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Joshua Kertzer

@jkertzer.bsky.social
2.4K followers 511 following 106 posts

John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and of Government at Harvard University | International relations 🤝 political psychology jkertzer.sites.fas.harvard.edu

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Reposted by Joshua Kertzer
Noah Zucker @noahzucker.com · 23/09/2026
🚨 Workforces exposed to globalization and decarbonization are often overwhelmingly male. New article at @ajpseditor.bsky.social with @rickyclark.bsky.social and @rkhoban.bsky.social asks how layoffs of these men shape voting: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
AJPS article: "Breadwinner Backlash." Abstract: Low-skilled men have long been vulnerable to globalization, decarbonization, and other forms of economic disruption. When shocks are realized, women often increase their paid labor to compensate for men's loss of income. We study how layoffs of low-skilled men and concurrent shifts in workforce composition toward women affect voting. We theorize that this labor market rebalancing produces “nostalgic” coalitions of men and women that seek a return to male-breadwinner family models. Such attitudes fuel right-wing movements that pledge to protect conservative gender roles. Evidence from local labor markets and voting in the United States over the last two decades, as well as a longitudinal study tracking individual Americans over several decades, support this theory. These findings contribute a new gender-based account of the globalization backlash.
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Please stop sending me AI-generated manuscripts to review! Thank you for your attention to this matter
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
A huge thank you to all of the hard-working team at @apsa.bsky.social, and countless section and program chairs, for a wonderful #APSA2026 in Boston! 🦞 Special shout-out to all of the grad students who took time to introduce themselves! I know everything is stressful, but you're doing great! 😊
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
What's #APSA2026 for, if not for a Sunday 8 AM panel? Leaders! Decision-making! - Jack Levy & Yintong Chen - @mlandauwells.bsky.social - @mitsurumu.bsky.social & I - Hohyun Yoon & Jonathan Renshon - @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social James Kim - @profsaunders.bsky.social @mikegoldfien.bsky.social
Leaders and Decision-Making in IR
Sun, September 6, 8:00 to 9:30am EDT (8:00 to 9:30am EDT), Marriott, Salon I

This panel examines how leaders and their characteristics shape foreign policy decision-making in international security. The papers build on insights from psychology and foreign policy analysis to advance our understanding of how leaders matter in international politics, whether in regards to the microfoundations of risk-taking and threat perceptions, the role of emotions and experiences, or methodological advances in the study of elite cognition. The papers offer lessons for integrating psychological processes, improved measurement, and elite-mass dynamics into theories of international politics and security.
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Noah Zucker @noahzucker.com · 01/09/2026
Princeton Niehaus Center (@niehauscenter.bsky.social) now accepting applications for 2027–28 postdoctoral fellowships: niehaus.princeton.edu/fellowships Deadline: Thursday, October 15, 2026
niehaus.princeton.edu
Apply for our Fellowships
Apply NowThe Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance (NCGG) at Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs invites applications for postdoctoral research associates from ...
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Minju Kim @minjulisettekim.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Attending APSA? I will host a book roundtable on my recently published book TAMING THE CAREERISTS! The roundtable will take place on Saturday, September 5, from 10am to 11:30am in Marriott Salon C.
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Political Psychology @ispp-pops.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
When is an outgroup kinda sorta an ingroup? Lucy Song asks whether race affects foreign threat perception. Among white Americans, higher white identity tracked with viewing white-depicted adversaries as lower threat than non-white-depicted, even when controlling for out-group animus. buff.ly/yFalewy
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
These were towards the slop end of the continuum, sadly, and started arriving the last few weeks. My (motivated) theory is it's largely coming from folks outside the discipline but 🤷🏻‍♂️
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
It's not just a letter --- it's a revolution. As long as it's load-bearing, and doesn't write a check its evidence can't cash.
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Please stop sending me AI-generated manuscripts to review! Thank you for your attention to this matter
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Congratulations to @chagaiweiss.bsky.social on the publication of Delivering Tolerance! A rigorous and engaging take on institutional solutions for prejudice reduction, and an impressive study of contact theory at scale ⚙️🧠🕊️ @princetonupress.bsky.social
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Interested in the public’s skepticism towards new technology like AI? @janzilinsky.bsky.social and I’ve got a paper for you. We built a scale and found that worries about social media, AI, and modernity form a coherent anti-tech disposition. Conditionally accepted at @ajpseditor.bsky.social
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Also, since it comes up every year, and confuses me every time: Despite Harvard's search ads using weird language on this, you *don't* need letters from people outside your committee ✨ (Apparently in some disciplines, only your dissertation chair is called an "advisor"...)
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
(Though I predict answer will always be: you should apply! ☺️)
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
🚨 Going up on eJobs later today: Harvard has an open-field tenure-track search this fall, with priority areas in American Politics, International Relations, Formal Theory, and Quantitative Methods. Feel free to reach out with any questions! academicpositions.harvard.edu/postings/16668
academicpositions.harvard.edu
TENURE-TRACK PROFESSOR IN GOVERNMENT
The Department of Government seeks to appoint a tenure-track professor in Government. The appointment is expected to begin on July 1, 2027. The tenure-track professor will be responsible for teaching ...
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
We've found this to be a great way to build intellectual community during the summer (incoming PhD students can participate too!), and the no-presentation format (an equilibrium where everyone actually reads) produces far better discussion (and hopefully, is more useful to the authors too!)
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Many thanks to @jemimabaar.bsky.social @cerny.bsky.social & Hyunbin Choi for organizing, and to the authors who agreed to share their work @chriswblair.bsky.social @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social @joshschwartz.bsky.social @joshuabyun.bsky.social @allisoncarnegie.bsky.social @sheenagreitens.bsky.social
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The 2026 iteration of the Harvard-MIT IR Summer Reading Group has wrapped up! 📚 For our format innovation this year, each week a guest (non)-speaker circulated work in progress, which we discussed and provided feedback for over lunch (this year's line-up is below)
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Princeton University Press @princetonupress.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
In Delivering Tolerance, @chagaiweiss.bsky.social develops a new theory of prejudice reduction, arguing that public institutions & the people within them can improve intergroup relations in conflict-ridden societies. Out now! Learn more: press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...
Delivering Tolerance: How Unintended Institutional Inclusion Reduces Prejudice by Chagai M. Weiss
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Minju Kim @minjulisettekim.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
My book, Taming the Careerists, will be published by Cambridge University Press this September! There is growing debate over whether federal employees should be easier to dismiss in order to make them more responsive to presidential directives. What would be the consequences of such a change?
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
We typically think of deterrence as cold and calculating. In a new JCR with @uoft-poli-sci.bsky.social's Pomeroy & Rathbun, we explore the psychology of deterrence thinking, showing it relies on intuition instead. When we shoot, we shoot from the hip. 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Building on work by @dgrand.bsky.social @hugoreasoning.bsky.social @m-b-petersen.bsky.social @ac-lopez.bsky.social @profmholmes.bsky.social and others, we show IR may have over-rationalized what’s often an intuitive impulse, and offer a new reason why conflict spirals can be so hard to escape.
journals.sagepub.com
Shooting From the Hip: The Counterintuitively Intuitive Nature of Deterrence - Brian C. Rathbun, Caleb Pomeroy, Joshua D. Kertzer, 2026
Much if not most of human judgment is intuitive rather than reflective, but what types of behaviors result from non-deliberative as opposed to deliberative choi...
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
We use a wide range of evidence: ⏱️ a time-pressure experiment, showing thinking fast → escalation 🧠 a survey showing cor(deliberation, 🕊️) 📚 text analysis of Cold War-era deliberations in FRUS 🤠 a case study of Reagan, as famous for "going with his gut" as for his Cold Warrior ways
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Drawing on evolutionary psychology, we argue intuition, rather than deliberative thought, begets retaliatory aggression and deterrence model beliefs. 

 Instinctive reactions to aggression help us more credibly signal resolve and ward off threats, precisely because they’re fast and intuitive.
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
We typically think of deterrence as cold and calculating. In a new JCR with @uoft-poli-sci.bsky.social's Pomeroy & Rathbun, we explore the psychology of deterrence thinking, showing it relies on intuition instead. When we shoot, we shoot from the hip. 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
From April 2026 - Elite Misperceptions in Foreign Policy - cup.org/4cmGwBb - @jkertzer.bsky.social, Joshua Busby, Jonathan Monten, @jordantama.bsky.social & @ckafura.bsky.social #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract from a research paper discussing domestic politics in international relations, focusing on American public opinion from 2004-23. The paper highlights how foreign policy elites misinterpret public opinion, perceiving it as more isolationist. The study uses paired surveys of elites and non-elites...
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Pia Raffler @piaraffler.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Publishing null results *is* hard. Thrilled to finally see this paper with @danielnposner.bsky.social and @dougparkerson.bsky.social investigating the impact of bottom-up accountability on healthcare outcomes in print in the JOP. Thread 👇 doi.org/10.1086/736577
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
Happy 50th birthday @ssp-mit.bsky.social! 🥂 Security studies wouldn't be the same without you!
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ISPP @polpsyispp.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Congratulations to Leonie Huddy of Stony Brook University on receiving the 2026 Harold Lasswell Award for Distinguished Scientific Contributions. Read more about Leonie and all ISPP award winners here: bit.ly/4vMtt2X #ISPP #PoliticalPsychology #LasswellAward
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Excited to share my new paper w/ @janzilinsky.bsky.social that's conditionally accepted at @ajpseditor.bsky.social 🎉 Is there a general "anti-technology" orientation among Americans? We built a scale and found that worries about social media, AI, and modernity do form a coherent disposition.
Artificial Intelligence, Social Media, and the Politics of Anti-Technology
Jan Zilinsky
Technical University of Munich
Institute of Experimental Psychology at the Slovak Academy of Sciences
Thomas Zeitzoff American University
Abstract
The growth of new digital technology, in particular new forms of communication and ar- tificial intelligence, has raised questions about technology’s role in society. Critics argue that it has increased hate speech, polarized the electorate, reduced deliberation, and coarsened the discourse. Others have emphasized the democratizing potential of tools facilitating col- lective action and enabling broader exchange of ideas. To better understand citizens’ general orientation towards technology, we develop a new anti-technology scale and test it on two diverse samples of Americans. Our scale measures three distinct areas of anti-technology attitudes: 1) attitudes towards social media, 2) attitudes towards artificial intelligence, and 3) concerns about modernity. We show that these areas form a general latent anti-technology orientation. We then show that this general anti-tech orientation predicts attitudes towards technology policies and support for contentious actions against tech companies. Finally, we use a pairwise comparison experiment to understand which pro- and anti-AI arguments are most persuasive.
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Thanks so much for your awesome work on these questions, which we learned a lot from! 🙏
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Interestingly, the mechanisms here differ from existing findings on domestic politics on projection biases, since the issues elites themselves support the most are the ones they presume the public opposes (and vice versa) Lots more in the paper! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Elite Misperceptions in Foreign Policy | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Elite Misperceptions in Foreign Policy - Volume 56
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Via seven waves of survey data from 2002-2024 (+ 1 survey experiment), we show that FP opinion leaders systematically misperceive Americans as more inward-looking than they really are, underestimating support for: - Free trade - Immigration - Working through IOs - Playing an active role 🌎 - etc.
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Meanwhile, there's a lot of great work in AP/CP showing elites misperceive public opinion (by @miguelpereira.bsky.social @awhf.bsky.social @liorsheffer.bsky.social @cskovron.bsky.social @dbroockman.bsky.social @alexanderfurnas.com @timlapira.bsky.social + ∞), but it tends to focus on domestic issues
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
There's a lot of great work on misperceptions in IR, but always about what foreign actors want, rather than domestic ones www.amazon.com/Perception-M...
amazon.com
Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Center for International Affairs, Harvard University)
Amazon.com: Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Center for International Affairs, Harvard University): 9780691100494: Jervis, Robert: Books
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
🚨 Now out in @bjpols.bsky.social w @busbyj2.bsky.social @jordantama.bsky.social @ckafura.bsky.social: Do American foreign policy elites know what the public wants? Partnering with @global-affairs.bsky.social, we show that elites systematically misread the room 🧵 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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EJIR @ejir.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
"Voluntary action in International Relations" by Joseph M. Parent and Paul K. MacDonald has recently been published in EJIR and is available online. Find it here: t1p.de/otzph
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Vincent Heddesheimer @vheddesheimer.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
📢 New paper out in @AJPS_Editor with Christian Baehr & Fiona Bare: "Climate Exposure Drives Firm Political Behavior: Evidence from Earnings Calls and Lobbying Data" When & how do firms engage in climate politics? 🧵 🔗 doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
NEW - Elite Misperceptions in Foreign Policy - cup.org/4cmGwBb - @jkertzer.bsky.social, Joshua Busby, Jonathan Monten, @jordantama.bsky.social & @ckafura.bsky.social #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract of a research paper discussing the perception gap between elites and public opinion on foreign policy based on surveys of American elites and the public. It highlights a tendency for elites to view public opinion as more isolationist, impacting foreign policy decisions.
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 27/03/2026
#OpenAccess from @iojournal.bsky.social - Convergent Flexibility: How International Law Keeps Pace with Technological Change - cup.org/4bLca9S - @jcanfil.bsky.social #FirstView
A large white "IO" on a dark blue background with the hashtag "#OpenAccess" below it.
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Elizabeth Nugent @ernugent.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Out in @thejop.bsky.social: How Exiles Mobilize Domestic Dissent with @aasiegel.bsky.social We investigate how Egyptian exiles influenced a cascade of online dissent that culminated in anti-regime protests back home in September 2019. Article link: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
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Harvard Department of Government @harvardgovdept.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
"Sandel is the closest thing political philosophy has to a rock star. He’s known, in particular, for his Socratic style of moral questioning." Read the @nytimes.com piece 👉 www.nytimes.com/2026/03/01/b...
nytimes.com
A Philosopher ‘Prophet’
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Erik Voeten @erikvoeten.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Conceptualizing and Measuring Geopolitical Alignments - www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
annualreviews.org
Conceptualizing and Measuring Geopolitical Alignments
A vast literature examines how geopolitical alignments influence militarized conflict, trade, investment, aid, and other outcomes in international relations. Yet, considerable ambiguity remains regard...
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Writing an autoethnography about my experience watching academics attempt to use listservs
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
New in Terrorism & Political Violence: Why did radical environmental groups stop using arson & sabotage? And, given the threat from climate change why haven't those tactics returned? My article "Where's the Sabotage" seeks to answer these questions. Free link: www.tandfonline.com/eprint/QYFAW...
Where’s the Sabotage? Repression, Recruitment, and Tactical Evolution in the U.S. Radical Environmental Movement. Thomas Zeitzoff   Why did the U.S. radical environmental movement shift away from tactics like arson and sabotage in the mid-2000s? And given the rising threat of climate change, why haven’t these more contentious tactics made a comeback? This puzzle is particularly significant to scholars of terrorism because radical environmental groups like the Earth Liberation Front appear in major terrorism databases, and faced heavy repression from the government, despite causing no fatalities. I argue that repression and recruitment networks play a central role in shaping tactical repertoires. To test this theory, I combine original data on eco direct actions (1995–2022), surveys, and interviews of activist experts. I find that repression sharply reduced the pace of direct actions—particularly sabotage and arson—and disrupted the punk and anarchist recruitment networks that had supported them. In their place, the climate justice movement emerged, favoring civil disobedience and mass protest over clandestine tactics. Repression thus altered the movement both directly (by targeting high-risk actors and their tactics) and indirectly (by reshaping recruitment pipelines). I conclude with a discussion of how climate politics, activist subcultures, repression, and the contested boundary of what constitutes terrorism may influence the future trajectory of radical environmentalism.
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samuel mehr @mehr.nz · 20/02/2026
the new paper on bouba/kiki in chicks is utterly compelling canonical, elegant method from comparative cogsci & its partner in developmental science, ultra-simple design, ultra-clear effects, no need for fancy analyses, machine learning, or AI it appeared in an appropriately badass venue (Science)
Matching sounds to shapes: Evidence of the bouba-kiki effect in naïve baby chicks  Maria Loconsole1*, Silvia Benavides-Varela2,3, Lucia Regolin1  Humans across multiple languages spontaneously associate the nonwords “kiki” and “bouba” with spiky and round shapes, respectively, a phenomenon named the bouba-kiki effect. To explore the origin of this association, and whether it is unique to humans, we tested the bouba-kiki effect in baby domestic chickens (Gallus gallus). as a precocial species, chicks can be tested shortly after hatching, allowing us to control their pretest experiences. Similar to humans, both 3-day-old [experiment 1 (exp. 1)] and 1-day-old (exp. 2) chicks spontaneously choose a spiky shape when hearing the “kiki” sound and a round shape when hearing the “bouba” sound. results from naïve young animals suggest a predisposed mechanism for matching the dimensions of shape and sound, which may be widespread across species.main fig from the paper showing the association between bouba/round and kiki/spiky in newborn chicks
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
This new paper offers practical solutions for pluralistic ignorance (when people assume their opinon is unpopular when many others share it): -in loose cultures, share accurate information -in tight ones, lowering the costs of speaking up can spark social change. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Lol
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International Organization @iojournal.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Automated nuclear weapons systems are not just a Hollywood plot device. In this #Firstview article, @joshschwartz.bsky.social and @mchorowitz.bsky.social evaluate how they could impact the credibility and effectiveness of nuclear threats. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
nam12.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
Delegating Destruction: Coercive Threats and Automated Nuclear Systems | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Delegating Destruction: Coercive Threats and Automated Nuclear Systems
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Mitsuru Mukaigawara, MD, MPP @mitsurumu.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Our new ProjectGEOCAUSAL website is live! We’ll be posting the latest updates on cutting-edge applications of spatiotemporal causal inference to address the world’s most pressing problems. Check it out: geocausal.org
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