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Anton Strezhnev

@astrezh.bsky.social
4.7K followers 3.9K following 1.5K posts

Assistant Professor, UW-Madison Political Science. www.antonstrezhnev.com

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Reposted by Anton Strezhnev
Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 20h
Social science should be more open with the fact that novelty is smaller and smaller and more constructed. In like 1950, you could be like "we don't know how congressional committees work here is my book on congressional committees". Not the case now.
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Jeffrey Wooldridge @jmwooldridge.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In case anyone is interested, here is a new working paper on non-binary treatments with staggered interventions. Essentially, I show under what assumptions it is valid to estimate cohort x time dose-response functions. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
A Heterogeneous Slopes Approach to Difference-in-Differences with Non-Binary Treatments
I extend the approach of Wooldridge (2023, 2025) to allow for heterogeneous gains to treatment in the context of staggered interventions for non-binary treatmen
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Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
As I keep saying, professional influencers are petty bourgeois entrepreneurs who make their money by harvesting attention, and that position in the capitalist economy tends to lend itself to a certain kind of politics.
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
“Moderates?!¯\_(ツ)_/¯”
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Of all the days to drop a p(doom) reference when teaching Bayes’ rule
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
“Nostalgia is a trap that makes us live in a past that never existed” I say as I hit pre-order on World of Warcraft: Forever.
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Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
This is going to make me sound old and maybe a little nostalgic but it’s really striking how in the Trump era, no one even pretends to debate about policy anymore.
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Cooper Lund @cooperlund.online · 12/09/2026
If I may - I think this is a symptom of YouTube creator culture being a cargo cult where people just adopt the form of whatever seems to please the algorithm. It’s why everyone makes That Face.
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Sitcom People @sitcompeople.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
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BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
would you let Tethus, Lord of the Lower Air, advise you on your relationship with your spouse? no, but he can sort your books (pdfs) for you.
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Might be nice to give an upper bound - “I am confident that it won’t definitely not happen…”
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Colin Carlson @colincarlson.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
My 2c: we need non-AI-industry-koolaid framing devices. If you drop "superintelligence" and just start with "billions of dollars are being spent on the singular objective of releasing self-editing computer viruses onto the internet, and that will have consequences," seems consequential and solvable!
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GOLIKEHELLMACHINE @golikehellmachine.com · 09/09/2026
if anything, be mad at these companies because they are incompetently run and hire for connections and collegiate pedigree instead of actual talent or ability and pay young and inexperienced people stupid fortunes to do entry level work, because i think this is true of them as well
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hikikomorphism @hikikomorphism.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I'm constantly talking about LLMs as text elementals and hungry ghosts trapped in jars and nobody's called me out for LLM psychosis once, I can only conclude that the correct stance is mythologizing the things instead of anthropomorphizing them
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
That shot from First Reformed
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Just everyone get to work. Stop proclaiming things. Show me your neat projects without attaching some smug superiority to it
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
This is cool but I think an over-use of RD - CEF really looks like it curves at the cut point. But why do we expect a jump? Impact is probably higher for internal locations - so the relevant treatment intensity isn’t at 0.
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Do they make the bears wear hard hats?
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The Mall Krampus @themallkrampus.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Unfortunately for Trump the name of Lake Ontario is very clearly enshrined in something more sacrosanct than large hunks of the US Constitution and Federal Code: the lyrics of "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald"
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Purple Rose of Cairo/Last Action Hero/Stranger than Fiction/Inkheart/etc… - You shouldn’t anthropomorphize the bots but “narratives escaping into the real world” is a pretty good model for this.
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Colin @colin-fraser.net · 27/08/2026
I also continue to believe that my mental model is the best one, which does not conceptualize the “agents” as discrete entities, but rather as the protagonists in a story that the LLM has been trained to write about a cool little guy who goes on hacker adventures.
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Stephanie Carvin @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Again, the lesson for Canada fron the tariffs - but also the EU, the Indo-Pacific and any other region looking to do business with the U.S. - is that the tools have been taken out, this will not end with Trump.
Picture of a tweet of Gavin Newsome saying he won’t necessarily rescind tariffs on Canada or other countries but says he will be nicer.
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Andrew Trexler @atrexler.com · 26/08/2026
UW-Madison Poli Sci has THREE searches for TT assistant professors: Environmental politics: go.wisc.edu/1gk366 Chinese politics: go.wisc.edu/847082 American political thought: go.wisc.edu/lfwg6o I am not on any of the search committees, but happy to chat about the dept/UW/Madison/etc at APSA!
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
sorry but this is the most obviously entirely-AI-generated op-ed ever. It has an "it's not X, it's Y" construction in both the first 2 paragraphs. Pangram has it as 100% AI. One of the most prominent billionaires in finance submitted this? The WSJ allowed it to run? are there no standards anymore?
The Treasury Department announced on Aug. 19 that it would double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, aimed at the 10- to 30-year sector and running from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. The announcement came after the 30-year yield touched a 19-year high. Yields fell within minutes. By the next afternoon they had round-tripped to levels above where they started. The market’s verdict was swift and correct: This wasn’t liquidity management, it was price management—and a mistake far larger than $4 billion suggests.

Treasury’s announcement gave the game away. It justified the larger operations as liquidity support in sectors with “consistent strong sponsorship from market participants,” but strong sponsorship is the definition of a healthy, working market. There were no failed auctions, no dealer balance-sheet seizure, no forced unwinds, nothing resembling Treasurys in March 2020 or U.K. gilts in September 2022, the sort of genuine dysfunctional episodes that justify official action. Volatility was contained, and trading was orderly—not a malfunction but the machine doing its job.a screenshot of Pangram showing the article is 100% AI
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 24/08/2026
Actually, they tried to implement a function for THE standard error but got into trademark trouble with Ohio State University.
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Is InfoWars like the Lament Configuration where whoever owns it just becomes a conspiracy theorist?
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GPT-Ern Malley @denam.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Many Democrats are deeply uncomfortable with getting Free Trade in the divorce and keep trying to find a way to toss it back.
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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
The 𝚝𝚒𝚗𝚢𝚝𝚊𝚋𝚕𝚎 0.18.0 📦 for #RStats is out! The new version is faster, has lots of bug fixes, and some beat new features. Check it out if you need a dead simple, ultra-flexible, and dep-free package to draw tables: (interactive) html, typ, tex, pdf, and png. vincentarelbundock.github.io/tinytable
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Just because this argument is coming up again. Its actually a really bad statement to go "i cant believe we attacked our closest friend and ally. Think about the higher prices!"
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BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
I don't think we should accept fundamentally right-wing framings about how people who work in offices don't have real jobs and are unmanly.
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ACARS Drama @acarsdrama.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Air to Ground Message: WOW... UNBELIEVABLE THX 4 THE INFO Area: Blaine, MN, USA Type: Airbus A220-100 A: #a85c861ad87 F: #f0028cacbc1
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Casaubon @zas.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Obviously true but then the question becomes "why did watergate matter when J6 didn't?" and the answer is "holy fuck almost everyone is more evil or cynical now especially the media" and well. I still don't know what to do about that.
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
IMO, post-2024 has revealed that the moral vacuousness of the median American voter is rivaled only by the moral vacuousness of the median American elite.
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Thomas Renault @thomasrenault.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
🚨Our new paper on generative AI and researcher productivity is now out in @pnas.org A 🧵 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The academic equivalent of the "Forbes 30 under 30" to "convicted for wire fraud" pipeline
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Daniel de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
I have read this Response to my Comment and have written a Rejoinder, showing three things: 1. The multiverse is many correlated tests. 2. The randomization inference is wrong. 3. The trichotomous moderator reaffirms my point. I also enumerate 7 misleading claims, now in print in the APSR.
A Rejoinder to ‘Still Instrumentally Inclusive’ (Turnbull-Dugarte & López Ortega)
Daniel de KadtCornell University, Department of Governmentdekadt@cornell.edu
2026-08-01
Abstract Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega’s “Still Instrumentally Inclusive” (the Response) answers my replication (the Comment) of their 2024 American Political Science Review paper (the Article) with, among other things, a multiverse of 2,970 analyses based on eighteen different weighting schemes, randomization inference, and a trichotomous moderator. As I show in this rejoinder, each is undermined by bona fide errors in their code, their writing, and their interpretation. First, the multiverse is just many correlated variants of the same test. This is in large part due to the weighting schemes which suffer multiple problems (some due to code errors, some intrinsic), and are largely correlated variations on one weighting scheme. Second, due to code errors the randomization inference compares a weighted statistic against an unweighted null and, in the two heterogeneity tests, permutes the interaction column rather than treatment assignment column. Every permutation p-value the Response reports is therefore computed against the wrong reference distribution; when they are recomputed correctly, two of the five it reports as significant are no longer so, and they are the two the Response emphasizes. Third, the trichotomous moderator is erroneously described as terciles, but it is in fact based on non-tercile cutpoints. The key subgroup effect reported in the Response thus rests on comparing just thirty high-weight control respondents against thirty-one high-weight treated respondents, and ends up reaffirming my original point that the heterogeneity in study 2 is with respect to weights, and not immigration sentiment as their theory predicts. I close by documenting seven claims in the Response that are untrue or misleading.
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Dan Sheehan @dansheehan.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Goddamn, RIP. I was introduced to his stuff after seeing the all-time melancholy classic ONCE in high school and getting sent down a massive wormhole of what was already a massive career all those years ago. So awful to see him go so young.
nytimes.com
Glen Hansard, Frontman of Irish Band the Frames, Dies at 56
The Irish singer-songwriter, who won an Oscar for the song “Falling Slowly” from the movie “Once,” died in a motorcycle crash.
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SE Gyges @segyges.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
solid insight and absolute madness have distressingly similar style signatures
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Our paper on the electoral benefits of Trump's ag payments is out now at the Journal of Public Economics. authors.elsevier.com/c/1nWEVAlwA2... tl;dr - We use the natural experiment from 2019's massive increase in spending to compare 2020 Trump vote in over-compensated vs. under-compensated counties.
The political benefits of the monoculture: Estimating the electoral effect of the market facilitation program

Does the distribution of government transfers affect elections? We analyze a natural experiment in the 2019 wave of the US Department of Agriculture’s Market Facilitation Program (MFP). The 2019 MFP allocated $14.5 billion via a formula combining historical production data and commodity-specific trade damages. We show how a methodological quirk resulted in arbitrary variation in these damages that propagated through the formula into excessive county-level compensation rates. We estimate the effects of this payment shock using a novel, design-based, randomization inference approach to account for complex dependencies across US counties. We find that counties receiving greater compensation rates, on average, have higher two-party Republican presidential vote shares in the 2020 election. Instrumenting for actual 2019 MFP disbursements, we find an additional $1 million in payments to a county increased that county’s 2020 two-party Trump vote share by about .18 percentage points on average. Had the 2019 MFP maintained the spending levels of the 2018 wave, we estimate that Candidate Trump’s two-party vote share would have been .117 percentage points lower nationally, with particularly pronounced effects in swing states like Arizona (.41 percentage points) and Georgia (.159 percentage points).
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In Medias Malone @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
A better world is possible! As is a worse one
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Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
A court might be reluctant to overturn Trump's new "Section 301" tariffs, but that doesn't mean they're actually legitimate. My latest for @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social explains the case's biggest flaws: thedispatch.com/newsletter/d... tl;dr:
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Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Tumbling down Tumbling down Tumbling down
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Chris Kenny, PhD @chriskenny.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Thrilled to share that I received POLMETH's Statistical Software Award for 2026 for the #rstats package geomander. It's a performant toolkit for working with spatial data, especially election and demographic data. Learn more about the package at christophertkenny.com/geomander/
christophertkenny.com
Geographic Tools for Studying Gerrymandering
A compilation of tools to complete common tasks for studying gerrymandering. This focuses on the geographic tool side of common problems, such as linking different levels of spatial units or estimatin...
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Gautam Kamath @gautamkamath.com · 20/07/2026
Radical proposal: if you want to submit your work for review by other humans, it must first be publicly and permanently posted somewhere with your name on it.
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Jjinandtonic @jjinandtonic.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
One of the many reasons I’m sad about the end of Lower Decks is that it did a nice job of flowing back and forth between the two motivations and making it make sense (since they’re lower decks and growing into command)
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mtsw @mtsw.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
I feel like as a website, we're really, tantalizingly close to understanding FIRST REFORMED (2017)
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Josh McCrain @joshmccrain.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
New working paper! Regression to the Mean in Place-Based Crime Prevention
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Danielle Kurtzleben @titonka.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Just watched Shin Godzilla. Friends, this is the movie that Don’t Look Up failed miserably at being.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 13/07/2026
It's admittedly pretty funny that having run out of US trade to tariff he's now hunting for third party trade to tariff.
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ℳatt @matttomic.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Bluesky during England-Argentina
Krusty the Clown pointing at the Falkland Islands
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