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Thomas Zeitzoff

@zeitzoff.bsky.social
10K followers 3K following 595 posts

Professor @au-spa.bsky.social Pol Violence | Pol Psychology New Book: “NO OPTION BUT SABOTAGE” Substack: zeitzoff.substack.com 1st Book: "Nasty Politics" Website: www.zeitzoff.com

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Reposted by Thomas Zeitzoff
Omar García-Ponce @garciaponce.bsky.social · 3h
1/8 🧵 New paper with @isabellatingley.bsky.social, now out open access in the @bjpols.bsky.social “The Legacy of Mexico’s Drug War on Youth Political Attitudes” Our paper examines how growing up amid criminal violence and militarized security shapes political attitudes later in life.
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Got great feedback at @belfercenter.bsky.social yesterday for a new project on how people think about the political future. 2 highlights from the survey data:* 1) Ds, Rs, & independents are all worried about AI 2) Strong support for reining in Big Tech/AI *Forthright/Bovitz, N=1,405, Aug-Sep 2026
Title slide: "The Coming Storm: Do Future Threats Lead to Support Illiberal Policies?" Plot showing that among Americans, AI (along with economic collapse, and political violence) is seen as a top-threat. Horizontal bar chart of support for seven technology policies. Three restriction policies, in blue, poll highest: legal limits on AI job replacement at 79%, breaking up big tech at 61%, and banning AI smarter than humans at 60%. Four acceleration policies, in gold, poll far lower: government manipulating weather at 32%, genetic engineering at 23%, hospitals using AI over doctors at 23%, and government fast-tracking new technology at 19%. Americans are much more willing to restrain technology than to deploy more of it.
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This is the season I picked to introduce my son to Tottenham 🫠
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Why are Americans more skeptical of AI than those in other countries? I don't think there's a uniquely Americans strain of technophobia. My sense is that many Americans have a rational fear/loathing of the people (CEOs) who will benefit $$ in an AI future.
2025 Pew survey on rise of AI in daily life...U.S. is most concerned country https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/10/15/how-people-around-the-world-view-ai/Stanford AI Index Report on Opinions about AI across countries. https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/public-opinionNYT: Steve Bannon and Bernie Sanders Condemn Tech ‘Oligarchs’ and Demand A.I. Reforms

At an event in Washington, partisanship took a back seat as elected officials, religious leaders, parents and artists called for reining in artificial intelligence. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/us/steve-bannon-bernie-sanders-ai.html
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Fascinating piece from @garciaponce.bsky.social on how Mexican criminal organizations operate and even govern alongside the state. goodauthority.org/news/how-mex...
goodauthority.org
How Mexico’s cartels rule alongside government institutions
Research in Michoacán shows how criminal groups survive leadership turnovers, expand into new markets, and retain power.
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Matthew Doyle @mattdoyle.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
1. This is the platonic ideal of a Union goal. While the results have changed under Richter, the game model has not. 2. Just holy shit, Cavan Sullivan. Running out of superlatives.
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
L’shana tova. Wishing for a more peaceful new year.
Round challah, apples, honey, candles and shofar.
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Where does democracy in the U.S. and around the world currently stand? New from @adamprz.bsky.social, one to the smartest thinkers on the subject. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Are Our Expectations Too High for Democracy? Adam Przeworski Thinks So. (Gift Article)
What is democracy, and is it in crisis?
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Mike Thompson-Brusstar @mthompsonbrusstar.com · 04/09/2026
Have you seen this? benjaminlauderdale.net/publications...
benjaminlauderdale.net
Pragmatic Social Measurement : benjaminlauderdale.net
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I loved my PhD methods training at NYU (a lot of causal inference + design). But I do find myself teaching myself and reading a lot up on measurement (it's a fascinating topic).
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Noah Zucker @noahzucker.com · 01/09/2026
Princeton Niehaus Center (@niehauscenter.bsky.social) now accepting applications for 2027–28 postdoctoral fellowships: niehaus.princeton.edu/fellowships Deadline: Thursday, October 15, 2026
niehaus.princeton.edu
Apply for our Fellowships
Apply NowThe Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance (NCGG) at Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs invites applications for postdoctoral research associates from ...
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I tried to make some sense of how we can think about Trump's increasingly chaotic and erratic foreign policy and what it means for those of us who study leader psychology. zeitzoff.substack.com/p/its-a-mad-...
zeitzoff.substack.com
It’s a Mad World: Trump, Rationality, and IR Theories
Trump doesn’t break our IR theories—he just shows our measurement problems
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I’ve got a new post. Trump's erratic foreign policy chaos doesn't break our models of leader behavior. It just shows us where we need better measurement.* zeitzoff.substack.com/p/its-a-mad-...
zeitzoff.substack.com
It’s a Mad World: Trump, Rationality, and IR Theories
Trump doesn’t break our IR theories—he just shows our measurement problems
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I’ll take some positive news www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-...
scientificamerican.com
How solar became the cheapest form of energy in the world
Here are four reasons solar energy has seen a meteoric rise in recent years
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Many folks are replying to lament the loss of the paper. I agree we shouldn't give up on it! Google Docs version history + Pangram + submissions of multiple iterations of the paper + giving an exam on the paper is quite effective - see this syllabus, for example bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.dartmo...
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Interested in the public’s skepticism towards new technology like AI? @janzilinsky.bsky.social and I’ve got a paper for you. We built a scale and found that worries about social media, AI, and modernity form a coherent anti-tech disposition. Conditionally accepted at @ajpseditor.bsky.social
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
People are conflating the success of left-leaning, progressive candidates with a broader leftward shift among Democratic voters. My read is that it’s driven more by deep anger among Democratic voters who think party leaders haven’t used the power they have to fight Trump II aggressively enough.
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I wrote this because most journalists facing this pressure can’t. The paper we count on to check authoritarianism spiked an investigation into the Democratic Party because the party’s lawyers threatened to sue. Holding authoritarians accountable starts with holding your own side accountable.
data4democracy.substack.com
With Fear and Favor
Institutions don’t have courage. They have incentives.
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EM Simpson @emsetc.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
while this post is about launch systems on aircraft carriers, it basically applies to almost all of Trump's policies. reversion to some previous era based on the most bizarre, deliberate misreading of available facts and evidence
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Very cool article by @rossandersen.bsky.social on the new archaeological and DNA evidence changing our understanding of human history. www.theatlantic.com/science/2026...
theatlantic.com
The Human-Origin Story Is Being Radically Revised
New secrets from our past have been coming out in droves.
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Kathleen Bachynski @bachynski.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
This is a great day for public health. “In a move that seemed out of reach just six months ago, the Food and Drug Administration approved Moderna’s influenza vaccine for older adults on Wednesday, the first licensed flu shot made using messenger RNA technology.” @jackiantonovich.bsky.social
statnews.com
FDA approves Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine, the first to use the technology
The FDA has approved Moderna’s influenza vaccine, the first licensed flu shot made using messenger RNA technology.
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
His #1 near-term recommendation: convene committee leaders and use the DNC's authority to draft a fundraising code of conduct for candidates and committees. Not in the DNC release.

Near-Term Recommendations
As leaders and stakeholders consider next steps, and as court cases and advisory opinions reshape the way money moves across the electoral ecosystem, there are a few near-term recommendations.
1. Democrats can improve fundraising returns and the donor experience – convene committee leaders to explore optimization strategies and use the DNC’s authority to draft a campaign fundraising code for adoption by candidates and committees.
2. Time is irreplaceable. Invest earlier to scale earlier to identify and turn out supporters earlier.
3. Define what effective organizing will be in 2026 and 2027 as a prelude to 2028 and the 2030 Census and the next round of redistricting. The waves of right-wing spending are coming – and organizing will make the difference....
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Guy Grossman @guygrossman.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
For a congressman to violently assault his ex-spouse is not a private/family matter.
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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Somehow missed this one. Seems like a pretty relevant and well-done paper!
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Omar García-Ponce @garciaponce.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
This may have been one of the most statistically one-sided World Cup finals in history, particularly in terms of shot production: Spain outshot Argentina 22–3, while Argentina failed to register a single shot on target over 120 minutes.
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Kevin Elliott @kjephd.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Political scientists do not have a good account of where political issues come from. Why does tangling with the medical system make us think of universal healthcare, while wildfire smoke registers as just a thing to get through? What forges the links between our daily experiences & 'politics?'
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Leah Stokes @leahstokes.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Democrats have stopped talking about climate. Strategists say that's smart—but they're wrong. Making climate a top priority wins votes, and barely 1 in 10 voters will vote against climate action. Read all about it in my newsletter, "Notes from the Electric Era." electricnotes.news/p/yes-democr...
electricnotes.news
Yes, Democrats Should Talk About Climate.
Talking about Climate Change is a Political Winner.
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
800+ wildfires in Canada. Wildfire smoke is choking large parts of the U.S. and Canada right now. In my book I ask whether the increasing negative effects of climate change like this will be a tipping point that mobilizes people. www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
More than 800 Canadian wildfires burning as air quality alerts extend to US
The air quality in large parts of Michigan, Minneapolis and Minnesota is deemed "hazardous" by authorities.
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
www.espn.com/soccer/story...
espn.com
The USMNT's struggles at the World Cup can't be fixed by overhauling youth development
Everyone thinks they can fix the USMNT. But maybe the U.S. is actually making progress and luck just hasn't been on its side -- what then?
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Kori Schake @kschake.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
This is a misleading argument, based as it is on a single case — the canonical case — of a partisan military leader, and the system worked to remove him. The historical reality is that in the last 100 years, MacArthur is the only real case.
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Oh boy. Argentinean cardiologists are doing brisk business.
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Welcome to the joys of being a USMNT fan. 🙃 U.S. is the national team of the future and always will be. 🇺🇸⚽️
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
U.S. chasing shadows out there 😬 🇺🇸⚽️

U.S. vs. Belgium first half https://www.fotmob.com/matches/usa-vs-belgium/1urw5j#4653845:tab=stats
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
England getting the full CONCACAF experience. If you love Azteca, you’ll love San Pedro Sula!
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Soccer and politics have always been inextricably linked. The Trump/FIFA/Balogun saga is just an in-your-face reminder of that fact. I wrote about soccer and politics at the beginning of the World Cup— there’s some really good research out there about it. zeitzoff.substack.com/p/peace-viol...
zeitzoff.substack.com
Peace, Violence, and the Beautiful Game
How soccer shapes nationalism, prejudice, and conflict—my 5 favorite studies
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Ryan Rosenblatt @ryanrosenblatt.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Hosting the World Cup means everyone bends over backwards to help you. It is a tale as old as the tournament itself.
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
For xG merchants out there, Canada will feel hard done by the score line.
Canada xG=0.86 to MoroccoxG=0.77

https://www.fotmob.com/matches/canada-vs-morocco/17e1pm#4653843
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Omar García-Ponce @garciaponce.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Excited to contribute to @goodauth.bsky.social and to write about crime, violence, and democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean!
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
It's brutally hot in DC. So I wrote about how politicians, including many Democratic ones, are misreading voters and downplaying the public's appetite for action on climate change. zeitzoff.substack.com/p/let-us-coo...
Al Jazeera map Heat dome to scorch U.S. cities this week. CNN on drinking water https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/25/health/summer-heat-water-hydration-exercise-wellness
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
We are cooking on the East Coast right now. But it's become accepted wisdom that voters don't care about climate change. I wrote about just how wrong that is—and how political elites, including Democratic leaders, are misreading the public. zeitzoff.substack.com/p/let-us-coo...
zeitzoff.substack.com
Let Us Cook? Sweltering Heatwaves, No Climate Policy—Because the Public Doesn’t Care? Not So Fast.
Thanks for reading Peace & Violence!
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
I’ve been a USMNT fan ever since my grandfather took me to see a US vs Ukraine friendly in 1993. Watched way too many CONCACAF Gold Cups and World Cup qualifiers (2018 Couva🤪). It’s so cool that this team is doing this during a home World Cup ⚽️🇺🇸
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Trust the process and trust the lemons! 🍋⚽️🇺🇸
Pochettino
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
With the recent progressive victories in Democratic primaries is that its hard to separate out: 1) Anger at incumbents and Dem party leaders 2) Dem base shifting to the left My hunch is that it’s more 1) than 2).
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Unprecedented corruption
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Soccer is a high-variance sport 🤪
Germany xg=1.49 vs Paraguay xg=0.42
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Gernot Wagner @gwagner.com · 25/06/2026
Hard to overstate how dramatic this European heatwave is. And then you zoom into other areas around the globe, and you realize there may, just may be something going on that links all these weather extremes around the world. @climatecentral.org's CSI: csi.climatecentral.org/climate-shif...
Climate Shift Index showing climate fingerprint in European beatwaveNorth AmericaMideastAsia
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Fabrizio Romano (MIRROR) @fabrizioromano.yopro20.com · 28/06/2026
🌎🇨🇦 OFFICIAL: Canada qualify to World Cup 2026 Round of 16 for the FIRST TIME EVER!
Image uploaded from tweet
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
If there's one issue people aren't paying enough attention to, it's the risk of Russia imploding. Into what, I have no idea. But it's tempting to think that Putin stability will continue forever regardless of the war's outcome.
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
We got FIFA World Cup 2026 pint glasses as a gift and after 1 wash the paint is cracking and peeling. Right on brand.
FIFA 2026 cup pint glass that is suppose to say “We are 26”
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