iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Friends, you've been submitting great proposals for this project and we're now coming up to capacity. We're closing proposals on April 15th; please send yours in!

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Feel free to borrow/steal---the source is here: github.com/pos5747/notes The goal is a *still relevant* course on parametric models that can sit alongside a course on more agnostic methods for causal inference. *These are in-progress and written in the pre-Claude Code era.

github.com

GitHub - pos5747/notes: Notes for POS 5747

Notes for POS 5747. Contribute to pos5747/notes development by creating an account on GitHub.

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Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 01/04/2026

You guys @carlislerainey.bsky.social has a free textbook online and it seems really useful pos5747.github.io/notes/

A screenshot showing:
Introduction

These are notes for my class on probability models. In these notes, I walk through the concepts and computation that support modern probability modeling in political science using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches.

The Goal

There are many excellent books on probability models. But I felt the need to write my own. Why? I saw three problems.

First, some classes assign a huge textbook. It might be possible for the strongest and most motivated students to become familiar with the range of topics covered in these textbook, but impossible to master. Instead, these textbooks seem like references, something you’re supposed to constantly be referring back to throughout your career. I know this because many of these books have instructors’ guides that suggest what should be covered in a single semester, what should be skipped, and how one might jump around. Instead, I want a book that students can work through beginning to end and master each idea.
Second, some classes assign a variety of sections from several books and a collection of articles. But then the story told in the readings isn’t coherent. The styles are changing, the author’s tastes are changing, and the notation is changing. Switching among authors can feel like whiplash when learning a difficult subject. Instead, I want a book that tells a continuous story with consistent style, tastes, and notation.
Third, some classes assign readings that support the lecture material, without exact alignment between the two. For better or worse, the content covered by the instructor in class feels like the most important material. Thus, I want a book that exactly aligns with the material I cover in class.

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Stephen Turner @stephenturner.us · 23/03/2026

A One-Page Primer on: Statistical Power from @carlislerainey.bsky.social www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

I think three things are almost certain to happen when one writes in a new area: 1. The paper is more innovative, which makes it harder to sell 2. The paper is worse, because one doesn't know the conventions 3. The paper takes longer, because everything is new 4. Others struggle to find the work

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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Put together a quick starter pack for political methodologists (broadly defined) who have made their way over to BlueSky. If I've missed folks, please let me know! go.bsky.app/JBavA7x

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Justin Kirkland @jhkirkland1.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

This paper (and its working versions before it) have probably done more to reorient my thinking about design than anything else I've read. Just really critical work for political science to think about in any type of hypothesis testing environment. Well done to this team.

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

I'm chairing methods this year. I'm looking forward to putting together some great panels. Submit your papers! Deadline is Sept. 15!

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

I'm chairing methods this year. I'm looking forward to putting together some great panels. Submit your papers! Deadline is Sept. 15!

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Max Kagan @maxkagan.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

Excellent reference for those, like me, who can always benefit from a refresher on statistical power

osf.io

OSF

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 18/08/2025

New Post: "For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power" Add content on statistical power to your social science courses. Not just to methods courses. For substantive courses, Bloom's MDE (i.e., 80% power to detect 2.5*SE) is easy to teach and really helpful! www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2025-08...

carlislerainey.com

For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power – Carlisle Rainey

Five papers you can assign when teaching about statistical power: power analysis, minimum detectable effects, sample size planning, and design diagnosis.

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 18/08/2025

carlislerainey.com

For Your Syllabus: Statistical Power – Carlisle Rainey

Five papers you can assign when teaching about statistical power: power analysis, minimum detectable effects, sample size planning, and design diagnosis.

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

‼️Cool new paper‼️ Finds that journal data policies in psychology boost sharing statements to ~100%, but only about half of datasets are complete, understandable, reusable. Open: open.lnu.se/index.php/me...

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Cyrus Samii @cdsamii.bsky.social · 10/06/2025

An old boss once told me “each sentence should carry one idea and one idea only.” Good, Strunk and White-esque advice.

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 09/06/2025

What’s the single best piece of feedback you’ve ever received on your writing—something that stuck with you and shaped how you write future papers?

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

I’d say pose a question to the class, ask students to brainstorm as individuals for 1 minute, discuss in groups of 3 for 3-5 minutes, and then discuss as a whole class.

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Derek Willis @dwillis.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

Assign students to ask class-related questions and grade them on the quality/depth of those questions. Provide the feedback and use the questions to help shape what you do in the classroom. Hard to scale above 35-40 students, but has been super helpful to me.

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Sara Mitchell @sbmitche.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

1. We have a tendency to make things easier for students these days, but the more you demand, the more you will get back from the students (on average). 2. There is no teaching style that is best. Find what works for you and improve it over time.

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Sibel Oktay @sibeloktay.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

1- Use real world examples. 2- Unpopular opinion: done in moderation, edutainment is not a bad approach. It breaks monotony and maintains engagement.

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Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

1. Increasing the number of assigned readings typically has little if any relationship to the extent of reading that will happen, so focus on interesting assignments if you want to add to the course expectations. 2. Don’t be afraid to say “I don’t know but I’ll look into it.”

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Avishay BSG (Ben-Sasson-Gordis) @avishaybsg.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

Every single time, ask yourself what is the point of THIS talk to THIS audience, and then do something with the answer

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

Let's talk about teaching. Suppose you must give a room full of professors one piece of actionable advice to improve their teaching. What advice would you give? Could be about lectures, activities, assignments, policies, etc. Rules 1. Quote w/ your advice 2. Bonus for unpopular opinions

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 In the social sciences, we over-value causal inference. As a result, we have an imbalance of evidence: ① too many good estimates of irrelevant causal effects ② too little good description of the world

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 03/06/2025

Top 15 ggplot2 extensions, by downloads during the last month. Some surprises here, at least for me. #rstats Code: gist.github.com/carl...

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

“Does Threat Cause Increases in Conservatism? Evidence from Three Large Experiments in the United States Says No” From Abigail Cassario, Mark Brandt, and Aymin Triki PsyArXiv Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 01/06/2025

I just updated my post on equivalence testing with {marginaleffects} so that it's consistent with the latest version. (Some of the notes and code were outdated.) www.carlislerainey.com/blog/2023-08...

carlislerainey.com

Equivalence Tests with {marginaleffects}

Reproducing the Clark and Golder (2006) example from Rainey (2014)

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

Regular Reminder Please don’t interpret a “statistically insignificant” variable (i.e., p > 0.05) as having “no effect.” Instead, check whether the 90% CI excludes all meaningful effects. Journal: onlinelibrary.wiley.... PDF: www.carlislerainey.c...

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 30/05/2025

“The pivot penalty in research” This paper claims that when scientists switch research topics, their new work usually gets less attention, is less likely to be published, and has lower real-world impact. Journal: www.nature.com/artic...

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 29/05/2025

"Improving the Teaching of Applied Statistics: Putting the Data Back into Data Analysis" from Singer and Willet jstor: www.jstor.org/stable... 👇good👍 1️⃣real data 2️⃣context info 3️⃣interesting 4️⃣teaches something real 5️⃣allows many methods 6️⃣raw 7️⃣case ID

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

"What Good is a Regression? Inference to the Best Explanation and the Practice of Political Science Research" from Spirling and Stewart journal: doi.org/10.1086/734280

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 27/05/2025

"The value of preregistration for psychological science: A conceptual analysis" from Lakens paper: www.jstage.jst.go.jp...

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 26/05/2025

"Preregistration does not improve the transparent evaluation of severity in Popper’s philosophy of science or when deviations are allowed" preprint: osf.io/preprints/met...

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

"Social media consensus paper causes social media uproar" link: www.science.org/cont... original paper: osf.io/preprints/psy...

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

new preprint "On the Foundations of the Design-Based Approach" from Aronow, Jang, and Offer-Westort

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 20/05/2025

From Weingast's essay "Caltech Rules": "Papers must focus on one main point. Do not attempt to enrich your paper with many asides... It is far better to have a narrow, focused, and useful paper than a rich one that is ignored." Link to essay: weingast.people.stan...

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 19/05/2025

From Weingast's essay "Caltech Rules" "With rare exceptions, papers do not write themselves. Transforming a good idea into a good paper is a difficult process. A clear understanding of what each part of your paper must accomplish is essential to this process." Link to essay weingast.people.stan...

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 11/05/2025

Zack Elkins (@zachelkins.bsky.social) compiled a wonderful collection of perspectives on academic writing (esp. as a political scientists). I use it often. His page: sites.google.com/site/zachelk... I made a backup here as well, so nothing is lost: github.com/carlislerain...

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Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

Currently in FirstView: In “The Limits (and Strengths) of Single-Topic Experiments,” @scottclifford.bsky.social & @carlislerainey.bsky.social examine the generalizability of single-topic studies, focusing on how often confidence intervals capture treatment effects from a larger population of studies

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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

I'm heading the Methodology section for #SPSA2026 Jan 14-17 in New Orleans. I want to recruit an awesome set of papers and panels. The deadline is Sep 1, but think about coming to New Orleans, realize you can't miss this opportunity, and put it on the calendar right now.

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Mark Rubin @markrubin.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Theorizing as Problem-Solving “We provide a practical tool for developing research programs in a recursive five-phase approach…” New article by Bhardwaj and colleagues: www.researchgate.net/profile/Akhi...

The growth of knowledge in strategic management hinges on developing novel research programs. However, the path from the discovery to the justification of research programs is fraught with hazards – most research directions that scholars pursue are unlikely to be fruitful. This paper introduces the logic of pursuit to strategy science to aid researchers in navigating these hazards and ascertaining whether they should continue working on a particular line of inquiry. Specifically, this paper considers theorizing as a problem-solving activity. It provides a five-phase trial-and-error approach that focuses on resolving doubt generated by anomalies and a lack of understanding of complex phenomena. At each phase of this journey, non-empirical indicators such as the economy of research guide scholars on whether to pursue their research program or to try alternative paths. Research programs that effectively address the problem they were devised are considered highly warranted and worthy of pursuit.
Keywords: abduction; logic of pursuit; problem formulation; pragmatism; theorizing

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Ingo Rohlfing @ingorohlfing.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Data and Code Availability in Political Science Publications from 1995 to 2022 feat @carlislerainey.bsky.social #MetaScience doi.org/10.1017/S104... Insightful descriptive analysis showing code and data availability increases exponentially. In absolute terms, availabilty is modest at best w 31% 1/

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Klaus Pforr @klauspforr.eurosky.social · 28/04/2025

Paper by @carlislerainey.bsky.social @harleyroe.bsky.social Qing Wang and Hao Zhou shows increase of data and code availability in polsci from 1995 to 2022 has reached 31%. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Figure 1 Percentage of Quantitative Articles with Reproduction Archives, 1995–2022

This figure shows the estimated percentage of quantitative research articles published in political science journals from 1995 to 2022 that supply reproduction archives.

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