Sign in

Matthew Price

@matthewbprice.bsky.social
3.2K followers 391 following 312 posts

Political data guy at Focaldata.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Matthew Price
Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
There have also been some notable shifts in people perceiving that politicians/government are paying attention to them. Place-based politics is here to stay and people seem to be noticing...
1123
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
When Keir Starmer proposed ostensibly popular policies (e.g. digital ID), typically became infected by his own personal unpopularity. If anything, endorsement Burnham seems to have the opposite effect. Excellent sign for Labour.
011
Reposted by Matthew Price
James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This is a great article and I think accurately gets at the place the Lib Dems are in electorally. Highly recommended lunch time reading 👇
162
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I was really stuck at Lib Dem Conference by how frustrated members are with the party’s lack of a clear identity. So I’ve written about why that’s actually a good thing.
pollingstation.substack.com
The Lib Dems’ Strategy is Working, Actually
But its members aren’t happy about it
191
Reposted by Matthew Price
the Mountain Goats @themountaingoats.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Bluesky is the most learned group ever assembled of smart, funny people who will read a headline and then talk for two days about only the headline
543283388
Reposted by Matthew Price
Jos Dornschneider-Elkink @jelkink.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Check out the new Irish Election Studies Archive: irishelectionstudies.org All major election, referendum, and other voter studies! All with standardized variable coding and detailed codebooks. And we're still compiling more data sets! @cses.bsky.social @psaireland.bsky.social
irishelectionstudies.org
Irish Election Studies Archive
1125
Reposted by Matthew Price
James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
174
Reposted by Matthew Price
Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards www.economist.com/britain/2026...
Chart showing the lading party by ward % age 50 or older and % with a managerial or professional occupation. Between 2021 and 2024 Labour won wards with a majority of young or working-class voters, in 2026 the Greens won younger wards while Reform UK won older working class wards
61831309
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
This gives a really interesting indication of which contest(s) each party is targeting. Government parties hedging their bets; Soc Dems investing 2:1 in Daniel Ennis over Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich.
132
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
James’ faith in people on this platform to recognise satire is…brave. Read the piece!
041
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Cruelly amusing how YouGov includes "Your Party: 0% (=)" every time.
081
Reposted by Matthew Price
Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Our new @instituteforgovernment.org.uk report lists 10 things the government needs to do to fix the children's social care market. 👇I've done a little run down of some of the key charts
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Fixing the children’s social care market | Institute for Government
Many children live in placements that do not meet their needs. The government’s reforms are promising, but rely on more joined-up public services.
298
Reposted by Matthew Price
Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
On 7 May 2026, Britain ran a PR experiment: Scottish Parliament: a Mixed-Member Proportional system Welsh Senedd: a (new) Low-Magnitude Party List system Same day, same political context, different outcomes. Which version of PR would be better for Westminster? 🧵
33275128
Reposted by Matthew Price
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
New post-locals piece with my brilliant colleague @matthewbprice.bsky.social unherd.com/2026/05/six-...
unherd.com
Six coping myths about the local election
021
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
I really enjoyed chatting with Farrah about the state of play in UK politics, and much of our conversation feels even more relevant after today’s results. If you’ve had enough UK politics for one day, I recommend listening to something else from the Cross Tabs back catalogue - it’s great!
012
Reposted by Matthew Price
Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Great headline from BBC News
BBC News headline:
Unpredictable outcome likely in
Bexley
17645104
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Totally agree. The genuinely new information from these results will mostly be about differential turnout, tactical voting, candidate effects, etc. We already know loads about voters' party preferences from the polls!
140
Reposted by Matthew Price
Tom Roberts @tpgroberts.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
That's the west coast mainline for you
372267416
Reposted by Matthew Price
Damian Haywood @damohaywood.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Mad fact... 42% of Labour Prime Ministers have had to fire Peter Mandelson.
291370392
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the first three episodes of this new podcast from @jlowen.bsky.social at @nestauk.bsky.social. Sharing in the hope it gets more attention and some clever SpAd nicks one or two ideas.
030
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
A lot has been written about the consequences of electoral fragmentation in Britain - but I want to know your best theory of the causes. Why now? What happened to Duverger's Law? What makes it possible in the UK but not the US?
010
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Everyone should read this (esp. if you spend a lot of time on this site).
021
Reposted by Matthew Price
James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
A decision tree guide to political analysis for the cynical
0123
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
YouGov are experienced, reputable etc. But personally I don’t see how Reform could be on 23% nationally and win 29% in Gorton and Denton.
710
Reposted by Matthew Price
Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 23/02/2026
There's a weird thing in UK politics. Labour treats Reform as largely correct on the merits but bad at implementation. It treats the Greens as wrong on the merits and so good at implementation they will destroy the country. But that's... the opposite of how their actual likely voters feel?
16388105
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
The Workers' Party won 10% of the vote in Gorton and Denton in 2024, but none of those voters are in the poll from Omnisis. How many of them will vote? Probably not many. Who will they vote for? Probably the Greens. But we can't be sure! In a race this tight, it's a massive unknown.
120
Reposted by Matthew Price
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 13/02/2026
These charts show how Trump is isolating the US on the world stage
theguardian.com
These charts show how Trump is isolating the US on the world stage
Analysis shows that the world is moving closer to China, as Trump’s isolationism rears its head at the United Nations
1115778
Reposted by Matthew Price
Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
The untold story that is told constantly and isn’t really true
1671222206
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Macron desperately needs Trump to get interested in Réunion.
010
Reposted by Matthew Price
Oliver White @oliverdwwhite.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Which polling company does not include the Greens as an option?!? Which models include reassigning the answers of previous Labour voters?!? Please just ASK THE POLLING COMPANIES why there is a difference!
231
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Fascinating as usual from my colleague @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social. Come for the Simpsons memes, stay for the lesson in US political realignment.
051
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
I think it would be helpful if this article explained the difference between the single market and the customs union, and the implications for the UK. Instead, all of the analysis is through the lens of “who’s up, who’s down” cabinet Kremlinology.
theguardian.com
Starmer says closer ties with EU single market preferable to a customs union
Prime minister gives clearest sign yet that government is seeking to further deepen Britain’s links with Brussels
050
Reposted by Matthew Price
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
If you don't already read @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social's substack and you're into British politics, can I recommend doing so as a New Year's Resolution? Always enjoyable and thought provoking in equal measure - although maybe pass on this one if you're a Labour diehard and don't want to spoil NYEve!
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Two Voting Predictions For 2026
One obvious, one with potential
52910
Reposted by Matthew Price
Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 09/12/2025
Big new blogpost! My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more. --> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
screenshot of my post
28804313
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Somebody ctrl+f that one guy’s name when the files are released.
061
Reposted by Matthew Price
Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 16/11/2025
As immigration dominates the brief this morning, here’s my two cents on the salience vs. the importance of the issue: labourlist.org/2025/11/immi... (Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
labourlist.org
'Bread, circuses, and polling errors: Are we truly measuring what matters?' - LabourList
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the public’s outlook argues Labour Together's Calum Weir.
21811
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
It was fascinating to work on this research with @hopenothate.org.uk. All political parties are coalitions of voters with different preferences, but current supporters of Reform are especially disparate. The big question is how long Farage can keep them all on side.
051
Reposted by Matthew Price
Amber Dellar @amberdellar.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Performance Tracker 2025: Schools | Institute for Government
It will be extremely difficult for the government to meet its education priorities within the budget it has set for the coming parliament.
11516
Reposted by Matthew Price
Nick Valentino @nickvalentino.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/... The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
electionstudies.org
2016-2020-2024-panel-merged-study - ANES | American National Election Studies
7206100
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
A quarter of 18-34 y/o men spoiled their vote in the Irish presidential election, per @kevcunningham.bsky.social
041
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
Now that’s an age curve.
A chart showing the proportion of people who believe Thatcher was the greatest Prime Minister of the last 50 years, ranging from 7% for 18-24s to 49% for over 65s.
020
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Chris continues to perform a public service by sharing new boundary notional results (and credit also to the BBC for paying for them and allowing them to be public).
030
Reposted by Matthew Price
James Ball @jamesrball.com · 12/09/2025
Important bit of new polling from @deltapoll.bsky.social: ask people for the top issue facing the country and immigration is second, at 49%. But ask what’s most important for *them* and it drops to fourth, at just 21%. That gap might suggest a way out of Labour’s mess…
thenewworld.co.uk
Exclusive poll: how Labour can win on immigration
A new opinion survey finds that people see immigration as a problem for Britain, but when it comes to their own lives, they have other priorities
88524
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
While it’s true that Labour has become unduly obsessed with the threat from Reform while it loses voters to its left, it’s also true that there are far more Lab-Reform marginals than Lab-Lib or Lab-Green ones. And in those seats, votes lost to Reform count double.
020
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
Painfully recognisable to anyone who has ever been involved in left-wing politics.
Private meetings in the autumn of 2024 engendered further divisions: attendees spent their time “furiously agreeing with each other” on the basic politics, in the words of one, while disagreeing with the way gatherings were organised.
160
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
This from @owenwntr.bsky.social is excellent. There’s a limit to how much you can learn from precinct-level data, but this piece goes right up to that limit.
owenwinter.co.uk
Who voted for Zohran Mamdani?
Zohram Mamdani’s triumph over Andrew Cuomo in the New York City Democratic primary signals a shift towards the progressive wing of the party. Mamdani excelled among younger, Hispanic, and Asi…
1111
Reposted by Matthew Price
Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time
16644220
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Telling paragraph on culture at the ONS from the Devereux Review.
This in turn reflects what many reported as a reluctance, at senior levels, to hear and act on difficult news. The organisation had established values to be radical, ambitious, inclusive, sustainable. And the experience during the pandemic well illustrates how such values can drive extraordinary behaviour and results. Unfortunately, the lesson learned seems to have been “all things are possible”, without the nuance that this is typically only true when there is an overwhelming emergency, which understandably de-prioritises many other activities. Several people suggested that the list of values was missing “realistic”.
010
Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Right now on political prediction markets you can place bets on Newsom, AOC, Buttigieg, Shapiro, and Harris to be the Dem nominee in 28 and more than double your stake if it ends up being any of them. Good deal?
000
Reposted by Matthew Price
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Polls often get criticized unfairly. But in #NYCmayor, they had an unambiguously bad night. Mamdani averaged 28.5% of 1st-place votes in the last 4 independent polls of the race. He currently has 43.5%.
210711