iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Tobias Rüttenauer @ruettenauer.bsky.social · 8h

Have we abandoned #TWFE too quickly?😮 New in #Sociological #Methodology w/ @aksoyundan.bsky.social We compare TWFE event studies vs dynamic #DID estimators. Results suggest a more nuanced picture than "never use TWFE" and clarify when different estimators perform well 👇 🔗 doi.org/10.1177/0081...

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Todd Jones @toddrjones.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

🚨 Public good alert: I put together a list of 100+ free datasets for social science research, spanning a large number of topics. I hope it's useful for students, researchers, and anyone looking for interesting data to explore. It's on GitHub - contributions welcome! github.com/toddrjones/d...

github.com

GitHub - toddrjones/datasets: A collection of free datasets useful for use in applied microeconomics, data visualization, etc.

A collection of free datasets useful for use in applied microeconomics, data visualization, etc. - toddrjones/datasets

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Daniel Lakens @lakens.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Researchers often can't increase the size of their sample (e.g., due to research constraints). In my paper on sample size justification I discuss approaches to increase power without increasing the sample size (e.g., within designs, reducing variability) lakens.github.io/statistical_...

lakens.github.io

8 Sample Size Justification – Improving Your Statistical Inferences

This open educational resource contains information to improve statistical inferences, design better experiments, and report scientific research more transparently.

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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

We really need to make Meng's Big Data Paradox central to teaching, don't we? Researchers don't know this stuff bc they have never been exposed to it. But it is fundamental. (Link to paper PDF statistics.fas.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...)

3. Compensating for quality with quantity is a doomed game.
3.1. A law of large populations? Under a probabilistic sampling, a central
driving force for the stochastic behaviors of the sample mean (and alike) is the
sample size n. This is the case for the Law of Large Numbers (LLN) and for the
Central Limit Theorem (CLT), two pillars of theoretical statistics, and of much of
applied statistics because we rely on LLN and CLT to build intuitions, heuristic
arguments, or even models. However, identity (2.3) implies that once we lose control of probabilistic sampling, then the driving force behind the estimation error is
no longer the sample size n, but rather the population size N. Specifically, (2.3)
and (2.5) together imply that
(3.1) Zn,N ≡ Gn − GN

VSRS(Gn)
= ρR,G1−f
f σG
1−f
n S2
G
= √
N − 1ρR,G.

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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 12/10/2026

#OpenAccess from @jepsjournal.bsky.social - Covariate Adjustment in Political Science Experiments: Progress and Recommendations - cup.org/4B2hTUw - Matthew H. Graham & Binh Hoang #FirstView

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Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

⛪️ Does a politician's religiosity influence their policymaking? ➡️ Luca Vitale finds that narrowly elected religious Catholic mayors in Italy increase debt repayment, showing how religious values can shape politicians' fiscal decisions doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

"In the past month, 41% of voters reported getting political information from AI search summaries and 17% said they had used a chatbot to get information about politics or elections." Important datapoint. But notes chatbots also one piece in a mix of sources. caucusai.substack.com/p/new-survey...

caucusai.substack.com

New survey data: who’s using which chatbots and how they’re (not yet) a primary source of political information for voters

As we head into the final stretch of the 2026 midterms, what role is AI actually playing in how voters are making up their minds?

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Christina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Presenting at #ECPRGC26 in Kraków tomorrow! Where do parties hang their campaign posters? @klingelt.bsky.social and I walked every street of Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg during the 2025 Bundestag election and collected 6,800+ photos, 10,000+ posters. THU 9:00–10:45, Room 08 @ecpr.bsky.social

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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Several interesting job openings now at the European Commission Joint Research Centre in Ispra, Italy, including two Quantitative Policy Analysts: one in survey data and one in impact evaluation. recruitment.jrc.ec.europa.eu/vacancies

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Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐲𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐭 v0.7.0 now available on CRAN 🎉 This is big release, with loads of new features. Same tiny footprint, though ;-) Short highlight thread below, borrowing examples from our gallery: grantmcdermott.com/tinyplot/vig...

https://github.com/grantmcdermott/tinyplot/blob/main/vignettes/gallery_figs/bubble-quakes.R

https://github.com/grantmcdermott/tinyplot/blob/main/vignettes/gallery_figs/simpsons-paradox.R

https://github.com/grantmcdermott/tinyplot/blob/main/vignettes/gallery_figs/barplot-meat.R

https://github.com/grantmcdermott/tinyplot/blob/main/vignettes/gallery_figs/spineplot-titanic.R

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Rachel Porter @rachelporter.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

“Just collect more data” is one of the most common responses to uncertainty in quantitative research. But in a lot of social science, that advice is impossible—or even misleading. Our new working paper asks: when has a study reached its information limit? Check it out here: osf.io/preprints/so...

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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

@yiqingxu.bsky.social, Jens Hainmueller and Avi Acharya have a cool paper to get political scientists to just fit structural choice models to their choice survey experiments! yiqingxu.org/papers/2026_...

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Stephen Turner @stephenturner.us · 23/03/2026

A One-Page Primer on: Statistical Power from @carlislerainey.bsky.social www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...

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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Ok now this paper looks amazing. By @jbenmenachem.com and coauthors, forthcoming in Sociological Methods and Research.

"Rethinking Repeatability in Observational Social Science" by Jonathan Ben-Menachem, Ari Galper, and Nic Fishman.

Abstract: Sociology has remained relatively insulated from debates about the ‘replication crisis.’ Heeding calls to consider replication more deeply, we introduce a distinction between two types of research reforms that have emerged in the wake of the crisis: specification-restricting reforms and specification-expanding reforms. Specification-restricting reforms—the more popular of the two—aim to increase the repeatability of research findings by controlling false positives. We show how these reforms’ internal logic breaks down outside of randomized experiments; in observational contexts, they risk enshrining fragile or misspecified models. We further argue that the premise of these reforms is flawed. Replication rates cannot be reduced to the purported prevalence of false positive findings. In their place, we propose a replication framework cen- tered on specification-expanding reforms, stronger incentives for confirmatory research, and meta-analysis. This approach equips sociology to assess the repeatability of findings and build a more cumulative discipline.

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Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

Writing simulations in DeclareDesign just went from "I should do that, but it's kind of a lot of work" to extremely easy

Screenshot of claude just writing a design no trouble

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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

New w/@scottclifford.bsky.social. Lots of work uses agree-disagree scales, and a lit review shows these are 1) frequently just measured in one direction (agree = higher trait) and 2) correlated with each other. This has potentially big issues for conclusions. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

link.springer.com

Acquiescence Bias and Criterion Validity: Problems and Potential Solutions for Agree-Disagree Scales - Political Behavior

Political Behavior - Scholars frequently measure dispositions like populism, conspiracism, racism, and sexism by asking survey respondents whether they agree or disagree with statements...

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Dirk Hovy @dirkhovy.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

🚨(Software) Update: In my PhD, I had a side project to fix an annoying problem: when you ask 5 people to label the same thing, you often get different answers. But in ML (and lots of other analyses), you still need a single aggregated answer. Using the majority vote is easy–but often wrong. 1/N

github.com

GitHub - dirkhovy/MACE: Multi-Annotator Competence Estimation tool

Multi-Annotator Competence Estimation tool. Contribute to dirkhovy/MACE development by creating an account on GitHub.

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 14/01/2026

I built this for fun. Not really sure what to do with it. Maybe it will be useful to people trying to understand polling. Might even be a decent teaching example. (Feedback welcome. I am not a web designer, please be kind.) poll-simulator.netlify.app

poll-simulator.netlify.app

Polling Simulator - How do polls work?

Explore how random error and methodological choices shape the results of political polls.

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Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

Want to get the data out of a PDF figure? As in, the actual data – not a rough trace-along-the-lines version? I made an app you might like: adamkucharski.github.io/pdf2plot/ It all started a few years ago... 🧵

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

Very interesting new study using CES data from Scott Platte and @bfschaffner.bsky.social new in @psrm.bsky.social www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Yamil Ricardo Velez @yamilrvelez.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

As @seanjwestwood.bsky.social's terrifying new PNAS article demonstrates, LLMs can now pass almost every attention check, mirror personas, stay consistent across pages, and systematically bias responses in the aggregate. So here’s a different angle: verify physical presence, not text.

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Jessica Hullman @jessicahullman.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Many think LLM-simulated participants can transform behavioral science. But there's been a lack of accessible discussion of what it means to validate LLMs for behavioral scientists. Under what conditions can we trust LLMs to learn about human parameters? Our paper maps the validation landscape. 1/

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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

Cool new tool to check if your references contain retraction risks. www.retractionrisk.com

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Sarah Brierley @sarahbrierley.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

I am hiring a post-doctoral fellow (2 years) to work on all things political finance in Africa. There are no teaching obligations, and lots of opportunities for fieldwork. A PhD in Political Science is a requirement. Please spread the word! Happy to answer questions - send them to my LSE email.

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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 09/12/2025

Big new blogpost! My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more. --> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...

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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

Survey experiments' popularity in political science is getting attention. What is good and bad about them? How can one maximize their benefits and mitigate their downsides? Greg Huber and I wrote up our thoughts: Paywalled: doi.org/10.1016/bs.h... Free: m-graham.com/papers/Huber...

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Jeff Ziegler @jeffreymziegler.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Lots of concern about ⬆️ of survey experiments as signal of “credible causal evidence”, but I’m genuinely curious: what’s the alternative if we study trends that happen rarely, are hard to measure, or lack data? Causality aside, seems like surveys and/or experiments are an incredibly useful tool?

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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

"The Credibility Revolution in Political Science" osf.io/preprints/so...

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Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

Readable, Reliable, Reusable: A Guide to Clean #rstats Code jacciz.github.io/portfolio/pr... Lots of good advice in this post. Too bad one (better, I) keeps forgetting about some practices in the process and follow bad practices

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apoorva lal @handle.invalid · 26/11/2025

handy little data hoarder tool i built and deployed for myself but others might find useful lalten.org/linkpull/ 1) academic or govt site with a bunch of hyperlinks 2) write a regex to grab all links matching a pattern in said url, copy and paste into file 3) download with wget or curl

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Matt Martin @mattjmartin.com · 20/11/2025

The new Comparative Constitutions Project website is now live! Developed by yours truly. We're also releasing version 5.0 of our Constitutional Chronology and Constitutional Characteristics datasets, updated through 2023. Explore and download: comparativeconstitutionsproject.org

comparativeconstitutionsproject.org

Comparative Constitutions Project

Producing data about constitutions. Impacting the constitution-making process. Promoting peace, justice, and human development.

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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

UCD Graduate Studies and I have produced a Research Group Handbook template for supervisors and researchers. The template outlines core topics, resources, and policies that groups can adapt to their needs. ➡️ Template and details: www.ucd.ie/graduatestud... @ucddublin.bsky.social 1/2

Poster on building community through a reserach group handbook, presented at the 2025 All-Island Research Culture Network Conference in Belfast.

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Jeff Ziegler @jeffreymziegler.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

⏰ ⏰ Final call! Submit your abstract for PolMeth - Europe 2026 by Nov 15th here: polmeth.eu. Don’t miss the chance to share your research and connect with other world-class scholars ☺️

polmeth.eu

PolMeth Europe 2026

Conference website for European PolMeth meeting on 7-8 May 2026, hosted by TCD.

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Hadley Wickham @hadley.nz · 13/11/2025

testthat 3.3.0 out now! This is a massive release with tons of improvements including better failure messages, new expectations, improved snapshotting, new vignettes, and much much more: tidyverse.org/blog/2025/11... Post includes some thoughts on developing an #rstats package with Claude Code.

tidyverse.org

testthat 3.3.0

testthat 3.3.0 brings improved expectations with better error messages, new expectations for common testing patterns, and lifecycle changes including the removal of `local_mock()` and `with_mock()`. I...

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Jeff Ziegler @jeffreymziegler.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

Conference deadlines have habit of sneaking up. This is your friendly reminder that the call for applications is still open for PolMeth - Europe. Don’t let yourself suffer from FOMO, and come to Dublin this coming May!

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Public Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

"While testing one dimension at a time can yield simple results, those effects may not generalise to richer, real-world contexts." Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson! Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...

poal.co.uk

Public Opinion Analytics Lab

The website of the Public Opinion Analytics Lab

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Jeff Ziegler @jeffreymziegler.bsky.social · 04/11/2025

A little less than 2 weeks to submit an abstract proposal for PolMeth - Europe. Join us in Dublin this coming May to share your new political science research using cutting edge methods!!

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Jeff Ziegler @jeffreymziegler.bsky.social · 02/11/2025

I cannot stress this enough to my own students, you cannot outsource your own learning!!

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Jeff Ziegler @jeffreymziegler.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

Super interesting, wasn’t aware of other elections that put up candidate posters like this during campaigns! I’ve got an ongoing project collecting candidate posters and locations in Ireland, do you know if there’s a similar effort in Denmark?

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Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

My own TLDR for the message from this paper: statsepi.substack.com/p/sorry-what...

You aren't allowed to say “risk factor”

People often say their goal is to identify “risk factors”. But what does that mean? Some people use the term to indicate potential causes of outcomes. Then just say cause. Others use it to identify predictors of outcomes. Then just say predict. And, sadly, too many others use it as shorthand for factors that are “statistically associated” with outcomes. In this case, say nothing at all, since this “goal” has no clinical utility whatsoever (beyond what it might suggest about causation or prediction). So once you have framed your research question as description, prediction, causation or measurement, there is no longer a need to talk about risk factors. It's basically just a catch-all phrase to cover up muddy thinking.

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Jeff Ziegler @jeffreymziegler.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

Submit, submit! 🚨 Pleasant reminder to all, the 5th European PolMeth meeting will be 14-15 May 2026 at Trinity College Dublin 🇮🇪 Submissions close Nov. 15 ⚠️ You can find out more about the conference, including the submission form, here: polmeth.eu If you have any questions, please contact me 😀

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LSE Methodology @lsemethodology.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

Not long left to apply for our Assistant Professor in Computational Social Science vacancy❗ 📚 jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/... Apply before 26 October and join an internationally outstanding group of social science methodologists 🌎

we're hiring assistant professor in computational social science, applications close 26/10/2025

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Catherine E. de Vries @catherinedevries.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

Every academic career is built on rejection, but we don’t show it.  CVs list publications, grants & awards, not rejected manuscripts, unfunded proposals, or failures.  But those invisible rejections shape us more than our successes ever do. 👉 catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/fail-bette... 🧵

catherineeunicedevries.substack.com

Fail Better: Why Your Rejections Will Shape You More Than Your Publications

The Art of Learning from Rejection

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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 13/10/2025

#OpenAccess from August 2025 - Not Getting the Message on Climate? Attention as a Key Barrier to Mass-Marketing Experimentally-Validated Messages - cup.org/3HgDIJ9 - Nicholas Carnes & Geoffrey L. Henderson #ClimateChange

BJPolS abstract discussing the challenges and strategies of survey-based political messaging, focusing on direct mail campaigns and their impact on public attitude towards climate change.

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Fabio Votta📊🐧 @favstats.eu · 11/10/2025

🚀 And this marks our launch of the CampAIgn Tracker 🇳🇱! @meinungsfuehrer.bsky.social and I are glad to finally publish our dashboard where we monitor the use of AI imagery in campaign messages, by parties, politicians & other actors during the election #tk2025 See here www.campaigntracker.nl/en/

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