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Ben Zaranko

@benzaranko.bsky.social
7.2K followers 255 following 861 posts

Economics Editor, The Observer Sign up for my newsletter: observer.co.uk/newsletters

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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
In case you missed it amidst the very many other things to happen yesterday, I wrote about the importance of policy salience - whether or not voters actually notice something - and what it might mean for decisions at the Budget. observer.co.uk/news/politic...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Another reflection. The savings from the reformed triple lock won't be enough to fund a national care service of the kind Burnham envisages. But he didn't shy away from that. He said everyone will need to contribute, i.e. broad based tax rises will be needed - but not just yet, only after 2030.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
One reflection. The triple lock was bad, unsustainable policy and it's good news if it goes in 2030. Credit due for taking it on. But Burnham wants to use it to part-fund a new arm of the welfare state. It's a "tough decision", but one that won't improve the UK's public finance position.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I'll be at Labour party conference next week - my first ever. Do you have tips? Event suggestions? Would you like to have coffee and talk about economics? Do you know where's good to eat/drink/run in Liverpool? Get in touch!
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
One day, our political parties will face reality and stop making farcical, unserious promises to voters -- promises which entrench the delusion that we can enjoy lower taxes and better public services without ever having to pay more, even amidst the crisis-strewn 2020s. But today is not that day.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
On holiday last week, I read A Place of Greater Safety, Hilary Mantel’s marvellous novel about the French Revolution. Because I’m a huge nerd who struggles to switch off, several passages about the use of the guillotine for public executions made me think about the economic impacts of AI...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
This is excellent
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
This is almost exactly what fictional president Buzz Windrip offers voters in It Can't Happen Here. The money never arrives, of course. www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Trump says every adult American would get $5,000 if Republicans win midterms
Speaking at a party convention, the US president gave no details on how the plan would work or where the money would come from.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Re-upping this because I think it's quite Bluesky-friendly (I mean this with affection)
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Decided that this point is sufficiently important to deserve a chart
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The Treasury announced last week that for the first time in more than 20 years, it’s changing the single most economically significant, philosophically contentious number in government: the discount rate. Why? And why does it matter? My latest newsletter: observer.co.uk/news/politic...
observer.co.uk
‘Project tram’ v ‘Project pothole’: why the government is...
The single most economically significant, philosophically contentious number in government is being changed for the first time since 2003
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John Rentoul @rentouljohn.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Key paragraph of good summary of Budget options by @benzaranko.bsky.social observer.co.uk/news/busines...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
It's that time of year again. The OBR will be sending their first set of forecasts to the Treasury some time around now. I've written about John Healey's economic and fiscal inheritance, and the lessons he might draw from his predecessor's experience. observer.co.uk/news/busines...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Some story, this. Incredible journalism. All of the undercover footage in restaurants and private members clubs reminded me a bit of Sam Allardyce. Half expected someone to order a pint of wine.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Company insolvencies in England and Wales are still running at elevated levels. Presumably, higher interest rates are part of the reason why. Question: could this have something to do with the UK's apparent productivity rebound, if weaker firms are going under?
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The government is investing £71m in a tungsten mine in Devon. I've written about what this tells us about the economic times we find ourselves in, where security trumps efficiency, and recurring supply shocks are the new normal. observer.co.uk/news/busines...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
There's quite the disconnect in US economic policymaking right now. Kevin Warsh says "The Fed needs clear market signals, as unfiltered as possible". Meanwhile, Scott Bessent is busy telling markets that long-term bond yields are too high, and intervening to lower them...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Andy Burnham and John Healey can count themselves lucky: it looks as though the NHS has managed to live within its means for the first time in a decade. If - and it's a big if - that continues, next year's spending review starts to look a bit more deliverable.
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Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
This is very good and thought provoking. www.ft.com/content/c96c... Why today’s markets are not as contradictory as they seem
ft.com
Why today’s markets are not as contradictory as they seem
What looks like a breakdown in historical correlations may simply reflect a different macroeconomic regime
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Bill Gates on the future of work in a world of AI: Some jobs should be "human reserved", a phrase he likes "because it makes me think of nature reserves - places where we could put buildings and roads, but we choose not to because the loss would be too great". www.gatesnotes.com/work/make-ai...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
ICYMI: even at A-level, students appear to be paying greater attention to which subjects might produce greater financial returns.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Students are increasingly shifting towards university subjects with higher financial returns (economics, maths, law) and away from degrees that don’t pay (English, philosophy, performing arts). The same trend is evident in A-level entries. Students have become more discerning. A thread... 🧵
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Interesting from @robwoodecon.bsky.social on today's inflation stats: "It looks like the government’s temporary VAT cuts passed through to prices much less than we expected. Catering services and recreation and culture prices both rose month-to-month [in July] compared to our forecast of a fall."
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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
@benzaranko.bsky.social on immigration and wages in Norway: winners and losers, net *rise* in native wages. observer.co.uk/news/nationa...
observer.co.uk
Remember: immigrants create jobs as well as take them
A narrow focus on the jobs immigrants move into ignores the fact that by spending money, they create new jobs elsewhere
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
This week's newsletter is out. What zero-sum thinkers get wrong about migration (with the help of some friendly stereotypes about British Poles); the wonder of the pineapple; the economic importance of silver; and the latest in the great UK productivity debate. Sign up: observer.co.uk/newsletters
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Developers often offer sweeteners to entice buyers of new builds: money towards stamp duty, fancy flooring, or even two years of private school fees. But they're loath to cut headline prices. Why? And what does it tells us about the state of the housing market? 👇 observer.co.uk/news/busines...
observer.co.uk
What do universities and house builders have in common? N...
Sweeteners for buyers of new builds rarely include a drop in the price of the home. So developers, and the government, will have to find other ways to shift empty stock
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Developers often offer sweeteners to entice buyers of new builds: money towards stamp duty, fancy flooring, or even two years of private school fees. But they're loath to cut headline prices. Why? And what does it tells us about the state of the housing market? 👇 observer.co.uk/news/busines...
observer.co.uk
What do universities and house builders have in common? N...
Sweeteners for buyers of new builds rarely include a drop in the price of the home. So developers, and the government, will have to find other ways to shift empty stock
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
I absolutely love this description of a pineapple, from Charles Lamb in 1822: “Like lovers' kisses, she biteth — she is a pleasure bordering on pain from the fierceness and insanity of her relish”. A bit like an ice cold pint of lager on a hot day. Via ordinaryabundance.com?utm_source=s...
ordinaryabundance.com
Ordinary Abundance
A walk through a modern apartment, through the eyes of the people for whom everything in it was new.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The UK economy grew at an annualised rate of 2% over the first half of 2026. Spending by both households and businesses has been unexpectedly resilient to the war in the Middle East. We should expect some slow down in the second half of the year, but still: very good news. t.co/2ynTgr0vgO
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Aveek Bhattacharya @aveek18.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Definitely agree! This is part of what makes Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren so powerful. Or more recently, I keep coming back to the framework of Four Futures. And it's not fiction, but my colleague Jordan Dworkin has a vivid depiction of economic progress here:
ordinaryabundance.com
Ordinary Abundance
A walk through a modern apartment, through the eyes of the people for whom everything in it was new.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Scenario-based speculative fiction has been used for more than a century to highlight new military threats, capture the public imagination, and sharpen minds in policy circles. In today's newsletter, I ask why we don't see it used more often in economics. observer.co.uk/news/opinion...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
People report the highest levels of economic insecurity in mid-life, as they get squeezed by mortgage and childcare costs. New research from @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al shows how insecurity can become a trap: financial setback -> less saving -> more insecure. observer.co.uk/news/busines...
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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
See @benzaranko.bsky.social: feelings of economic security for households go much deeper than living costs, and, as we show, can create an Economic Insecurity Trap. Absolutely vital focus for politics. Our work here w/ @jrf-uk.bsky.social @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social share.google/310c4MF0BSwN...
share.google
Economics is a confidence game midlifers are losing
Financial insecurity is trapping households in short-term thinking and costing the government votes, new research shows. Savings policy could lift the mood
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Total unpaid council tax debt in England increased to £7.4 billion at the end of March, up from £6.6 billion a year earlier, in a sign that households are struggling with their bills. In inflation-adjusted terms, council tax arrears have increased by 20% over three years.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Adult social care is mostly a local responsibility. The exception is NHS continuing healthcare, a national programme providing free care to those who qualify. It's the mother of all postcode lotteries. Application success rates in Manchester were 12x higher than in Gloucestershire in Q1 2026.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
In case you missed it: I tackled one of the great moral questions of our age earlier this week
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Question for the devolution nerds: Ben Houchen won't be allowed to cut income tax *rates*, but what's to stop him using his share of local income tax receipts to send out cheques worth the same amount, as a *spending* programme? Practicalities? Does he lack the required spending powers?
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Based on today's fiscal devolution (re)announcement, it's not clear (to me) whether mayors will be allowed to borrow against local income tax revenues, or whether this is just about providing more control and stronger growth incentives. Direction of travel clear, but the details will matter a lot!
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Sensible policy klaxon 🚨 Currently, if a 16 year old chooses to stay in school/college, their family can keep claiming benefits as before (notably child benefit). If they opt for an apprenticeship, the benefits stop. The system discourages apprenticeships. The DWP just announced a fix 🧵
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
In today's newsletter, I've tackled one of the big questions of the day: why don't Gen Z buy rounds in the pub? observer.co.uk/news/busines...
observer.co.uk
Why don’t Gen Z buy rounds in the pub? | The Observer
Growing up in economic hard times can lead to a ‘zero sum’ approach to politics – and an aversion to buying rounds
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Seb Schmoller @schmoller.net · 26/07/2026
"Active support or tough love? Whatever you call it, it could be the answer to the youth Neets crisis." Interesting and well thought through piece by @benzaranko.bsky.social: observer.co.uk/news/busines...
As it stands, almost 1 million young people are “destined for the scrapheap”, according to Alan Milburn, a former health secretary under Tony Blair. He was asked by Keir Starmer’s government to undertake a review of how best to avert what he has called a “social catastrophe” and an “incalculable act of economic self-harm”.
After publishing an interim “diagnostic” report earlier this year, Milburn is due to make final recommendations to the new government this autumn. The new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who has kept Pat McFadden in post at the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), could choose to make tackling the Neets crisis a central plank of his burgeoning policy agenda.
Milburn’s diagnosic report contains clues about what could be coming next. He notes that in 2024–25, for every £1 spent by the DWP on employment support for young people, around £25 was spent paying them benefits. Milburn thinks that ratio is wrong, and that the government focuses too much on “passive” support, in the form of cash benefits, and too little on active efforts to get young people into work.
This is not just an argument about how best to help young people struggling to find their way: it’s an argument about what it means for a government to be progressive.
In a standard analysis of who gets what from the state, cash benefits paid to young people out of work show up as highly progressive, supporting some of the poorest in society. But what if it’s not in their long-term interests? What if a system that focused instead on hands-on training, careers advice and subsidised work placements could put them on a more positive life trajectory and improve their outcomes over decades, even if that appeared less progressive in the short term?
This would require a shift of mindset – one that would move the system closer to the Dutch, Danish and Australian models, which The Observer understands Milburn’s team to be studying closely for inspiration. All involve a bit more “tough love”, and place …
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
My assessment of Andy Burnham's week one governing philosophy observer.co.uk/news/politic...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
For every £1 spent by the DWP on employment support for young people, around £25 is spent paying them benefits. A rebalancing from passive to active support is on the cards. What could that look like? What questions does it raise? I went to Sunderland to find out: observer.co.uk/news/busines...
observer.co.uk
Active support or tough love? Whatever you call it, it co...
A Sunderland community centre shows how mentoring helps young people find work – and why cash benefits are less effective in the long term than tough love and job placements
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
My assessment of Andy Burnham's week one governing philosophy observer.co.uk/news/politic...
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
For every £1 spent by the DWP on employment support for young people, around £25 is spent paying them benefits. A rebalancing from passive to active support is on the cards. What could that look like? What questions does it raise? I went to Sunderland to find out: observer.co.uk/news/busines...
observer.co.uk
Active support or tough love? Whatever you call it, it co...
A Sunderland community centre shows how mentoring helps young people find work – and why cash benefits are less effective in the long term than tough love and job placements
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Good little fact here
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
This is an amazing chart - but it shows *relative* inequality. Because wealth has grown from 3.5 to 7 times annual GDP since 1991, the *absolute* wealth gaps are wider, and stagnant wages mean it's harder to earn your way up the ladder. So beneath the surface, still cause for concern.
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
There will be lots of focus on the Number 10-Treasury relationship under Burnham and Healey. I think we should also keep an eye on the Treasury-Bank of England relationship, as the new government goes on the hunt for "flexibility" within the existing fiscal rules... observer.co.uk/news/politic...
observer.co.uk
Burnham, Healey and Haigh: prepare for a shift in fiscal ...
The relationship between No 10, the Treasury and the Bank of England is not set in stone. The new PM and his team, especially Haigh, aren’t convinced
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
The rate of VAT on household electricity bills will be cut from 5% to 0% from 1 October. It is expected to take about £45 off the average bill, at a cost to the exchequer of around £850 million in 2026–27. A few immediate thoughts:
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Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Here's a remarkable stat. From 2004 to 2024, the number of people aged 65 and above in England increased by 3 million, or 38%. Over the same period, the number of people aged 65 and above receiving long-term social care support fell by 235,000, or 37%.
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