iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Gordon Pennycook @gordpennycook.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

We have a new paper on AI debunking that includes a bunch of interesting data on various "epistemically suspect beliefs". Check it out!

1176

Reposted by George Georgarakis

David Rand @dgrand.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

🚨New WP: Protecting users from AI persuasion🚨 🔸A 1-paragraph AI literacy treatment (explaining AIs can be told to pursue non-accuracy goals/to persuade) cuts AI dialogue political persuasion by ~half! 🔸No sig effect on general genAI trust arxiv.org/abs/2609.16432 w/ @rorchinik.bsky.social

24015

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

🚨New Science Advances🚨 Untrustworthy sources on Facebook and Instagram in 2020: Concentrated exposure but no attitudinal effects www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... -Exposure very low but highly concentrated -Reducing exposure by ~70% for months had no measurable effects *even among frequent consumers*

39637

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

One of the most intriguing papers I read during the last years 👇

2104

Reposted by George Georgarakis

davidbroska.bsky.social @davidbroska.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Americans say they want less inequality. Why don’t they support policies to reduce it? New paper: across 31 nationally representative survey waves (N=384,248) and a preregistered experiment (N=1,009), Americans favor PREdistributive over REdistributive policies 🧵 osf.io/preprints/so...

87228

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Thomas J Wood @thomasjwood.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Given declining US confidence in institutions overall, striking that low election confidence is *not* a secular trend--instead 2020 is the disjuncture. Plot shows the winner/loser effect demonstrated by Charles Stewart and others. Data from @mitelectionlab.bsky.social

054

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Jon Green @jongreen.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Converse'd

131

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

I am excited to announce the beta release of @verasight.io’s Free AI Survey Programming Tool: Doc2Survey, that automatically converts any survey drafted in a Word or Google Doc to a programmed Qualtrics survey (.qsf file). We are making Doc2Survey available for free! www.verasight.io/doc2survey

34219

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Sacha Altay @sachaltay.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

One of my favorites paper got published 🤓 It covers a lot of ground and it’s the best summary of my views on misinformation and what to do about it. Give it a read :) 🔓 osf.io/preprints/ps... 👉 doi.org/10.1177/1461...

212945

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Online hostility is predicted by economic & political inequality Inequality breeds online hostility because people crave status in unequal societies and status-seekers constitute the main perpetrators of hostility in political settings, whether online or offline. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

46327

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

Very nice paper, to be more spicy I would say it shows how both sides of the "is moderation good" debate misread the implications of spatial models of political competition (or, if you must, the "median voter theorem")

174

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

Ideologically rating social science academic article abstracts (using a fixed contemporary ideological scale) finds that 90% lean left & all disciplines showed leftward movement from 1990-2024, especially on cultural issues. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

link.springer.com

The ideological orientation of academic social science research 1960–2024 - Theory and Society

This study analyzes approximately 600,000 English-language social science abstracts published between 1960 and 2024 to estimate the long-run ideological orientation of disciplinary research output. La...

7102

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Thomas J Wood @thomasjwood.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Political Science's academic job market having its worst post-Covid year -- almost 20% fewer jobs than at the same point in the previous cycle (which itself was bad!) Data scraped from APSA ejobs pdfs.

35233

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Tobias Dienlin @tobiasdienlin.com · 17/03/2026

Great blog post! I’ve had the exact same experience. When I started using CFAs I realized (a) many established scales and (b) almost all inverted/negated items don’t work. Needs to be shared more widely.

1154

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Yamil Ricardo Velez @yamilrvelez.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

New paper with Stephanie Zonszein! Political news is more important than ever, but local papers are shuttering across the US. In recent years, innovative community-centered outlets led by journalists have taken to WhatsApp and social media to reach groups such as immigrants. What are their effects?

12412

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

Do conjoint/factorial/vignette experiments reflect choices in the real world? Are hypothetical scenarios in the artificial survey context externally valid? Do hypothetical bias, intention-behavior gap and social desirability biases undermine validity? Two cautionary studies on this question:

47926

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

New paper with Don Green and @ethanvporter.bsky.social in the QJPS. After much deliberation, we went with a title that just states the result. 📝 journal: www.emerald.com/qjps/article...

abstract: While attempts to change Americans’ partisanship via persuasive treatments largely fail, partisanship can and does change over time. In this paper, the authors first confirm, via survey and field experiments, that typical campaign messaging in the United States does not budge partisanship. The authors then present experiments in which participants encounter extraordinary hypothetical scenarios (e.g. one party causes economic collapse) before reporting what their partisanship would be under such circumstances. Twelve percent of partisans imagine switching parties in the pro-out-party hypothetical conditions, compared with 5% in the control hypotheticals in which the status quo persists, for a seven-percentage point (SE 1.5 points) difference. These hypothetical shifts are on par with the largest changes in American macropartisanship ever recorded. While the act of ruminating on hypothetical scenarios is not followed by changes in partisanship measured post-treatment, the evidence suggests that extraordinary world events may be able to shift partisan affiliation.

24620

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 21/03/2026

Psychology has a whole cottage industry in which people come up with some construct that is essentially "attitudes/beliefs/expectations/feelings about X", and then the central claim is that this construct is a super important determinant of future X outcomes.>

1416837

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

“Conflict entrepreneurs”--leaders who frequently use personal insults—are damaging democracy. An analysis of 2.2 million public statements from members of Congress finds that this type of rhetoric is linked to increased media coverage, but has no other benefits. academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...

34718

Reposted by George Georgarakis

American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

New in our FirstView!: Elite Partisan Disagreement and Military Victory: Evidence from South Korean Battle Experiments by MICHAEL F. JOSEPH, JOON H. CHUNG, and HUI SEONG PARK. doi.org/10.1017/S000...

083

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

www.poynter.org/ifcn/2026/if...

0408

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Adam Berinsky @adamberinsky.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

New working paper: Rethinking Misinformation Interventions. The field has spent years searching for the one intervention that will solve misinformation. This search is the wrong approach — and our disappointment says more about our expectations than our tools. (1/5) osf.io/preprints/so...

osf.io

OSF

23924

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

"Is Support for Authoritarian Rule Contagious? Evidence from Field and Survey Experiments" www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo...

32411

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

A new paper in Science measured the prevalence of social sycophancy across 11 leading large language models. The model’s responses were nearly 50% more sycophantic than humans’, even when users engaged in unethical, illegal, or harmful behaviors. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

18452

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Yiqing Xu @yiqingxu.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

1/🧵 A major update to our paper: "Scaling Reproducibility" w/ Leo Yang [Cross-posted from X] We move beyond reanalyzing a single design to (almost) full-paper replication! Paper: bit.ly/repro-ai

22612

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

Mind blowing data. The magnitude of differences from 2024 to 2025 are not unlike the difference in asking people how much they would like to eat a BLT versus a shit sandwich.

25721

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

While social media shows you extreme content, AI is more likely to show people more moderate content This means the technology, on average, could have very different effects on polarization. www.ft.com/content/3880...

2317

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Featuring key changes in AI policies this year

1175

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

The SCORE investigation of repeatability and credibility is a lot. There are a few ways to get your head around it. 1: The Nature collection includes 3 papers from SCORE, an amazing paper from @i4replication.bsky.social and several commentaries about the work. www.nature.com/collections/... 1/

nature.com

Reliable research in the social and behavioural and sciences

Sweeping new investigations probe the replication, robustness and reproducibility of results across the behavioural and social sciences.

13328

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

In this commentary, some of the SCORE organizers discuss the implications of the SCORE findings and the opportunity to develop scalable indicators of research trustworthiness, on many dimensions. Preprint on MetaArXiv: osf.io/preprints/me...

0157

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Robb Willer @robbwiller.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

@nature.com has published three groundbreaking papers on reproducibility, analytical robustness, and replicability across the social sciences. Sincere thanks are due to the many folks who contributed to these projects. It’s painstaking work, and a great service to social science.

16519

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Feel free to borrow/steal---the source is here: github.com/pos5747/notes The goal is a *still relevant* course on parametric models that can sit alongside a course on more agnostic methods for causal inference. *These are in-progress and written in the pre-Claude Code era.

github.com

GitHub - pos5747/notes: Notes for POS 5747

Notes for POS 5747. Contribute to pos5747/notes development by creating an account on GitHub.

0132

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

Updated versions of my misinformation and experiments course syllabi now posted: Political Misinformation and Conspiracy Theories sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/files/... Experiments in Politics sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/files/...

08016

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com · 11/03/2026

"Violence can destroy power; it is utterly incapable of creating it." -- Hannah Arendt www.jstor.org/stable/23025...

Aerial Bombing and Counterinsurgency in the
Vietnam War

Matthew Adam Kocher Yale University
Thomas B. Pepinsky Cornell University
Stathis N. Kalyvas Yale University

Aerial bombardment has been an important component of counterinsurgency practice since shortly after it became a viable military technology in the early twentieth century. Due to the nature of insurgency, bombing frequently occurs in and around settled areas, and consequently it tends to generate many civilian casualties. However, the effectiveness of bombing civilian areas as a military tactic remains disputed. Using data disaggregated to the level of the smallest population unit and measured at multiple points in time, this article examines the effect of aerial bombardment on the pattern of local control
in the Vietnam War. A variety of estimation methods, including instrumental variables and genetic matching, show that bombing civilians systematically shifted control in favor of the Viet Cong insurgents.

18033

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Daniel Lakens @lakens.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

I wish more people knew this. Power analysis should be based on the smallest effect size of interest. Not on a guess, or a hope. You also need to specify that effect to make your claim falsifiable, and to know when the effect is statistically significant, but practically irrelevant.

14412

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

You want to conduct semi-structured interviews at scale via voice or chat? @maxmlang.bsky.social offers an open-source framework for you to use: OASIS oasis-surveys.github.io github.com/oasis-survey...

0145

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

In a large global study (N = 49,968, 68 countries) we found that the open-mindedness aspect of intellectual humility was the strongest predictor for rejecting conspiracy beliefs out of 17 potential individual difference measures. osf.io/preprints/ps...

56227

Reposted by George Georgarakis

David Broockman @dbroockman.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

New short paper w @jkalla.bsky.social ! Candidates gain from moderation, but less than many theories expect. Many conclude voters must not care about issues. This is wrong. Small *average* effects mask large effects on specific issues & are consistent with widespread issue-based voting 🧵

310435

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

Remarkable - despite a brutal map for Ds, anti-Trump backlash has driven the Kalshi market for Senate party control next year to 50/50 kalshi.com/markets/cont...

47611

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Gordon Pennycook @gordpennycook.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

My own take on power analyses: I'm good with "we had xx power to detect effects as big as xx" but find "we made a pseudo-random guess about an effect size & determined that we need a sample of N=[some highly specific number]" to be too close to cosplay for me.

3457

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

How much does it pay to publish an open access academic book? Read this thread for my story and 💲💰 amounts. 🧵 www.routledge.com/9781032908724

812927

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Oleg Urminsky @olegurminsky.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

When you collect data online, are the results from humans or AI? In a project led by Booth PhD student Grace Zhang, we estimate the prevalence of AI agents on commonly used survey platforms: osf.io/preprints/ps... 🧵

osf.io

OSF

410850

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 05/03/2026

New: The effects of political advertising on Facebook & Instagram before the 2020 US election www.nature.com/articles/s41... Most ads targeted towards supporters; fundraising most common. No detectable effects of removing political ads on many outcomes across both platforms & among both Ds & Rs.

0276

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Polcom Vienna @polcomvienna.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

#IPKW welcomed ~80 guests for the alumni #ScienceSlam on “The Future of Truth–How Fact-Checking Must Change in the Age of #AI, #Deepfakes and Social Media.” Great contributions by @gngeorgarakis.bsky.social, Claudia Wilhelm @jamoeberl.bsky.social and more! Looking forward to another event soon!👏🔬

021

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Annie Waldherr @anniewald.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

@ipk-univie.bsky.social is wrapping up #ica25 in Denver! From awards to withdrawn presentations, we‘ve had it all this year. Sending warm greetings & thoughts to all colleagues who could not participate 🫶✨

04315

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Sophie Lecheler @solecheler.bsky.social · 14/06/2025

@polcomvienna.bsky.social at the #ica25, come see our presentations!

1378

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Tobias Dienlin @tobiasdienlin.com · 12/06/2025

Tomorrow at #ica25, I’ll present the paper „A simple future for media effects“. @yesuncomm.bsky.social, @lennertcoenen.bsky.social, & I argue that complexity has become a dogma. Instead, let’s value parsimony & regularities. 📌: Fr 6/13, 9am, Mt Blue Sky, Hyatt Preprint: osf.io/preprints/os...

3285

Reposted by George Georgarakis

Kristian Frederiksen @kristianvsf.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

🛎️New WP with @morganlcj.bsky.social @timallinger.bsky.social and @danbischof.bsky.social Against the surge of conjoints and other hypothetical experiments in relation to democratic backsliding, we study the consequences of using hypotheticals versus real-world scenarios. osf.io/preprints/os...

15218