steps to use less energy because of the war against Iran.” Jennifer McDermott, @apnews.com: apnews.com/article/iran...
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
”A Saudi source quoted by Israel’s Kan said that even if Jerusalem were to provide assistance against the Houthis, Riyadh would not agree to normalize ties without a resolution of the Palestinian issue. www.timesofisrael.com/saudis-repor...
timesofisrael.com
Saudis reportedly won’t budge on Israel normalization, even as they seek help against Houthis
Regional officials say kingdom is asking allies for aid in defense against missile and drone attacks from Yemen as interceptors run low, though there have yet to be signs of military support
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