Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 30/09/2026In case you missed it amidst the very many other things to happen yesterday, I wrote about the importance of policy salience - whether or not voters actually notice something - and what it might mean for decisions at the Budget. observer.co.uk/news/politic... 010
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Another reflection. The savings from the reformed triple lock won't be enough to fund a national care service of the kind Burnham envisages. But he didn't shy away from that. He said everyone will need to contribute, i.e. broad based tax rises will be needed - but not just yet, only after 2030. 123
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026One reflection. The triple lock was bad, unsustainable policy and it's good news if it goes in 2030. Credit due for taking it on. But Burnham wants to use it to part-fund a new arm of the welfare state. It's a "tough decision", but one that won't improve the UK's public finance position. 483
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 25/09/2026I'll be at Labour party conference next week - my first ever. Do you have tips? Event suggestions? Would you like to have coffee and talk about economics? Do you know where's good to eat/drink/run in Liverpool? Get in touch! 430
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 22/09/2026One day, our political parties will face reality and stop making farcical, unserious promises to voters -- promises which entrench the delusion that we can enjoy lower taxes and better public services without ever having to pay more, even amidst the crisis-strewn 2020s. But today is not that day. 13518
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 22/09/2026On holiday last week, I read A Place of Greater Safety, Hilary Mantel’s marvellous novel about the French Revolution. Because I’m a huge nerd who struggles to switch off, several passages about the use of the guillotine for public executions made me think about the economic impacts of AI... 143
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 10/09/2026This is almost exactly what fictional president Buzz Windrip offers voters in It Can't Happen Here. The money never arrives, of course. www.bbc.com/news/article...bbc.comTrump says every adult American would get $5,000 if Republicans win midtermsSpeaking at a party convention, the US president gave no details on how the plan would work or where the money would come from. 150
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Re-upping this because I think it's quite Bluesky-friendly (I mean this with affection) 0205
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Decided that this point is sufficiently important to deserve a chart 1105
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 08/09/2026The Treasury announced last week that for the first time in more than 20 years, it’s changing the single most economically significant, philosophically contentious number in government: the discount rate. Why? And why does it matter? My latest newsletter: observer.co.uk/news/politic...observer.co.uk‘Project tram’ v ‘Project pothole’: why the government is...The single most economically significant, philosophically contentious number in government is being changed for the first time since 2003 2175
Reposted by Ben ZarankoJohn Rentoul @rentouljohn.bsky.social · 06/09/2026Key paragraph of good summary of Budget options by @benzaranko.bsky.social observer.co.uk/news/busines... 062
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 06/09/2026It's that time of year again. The OBR will be sending their first set of forecasts to the Treasury some time around now. I've written about John Healey's economic and fiscal inheritance, and the lessons he might draw from his predecessor's experience. observer.co.uk/news/busines... 160
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Some story, this. Incredible journalism. All of the undercover footage in restaurants and private members clubs reminded me a bit of Sam Allardyce. Half expected someone to order a pint of wine. 1101
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Company insolvencies in England and Wales are still running at elevated levels. Presumably, higher interest rates are part of the reason why. Question: could this have something to do with the UK's apparent productivity rebound, if weaker firms are going under? 3183
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 01/09/2026The government is investing £71m in a tungsten mine in Devon. I've written about what this tells us about the economic times we find ourselves in, where security trumps efficiency, and recurring supply shocks are the new normal. observer.co.uk/news/busines... 021
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 28/08/2026There's quite the disconnect in US economic policymaking right now. Kevin Warsh says "The Fed needs clear market signals, as unfiltered as possible". Meanwhile, Scott Bessent is busy telling markets that long-term bond yields are too high, and intervening to lower them... 022
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Andy Burnham and John Healey can count themselves lucky: it looks as though the NHS has managed to live within its means for the first time in a decade. If - and it's a big if - that continues, next year's spending review starts to look a bit more deliverable. 0146
Reposted by Ben ZarankoDuncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 26/08/2026This is very good and thought provoking. www.ft.com/content/c96c... Why today’s markets are not as contradictory as they seemft.comWhy today’s markets are not as contradictory as they seemWhat looks like a breakdown in historical correlations may simply reflect a different macroeconomic regime 5122
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 26/08/2026Bill Gates on the future of work in a world of AI: Some jobs should be "human reserved", a phrase he likes "because it makes me think of nature reserves - places where we could put buildings and roads, but we choose not to because the loss would be too great". www.gatesnotes.com/work/make-ai... 051
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 26/08/2026ICYMI: even at A-level, students appear to be paying greater attention to which subjects might produce greater financial returns. 031
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Students are increasingly shifting towards university subjects with higher financial returns (economics, maths, law) and away from degrees that don’t pay (English, philosophy, performing arts). The same trend is evident in A-level entries. Students have become more discerning. A thread... 🧵 102714
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 19/08/2026Interesting from @robwoodecon.bsky.social on today's inflation stats: "It looks like the government’s temporary VAT cuts passed through to prices much less than we expected. Catering services and recreation and culture prices both rose month-to-month [in July] compared to our forecast of a fall." 281
Reposted by Ben ZarankoJohn Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 19/08/2026@benzaranko.bsky.social on immigration and wages in Norway: winners and losers, net *rise* in native wages. observer.co.uk/news/nationa...observer.co.ukRemember: immigrants create jobs as well as take themA narrow focus on the jobs immigrants move into ignores the fact that by spending money, they create new jobs elsewhere 1237
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 18/08/2026This week's newsletter is out. What zero-sum thinkers get wrong about migration (with the help of some friendly stereotypes about British Poles); the wonder of the pineapple; the economic importance of silver; and the latest in the great UK productivity debate. Sign up: observer.co.uk/newsletters 1145
Reposted by Ben ZarankoBen Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Developers often offer sweeteners to entice buyers of new builds: money towards stamp duty, fancy flooring, or even two years of private school fees. But they're loath to cut headline prices. Why? And what does it tells us about the state of the housing market? 👇 observer.co.uk/news/busines...observer.co.ukWhat do universities and house builders have in common? N...Sweeteners for buyers of new builds rarely include a drop in the price of the home. So developers, and the government, will have to find other ways to shift empty stock 042
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Developers often offer sweeteners to entice buyers of new builds: money towards stamp duty, fancy flooring, or even two years of private school fees. But they're loath to cut headline prices. Why? And what does it tells us about the state of the housing market? 👇 observer.co.uk/news/busines...observer.co.ukWhat do universities and house builders have in common? N...Sweeteners for buyers of new builds rarely include a drop in the price of the home. So developers, and the government, will have to find other ways to shift empty stock 042
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 15/08/2026I absolutely love this description of a pineapple, from Charles Lamb in 1822: “Like lovers' kisses, she biteth — she is a pleasure bordering on pain from the fierceness and insanity of her relish”. A bit like an ice cold pint of lager on a hot day. Via ordinaryabundance.com?utm_source=s...ordinaryabundance.comOrdinary AbundanceA walk through a modern apartment, through the eyes of the people for whom everything in it was new. 030
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 13/08/2026The UK economy grew at an annualised rate of 2% over the first half of 2026. Spending by both households and businesses has been unexpectedly resilient to the war in the Middle East. We should expect some slow down in the second half of the year, but still: very good news. t.co/2ynTgr0vgO 196
Reposted by Ben ZarankoAveek Bhattacharya @aveek18.bsky.social · 11/08/2026Definitely agree! This is part of what makes Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren so powerful. Or more recently, I keep coming back to the framework of Four Futures. And it's not fiction, but my colleague Jordan Dworkin has a vivid depiction of economic progress here:ordinaryabundance.comOrdinary AbundanceA walk through a modern apartment, through the eyes of the people for whom everything in it was new. 1102
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 11/08/2026Scenario-based speculative fiction has been used for more than a century to highlight new military threats, capture the public imagination, and sharpen minds in policy circles. In today's newsletter, I ask why we don't see it used more often in economics. observer.co.uk/news/opinion... 6304
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 10/08/2026People report the highest levels of economic insecurity in mid-life, as they get squeezed by mortgage and childcare costs. New research from @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al shows how insecurity can become a trap: financial setback -> less saving -> more insecure. observer.co.uk/news/busines... 1123
Reposted by Ben ZarankoJane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 09/08/2026See @benzaranko.bsky.social: feelings of economic security for households go much deeper than living costs, and, as we show, can create an Economic Insecurity Trap. Absolutely vital focus for politics. Our work here w/ @jrf-uk.bsky.social @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social share.google/310c4MF0BSwN...share.googleEconomics is a confidence game midlifers are losingFinancial insecurity is trapping households in short-term thinking and costing the government votes, new research shows. Savings policy could lift the mood 025
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 05/08/2026Total unpaid council tax debt in England increased to £7.4 billion at the end of March, up from £6.6 billion a year earlier, in a sign that households are struggling with their bills. In inflation-adjusted terms, council tax arrears have increased by 20% over three years. 351
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 04/08/2026Adult social care is mostly a local responsibility. The exception is NHS continuing healthcare, a national programme providing free care to those who qualify. It's the mother of all postcode lotteries. Application success rates in Manchester were 12x higher than in Gloucestershire in Q1 2026. 155
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 01/08/2026In case you missed it: I tackled one of the great moral questions of our age earlier this week 141
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 01/08/2026Question for the devolution nerds: Ben Houchen won't be allowed to cut income tax *rates*, but what's to stop him using his share of local income tax receipts to send out cheques worth the same amount, as a *spending* programme? Practicalities? Does he lack the required spending powers? 16395
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 31/07/2026Based on today's fiscal devolution (re)announcement, it's not clear (to me) whether mayors will be allowed to borrow against local income tax revenues, or whether this is just about providing more control and stronger growth incentives. Direction of travel clear, but the details will matter a lot! 220
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 28/07/2026Sensible policy klaxon 🚨 Currently, if a 16 year old chooses to stay in school/college, their family can keep claiming benefits as before (notably child benefit). If they opt for an apprenticeship, the benefits stop. The system discourages apprenticeships. The DWP just announced a fix 🧵 7402111
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 28/07/2026In today's newsletter, I've tackled one of the big questions of the day: why don't Gen Z buy rounds in the pub? observer.co.uk/news/busines...observer.co.ukWhy don’t Gen Z buy rounds in the pub? | The ObserverGrowing up in economic hard times can lead to a ‘zero sum’ approach to politics – and an aversion to buying rounds 121
Reposted by Ben ZarankoSeb Schmoller @schmoller.net · 26/07/2026"Active support or tough love? Whatever you call it, it could be the answer to the youth Neets crisis." Interesting and well thought through piece by @benzaranko.bsky.social: observer.co.uk/news/busines... 132
Reposted by Ben ZarankoBen Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 26/07/2026My assessment of Andy Burnham's week one governing philosophy observer.co.uk/news/politic... 1131
Reposted by Ben ZarankoBen Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 25/07/2026For every £1 spent by the DWP on employment support for young people, around £25 is spent paying them benefits. A rebalancing from passive to active support is on the cards. What could that look like? What questions does it raise? I went to Sunderland to find out: observer.co.uk/news/busines...observer.co.ukActive support or tough love? Whatever you call it, it co...A Sunderland community centre shows how mentoring helps young people find work – and why cash benefits are less effective in the long term than tough love and job placements 072
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 26/07/2026My assessment of Andy Burnham's week one governing philosophy observer.co.uk/news/politic... 1131
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 25/07/2026For every £1 spent by the DWP on employment support for young people, around £25 is spent paying them benefits. A rebalancing from passive to active support is on the cards. What could that look like? What questions does it raise? I went to Sunderland to find out: observer.co.uk/news/busines...observer.co.ukActive support or tough love? Whatever you call it, it co...A Sunderland community centre shows how mentoring helps young people find work – and why cash benefits are less effective in the long term than tough love and job placements 072
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 23/07/2026This is an amazing chart - but it shows *relative* inequality. Because wealth has grown from 3.5 to 7 times annual GDP since 1991, the *absolute* wealth gaps are wider, and stagnant wages mean it's harder to earn your way up the ladder. So beneath the surface, still cause for concern. 22917
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 21/07/2026There will be lots of focus on the Number 10-Treasury relationship under Burnham and Healey. I think we should also keep an eye on the Treasury-Bank of England relationship, as the new government goes on the hunt for "flexibility" within the existing fiscal rules... observer.co.uk/news/politic...observer.co.ukBurnham, Healey and Haigh: prepare for a shift in fiscal ...The relationship between No 10, the Treasury and the Bank of England is not set in stone. The new PM and his team, especially Haigh, aren’t convinced 121
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 21/07/2026The rate of VAT on household electricity bills will be cut from 5% to 0% from 1 October. It is expected to take about £45 off the average bill, at a cost to the exchequer of around £850 million in 2026–27. A few immediate thoughts: 3205
Ben Zaranko @benzaranko.bsky.social · 19/07/2026Here's a remarkable stat. From 2004 to 2024, the number of people aged 65 and above in England increased by 3 million, or 38%. Over the same period, the number of people aged 65 and above receiving long-term social care support fell by 235,000, or 37%. 3103