Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 29/09/2026we’re hiring an assistant professor in American politics 🐘 apply.interfolio.com/194599 13924
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 09/09/2026who had the better season? @miacosta.bsky.social @uchicagopress.bsky.social @apsa.bsky.social 080
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerJoel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 22/07/2026Nice post from Elliott here walking through why this screen is not a perfect LV screen but it's useful. The long and short is screening out all people who say they won't vote undersamples those people (lots of them vote) and oversamples people who say they will definitely vote (lots of them don't) 22911
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerGood Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 14/07/2026Are Jewish Americans really leaving the Democratic Party? Fewer identify as Democratic, but most still plan to vote for Democrats. Read the latest from @bfschaffner.bsky.social: goodauthority.org/news/are-jew...goodauthority.orgAre Jewish Americans really leaving the Democratic Party?Recent data shows a significant drop in Jewish identification with the Democratic Party. Is this a temporary blip or a sign of deeper shifts ahead? Explore the numbers and what they mean for 2026. 1114
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 13/07/2026from 2024 to 2025 there was a stunning 8-point drop in the share of Jewish Americans who identified as Democrats, but it is not clear that this will translate into a shift in voting behavior in November. my latest piece for @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/are-jew...goodauthority.orgAre Jewish Americans really leaving the Democratic Party?Recent data shows a significant drop in Jewish identification with the Democratic Party. Is this a temporary blip or a sign of deeper shifts ahead? Explore the numbers and what they mean for 2026. 052
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerJoel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 11/07/2026Article in the WSJ today about my piece last week and UMich’s defense. Don’t know how else to put it but their defense of not weighting on partisanship was weak and stubborn. www.wsj.com/economy/cons...wsj.comDo We Really Feel This Lousy About the Economy, or Is a Key Survey Broken?The University of Michigan is pushing back and defending its widely tracked consumer sentiment gauge. 2224
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerNew York Times Opinion @nytopinion.nytimes.com · 04/07/2026“Americans have been told for at least two decades that they share less and less, while the data show the actual overlap holding roughly steady,” the political scientists Brian Schaffner and Stephen Ansolabehere write.nyti.msOpinion | No One Wants to Hear It, but Maybe We’re Not That PolarizedAmericans have been told for at least two decades that they share less and less, while the data show the actual overlap holding roughly steady. 363
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerBrian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 04/07/2026we wrote a thing based on our book project to offer some hope this 4th of July. if you choose to see it, we have quite a lot in common with our political foes. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/o...nytimes.comOpinion | No One Wants to Hear It, but Maybe We’re Not That Polarized 386
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerOpinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 05/07/2026We Hate to Break It to You, but Maybe We’re Not That Polarized. (Stephen Ansolabehere and @bfschaffner.bsky.social) 🎁Gift article: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/o...nytimes.comOpinion | We Hate to Break It to You, but Maybe We’re Not That Polarized 063
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 04/07/2026we wrote a thing based on our book project to offer some hope this 4th of July. if you choose to see it, we have quite a lot in common with our political foes. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/o...nytimes.comOpinion | No One Wants to Hear It, but Maybe We’re Not That Polarized 386
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerDavid Darmofal @daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 04/07/2026A @nytimes.com op-ed on this 250th by political scientists Stephen Ansolabehere & @bfschaffner.bsky.socialnytimes.comOpinion | No One Wants to Hear It, but Maybe We’re Not That Polarized 001
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerGood Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 23/06/2026Not all popular state politicians are created equal. Andy Beshear stands out for being remarkably popular given the politics of Kentucky. Read the latest from @bfschaffner.bsky.social: goodauthority.org/news/not-all...goodauthority.orgNot all popular state politicians are created equalThink you know the 2028 frontrunners? A deeper look at current approval ratings reveals some surprises about the presidential race contenders. 052
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 17/06/2026somebody should run an adaptation of our inauguration crowd experiment asking Trump supporters what color the water is... 063
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerGood Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 16/06/2026Why are American politics so volatile? Both parties are divided. Older issues divide Republicans by education, while newer ones divide Democrats by race. See the research results here: goodauthority.org/news/why-are...goodauthority.orgWhy are American politics so volatile?Both parties are divided. Older issues divide Republicans by education, while newer ones divide Democrats by race. 042
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 08/06/2026the perspective that "Dems should be Dems" begs the question, but which Dems should they be? goodauthority.org/news/secular...goodauthority.orgSecular Democrats are on the riseFewer Democrats identify as religious. That’s creating tension with Black voters. 000
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerGood Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 08/06/2026Ideological moderation might appeal to conservatives, but it can also rankle liberals. Here are some Democrats that have established moderate credentials. See the breakdown from @bfschaffner.bsky.social. goodauthority.org/news/these-d...goodauthority.orgThese Democrats have established moderate credentialsIdeological moderation might appeal to conservatives, but it can also rankle liberals in this year's midterms. 031
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerBrian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 05/06/2026lots of talk among Democrats about how whether and how much they need to moderate. in a new @goodauth.bsky.social post, i look at which candidates have actually staked out a moderate reputation in their states...one clear standout here 1/3 22710
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 05/06/2026lots of talk among Democrats about how whether and how much they need to moderate. in a new @goodauth.bsky.social post, i look at which candidates have actually staked out a moderate reputation in their states...one clear standout here 1/3 22710
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerJoel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 19/05/2026I don't know what the phrase is when your nephew is a lot like you, but my nephew was in @bfschaffner.bsky.social's methods class this semester and did an interesting study on ideological extremity and politicians raising money and being mean on the internet. tufts-pol.medium.com/who-is-drivi...tufts-pol.medium.comWho is driving polarization? The role of ideological extremity in communication and fundingby Fatima Eisa (‘26), Shayna Levy (‘28), Chloe Walker (‘28), and Eliot Wertheimer (‘29) 1102
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerBrian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 15/05/2026we recently upgraded the CES shiny apps...most of the improvements are aesthetic, but one notable addition is the ability to see breakdowns of the vote for governor and senate in states with large enough samples! full set of apps are here: tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac... 042
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 15/05/2026we recently upgraded the CES shiny apps...most of the improvements are aesthetic, but one notable addition is the ability to see breakdowns of the vote for governor and senate in states with large enough samples! full set of apps are here: tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac... 042
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 07/05/2026sometimes i see a @today.yougov.com poll question and think that the only possible reason for its existence is to settle a bet between two of their employees 080
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerGood Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 28/04/2026Democrats and Republicans disagree on what political violence even is... The crux of the disagreement? Whether the government’s actions can constitute violence. Read why this matters here: goodauthority.org/news/democra...goodauthority.orgDemocrats and Republicans disagree on what political violence even isThe crux of the disagreement? Whether the government’s actions can constitute violence. 0105
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerBrian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 27/04/2026earlier this month @tufts.edu senior Miles Kendrick and I fielded a survey with @today.yougov.com to better understand what acts people think are political violence. there are some points of agreement & some clear differences of opinion. goodauthority.org/news/democra... 45724
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 27/04/2026earlier this month @tufts.edu senior Miles Kendrick and I fielded a survey with @today.yougov.com to better understand what acts people think are political violence. there are some points of agreement & some clear differences of opinion. goodauthority.org/news/democra... 45724
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerLee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 25/03/2026This feels like a pretty significant development that's not likely to reverse. 252
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 25/03/2026in conjunction with this report, we are also today releasing the data for the 2025 CES common content. includes interviews with 17,000 American adults conducted in late 2025. dig in! doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...doi.org 022
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 25/03/2026there's a new report out from YouGov using CES data to plot trends in partisanship over the past two decades. i've got a piece up today in @goodauth.bsky.social summarizing some key findings. check out both! GA piece: goodauthority.org/news/long-st... YouGov report: yougov.com/en-us/articl...goodauthority.orgThe long-standing Democratic advantage in party identification is goneA new report shows how much the partisan landscape has shifted. 11514
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerBrian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 03/03/2026we've put out the call for teams for the 2026 cooperative election study! be the unsung hero who organizes your colleagues for a module tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac...tischcollege.tufts.eduAbout & MethodologyLearn about how teams can participate in the CES by purchasing survey modules, the sampling and weighting methods used to ensure representative data, and how the questionnaire is structured. 022
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 03/03/2026we've put out the call for teams for the 2026 cooperative election study! be the unsung hero who organizes your colleagues for a module tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac...tischcollege.tufts.eduAbout & MethodologyLearn about how teams can participate in the CES by purchasing survey modules, the sampling and weighting methods used to ensure representative data, and how the questionnaire is structured. 022
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerGood Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 12/02/2026Most Americans don’t see compromise as central to good citizenship. Our election survey data reveal some surprising findings. The latest from @bfschaffner.bsky.social, see the data here: goodauthority.org/news/most-am...goodauthority.orgMost Americans don’t see compromise as central to good citizenshipMost Americans don’t see compromise as central to good citizenship. Our election survey data reveal some surprising findings. 2115
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 11/02/2026in 2024, Trump improved most on his vote share in counties that saw the smallest numbers of people moving there. the newest @TuftsUniversity Public Opinion Lab blog post from Toby Winick. tufts-pol.medium.com/trumps-suppo...tufts-pol.medium.comTrump’s support increased the most in counties with the fewest transplantsby Toby Winick (class of 2026) 1107
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 11/02/2026there are a lot of things that Americans think are important for being a good citizen, engaging in compromise is not one of them ... my latest post with @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/most-am... 276
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerRyan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 11/02/2026I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through. 29643220
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 09/02/2026in a new Tufts Public Opinion Lab post, Seona Maskara (class of '26) shows that LGBTQ liberals are more supportive of Gaza than other liberals tufts-pol.medium.com/queers-for-p...tufts-pol.medium.com“Queers for Palestine”: Ironic, or a representation of Queer Theory in action?by Seona Maskara (class of 2026) 021
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerPolitical Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · 15/01/2026📝Inattentive respondents are a growing concern in online surveys. ➡S Blatte & @bfschaffner.bsky.social that 4 to 6% of respondents pass attention checks yet remain inattentive, biasing public opinion estimates for small subgroups www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView 094
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerKevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/01/2026Very interesting new study using CES data from Scott Platte and @bfschaffner.bsky.social new in @psrm.bsky.social www.cambridge.org/core/journal... 11210
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerBrian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 08/01/2026i have a new article out in @psrm.bsky.social with Scott Blatte exploring respondent attentiveness in the Cooperative Election Study. we find fairly low rates of inattentiveness but our intervention failed to nudge respondents to pay more attention (thread) www.cambridge.org/core/journal...cambridge.orgSurviving the screens: the problem of hidden inattentive respondents in online surveys | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge CoreSurviving the screens: the problem of hidden inattentive respondents in online surveys 185
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 08/01/2026i have a new article out in @psrm.bsky.social with Scott Blatte exploring respondent attentiveness in the Cooperative Election Study. we find fairly low rates of inattentiveness but our intervention failed to nudge respondents to pay more attention (thread) www.cambridge.org/core/journal...cambridge.orgSurviving the screens: the problem of hidden inattentive respondents in online surveys | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge CoreSurviving the screens: the problem of hidden inattentive respondents in online surveys 185
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerMia Costa @miacosta.bsky.social · 06/01/2026If you need a cite backing up that issues commonly associated with African Americans (like criminal justice and poverty) *are actually perceived to be* associated with African Americans and we aren't just all talking out of our @$$ assuming that criminal justice=Black, Tatishe and I did the work: 062
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 22/12/2025in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab post, Miles Kendrick and Rachel Kuhn show that while Black Americans with college experience strongly support affirmative action, those without such experiences oppose it tufts-pol.medium.com/the-x-perien...tufts-pol.medium.comThe X-perience Factor: What polls miss about Black experience with college and support for…by Miles Kendrick (class of 20026) and Rachel Kuhn (class of 20026) 010
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerBrian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 19/11/2025really interesting analysis from Tufts Public Opinion Lab alum Zoe Kava! 073
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 19/11/2025really interesting analysis from Tufts Public Opinion Lab alum Zoe Kava! 073
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 19/11/2025this deep dive on immigration attitudes from Tufts (and CES) alum Caroline Soler and her co-authors is really good! www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/p...nytimes.comHow Americans Feel About Immigrants and Immigration 083
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerDan Cassino @dancassino.bsky.social · 14/11/2025This is out today in open access, and while it's very much a methodology piece, I think it's really important to building the foundation for how we move forward with understanding the role of gender in politics. 1148
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 10/11/2025worth noting that some of this tension was clear in the NYC mayoral, as exit polls show that Mamdani received 79% of the secular white vote, but just 56% among black voters. 040
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerBrian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 29/10/2025atheist/agnostic Americans are now the biggest single voting bloc in the Democratic Party, and their leftist views may be alienating another of the party's traditional sources of strength ... new piece from me and Steve Ansolabehere @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/secular...goodauthority.orgSecular Democrats are on the riseFewer Democrats identify as religious. That’s creating tension with Black voters. 01610
Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 29/10/2025atheist/agnostic Americans are now the biggest single voting bloc in the Democratic Party, and their leftist views may be alienating another of the party's traditional sources of strength ... new piece from me and Steve Ansolabehere @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/secular...goodauthority.orgSecular Democrats are on the riseFewer Democrats identify as religious. That’s creating tension with Black voters. 01610
Reposted by Brian SchaffnerBrian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 27/10/2025the @nytimes.com recently profiled LGB Republicans, in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Toby Winick explores what the data tells about this group and finds that they look quite different from other LGB Americans tufts-pol.medium.com/lgb-republic...tufts-pol.medium.comLGB Republicans look a lot like other Republicans and less like other LGB Americansby Toby Winick (class of ‘2026) 012