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Werner Krause

@krausewe.bsky.social
2.7K followers 1.1K following 89 posts

Political Scientist @unipotsdam.bsky.social - Comparative Politics, Political Parties & Voting Behavior - Quantitative Methods & R Prev. Uni Vienna, Humboldt Uni & WZB Berlin krausewe.github.io

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Reposted by Werner Krause
Lukas Stoetzer @lstoetze.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
How do voters deal with the uncertainty which coalition government the party they vote for might ultimately join? Excited to see our paper on this question typeset in @thejop.bsky.social We show that voters are risk-averse and value less uncertain government prospects.
journals.uchicago.edu
University of Chicago Press Journals: Cookie absent
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Markus Kollberg @markuskollberg.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
🚨New Paper in @polbehavior.bsky.social! Julia Leschke and I ask: What works against populist rhetoric? We find: Advocating for pluralist ideals can mitigate the negative effects of populist rhetoric. link.springer.com/article/10.1... More details below ⏬
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
For my new research unit Politics of Democracy at the Berlin Social Science Center @wzb.bsky.social, we have 3 open research positions. 2 postdocs: 4 + 2 years (100%) 1 doc: 2 years (75%) Starting date: 1 March 2027 (negotiable) Application deadline: 1 November
Job adjob ad
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Postdoc position within my group 3 years (100% TVl-13): stellen.uni-muenster.de/jobposting/2... ⏱️ 06.11.2026 If you have questions: get in touch!
stellen.uni-muenster.de
Postdoctoral Research Associate (Wissenschaftliche*r Mitarbeiter*in, salary level E 13 TV-L)
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Denis Cohen @denis-cohen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
@krausewe.bsky.social and I also want to congratulate our co-author @aigneranna.bsky.social on her first publication! 🎉🎉 Anna is a brilliant first-year PhD candidate at @gessunimannheim.bsky.social. 👉 Follow her for research on political behavior, political psychology, and personality in politics.
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Happy to see our new paper on mainstream-to-challenger defection in print! w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @aigneranna.bsky.social Check out Denis' summary below! Thanks to @nilssteiner.bsky.social, @conradziller.bsky.social & @ackermannk.bsky.social for organizing this SI! tinyurl.com/5aa9wrmb
First page of the journal article "From the center to the fringes: A comparative test of attitudinal explanations for mainstream-to-challenger defection" by Denis Cohen, Werner Krause, and Anna Aigner, published in Electoral Studies. The page shows the journal head, author affiliations at the University of Mannheim and the University of Potsdam, keywords, a link to the replication dataset, and the full abstract.Dot plot showing net balances of vote switching between mainstream and challenger parties, in percentage points, across 16 west European elections from 1973 to 2025. Each election is a point with a 95% credible interval, ordered left to right from most negative to most positive. Values run from about −6 to +15 points; positive values mean net gains for challengers. German elections are labeled individually and mostly sit between −4 and +4 points. Germany's February 2025 election, highlighted in red, is a clear outlier at nearly +10 points, placing it among the highest in the series alongside the Netherlands 2002, Greece 2012, Denmark 1973, and Italy 1992.
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Happy to see our new paper on mainstream-to-challenger defection in print! w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @aigneranna.bsky.social Check out Denis' summary below! Thanks to @nilssteiner.bsky.social, @conradziller.bsky.social & @ackermannk.bsky.social for organizing this SI! tinyurl.com/5aa9wrmb
First page of the journal article "From the center to the fringes: A comparative test of attitudinal explanations for mainstream-to-challenger defection" by Denis Cohen, Werner Krause, and Anna Aigner, published in Electoral Studies. The page shows the journal head, author affiliations at the University of Mannheim and the University of Potsdam, keywords, a link to the replication dataset, and the full abstract.Dot plot showing net balances of vote switching between mainstream and challenger parties, in percentage points, across 16 west European elections from 1973 to 2025. Each election is a point with a 95% credible interval, ordered left to right from most negative to most positive. Values run from about −6 to +15 points; positive values mean net gains for challengers. German elections are labeled individually and mostly sit between −4 and +4 points. Germany's February 2025 election, highlighted in red, is a clear outlier at nearly +10 points, placing it among the highest in the series alongside the Netherlands 2002, Greece 2012, Denmark 1973, and Italy 1992.
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Heike Klüver @heikekluever.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
📣 We're hiring! Looking for a PhD position? Join our team in Berlin! Work with @heikekluever.bsky.social and @markuskollberg.bsky.social in #STATEWORK at Humboldt University and join our @dynamics.bsky.social PhD programme Great people, great project, great city! 🗓️ Deadline: 13 October 2026
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Long read by @vox.com on the Saxony-Anhalt state election, the rise and radicalization of the AfD, and the broader implications for German politics, with comments from @casmudde.bsky.social and me. Thanks to @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social for the interesting conversation!
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Wissensnetzwerk Rechtsextremismusforschung @wi-rex.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Dieses Paper von @krausewe.bsky.social, @denisevalenti.bsky.social & @tabouchadi.bsky.social kann nicht oft genug hervorgehoben werden. Does accomodation work? Well, no. Sie normalisiert nur die Standpunkte der extremen Rechten. (1/2)
doi.org
Does accommodation work? Mainstream party strategies and the success of radical right parties | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Does accommodation work? Mainstream party strategies and the success of radical right parties - Volume 11 Issue 1
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Im Interview mit dem Freitag habe ich darüber gesprochen warum Wähler:innen radikale Veränderungen wollen, warum das links und rechts anders ist und warum die Erzählung falsch ist die SPD habe die Arbeiter an die AfD verloren. Hier das Interview...
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Das wäre ein Vorschlag. Allerdings würden die Fehlerbereiche nur einen Teil der Unsicherheiten in einer Umfrage veranschaulichen (den vglw. leicht quantifizierbaren). Ich bereite aktuell weitere Forschung zur Darstellung der Unsicherheiten jenseits der Schwankungsbreiten vor.
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
In einem Interview mit dem @tagesspiegel.de habe ich über die Sonntagsfrage, ihre Ungenauigkeiten und ihren Einfluss auf Wählende gesprochen. Hierbei ging es auch um meine aktuelle Forschung zum Thema (u.a. mit @christinagahn.bsky.social). www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/die-...
tagesspiegel.de
Die Last-Minute-Macht der Umfragen: „Die Wähler verlassen das sinkende Schiff“
Werner Krause ist Politikwissenschaftler und hat 142 Wahlen in 25 Ländern untersucht. Wie funktionieren Voraussagen – und was beeinflusst ihre Treffsicherheit?
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timhellwig.bsky.social @timhellwig.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
New research with Lawrence Ezrow and Werner Krause in @wepsocial.bsky.social We show that more extreme governments are more likely to deliver policy solely to their supporters
tandfonline.com
Policy over votes: why extreme governments respond to their supporters
Responsive government means changes in policy reflect changes in citizen preferences. But which citizens? This study examines that question through the lens of policymakers’ incentives to respond t...
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Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 05/08/2026
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
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Christina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Danke @irisbonavida.bsky.social für das Gespräch! Kurz gesagt: Für Parteien an der Vier-Prozent-Hürde macht es einen Unterschied, ob eine Umfrage sie knapp darunter oder knapp darüber zeigt. 📊🗳️ Wer mehr Details wissen möchte – das Paper mit @krausewe.bsky.social gibt es hier: doi.org/10.1086/742632
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Congrats, Vicente! So well deserved!
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
I believe AT has a couple of features that make a null plausible. E.g., AT was not during an active election campaign & the blame focused on governing competence and geopolitics - less on ideological core values. We discuss the scope conditions in the conclusion. But curious about your thoughts!
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Yes! We are aware. We discuss the reversal and prior PP-VOX cooperation in the paper. Maybe one brief point: The reversal falls outside the CIS fieldwork window, so we identify the immediate effect of the rupture, not of the eventual coalition.
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Overall, we find that a credible, costly, and ideologically grounded refusal of the far right can pay off for mainstream parties - without feeding the challenger. ... even in times of prior cooperation between both parties. Comments are very welcome! [6/6]
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Our evidence points to ideological differentiation as the main mechanism. Ideologically moderate PP sympathizers, reassured by the center right's distancing from the far right, stayed in the PP camp. We also see no relevant vote flows between VOX and PP. [5/6]
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Our results cut against the conventional belief. Support for the center-right PP rose by 2-4 points, robust across a wide range of specifications. The far-right VOX gained nothing - if anything, it lost slightly. [4/6]
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
The negotiation breakdown immediately became national news - just one month before the Spanish general election. The rupture happened mid-fieldwork of the national election survey. That lets us treat it as a natural experiment by comparing vote intentions just before and after the rupture. [3/6]
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
In June 2023 in Extremadura, María Guardiola, lead candidate of the center-right PP, publicly broke off coalition talks with the far-right VOX. The rupture was justified on explicit ideological grounds, citing immigration, sexist violence, and LGTBI rights. www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnjZ... [2/6]
youtube.com
Guardiola: "No puedo dejar entrar en el gobierno a aquellos que niegan la violencia machista"
YouTube video by El Mundo
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]
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Markus Wagner @markuswagner.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Now out: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
New paper, with Patrick Fournier & @zeynsom.bsky.social, out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social! 🔗 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... a brief 🧵
journals.sagepub.com
Do Citizens Perceive an empty Left-Authoritarian Quadrant? Citizen Perceptions of Parties’ Positions in a Multi-Dimensional Space - Ruth Dassonneville, Patrick Fournier, Zeynep Somer-Topcu, 2026
Given that there are few parties in the left-authoritarian quadrant of a two-dimensional ideological space, citizens that combine economically left and sociocul...
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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Heading to the #EPSSBelfast conference next week? The EPSS Diversity Committee has organized several events to make this a welcoming space for everyone. Quick thread on what's happening and when 👇
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.
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Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
One of the most intriguing papers I read during the last years 👇
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Thanks for the shout-out, @chriswratil.bsky.social!
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Thank you, Theresa! This is much appreciated!
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Not yet - but drop me an email and I can send it to you.
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Christina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Excited to share our new paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @krausewe.bsky.social! Parties polling just below an electoral threshold are far less likely to clear it: a self-fulfilling prophecy that diminishes when polls communicate uncertainty. 🗳️📊 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
The key takeaway is in our opinion not that polls should be restricted or banned. But how we report them matters a lot. We are grateful for feedback from many colleagues along the way, and to the AUTNES team and our research assistants for their excellent support.
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
This effect, however, weakens if polling uncertainty is clearly communicated to voters. Using a survey experiment conducted in Austria, we show that visualizing party-specific margins of error significantly increases vote intentions for parties polling just below the threshold.
Two side-by-side newspaper vignettes showing Austrian election poll results. The KPÖ polls at 3.5%, just below the 4% threshold. The left vignette displays bars with margin-of-error ranges and a headline conveying uncertainty. The right vignette shows plain bars without margin-of-error ranges and a headline stating the KPÖ will not enter parliament.A marginal effects plot with 95% confidence intervals showing the effect of margin-of-error visualization on KPÖ vote intentions across three groups of respondents. The effect is positive and statistically significant for left-leaning respondents (approximately 5 percentage points), and close to zero for center and right-leaning respondents.
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Using an RDD, we find that parties polling just *below* the threshold are substantially less likely to clear it on election day than those just *above*. That gap is too large to be explained by polling accuracy alone. This shows that polls do not just measure voter preferences - they shape them.
Three-panel regression discontinuity figure. Panel A shows a scatter plot with polynomial fit revealing a sharp jump in threshold-crossing probability at the cut-off point, with an RD estimate of 0.459. Panel B shows the estimate remains stable across different bandwidth sizes. Panel C shows placebo estimates clustered near zero for alternative cut-off points, confirming the validity of the design.
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Whether a party clears the electoral threshold critically influences which voices are heard in parliament and, sometimes, in government. We study what happens to parties hovering right around that line in the polls - drawing on 1,095 party-polling estimates across 142 elections in 25 countries.
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
🚨 What happens with voters when politicians use simpler language? New @thejop.bsky.social paper with @rsenninger.bsky.social: simple language changes not just what citizens understand, but who they think politicians are. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
Can Simple Language Affect Voters’ Political Knowledge and Their Beliefs About Politicians? | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No 0
How does the level of sophistication in political messages affect citizens? While research has examined how politicians use this element to distinguish themselves, little is known about how it resonat...
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Katjana Gattermann @kgattermann.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Less than 1 week left to apply for this exciting postdoc opportunity ⬇️ @kathleenbeckers.bsky.social & I look forward to receiving applications 😀
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
🥳🥳🥳
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Marc Hooghe @marchooghe.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Voters for extreme right protest parties have lower levels of subjective well-being, @stevendekeyser.bsky.social, @dieterstiers.bsky.social and I show in a new article in Journal of Happiness Studies @isqols.bsky.social . The effect, however, is almost fully mediated by anti-immigrant sentimens.
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Konstantin Bogatyrev @bogatyrev.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
New paper w/ @lstoetze.bsky.social "Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls" out in @polanalysis.bsky.social 👀 When your outcomes are compositional (such as vote shares), applying synthetic controls separately to each part can break the math. We show how to fix it: 🧵
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Lena Maria Huber @lenamariahuber.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
📣 New paper out in BJPolS 📣
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Diane Bolet @dianebolet.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
A reminder that applications for this 3-year fully funded PhD position close at the end of next week (May 17). This is a great opportunity to work on climate politics comparative politics in a vibrant environment, with loads of freedom to develop your own project. www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...
sciencespo.fr
Call for applications for a 3 years doctoral contract
For the ERC GREENLOSS Project - Application deadline: May 17, 2026
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Amazing! Congrats again! 🎉
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Very happy to share that I am going to be the new Director of the Democracy unit at the @wzb.bsky.social Berlin Social Science Center. I am excited to form a new research unit on democratic politics and to engage with people in Berlin and elsewhere to make liberal democracy more resilient.
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
@zeit.de (@tilsteff.bsky.social) mit einem einordnenden Beitrag zum Landesparteitag der AfD in Magdeburg, zu dem auch ich einige Sätze beitragen durfte. > Die AfD ist in Sachsen-Anhalt nicht nur normalisiert und etabliert, sondern auch in sich selbst gewöhnlicher geworden. tinyurl.com/2j4b96ey
zeit.de
AfD-Wahlprogramm Sachsen-Anhalt: Sanfter Ton, radikale Pläne
Zur Wahl im September nimmt die AfD in Sachsen-Anhalt Anlauf auf die absolute Mehrheit. Wie wahrscheinlich ist, dass es dazu kommt? Besuch des Parteitags
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