Sign in

John Kastellec

@jkastellec.bsky.social
6.3K followers 378 following 229 posts

Professor of Politics at Princeton University @Princeton . www.makingthesupremecourt.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by John Kastellec
Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 22h
There's plenty to blame Cornell here for, but the game of social media telephone has seemingly led people to think the university did nothing but mandate essays, and that it somehow prevented criminal prosecution.
5598
John Kastellec @jkastellec.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Roberts getting heckled for overturning Roe is sort of doubly ironic when you consider that the Times misreported the vote in Dobbs to overturn as 6-3. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/u...
000
Reposted by John Kastellec
Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
New from @maschwar.bsky.social Melissa Schwartzberg, in response to Danielle Allen's repeated serious misreading of the moment and of the Trump administration's bad faith with respect to higher education. www.chronicle.com/article/dani...
chronicle.com
Danielle Allen Is Wrong About Trump
Dealmaking under duress is always undemocratic.
12813
Reposted by John Kastellec
Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The last two sentences are … direct. Link: www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
36899164
Reposted by John Kastellec
Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 23/09/2026
These are still some of the most amazing graphs ever published in a political science book. From: Edward Tufte. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton University Press.
45913
John Kastellec @jkastellec.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
This reviewer comment makes me wonder what people think the purpose of a "short paper" is.
150
Reposted by John Kastellec
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Critique of state-level measures of democracy www.nationalaffairs.com/publications... I agree with many criticisms of existing measures, but mixes in various shots at the left & downplays the most serious concerns about state-level backsliding like power-stripping (NC/WI), extreme gerrymanders (WI)
nationalaffairs.com
The Myth of Democratic Backsliding in the States
Progressive critics charge that democracy is declining in Republican-led states. But a careful analysis of state-level democratic health shows that red and blue states actually score comparably, and t...
084
Reposted by John Kastellec
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I see a lot of effort to relentlessly mobilize uncertainty, measurement difficulty, ambiguity, etc in a one-sided way as if it all points in the direction of left-wing position taking being costless when all these considerations could equally point in the opposite direction.
5312
Reposted by John Kastellec
Jay Willis @jaywillis.net · 16/09/2026
It takes a special kind of Guy to look at all the circumstances of Brett Kavanaugh's career arc and reach the passive-voice conclusion that Kavanaugh "was forced" to join the Supreme Court's conservative wing. But Noah Feldman? He is that special kind of Guy. noahfeldman.substack.com/p/brett-kava...
On top of that, for years, Kavanaugh taught a popular course at Harvard Law School where he was straight down the middle, and conservative and liberal students both liked him. In fact, that’s how I met him.

Kavanaugh is personally engaging, and he enjoyed conversations with people across the whole ideological spectrum, and I think people mostly really ended up respecting him.

Then came Kavanaugh’s disastrous confirmation hearings, with the accusations by Christine Blassi Ford against him.

After Kavanaugh’s heated defense of himself and of his record, liberals pretty much turned against him. He stopped teaching the class at Harvard, he stopped teaching a class that he taught at Yale, and he began teaching only at more conservative schools.

I believe Kavanaugh really valued his ties across the ideological spectrum. The problem was that after the confirmation hearings, those connections across the spectrum were not really available to him anymore.

Justice Kavanaugh is a social person, he needs friends. But once liberals had turned against him, he really couldn’t afford to lose conservatives, because then he would have been entirely friendless — a situation not dissimilar to that experienced by Chief Justice John Roberts.

And so, as a result of the confirmation hearings, I think Kavanaugh ended up in a position where he was just forced into the conservative wing of the Court.

The result is that Kavanaugh has joined the hard right on a series of very conservative judgments, including cases like the birthright citizenship case, where his vote wasn’t even necessary for the conservative side. He cou
7959869
Reposted by John Kastellec
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 12/09/2026
The US President's new proposal to tax international students has been approved by the White House for release this week. It's an unprecedented $100,000 tax on int'l grads who stay to work after graduation on Optional Practical Training (most grads do), a crucial bridge to remaining by any channel.
21433715
Reposted by John Kastellec
Jake Anbinder @jakeanbinder.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
incidentally the "were Americans united after 9/11" debate is a good illustration of the limits of oral history
5756
Reposted by John Kastellec
American Journal of Political Science (AJPS) @ajpseditor.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Reviewing fast or slow: A theory of summary reversal in the judicial hierarchy by Alexander V. Hirsch, Jonathan P. Kastellec, and Robin A. Taboni is now available in Early View. @jkastellec.bsky.social @robintaboni.bsky.social ajps.org/2026/01/09/r...
031
Reposted by John Kastellec
Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Here's my report at Law Dork, which includes the latest news: The Missouri Supreme Court issued an order tonight to MO SOS Hoskins to show cause why he shouldn't be held in contempt. His brief is due Wednesday. Arguments are Thursday. He ordered is to attend in person. Read it all at Law Dork:
lawdork.com
Dueling rulings cause chaos over Missouri maps
By Tuesday night, Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins faced an order from the Missouri Supreme Court to show cause why he should not be held in contempt.
515542
Reposted by John Kastellec
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 01/09/2026
#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social - Are Voters Myopic or Looking for Improvement? - cup.org/4gvG85v - MARKUS PRIOR & @talbotmandrews.bsky.social #FirstView
A graphic with a green and blue background. The top green section displays the text "#OpenAccess" in white. The bottom blue section shows the text "American Political Science Review" in white.
065
Reposted by John Kastellec
Noah Zucker @noahzucker.com · 01/09/2026
Princeton Niehaus Center (@niehauscenter.bsky.social) now accepting applications for 2027–28 postdoctoral fellowships: niehaus.princeton.edu/fellowships Deadline: Thursday, October 15, 2026
niehaus.princeton.edu
Apply for our Fellowships
Apply NowThe Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance (NCGG) at Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs invites applications for postdoctoral research associates from ...
01416
Reposted by John Kastellec
Sam Bagenstos @sbagen.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I've never understood why we don't have a Presidential Records Act equivalent for the Supreme Court. The justices aren't so special. And their insistence on secrecy encourages people like Trump to resist transparency laws like the PRA.
4477116
John Kastellec @jkastellec.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/09/01/u...
nytimes.com
How the Supreme Court Locks Away Its Own History
After Justice Scalia died, the justices held private negotiations about locking away their papers. We may not see the ultimate record of the Roberts court for decades.
000
Reposted by John Kastellec
Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
I am shocked, shocked to learn that this 2002 paper by Dan Ariely is based on dubious data and doesn’t replicate. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/08/31/s...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
I am shocked, shocked to learn that this 2002 paper by Dan Ariely is based on dubious data and doesn’t replicate. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
26421
Reposted by John Kastellec
John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
More evidence out today that Dan Ariely likely fabricated data.
3257
John Kastellec @jkastellec.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Just as a descriptive matter, here's a projection of what the number of seats on the Supreme Court would look over time if each party added 2 seats every time there's a change from divided to unified government.
010
Reposted by John Kastellec
Debbie Schildkraut @debbiejsr.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Getting it out of the way before APSA (iykyk)
1478
Reposted by John Kastellec
🎃Darin S Pumpkins🎃 @darinself.com · 28/08/2026
I mean, successful people often do select on the DV and keep on having success because they don't understand how dependent upon structure they are.
0699
John Kastellec @jkastellec.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Going straight into the presentation ....
080
Reposted by John Kastellec
Adam Hilton @adhilt.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Hey all! We’re hiring at Mount Holyoke. If you are on the market this year and have a specialty in American Public Law, we’d love to hear from you. If not, please forward to someone you think is interested. Available for questions via this app, email, or in person at APSA. Thanks!
mtholyoke.wd504.myworkdayjobs.com
Assistant Professor of Politics
Job no: R-0000003578 Position Title: Assistant Professor of Politics Work Type: Faculty Full time In-Person Start Date: 07/01/2027 Job Description: The Department of Politics at Mount Holyoke College ...
01411
Reposted by John Kastellec
eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Political science jobs, sortable by subfield. poli-sci-jobs.org
poli-sci-jobs.org
Job Market Status (2026-2027) – Political Science Jobs
02617
Reposted by John Kastellec
Kyle Saunders @kylesaunders.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Here's my AI policy for Parties and Elections this semester, plus a link to my substack where I explain how I came to it in the next reply. Every assignment in my course is AI-encouraged with required disclosure or AI-prohibited (the in-person exams). Disclosure of use is never penalized.
3306
Reposted by John Kastellec
Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
This is fucking nuts - decades from now people will be asking, "what broke in 2028"
0113
Reposted by John Kastellec
Mike Masnick @masnick.com · 20/08/2026
So I get that there's (yet again) a big debate going on about AI on Bluesky. I am turning off replies to this post because I don't want to have notifications flooded one way or the other on this one. I just want to share what I've heard multiple times in just the past two weeks.
137387
Reposted by John Kastellec
Scott Lemieux @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
It's like how Harriet Miers was the best-case scenario for a W Supreme Court nominee. Given her background it was highly unlikely that she would have been another Souter, but if the alternative is Alito it's literally all upside
3797
Reposted by John Kastellec
Public Opinion Quarterly - POQ @poqjournal.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
What motivates Americans' partisanship? In POQ, Fowler et al. find that values, ideology, and policy preferences are, by far, the most common reasons people give for their party identification and their affect toward the other party. Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
2119
Reposted by John Kastellec
Sophie E. Hill @sophieehill.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
It really is amazing how researchers and journal editors will avoid showing even the most basic courtesy or gratitude to sleuths who point out errors in their work. I get that it's embarrassing, but guess what: that sleuth has read your work more closely than anyone else ever will! For free!
29116
Reposted by John Kastellec
Jake Anbinder @jakeanbinder.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Note that Barkan's plagiarism is similar in nature to Gay's (though more extensive it would seem) but there's no journalist afaik who's saying "c'mon that's not plagiarism"
281
Reposted by John Kastellec
Connor Ewing @cmewing.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
conference proposal // conference paper
1325117
Reposted by John Kastellec
Stephanie Wang @sweiwang.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
🚨Elsevier forces out Games and Economic Behavior (GEB) Editor, entire editorial board has resigned, current board only handling new submissions until Nov. 14 #econsky
    Dear Advisory Editor of GEB
    We are very sorry to be the bearers of bad news for GEB.
I learned from Elsevier on Wednesday July 28 that, contrary to my expressed willingness to continue, my 3-year contract will not be renewed.
    "Moving towards a closer alignment with Elsevier strategic priorities and publishing policies" was offered as the motive for this decision. Requests for explanations, first by me, then in a collective letter by the other six Editors, were dismissed by Elsevier which simply reaffirmed its legal power to make such decisions.
    Elsevier then started precipitously its own search for new Editors without input of the Editorial Board.
    By Friday August 14 all seven Editors have sent their resignation, requiring a 3-month advance notice.
    Therefore, we will continue to manage as before the papers currently under review and the new submissions until Saturday November 14. After this date we will only complete the evaluation of papers still waiting an editorial decision.
49065
John Kastellec @jkastellec.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/08/16/u...
nytimes.com
Could El-Sayed Cost Democrats Michigan?
Not all progressives are equal: Candidates of the activist left typically don’t perform as well as other Democrats.
020
Reposted by John Kastellec
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Everyone's dunking on this but (a) it's good if people learn; (b) Tuberville needs basic info, let's be real; and (c) a $ version of a frontier model surely provides better info about these wildly complex programs than staff off the cuff. The actual problem is ChatGPT Voice uses a dumb basic model.
19694
Reposted by John Kastellec
The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Whomst could have foreseen that pushing high school students to publish in peer reviewed journals could have had downsides? retractionwatch.com/2026/08/14/p...
retractionwatch.com
Princeton student says she did not conduct the experiments described in her now-retracted paper
A figure from the now-retracted paper in Macromolecular Materials and Engineering shows the “hypothesized effects” of the experiments described in the study. Earlier this week, Retracti…
412125
Reposted by John Kastellec
Andrew Lawrence @ndrew.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
welcome to the field of dreams, an homage to a movie revolving around men banned for life from baseball for gambling. brought to you by fanduel
313512796
Reposted by John Kastellec
David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Wisconsin is the only state in its region that never joined the ACA Medicaid expansion, in part due to a gerrymandered GOP legislature. Redder Midwestern states signed on. If Dems win it all this November that will change.
072
Reposted by John Kastellec
The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Social science has gotten massively better about data practices and replicability, and that has been a normative shift backed by financial power. Welp
1308
Reposted by John Kastellec
Garrett M. Graff @vermontgmg.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
STUNNING: Trump left the White House press corps in Turkey as a decoy to be attacked by Iran—and instead flew out on a secret plane: wapo.st/4i1OByh
wapo.st
Contradicting public statements, Trump took secret flight from Turkey amid Iranian threat
The White House said the president was aboard Air Force One as he left a NATO summit. Instead, his departure included an elaborate ruse that concealed his travel.
30733941301
Reposted by John Kastellec
Scott Lemieux @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
In the words of an eminent analytical philosopher of the contemporary academic scene . . . www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2026/08/in-t...
lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com
In the words of an eminent analytical philosopher of the contemporary academic scene . . . - Lawyers, Guns & Money
. . . I’m losing my motherfucking mind here. Jesse Singal on the apparently egregious confabulations of ex-Cambridge professor Jason Arday: If interest in this story peters out, that would be unfortun...
0132
Reposted by John Kastellec
David Elfstrom 🍁 @davidelfstrom.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
We had a human vaccine for Lyme disease in the 90's that was 80% effective. It got pulled after attacks by anti-vaccine pushback. But your dog can get one.
13748291
Reposted by John Kastellec
Gabe Lenz @gabelenz.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Codex has taken the pain out of finishing a data-heavy book. Here’s a paragraph about it. Being able to talk to your book and data files feels Star Trek-like. Link to my agent instructions below. ...
1123
John Kastellec @jkastellec.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I understand the desire and incentives for emphasizing flashy results from working papers, but, flawed as it is, peer review in top journals will often catch obvious methodological issues, especially when it comes to identification concerns and measurement issues.
130
Reposted by John Kastellec
Steven White @notstevenwhite.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I worry the implications of this are getting blown out of proportion. Do @adambonica.bsky.social and @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social really not think, for example, Hong is less likely to win WI-Gov than Crowley? Or that AES performs as well as Stevens in the general (margins, not win vs loss)?
441
John Kastellec @jkastellec.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I don't understand how one can note (correctly) in the paper that the 2.5 million vote claim is an "accounting benchmark rather than a counterfactual election result" and at the same time claim that the IRA "moved" 2.5 million votes, which is clearly a causal claim.
110
Reposted by John Kastellec
Ryan Enos @ryanenos.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Don't posit a theory that is only interesting because it implies X causes variation in Y, test for a statistical relationship between X and Y, but then say you are not interpreting causally. Of course you are interpreting it causally. That was the whole point of what you just did.
25310
Reposted by John Kastellec
Scott Lemieux @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
The great Covid bait and switch www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2026/08/the-...
lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com
The great Covid bait and switch - Lawyers, Guns & Money
I find it fascinating how the entire Covid epidemic has undergone some sort of almost Orwellian historical revisionism, and not merely among the right wing, although they are of course by far the wors...
1184