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Matt Graham

@mattgraham.bsky.social
2.6K followers 3.5K following 549 posts

Political science, survey methods. m-graham.com

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Reposted by Matt Graham
Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
DoorDash spent $1.4M trying to stop Zohran Mamdani from becoming mayor. This week's historic $131.5M enforcement action against DoorDash for underpaying NYC delivery workers shows why. Yet another reminder that the only thing that can beat organized money is organized people.
theintercept.com
DoorDash Spent $1.4 Million Trying to Stop Mamdani From Becoming Mayor. Now We Know Why.
In a wage-theft settlement, DoorDash now has to pay its workers around 100 times what it spent trying to beat Zohran Mam
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
No more calling these platforms "social media"
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Nicolas Hénin @nicolashenin.net · 17/09/2026
Nice campaign by the Norwegian Consumer Council about the declining lifespan of products. Enjoy!
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Trump's attacks on US higher ed, and Chinese scholars in particular, has been a gift to China's efforts to surge past the US on science and innovation. One report from Renmin University summed it up: "Thank Trump." 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/china-than...
donmoynihan.substack.com
China: “Thank Trump”
The big winner of Trump’s assault on higher ed is America’s chief geopolitical rival
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
In 1974 Converse wrote a great description of most of the summaries of his work that would appear over the next 52 years
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Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
How do refugee crises end? In Dec. 2024, Syrian dictator Assad fled to Russia, ending a regime that displaced millions Would Syrians go back now the regime fell? Our paper tests this with original panel data (2019-2026), ~3k Syrian refugees, spanning fall of Assad osf.io/preprints/so... 🧵 1/8
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Artful point but not true. 99.999% of Rs have never read the documents. They just hear and believe how comparisons frame them. (Yes I was intentional about the number of 9s and it isn't enough)
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
🚨NEW PAPER🚨 Covariate adjustment is a valuable tool for analyzing experiments but is vulnerable to abuse. We assess practice in political science and recommend some good practices. Coming soon to the Journal of Experimental Political Science. Preprint: osf.io/cdmsx_v1
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
🚨NEW PAPER🚨 Covariate adjustment is a valuable tool for analyzing experiments but is vulnerable to abuse. We assess practice in political science and recommend some good practices. Coming soon to the Journal of Experimental Political Science. Preprint: osf.io/cdmsx_v1
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Stars and Stripes @starsandstripes.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
A civilian geography professor was fired from West Point for pushing back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change.
stripes.com
West Point professor fired after pushing back on limitations to teaching climate change, lawsuit says
Adam Kalkstein pushed back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change, the lawsuit says.
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Reposted by Matt Graham
ProPublica @propublica.org · 25/08/2026
Oil companies are blasting millions of gallons of toxic waste each year underground — less than a half-mile from Enid, Oklahoma’s water wells. But to protect their city, officials must appeal to the state agency that created the problem. (Published June with @readfrontier.bsky.social)
propublica.org
To Protect Its Drinking Water, This City Has to Appeal to the Oil Regulators That Put It at Risk
Oklahoma restricts oil field wastewater injection within a half-mile of public water wells. Regulators have let companies do it anyway. But in the city of Enid, officials are pushing back against one ...
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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
You can’t talk about debt without talking about how we got into a bad predicament, and there’s only one correct answer: tax cuts enacted this century
U.S. debt is on track to reach historic levels
Debt held by the public as a percentage of the gross domestic product, 1792-2055
- Historical - • Projected → Without Bush and Trump tax cuts
187.55%
180%
160
140
120|
100
80
99.38%
60
• 47.85%
40
20
0
1800|
1820 1840 1860|
1880
1900 1920 1940|
1960|
1980 2000 2020 2040|
Hover or click to see values.
• Notes:
Source: Authors' calculations using data from the Congressional Budget Office, the Joint Committee on Taxation, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, the U.S. Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve, the Yale Budget Lab, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. A full list of sources is available here.
Chart: Center for American Progress
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Grim account of the politics of Great Salt Lake depletion
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Jess Calarco @jessicacalarco.com · 14/08/2026
Two married professors and their son are being held in ICE detention, despite being legal permanent residents and having no criminal records. All, apparently, because their mom/MIL was a translator for the Iranian hostage takers in 1979, before they were even born. www.thenation.com/article/soci...
thenation.com
One Woman’s Message From the Hell of ICE Detention
My husband, son, and I have been locked up for months—despite being permanent residents with no criminal record. It is an unendurable, unending nightmare.
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
An extension, perhaps, of @mattgraham.bsky.social's excellent POQ article on % undecided and attitude strength here: academic.oup.com/poq/article-...
academic.oup.com
“We Don’t Know” Means “They’re Not Sure”
Abstract. The most familiar approach to handling respondent uncertainty about survey questions, the “don’t know” (DK) response, has an inconvenient feature
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
@mattgraham.bsky.social has shown a lot of stated endorsements of false claims work this way Sometimes people are true believers but a lot of the time they're making flimsy “miseducated guesses” based on what they’ve heard and change their minds or bounce around later doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org
Measuring Misperceptions? | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Measuring Misperceptions? - Volume 117 Issue 1
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Scenes from a personalist regime; The President”s personal lawyer is sworn into high office by another of the Presidents’s personal lawyers, now a judge
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Alexander Kustov @akoustov.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
I'll be spending the second half of October in the UK for a short tour to present my new book project, Immigration for Realists. If you'd like to organize a seminar or meet up, let me know!
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WRI Climate @wriclimate.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
🌿 Nature isn’t just threatened by climate change. It’s also one of our strongest defenses against it. WRI President & CEO Ani Dasgupta explains how nature can help protect communities from extreme heat, wildfires and floods: bit.ly/3Sq6vjR
bit.ly
The Best Defense Against 'Natural' Disasters Is Nature Itself
Many leaders think of nature as a thing that needs protecting, when we really should be thinking about how nature can protect us. Nature restoration is an underutilized solution to the world's growing...
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Having fun brainstorming new research designs based on reviewer comments. Peer review is great.
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Starting a thread for uses of AI in survey research that I would like to see, but (to the best of my knowledge, and I've looked) do not either exist yet, or work well enough yet.
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Jim Goldgeier @jimgoldgeier.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Classic situation in these types of regimes where people only tell the boss what he wants to hear because they are afraid not to.Trump hasn’t set himself up to get good information because he doesn’t want it, and got rid of people who could advise him properly www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
Trump, Hegseth clashed at Camp David over Iran missile depletion concerns
At a Camp David summit this weekend, President Trump demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over extreme munitions shortages.
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Leah Stokes @leahstokes.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
The conventional wisdom is the Democrats' big climate law failed to deliver votes and then died. That's wrong. My new study finds its factories moved 2.5 million votes—more than Trump's margin. And the law's still alive. My latest in @theatlantic.com. Gift link! www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
Bidenomics Was More Successful Than People Think
Conventional wisdom holds that Joe Biden’s bet on climate investment was a bust. The data suggest otherwise.
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Get off social media and learn something! Starts in 10 minutes. tinyurl.com/i-tracking
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Murshed Zaheed @murshedz.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
“Trump has rejected disaster aid for Democratic-run states at the highest rate in the 47-year history of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.” Right now people in blue states are basically paying federal taxes as if they’re colonized territories of red states. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
Trump has denied most disaster requests from Democratic-led states

A graph  showing Presidential approval rates for disaster requests from Democratic-led states and Republican-led states

Source: POLITICO's E&E News analysis of FEMA records
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Republicans Against Trumpism @rpsagainsttrump.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
The President of the United States repeatedly lying about American citizens and trying to lock them up in a pathetic attempt to cover up a botched renovation of the Reflection Pool that wasted millions of taxpayer dollars should be a much bigger story in the news.
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David Higham @oldtrotter.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Quite.
At a time when some British universities, including Exeter, have targeted the humanities in recent budget cuts in favour of subjects such as engineering, LSE remains focused on the social sciences.
"We should recognise that the educational provision that comes from social sciences, humanities and the arts is equally relevant and important to long-term economic growth," Kramer said.
"Just inventing things doesn't mean you've created the environment in which they flourish. The question of how to keep start-ups in the UK is about economics, politics and law."
At a time of labour market disruption partly driven by the uptake of artificial intelligence, he pointed to recruiters' calls for skills from graduates such as critical thinking, communication, collaboration and an interest in continued learning.
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
One week from today! tinyurl.com/i-tracking
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Lauren Miller Karalunas @lmillerkaralunas.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Don't let this report slip through the news cycle unnoticed: federal officials recently admitted that the Trump administration canceled billions in federal grants to states "based solely" on whether they backed the president in the 2024 election. This is a big deal. 🧵1/6
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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Writing a paper introduction is more art than science, but a good formula gets you most of the way there. Today's blog post: a paragraph-by-paragraph template that is used pretty commonly, plus the mistakes I see most often. 🧵 #EconSky deryugina.com/a-two-for-on...
deryugina.com
A two-for-one blog post on writing introductions – Tatyana Deryugina
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Trump admin has quietly drafted new rules governing the census expected to recategorize millions of immigrants (both unauthorized and legal) as not actually living here in the United States This would allow the GOP to steal congressional seats & redirect hundreds of billions of federal dollars
thebulwark.com
Inside Trump’s Stealth Trick to Rig the Census—and Congress
The administration’s latest power grab is disguised as boring technical guidance.
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Erik Ostrom @erikostrom.com · 26/07/2026
Also
“Ghent is calm yet lively, tranquil yet filled with pleasant sound. One resident went so far as to tell Filip Watteeuw he was "the best orchestral composer the city has ever had," because the noise created by excessive automobile traffic had been replaced by an urban symphony of people talking, bicycle gears cranking, and birds singing. While we were in Ghent, we stood at the intersection of two major bike routes.
There we heard the joyful sound of children
laughing and playing, presumably from a schoolyard or playground just out of sight. It was a beautiful reminder that cities aren't loud, cars are loud.”
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Sam G. Howard @samghoward.riliberator.com · 24/07/2026
This is the drum Adam Bonica and others have been beating (I think Lee Drutman also had a piece on this as well).
data4democracy.substack.com
The Mothership Vortex: An Investigation Into the Firm at the Heart of the Democratic Spam Machine
How a single consulting firm extracted $282 million from a network of spam PACs while delivering just $11 million to actual campaigns.
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
If you're on social media right now you might be free for this webinar 2 weeks from now. tinyurl.com/i-tracking
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Orwell is cited a lot these days, and yes "we have always been at war with Eastasia" applies here. But the most Orwellian thing about all this is doublethink. You are required to believe the US and Iran have been at war for 47 years AND that the US and Iran have been at war for only a few months.
Hegseth to Van Hollen: "I would take issue with your characterization that we started this war. Iran started this war 47 year ago."

With a highlight on the last sentence.

Original: https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mr6pehkfss2cTrump "Truth Social" post, July 21, 2026:
Afghanistan War: 20 years, 2,000 DEAD.
Iraq War: 9 years, 4,600 DEAD.
Vietnam War: 19 years and 5 months, 58,220 DEAD.
Korean War: 3 years and 1 month, 36,574 DEAD.
Venezuela War: 1 day, 0 DEAD.
Iran Military Conflict: 4 months, 18 DEAD.

With a highlight on the last line.

Original: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116959705309751797
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Eoghan Daltun 🌍 @irishrainforest.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
The oxygen that keeps us alive comes from natural ecosystems: half on land, half at sea. It's not complicated: we are TOTALLY dependent on the living world. Yet it's still treated as nothing but 'resources', to exploit and destroy for profit.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
No-one is giving Don Jr. money because they think he is a skilled fund manager. They are giving him money because they assume that in one way or another he will provide favorable government treatment for them.
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Frank Amari @frankamari.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Pew Research Center:
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Josh Chafetz @joshchafetz.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Very important piece by Cerin Lindgrensavage and @davidasuper.bsky.social. This behavior by the administration is not only illegal, it is anti-constitutional. thehill.com/opinion/cong...
thehill.com
Congress rejected some of Trump’s proposed budget cuts. OMB is making them anyway.
President Trump and the Office of Management and Budget are accused of violating the separation of powers by attempting to unilaterally withhold funds that Congress specifically appropriated.
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The War on Cars @thewaroncars.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
"Road rage" is what they call murder when a car is involved. It waters down the reality of the violence and the crime. When someone murders a fellow human with a gun, it's rarely called anything other than what it is: murder.
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Sarah Burris @sarahburris.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Trump doesn't remember Homeland Security briefed him on China and the election in 2018. Shouldn't that be concerning?
A tweet from Miles Taylor on X saying: "Trump suggested the "Deep State" hid from him that China was trying to interfere in our elections...

... maybe he forgot that we personally briefed him on the threat throughout 2018.

Big mistake to make claims living humans can refute."
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Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
ProPublica: Trump's FCC Chairman Brendan Carr and fellow Republican commissioner Olivia Trusty received pricey gifts valued at tens of thousands of dollars from Paramount while the company had deals pending before the commission.
propublica.org
FCC Officials Took Pricey Gifts From Paramount as the Company Needed Approval for Billion-Dollar Deals
Accepting tickets to the Kennedy Center honors gala compromised the commissioners’ impartiality, ethics experts told ProPublica. FCC Chair Brendan Carr has been gifted at least $63,000 worth of ticket...
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PA-NJ AAPOR @panjaapor.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Learn how eye tracking is used in survey research & how you can get started! Sign up for our free August 5 webinar: tinyurl.com/i-tracking
STUDYING PREFERENCES WITH EYE TRACKING

Learn about how eye tracking is being used to augment survey research and how new tools can help you get started.

Speakers:
- Libby Jenke, University of Houston
- Ian Krajbich, University of California Los Angeles
- Nikki Sullivan, London School of Economics

Wednesday August 5, 2026
12:00 pm Eastern (New York) time

Part of the PANJAAPOR Learning Lunch Series.

Sign up at http://tinyurl.com/i-tracking
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Reposted by Matt Graham
Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
New voices join Good Authority in 2026! We welcome nine political scientists to our team of experts in our latest cohort of Good Authority fellows. Read their bios below and say hey in the comments! goodauthority.org/news/new-voi...
goodauthority.org
New voices join Good Authority in 2026
We welcome nine political scientists to our team of experts in our latest cohort of Good Authority fellows.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Does protesting authoritarianism alienate moderates? New working paper on 1960s West German student movement suggests protest was associated with modest *increase* in support for the center left, potentially by reshaping perceptions of the far right. osf.io/preprints/so...
Title page of an academic working paper titled The Electoral Effects of Anti-Authoritarian Protest: Evidence from the West German Student Movement. The author is Julian Voß, and the paper is dated July 6, 2026.Abstract of a working paper examining whether anti-authoritarian protest generates electoral backlash. Using evidence from the 1960s West German student movement, the study finds no city-level backlash. Instead, protest is associated with increased support for the center-left Social Democrats, apparently driven by defections from the center right and by changes in how voters perceived the far-right NPD and democratic threats.Map of West Germany showing the spatial distribution of student protest events between 1965 and 1969. Municipalities with protest activity are shaded in progressively darker red to indicate one, two to five, or more than five events. Protest occurred across much of West Germany, with clusters around major urban areas, while East Germany is shaded gray.Dot-and-whisker plot showing estimated associations between protest exposure and party support at the individual level. Protest exposure is associated with higher support for the Social Democrats (SPD) and lower support for the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), with little apparent change for the far-right NPD or the liberal FDP. Results are similar across models using respondent-only controls and models that additionally include municipality controls.
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Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
This is the unlimited agricultural guest worker program that has existed for 40 years.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 08/07/2026
one of my unpopular (to americans) opinions is that primaries are a pretty flawed way of choosing candidates and only superficially have more democratic legitimacy than “smoke-filled rooms”
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NBC News @nbcnews.com · 02/07/2026
Investment accounts owned by President Trump engaged in more than 300 previously undisclosed stock purchases on April 8, 2025, one day before his surprise announcement that he would pause a number of his “Liberation Day” tariffs, his financial disclosure report says.
nbcnews.to
Trump discloses 327 unreported stock trades made a day before his first tariff pause
Their disclosure, more than 14 months after they occurred, is the latest revelation to fuel calls for greater scrutiny of the president’s financial assets.
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Smooth Dunk @smoothdunk2.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
2 panel comic

Panel 1 is titled “Journalist logs into Twitter”
Image shows a Pink Guy performing a high jump. He easily sails over a tall barrier that says “Racism, Nazis, Homophobia, CSAM and Bigotry”. He smiles and waves at the reader.

Panel 2 is titled “Journalist logs into BlueSky”
The Pink Guy is doing the high jump again, however, this time, a much smaller barrier just says “Smugness”. The Pink Guy is clinging to the barrier, trying to hook his leg over it. He yells “Hnnngh I CAN’T GET OVER IT”
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