iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Christopher Blair

Sara Mitchell @sbmitche.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

A reminder about applications for the 2026 Journeys in World Politics workshop being due on June 1st! Please apply!

Reposted by Christopher Blair

Meghan Garrity @mmgarrity.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

Excited to announce a new Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies special issue co-edited with @harrismylonas.bsky.social: The Logics of Eliminationist Politics. @scmrjems.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/toc/cjms20/5...

tandfonline.com

Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies

The Logics of Eliminationist Politics. Volume 52, Issue 4 of Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

Never wanted Canadian citizenship more

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Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

We have just witnessed state security services execute a protestor in cold blood. If they can get away with it, we have entered a new, exceptionally dangerous stage in America’s authoritarian slide.

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Seva @seva.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

abolish ice is the moderate position to be honest. whichever candidate promises to nuremberg the ice agents has my vote at this point

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Eliot Higgins @eliothiggins.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

Move slightly to the side or murder someone, tough choices ICE officers have to make daily.

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Joshua Schwartz @joshschwartz.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

Historical analogies are omnipresent in foreign policy debates—like accusations that Trump's Russia-Ukraine peace plan is akin to appeasing Hitler. But are analogies an effective rhetorical tool? Check out my new article w/ @chriswblair.bsky.social & Paul Lendway. doi.org/10.1177/0022...

doi.org

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

I was quite pessimistic about the trajectory of American democracy in my last response to a Brightline Watch survey. Clearly I was not sufficiently pessimistic.

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Benjamin Krick @benckrick.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

Our article on civilian harm and military legitimacy is now available at @iojournal.bsky.social. We believe it has timely implications for events playing out now in the Middle East and beyond. From North Carolina to Northern Iraq, working with Jon and Mara has been a truly rewarding experience!

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Atul Gawande @agawande.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

STAGGERING: This new study of 133 countries is the first to estimate the impact of all USAID’s work. In 2 decades, it has saved *92M* lives. Current cuts, if not reversed, are forecast to cost up to *14M* lives thru 2030. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

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Daniel de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨 What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description? We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers. Two main contributions... 🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc

tinyurl.com

good_description/good_description_ddk_agb.pdf at main · ddekadt/good_description

Homepage of "Good Description" by Daniel de Kadt & Anna Grzymala-Busse - ddekadt/good_description

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

A new Trump administration policy offers cash to migrants undertaking "self-deportation." It was a pleasure to speak with @bloomberg.com on some of the potential pitfalls of this approach, building on my research on a cash-for-repatriation scheme in Pakistan www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

papers.ssrn.com

Refugee Return and Conflict: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

We estimate the causal effect of a large-scale cash assistance program for refugee returnees on conflict in Afghanistan. The program led to a significant increa

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Reposted by Christopher Blair

Jeffrey Swindle @jeffreyswindle.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

This dataset is truly awesome. Check out this example map (especially Latin America) from their report introducing the dataset. Thanks to the authors & contributors! @chriswblair.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social

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Reposted by Christopher Blair

Adam Keiper @adamkeiper.com · 14/04/2025

The most revolting Oval Office presser since Feb. 28 (the Zelensky one). Even just hitting a few of the lowlights of this will leave you sickened and dismayed. BUT it's also clarifying. Anyone who has been talking about "the road to authoritarianism" can stop that now. The road is behind us.

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Sam Wang @samwang.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

As my colleagues and I wrote in the Daily Princetonian last week, we all have to stand up for our science, and not accept this attack on universities. www.dailyprincetonian.com/article/2025...

dailyprincetonian.com

To stop intimidation, Eisgruber needs your help

When targeting one institution is a bald attempt to divide and conquer, as is the case with Columbia, it is essential for a coalition or group of institutions and individuals to stand up together.&nbs...

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Reposted by Christopher Blair

Kori Schake @kschake.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

What I feel is ashamed.

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Popehat @kenwhite.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Watching Putin’s little stooges try to bully Zelenskyy in our goddamned White House is pretty repulsive.

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

🚨🚨🚨🚨 New WP (with @benckrick.bsky.social @austinlw.bsky.social) available at the ESOC working paper series: esoc.princeton.edu/wp39

Title: Refugee Repatriation and Conflict: Evidence from the Maximum Pressure Sanctions

Abstract: How does refugee return shape conflict in migrants’ destination communities? We argue that conditions inducing repatriation bear critically on the consequences of return. When refugees return because of worsening conditions in host countries, they are often marginalized and destitute. In this setting, mass return risks amplifying conflict in returnee-receiving communities. We test this theory leveraging the Trump administration’s sudden re-imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018. These “Maximum Pressure” sanctions decimated the Iranian economy and spurred mass return of Afghan refugees from Iran. Exploiting historical returnee settlement patterns and the plausibly exogenous timing of the sanctions, we estimate the causal effect of large-scale refugee repatriation on violence. We find that the returnee influx increased insurgent violence in returnees’ destination communities. We find suggestive evidence for an opportunity cost mechanism. Sanctions-induced currency depreciation reduced household incomes in returnee-receiving areas, lowering reservation wages and driving up insurgent recruitment. We also find evidence that Iran retaliated against the sanctions by escalating support for Afghan insurgent factions. While insurgent violence increased in repatriation communities, there was no effect on communal conflict.

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

🚨🚨🚨🚨 New WP (with @benckrick.bsky.social @austinlw.bsky.social) available at the ESOC working paper series: esoc.princeton.edu/wp39

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Reposted by Christopher Blair

Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

1/ Musk seeking control over nerve systems of the federal government. As someone who spent a decade studying how centralized information systems are used for coercion this is a five alarm fire. We need to name it, identify risks, and seek to mitigate their impacts. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/u...

nytimes.com

Elon Musk’s Team Now Has Access to Treasury’s Payments System

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave Mr. Musk’s representatives at the so-called Department of Government Efficiency a powerful tool to monitor and potentially limit government spending.

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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 02/02/2025

Draw your own conclusions, but Donald Trump is not behaving like a leader who expects democratic accountability for himself or his party next year or in 2028.

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Scholars across many fields are frantically grabbing government data that’s disappearing from the public domain. Is there any forum for sharing access - like an open source, central repository - that all of us who archived data could contribute to for purposes of scholarship and public interest?

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

The new Gitmo plan is horrifying. As a research aside, I’ve got FOIA’ed data on every migrant and drug interdiction by the USCG from 1997-2017 - haven’t had much time to work with it, but I will say they patrol a huge area as far south as the Galapagos and the Colombian coast.

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Social Science Research Council @ssrc.org · 05/12/2024

In @apsrjournal.bsky.social, @sabrinabarias.bsky.social and @chriswblair.bsky.social show that individuals affected by Hurricane Ian reported increased support for climate policy action and more positive attitudes towards climate migrants for up to six months after the hurricane. bit.ly/4g5aBVq

cambridge.org

In the Eye of the Storm: Hurricanes, Climate Migration, and Climate Attitudes | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core

In the Eye of the Storm: Hurricanes, Climate Migration, and Climate Attitudes - Volume 118 Issue 4

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American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

From our new issue: "In the Eye of the Storm: Hurricanes, Climate Migration, and Climate Attitudes" by Sabrina Arias (@sabrinabarias.bsky.social) and Christopher Blair (@chriswblair.bsky.social). www.cambridge.org/core/service...

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Christopher Blair @chriswblair.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

These have to be some of the bleakest sentences ever written.

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 09/11/2024

the trump campaign was literally bought and paid for by the wealthiest people on the planet — openly! — and dim-witted pundits are going on about how voters are tired of "elitist democrats"

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Reposted by Christopher Blair

Joshua Kertzer @jkertzer.bsky.social · 08/02/2024

New in @iojournal.bsky.social w Jost @ericmin.bsky.social & Schub: We combine computational methods with uniquely rich Cold War archival evidence to study how advisers matter in foreign policy. Where advisers stand doesn't just depend on where they sit. www.cambridge.org/core/journal... polisky

Do advisers affect foreign policy and, if so, how? Recent scholarship on
elite decision making prioritizes leaders and the institutions that surround them, rather than the dispositions of advisers themselves. We argue that despite the hierarchical nature of foreign policy decision making, advisers’ predispositions regarding the use of
force shape state behavior through the counsel advisers provide in deliberations. To test our argument, we introduce an original data set of 2,685 foreign policy deliberations between US presidents and their advisers from 1947 to 1988. Applying a novel machine learning approach to estimate the hawkishness of 1,134 Cold War–era
foreign policy decision makers, we show that adviser-level hawkishness affects both the counsel that advisers provide in deliberations and the decisions leaders make: conflictual policy choices grow more likely as hawks increasingly dominate the debate, even when accounting for leader dispositions...

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