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James David Griffiths

@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
693 followers 236 following 141 posts

Research Fellow at the British Election Study, Wrexham and Wales fan

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Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 24/09/2026
Great article by @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social in the FT and on my favourite topic too: fragmentation! www.ft.com/content/28ea...
ft.com
Is the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fast
The battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I'd just like to end the thread by saying thanks to my co-authors, our reviewers for their very helpful feedback, and @bjpols.bsky.social !
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
So what are our implications? Well, identity shapes political preferences, but political outcomes can reshape identity too. Referendums may erode the identities that tie states together, specifically among losers. And, in Britain, the Brexit realignment has extended to Britishness/Englishness.
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Remainers and Leavers haven’t simply settled into different national identities after Brexit: they’ve grown further apart. This graph shows the gap over time in England, Scotland and Wales. The changes are concentrated in Britishness and Englishness — the identities most associated with Brexit.
Figure 23: Difference in the mean national identity between Leave and Remain voters over time in
England, Scotland, and Wales (absolute difference: squared, then square rooted).
Difference is the gap between the mean national identity for Remain voters minus the mean national identity
for Leave voters in each wave, squared and then square rooted to represent the absolute (non-directional)
difference between the two groups. We use EU referendum preference contemporaneous to national identity,
exclude non-responses, and weight by the wave-specific weight provided by the BESIP. The black line on each
facet indicates the EU referendum between Wave 8 and Wave 9
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Initially, national identity changed similarly after the EU Ref. But over time, the Remain–Leave gap in Britishness grew considerably. This graph shows change from pre-ref (2016) to after the UK left the EU (June 2020). In short, Remainers are now far less British than Leavers.
Panel A: OLS Regression. This scatter plot shows the change in Britishness for Leave and Remain groups. The x-axis represents the change in Britishness, and the y-axis represents the groups Leave and Remain. The Leave group has a value of -0.125, and the Remain group has a value of -0.350. Panel B: Latent Growth Curve Model. This scatter plot shows the change in Britishness for Leave and Remain groups. The x-axis represents the change in Britishness, and the y-axis represents the groups Leave and Remain. The Leave group has a value of -0.030, and the Remain group has a value of -0.062. Panel C: Two-Way Fixed Effects. This scatter plot shows the change in Britishness for the Remain group across two models. The x-axis represents the change in Britishness, and the y-axis represents the Remain group. The Bivariate Model has a value of -0.091, and the Specified Model has a value of -0.085.
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
The effects of referendums are concentrated among the losing side. After the 2014 Scot Ref, Britishness fell considerably among Yes voters, but it was relatively unchanged among No voters. However, this effect was temporary, as it had bounced back in the following survey wave.
Panel A: The line graph titled Britishness shows the change in national identity on a scale from 0 to 1. The x-axis represents the years from 2014 to 2026, and the y-axis represents the change in national identity. The red dashed vertical line marks the year 2016. A purple dot indicates a change of 0.01 for no voters, and a green triangle indicates a change of -0.54 for yes voters. The graph shows fluctuations in Britishness over time, with notable changes around the referendum years. Panel B: The line graph titled Scottishness shows the change in national identity on a scale from 0 to 1. The x-axis represents the years from 2014 to 2026, and the y-axis represents the change in national identity. The red dashed vertical line marks the year 2016. A purple dot indicates a change of 0.17 for no voters, and a green triangle indicates a change of 0.08 for yes voters. The graph shows fluctuations in Scottishness over time, with notable changes around the referendum years.
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Great to see this out! @jaclarner.bsky.social @danielwincott.bsky.social and I found that national identity responds to referendums. The effect was temporary after the Scottish referendum, but post-Brexit the identity gap between Remain and Leave voters has grown considerably over time. 🧵
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Reposted by James David Griffiths
Daniel Wincott @danielwincott.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Delighted to see this paper out in the wild. Diolch yn fawr to the editors @bjpols.bsky.social to our anonymous referees and, especially, to my fantastic co-authors @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and @jaclarner.bsky.social
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
But just to confirm, it will be the same coding across waves
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I'll look into it, thanks!
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Reposted by James David Griffiths
The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 20/08/2026
📢 New Data 📢 We are pleased to announce the release of Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel. You can find out more information, including where to download the data, here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
britishelectionstudy.com
Release note for Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel - The British Election Study
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Labour have a new leader, so things might change now. However, making these changes means pulling voters back from left-liberal parties, even in areas that are more socially conservative / pro-Brexit on average!
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Labour’s losses to the Greens were not concentrated in “safe” seats where they could afford to lose votes. Losses to the Greens and Reform were broadly similar across "safe" and "marginal" constituencies. Losses to the Lib Dems were more common in seats where Labour had performed worse in 2024.
Graph shows Labour’s voter losses to the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK across constituencies where Labour performed differently in 2024. Labour loses voters to the Greens and Reform UK at similar rates across seats that were safe and marginal for Labour. Labour lost voters at a higher rate to Lib Dems in areas where they were far from victory in 2024.
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Labour is losing voters to the Greens and Lib Dems at similar rates in pro- and anti-Brexit constituencies. Losses to Reform are higher in pro-Brexit seats, but remain lower than losses to the Greens (and are similar to their losses to the Lib Dems)
Graph shows Labour’s voter losses to the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK across constituencies with different levels of support for Brexit. Labour loses voters to the Greens and Liberal Democrats at similar rates across pro- and anti-Brexit constituencies, while losses to Reform are substantially higher in the most pro-Brexit constituencies. Even in these areas, however, Labour loses roughly as many voters to the Liberal Democrats as to Reform.
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
By May 2026, Labour had lost far more voters to the Greens and Lib Dems than to Reform UK, even in pro-Brexit and “marginal” areas. Reform may be competing with Labour for seats, but they are not really competing for the same voters. Short 🧵
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Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
This is work by me, Geoffrey Evans, Zack Grant, Justin Robinson. We show The Economic Insecurity Trap. Published today by @jrf-uk.bsky.social. Thanks to @benzaranko.bsky.social for seeing the importance of household experiences of economic insecurity. NEW REPORT: www.jrf.org.uk/public-attit...
jrf.org.uk
The economic insecurity trap
Financial insecurity is self-reinforcing. Setbacks mean reduced planning and saving, and increasing unemployment, income loss and housing costs. Financial vulnerability is persistent and widespread an...
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Thank you!
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Reposted by James David Griffiths
Joe Phillips @polpsychjoe.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
New publication out and open access at @poqjournal.bsky.social with the legendary @jaclarner.bsky.social! How does support for the UK monarchy change over the lifespan or differ between cohorts? 🧵 (1/x) doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
doi.org
Long May They Reign? Age and Cohort Effects on Monarchism in the UK
Abstract. The monarchy is a long-standing British institution that enjoys high visibility across the world. However, there is concern that younger generati
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Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
@britishelectionstudy.com Director Prof Ed Fieldhouse here explaining the Brexit realignment with insights from our new forthcoming book … please check it out! blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Brexit is still shaping British politics | LSE British Politics
Brexit is no longer front of mind for voters, but the values and identities that they organised around in the run up to the referendum still shape how they vote.
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
A short blog from Ed and me about the enduring role that Brexit is having on British politics!
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Reposted by James David Griffiths
Tim Oliver @tjoliver.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
I've put together some thoughts, with the help of friends, on Andy Burnham and Northerness, for the Sunday Times. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
thetimes.com
Will Andy Burnham appeal beyond M62 if he becomes PM?
The new MP for Makerfield has become an expert at using his regional identity as a political tool. He would be the first ‘proper’ northerner in No 10 for 50 years
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Did you get good odds on Binface?
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Thank you!!
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Aha thank you, though its the same paper as before - we've just finished up this bit of the supplementary material and thought it was a good time to re-publicise!
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
And if you'd like to read the paper with @jaclarner.bsky.social and @danielwincott.bsky.social, you can read that here! tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu
tinyurl.com
Dropbox
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The 2024 UK General Election had a bigger effect on national identity in Britain than Euro 2024 Sound surprising? Well, we found this as part of a paper accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social With the World Cup ⚽️ starting tomorrow, this is the perfect time to read more blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
The World Cup is coming, but does football influence national identity at home?
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Labour lost in Wales for the first time in a century. If you want to know more about how that happened (among other things about Welsh politics), then this today's event is for you! Some really cool stuff here, from some excellent people, and its all online!
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Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Two weeks on from the Senedd election, here are a few reflections on what actually happened and what it might mean for the next four years. Thread. 🧵 jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
That's horrific, I'm sorry mate, hope you're feeling okay and got home safe
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Though it isn't exhaustive - we're missing Wrexham! There are others too, but thats obviously the most egregious
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
@jonmellon.bsky.social recommended Elder Race to me recently and I loved it. Also enjoyed A Long Way To A Small Angry planet, if you like character driven sci-fi (also felt the Project Hail Mary audiobook lived up to the hype)
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Reposted by James David Griffiths
Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
BLOG POST: why I think the measurement of disproportionality in mixed member systems is wrong, and what to do about it www.chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/mixed_...
chrishanretty.co.uk
The measurement of disproportionality in mixed member systems – chris hanretty
I introduce an extension of the Sainte-Laguë index which allows for the calculation of disproportionality in mixed member systems. The index is based on the joint distribution of votes cast across bot...
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Thanks for sharing, this is really cool! I was thinking about how the Gallagher index felt a little wrong when looking at 2021, but couldn't think of a way around it, so this is really interesting to think about
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Exactly! 68% of the seats off 40% of the constituency vote
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
They did, and the regional ballot did quite a lot of work making things more representative. I think people just didnt really understand AMS, as Labour racked up a huge regional vote share even though the use of D'Hondt based on their FPTP seats meant they couldn't win many.
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Reposted by James David Griffiths
Lawrence McKay @lawrencemckay.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
⏰ CALL FOR PAPERS - EPSS PRE-CONFERENCE WORKSHOP ON PLACE, POLITICS AND EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY ⏰ Submit by Weds 20 May! For all those interested in politics of geographic divides and keen to explore impact potential of their work. More info/submit here: shorturl.at/xS0iS @twanhuijsmans.bsky.social
shorturl.at
EPSS pre-conference: “Place, Politics, and Evidence-Based Policy”
In this pre-conference workshop we bring together researchers who study the role of place in politics, and we want to focus particularly on how we (can) make impact on policies and public debates with...
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Thank you Dan!
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Thanks Adam!
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Or quite likely never, especially as parties seem to think its in their interests to make things confusing for voters in their campaign materials...
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Here they are for the Gallagher index! 2021: 10.364 2024: 38.128 (!!!) 2026: 9.456
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Yes, you're right of course! I should have specified D'Hondt in this specific situation
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Genuine mistake sorry!
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Thanks for reading!
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Hopefully of interest to @simonhix.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social @psurridge.bsky.social @timbale.bsky.social @danielwincott.bsky.social (and hopefully others too!)
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Ultimately this is a new voting system, and it will take voters a while to get used to it. There is some evidence they never really understood the old one, so parties will need to really make it clear to voters. But without reliable info (and with dodgy bar charts), this will be really tricky!
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
This is important for navigating the system. This shows how many votes a party would need to win 1 more seat in every constituency (if nothing else changes). In some areas, within-bloc consolidation would help the bigger parties win another seat. In others, their support is already saturated.
Graph showing the number of votes a party would need to win one more seat in each constituency
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
The smaller parties were only able to win any representation because they had some pockets of concentrated support (Cardiff for Greens, BTN for LD). Plaid support was spread across Wales, same with Reform (not Cardiff); that delivered consistent gains. Thinner Lab/Con vote meant they missed out
Graph showing a heat map of the vote share received by the six major parties in the 2026 Senedd election.
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
This happens because D'Hondt is biased towards bigger parties. In 2021, Labour got more seats than their vote share due to their dominance in constituency ballots. In 2026, Plaid and Reform got more seats than votes. If you want to know why, @jaclarner.bsky.social has a great piece on this!
Left graph shows votes (constituency+region) and seat shares of Senedd election in 2021, and right graph shows the same for 2026
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
When electoral reform was introduced, the Welsh Govt said that they wanted to change to a "proportional" system. But if we look at the Gallagher index (higher = disproportional), we can see this system wasn't really an improvement on any past Senedd election. Its better than FPTP, but what isnt!
Graph showing the Gallagher index for every Senedd and UK General election in Wales. UK General Elections are very disproportional, the Senedd elections less so, but the new election system wasn't an improvement.
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
The Senedd elects 6 members across 16 constituencies via D'Hondt. Largest party wins the first seat. Their votes are then divided by 1+seats won, and this repeats until the 6 are filled. On average, parties needed around 37% to win the 1st seat in a constituency, but only ~12% to win the 6th
Graph showing the percentage vote share that the winning party received for each seat round in the 2026 Senedd election. Parties needed sequentially fewer votes to win each seat.
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