Reposted by Anton StrezhnevJoe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 20hSocial science should be more open with the fact that novelty is smaller and smaller and more constructed. In like 1950, you could be like "we don't know how congressional committees work here is my book on congressional committees". Not the case now. 3697
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevJeffrey Wooldridge @jmwooldridge.bsky.social · 29/09/2026In case anyone is interested, here is a new working paper on non-binary treatments with staggered interventions. Essentially, I show under what assumptions it is valid to estimate cohort x time dose-response functions. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....papers.ssrn.comA Heterogeneous Slopes Approach to Difference-in-Differences with Non-Binary TreatmentsI extend the approach of Wooldridge (2023, 2025) to allow for heterogeneous gains to treatment in the context of staggered interventions for non-binary treatmen 211033
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevNed Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 19/09/2026As I keep saying, professional influencers are petty bourgeois entrepreneurs who make their money by harvesting attention, and that position in the capitalist economy tends to lend itself to a certain kind of politics. 643097
Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Of all the days to drop a p(doom) reference when teaching Bayes’ rule 130
Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 14/09/2026“Nostalgia is a trap that makes us live in a past that never existed” I say as I hit pre-order on World of Warcraft: Forever. 080
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevChris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 14/09/2026This is going to make me sound old and maybe a little nostalgic but it’s really striking how in the Trump era, no one even pretends to debate about policy anymore. 1984785530
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevCooper Lund @cooperlund.online · 12/09/2026If I may - I think this is a symptom of YouTube creator culture being a cargo cult where people just adopt the form of whatever seems to please the algorithm. It’s why everyone makes That Face. 0613
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevBeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 10/09/2026would you let Tethus, Lord of the Lower Air, advise you on your relationship with your spouse? no, but he can sort your books (pdfs) for you. 1470966
Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Might be nice to give an upper bound - “I am confident that it won’t definitely not happen…” 040
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevColin Carlson @colincarlson.bsky.social · 09/09/2026My 2c: we need non-AI-industry-koolaid framing devices. If you drop "superintelligence" and just start with "billions of dollars are being spent on the singular objective of releasing self-editing computer viruses onto the internet, and that will have consequences," seems consequential and solvable! 17023
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevGOLIKEHELLMACHINE @golikehellmachine.com · 09/09/2026if anything, be mad at these companies because they are incompetently run and hire for connections and collegiate pedigree instead of actual talent or ability and pay young and inexperienced people stupid fortunes to do entry level work, because i think this is true of them as well 41365
Reposted by Anton Strezhnevhikikomorphism @hikikomorphism.bsky.social · 08/09/2026I'm constantly talking about LLMs as text elementals and hungry ghosts trapped in jars and nobody's called me out for LLM psychosis once, I can only conclude that the correct stance is mythologizing the things instead of anthropomorphizing them 2749452
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevIsaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 06/09/2026Just everyone get to work. Stop proclaiming things. Show me your neat projects without attaching some smug superiority to it 1173
Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 02/09/2026This is cool but I think an over-use of RD - CEF really looks like it curves at the cut point. But why do we expect a jump? Impact is probably higher for internal locations - so the relevant treatment intensity isn’t at 0. 161
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevThe Mall Krampus @themallkrampus.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Unfortunately for Trump the name of Lake Ontario is very clearly enshrined in something more sacrosanct than large hunks of the US Constitution and Federal Code: the lyrics of "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald" 315250
Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Purple Rose of Cairo/Last Action Hero/Stranger than Fiction/Inkheart/etc… - You shouldn’t anthropomorphize the bots but “narratives escaping into the real world” is a pretty good model for this. 120
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevColin @colin-fraser.net · 27/08/2026I also continue to believe that my mental model is the best one, which does not conceptualize the “agents” as discrete entities, but rather as the protagonists in a story that the LLM has been trained to write about a cool little guy who goes on hacker adventures. 432759
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevStephanie Carvin @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social · 26/08/2026Again, the lesson for Canada fron the tariffs - but also the EU, the Indo-Pacific and any other region looking to do business with the U.S. - is that the tools have been taken out, this will not end with Trump. 42414169
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevAndrew Trexler @atrexler.com · 26/08/2026UW-Madison Poli Sci has THREE searches for TT assistant professors: Environmental politics: go.wisc.edu/1gk366 Chinese politics: go.wisc.edu/847082 American political thought: go.wisc.edu/lfwg6o I am not on any of the search committees, but happy to chat about the dept/UW/Madison/etc at APSA! 04534
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevJoey Politano🏳️🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 25/08/2026sorry but this is the most obviously entirely-AI-generated op-ed ever. It has an "it's not X, it's Y" construction in both the first 2 paragraphs. Pangram has it as 100% AI. One of the most prominent billionaires in finance submitted this? The WSJ allowed it to run? are there no standards anymore? 721123
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 24/08/2026Actually, they tried to implement a function for THE standard error but got into trademark trouble with Ohio State University. 5605
Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 24/08/2026Is InfoWars like the Lament Configuration where whoever owns it just becomes a conspiracy theorist? 107911
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevGPT-Ern Malley @denam.bsky.social · 23/08/2026Many Democrats are deeply uncomfortable with getting Free Trade in the divorce and keep trying to find a way to toss it back. 519427
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevVincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 23/08/2026The 𝚝𝚒𝚗𝚢𝚝𝚊𝚋𝚕𝚎 0.18.0 📦 for #RStats is out! The new version is faster, has lots of bug fixes, and some beat new features. Check it out if you need a dead simple, ultra-flexible, and dep-free package to draw tables: (interactive) html, typ, tex, pdf, and png. vincentarelbundock.github.io/tinytable 06812
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevIsaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 23/08/2026Just because this argument is coming up again. Its actually a really bad statement to go "i cant believe we attacked our closest friend and ally. Think about the higher prices!" 1287583
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevBeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 20/08/2026I don't think we should accept fundamentally right-wing framings about how people who work in offices don't have real jobs and are unmanly. 732319334
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevACARS Drama @acarsdrama.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Air to Ground Message: WOW... UNBELIEVABLE THX 4 THE INFO Area: Blaine, MN, USA Type: Airbus A220-100 A: #a85c861ad87 F: #f0028cacbc1 042
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevCasaubon @zas.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Obviously true but then the question becomes "why did watergate matter when J6 didn't?" and the answer is "holy fuck almost everyone is more evil or cynical now especially the media" and well. I still don't know what to do about that. 1125830
Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 16/08/2026IMO, post-2024 has revealed that the moral vacuousness of the median American voter is rivaled only by the moral vacuousness of the median American elite. 1151
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevThomas Renault @thomasrenault.bsky.social · 14/08/2026🚨Our new paper on generative AI and researcher productivity is now out in @pnas.org A 🧵 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... 192
Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 13/08/2026The academic equivalent of the "Forbes 30 under 30" to "convicted for wire fraud" pipeline 1121
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevDaniel de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · 01/08/2026I have read this Response to my Comment and have written a Rejoinder, showing three things: 1. The multiverse is many correlated tests. 2. The randomization inference is wrong. 3. The trichotomous moderator reaffirms my point. I also enumerate 7 misleading claims, now in print in the APSR. 33010
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevDan Sheehan @dansheehan.bsky.social · 29/07/2026Goddamn, RIP. I was introduced to his stuff after seeing the all-time melancholy classic ONCE in high school and getting sent down a massive wormhole of what was already a massive career all those years ago. So awful to see him go so young.nytimes.comGlen Hansard, Frontman of Irish Band the Frames, Dies at 56The Irish singer-songwriter, who won an Oscar for the song “Falling Slowly” from the movie “Once,” died in a motorcycle crash. 1323
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevSE Gyges @segyges.bsky.social · 28/07/2026solid insight and absolute madness have distressingly similar style signatures 2858
Anton Strezhnev @astrezh.bsky.social · 28/07/2026Our paper on the electoral benefits of Trump's ag payments is out now at the Journal of Public Economics. authors.elsevier.com/c/1nWEVAlwA2... tl;dr - We use the natural experiment from 2019's massive increase in spending to compare 2020 Trump vote in over-compensated vs. under-compensated counties. 2328
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevIn Medias Malone @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 28/07/2026A better world is possible! As is a worse one 1017328
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevScott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 23/07/2026A court might be reluctant to overturn Trump's new "Section 301" tariffs, but that doesn't mean they're actually legitimate. My latest for @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social explains the case's biggest flaws: thedispatch.com/newsletter/d... tl;dr: 15519
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevChris Kenny, PhD @chriskenny.bsky.social · 21/07/2026Thrilled to share that I received POLMETH's Statistical Software Award for 2026 for the #rstats package geomander. It's a performant toolkit for working with spatial data, especially election and demographic data. Learn more about the package at christophertkenny.com/geomander/christophertkenny.comGeographic Tools for Studying GerrymanderingA compilation of tools to complete common tasks for studying gerrymandering. This focuses on the geographic tool side of common problems, such as linking different levels of spatial units or estimatin... 813535
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevGautam Kamath @gautamkamath.com · 20/07/2026Radical proposal: if you want to submit your work for review by other humans, it must first be publicly and permanently posted somewhere with your name on it. 3322
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevJjinandtonic @jjinandtonic.bsky.social · 19/07/2026One of the many reasons I’m sad about the end of Lower Decks is that it did a nice job of flowing back and forth between the two motivations and making it make sense (since they’re lower decks and growing into command) 0386
Reposted by Anton Strezhnevmtsw @mtsw.bsky.social · 17/07/2026I feel like as a website, we're really, tantalizingly close to understanding FIRST REFORMED (2017) 419020
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevJosh McCrain @joshmccrain.bsky.social · 14/07/2026New working paper! Regression to the Mean in Place-Based Crime Prevention 4144
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevDanielle Kurtzleben @titonka.bsky.social · 14/07/2026Just watched Shin Godzilla. Friends, this is the movie that Don’t Look Up failed miserably at being. 6514
Reposted by Anton StrezhnevGeorge Pearkes @peark.es · 13/07/2026It's admittedly pretty funny that having run out of US trade to tariff he's now hunting for third party trade to tariff. 1190398
Reposted by Anton Strezhnevℳatt @matttomic.bsky.social · 12/07/2026Bluesky during England-Argentina 73612552