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Peter K. Enns

@peterenns.bsky.social
1K followers 380 following 65 posts

peterenns.org Professor of Government & Public Policy, Cornell University; Robert S. Harrison Director of socialsciences.cornell.edu; Co-founder, www.verasight.io

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Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 9h
Excited to join ruthigielnik.bsky.social, @gelliottmorris.com, @patrickruffini.bsky.social, and Michael Bailey to discuss The State of Polling 2026 at the Political Analytics Conference in Washington DC this Friday: politicalanalyticsconference.com
politicalanalyticsconference.com
Political Analytics 2026
are the numbers on the wall?   October 8th & 9th, 2026 | Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. More details & registration information to follow
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
For political scientists headed to Liverpool for EPOP this week (and anyone else interested!), @bjpols.bsky.social has made a collection of articles available on elections, public opinion and parties free to read...
cambridge.org
EPOP collection
EPOP collection
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Verasight @verasight.io · 09/09/2026
Thanks to @gelliottmorris.com for including Verasight research from @peterenns.bsky.social and @joeymarshall.bsky.social in his new article "All polls are models now." Read Elliott's article: gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-15... 1/3
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Survey 160 has job descriptions up for for two business development roles, a business development manager and a business development associate. The job listings are below, but I want to highlight two things about these roles. www.survey160.com/business-dev... www.survey160.com/business-dev...
survey160.com
Business Development Manager — Survey 160
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Verasight @verasight.io · 05/09/2026
Today is the LAST DAY to submit your free survey question at APSA. Meet the Verasight team at Booth 417 to submit your question on a nationally representative survey of 1,000 U.S. adults. 1/2
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Taegan Goddard @politicalwire.com · 04/09/2026
Forecast Strongly Favors Democrats to Win House politicalwire.com/2026/09/04/foreca…
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Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Thanks to "This Week in Social Science" for featuring my recent article: TWISS #74: Affluence and Influence? twissweekly.substack.com/p/twiss-74-a...
twissweekly.substack.com
TWISS #74: Affluence and Influence?
Public Opinion May Matter More Than We Think
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Verasight @verasight.io · 03/09/2026
Democrats have an 8 in 10 chance of winning a majority in the U.S. House this fall, according to a new forecast from Verasight co-founder and Chief Data Scientist @peterenns.bsky.social and Cornell University co-authors Leigh Farah, Claudia L. Miner, and Thomas Gareau-Paquette. 1/4
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Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I’m looking forward to presenting our 2026 Midterm forecast of every House district (w/ Leigh Farah, Claudia Miner, and @thomasgp.bsky.social) tomorrow AM at #APSA2026. convention2.allacademic.com/one/apsa/aps...
convention2.allacademic.com
APSA Annual Meeting & Exhibition 2026
Content is hosted by All Academic Inc, a leading provider of online hosting and software solutions for academic conferences supporting submission, peer review, scheduling, invitaions, volunteers, sche...
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 16/08/2026
This new study from @adambonica.bsky.social on how Democratic spam PACs “hook and squeeze” vulnerable elderly donors is so disturbing—starting with the opening disclaimer that both the NYT & Bulwark declined to publish it after a year of legal review.
data4democracy.substack.com
Hook and Squeeze
How Democratic consultants, committees, and party leaders built a fundraising spam pipeline that funnels money from a captive pool of elderly donors into their own operations.
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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
What if our leaders are actually more responsive to public opinion than we think? @gelliottmorris.com speaks with @peterenns.bsky.social, a political scientist at Cornell University, whose research offers an optimistic view of democracy and representation. opiniontoday.substack.com/i/210731734/...
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Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
I really appreciate the great conversation w/ @gelliottmorris.com about my recent research. Here's a short summary of my overall argument: medium.com/p/b60d0440e756.
medium.com
One of the Most Prominent Findings in Political Science Might Be Wrong
Which means your voice matters more than you’ve been told!
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Nils Steiner @nilssteiner.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
We are hiring a postdoc in Comparative Politics at JGU Mainz! Join our friendly and productive team, led by Armin Schäfer (@arminschaefer.bsky.social). • Full-time position • Five-year contract (!) • Start: from 1 October Apply by 22 August: stellenboerse.uni-mainz.de/jgu/job/56328 Please share!
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Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Building on work by @hillaryvipond.bsky.social, @justinwolfers.bsky.social explains why Victorian bootmakers should remind us that a big technological shock does not always mean a collapse in the total number of jobs: open.substack.com/pub/platypus...
open.substack.com
What Bootmakers Can Teach Us About AI
Anthropic's CEO warns AI could erase half of entry-level jobs. Victorian England suggests a different possibility.
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Verasight @verasight.io · 31/07/2026
Verasight co-founder and Chief Data Scientist @peterenns.bsky.social was quoted in a @newsweek.com story by reporter Andrew Stanton: "How Trump's Approval Rating Changed With White Non-College Educated Voters." 1/n
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Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com · 26/07/2026
Americans have more confidence in higher education than in big tech companies, and the gap is growing rather than shrinking. The higher ed-doomsday pundits need to get on board with the real vibe shift in public trust that is happening right now.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 23/07/2026
I’ll be presenting research I did with @verasight.io in 2025-26 on using LLMs for survey data generation at the Analyst Institute’s 2026 conference in Washington, DC tomorrow morning. Email me if you want to grab a coffee or chat! members.analystinstitute.org/wp-login.php...
members.analystinstitute.org
Log In ‹ Analyst Institute — WordPress
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Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Why survey sample type no longer offers a clear signal about data accuracy: www.verasight.io/reports/prob...
verasight.io
Probability-Based Samples Are No Longer a Survey Quality Heuristic | Verasight
Collapsing response rates and nonignorable nonresponse mean a probability sample no longer signals whether a survey accurately represents the population.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 21/07/2026
First article about our monthly Strength In Numbers/ @verasight.io poll is up today - 59% say gas price hikes have forced them to cut back spending - 51% blame Trump - 68% say prices will influence their vote in Nov. Cake may already be baked on Iran fallout open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com
Poll: 59% say gas price hikes have forced them to cut back spending; 51% blame Trump
Plus: Americans rate Trump’s mental fitness almost as bad as Biden’s during his term
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Verasight @verasight.io · 13/07/2026
We see minimal to basically no impact on the whole in switching the author to a computer. That’s pretty disconcerting.” @snsoroka.bsky.social of UCLA on his student Jun Luo's paper “Beyond Credibility: How News Topic and Cognitive Processing Shape Responses to AI-Authored Journalism.”
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Verasight @verasight.io · 10/07/2026
Get to know the amazing researchers who submitted questions to our 2026 Society of Behavioral Medicine Omnibus survey. Then, see how our representative panel of 300,000+ Americans responded.
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Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Interesting work by @kwcollins.bsky.social and @survey160.bsky.social on LLMs, coding text, and limitations.
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Verasight @verasight.io · 15/06/2026
Four studies. One year. The same conclusion. We tested whether AI can replace survey respondents, from simple persona prompts to a from scratch steelman pipeline. Synthetic samples are predictions, not measurements. New review from @gelliottmorris.com, @peterenns.bsky.social, and Benjamin Leff.
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Inequality and Distributive Politics - IDP @inqdp.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
4/6 🧵 In Sociological Science Enns questions recent findings that policy responds more to the preferences of more affluent citizens. Restricting attention to cases of disagreements under certain conditions can generate a spurious estimate of unresponsiveness to the poor doi.org/hb2f6c
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Roper Center @ropercenter.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Never-before-seen data from top Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg! Download reports and banner books from his US work for Bill Clinton and Al Gore, as well as his political surveys in Bolivia, Israel, and Vienna! bit.ly/4dUp3Rd
Stan Greenberg headshot
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Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
This Could Be the Worst Ebola Outbreak in History: I added two figures - from the same article - that extend the x-axis, which I think more clearly illustrate how much faster confirmed cases are accelerating that prior outbreaks. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Why This Ebola Outbreak Could End Up Being the Worst One in History
The situation in eastern Congo and Uganda combines some of the most dangerous aspects of the 2014 and 2018 Ebola outbreaks.
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Big Data Kane @cmwitko.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
What if polling organizations aren’t just passive recorders of political sentiment but also shape the agendas of other policy institutions? Qian Zhang @peterenns.bsky.social and I ask this question in @psjeditor.bsky.social (open access) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
<em>Policy Studies Journal</em> | PSO Public Policy Journal | Wiley Online Library
Polling organizations, like other policy actors, must prioritize certain issues. We argue that, for normative and financial reasons, pollsters prioritize issues that are viewed as important by other ...
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Nick Valentino @nickvalentino.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
The new ANES Board of advisors met this week in Ann Arbor to begin planning the 2028 study. It is a fantastic group and the PIs are very grateful for their dedication to the project and to the discipline. Once more unto the breach, dear friends!
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Verasight @verasight.io · 03/06/2026
We built an AI "digital twin" and tested it against human survey respondents. Across 16 questions it still missed by 6.6 points on average. The gap held across every model and method we tried. New study from @gelliottmorris.com, @peterenns.bsky.social, and Benjamin Leff. Link in reply.
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Hey look yet ANOTHER study, this one from @gelliottmorris.com, @peterenns.bsky.social, and Ben Leff showing that digital twins don't work www.verasight.io/reports/can-...
verasight.io
Can AI "Digital Twins" Replace Human Survey Respondents? | Verasight
Verasight ran four experiments on AI "digital twins." Synthetic samples can match polls on Trump approval and the generic ballot, but fail systematically on almost everything else.
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Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
As companies begin to sell synthetic (AI-generated) survey responses, new research with @gelliottmorris.com and Ben Leff shows why you should be extremely skeptical of this approach: www.verasight.io/reports/can-...
verasight.io
Can AI "Digital Twins" Replace Human Survey Respondents? | Verasight
Verasight ran four experiments on AI "digital twins." Synthetic samples can match polls on Trump approval and the generic ballot, but fail systematically on almost everything else.
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David Rothschild @davmicrot.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Preprint "Reply to Westwood: Questioning empirical evidence that AI survey contamination is real and substantial" w/ @soubhikbarari.bsky.social, Trent Buskirk, @andrewgordon.bsky.social, Sunshine Hillygus We respond to claims of "existential threat" of AI on survey research osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
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Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Indeed, 100 days out, economic conditions and incumbent sentiment account for the outcome in every state: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Understanding Biden’s Exit and the 2024 Election: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model | PS: Political Science &amp; Politics | Cambridge Core
Understanding Biden’s Exit and the 2024 Election: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model - Volume 58 Issue 2
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Verasight @verasight.io · 17/05/2026
We are excited to see 3 new peer-reviewed studies using Verasight survey data published in April. Browse our growing bibliography:
verasight.io
Verasight Featured Academic Bibliography
We are excited by the growing list of peer-reviewed academic publications that rely on Verasight data.
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Arnout van de Rijt @arnoutvanderijt.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
"I show that the seemingly innocuous decision to restrict analyses to data where different income groups’ policy support differs (i.e., a preference gap exists) introduced Simpson’s paradox" Just out in our journal, @sociologicalsci.bsky.social
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Peter K. Enns @peterenns.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Requiring ID verification up front is NOT a good strategy for survey research. There are better ways to validate respondents and to incorporate ID verification:
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 12/05/2026
Timely research from me and the Verasight team on how poorly “digital twins“ and “synthetic samples” replicate human response patterns (see Gallup news)
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Verasight @verasight.io · 12/05/2026
Some survey organizations now require ID verification to improve data quality. Unfortunately, requiring all respondents to upload government-issued IDs produces biased survey data. A new Verasight report makes the case against mandatory ID verification and offers a better path forward.
verasight.io
How Standard Approaches to ID Verification Bias Survey Data | Verasight
Requiring government ID verification from every survey respondent biases data, excludes vulnerable groups, and skews sam
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 12/05/2026
Moderate Democrat Ruben Gallego comes out in support of packing the Court. Also popular with a plurality of Americans, including independents, according to our Strength In Numbers/ @verasight.io polling: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/two-thirds...
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Verasight @verasight.io · 09/05/2026
The Verasight booth (#0402) has been busy at PAA 2026. Grateful to meet so many researchers excited to ask a question to our verified panel of 1,000 nationally representative sample of Americans. There’s still time for you to stop by! @popassocamerica.bsky.social
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Keri Blakinger @keribla.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
The government appears to be trying to privatize the federal prison system piecemeal. This month, they've put out several RFIs for vendors to take over things like food services (!), medical (!!) and commissary. For example, here's the food services one:
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Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Is government policy actually “virtually unrelated to the desires of the low- and middle-income citizens”? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/05/05/5...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Is government policy actually “virtually unrelated to the desires of the low- and middle-income citizens”? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Verasight @verasight.io · 07/05/2026
Despite high-profile arguments to the contrary, elected courts are not less legitimate than appointed ones. Michael J. Nelson & James L. Gibson, drawing on 28K+ state-level survey responses fielded with Verasight, in a new Political Research Quarterly piece. doi.org/10.1177/10659129251393695
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Lee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
You know what would make this gross racial gerrymandering impossible? Yes: proportional representation. leedrutman.substack.com/p/the-suprem...
leedrutman.substack.com
The Supreme Court killed voting rights and escalated the gerrymandering wars. Here’s what Congress needs to do in response
The racial gerrymandering free-for-all is now on. The only real solution is proportional representation.
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Verasight @verasight.io · 07/05/2026
PAA 2026 starts today in St. Louis, and Verasight, at Booth 0402, is set up and ready to share an offer for attendees: One free question added to a national survey of 1,000 verified panelists. @popassocamerica.bsky.social
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Important corrective to influential article
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Klaus Pforr @klauspforr.eurosky.social · 05/05/2026
Interesting paper by @peterenns.bsky.social on a severe methodological artifact in policy responsiveness research sociologicalscience.com/articles-v13...
sociologicalscience.com
How a Seemingly Innocuous and Intuitive Methodological Choice Confused a Generation of Research on Policy Responsiveness
Article: How a Seemingly Innocuous and Intuitive Methodological Choice Confused a Generation of Research on Policy Responsiveness | Sociological Science | Posted May 4, 2026
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Gilens' data shows responsiveness to low-income public opinion for both issues where affluent favor change more & less. Seeming lack of responsiveness is due to a higher rate of policy change when the rich favor more Article: sociologicalscience.com/articles-v13... Post: medium.com/3streams/one...
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3 Streams blog @3streamsblog.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Think policy is not responsive to the public? Not so fast. Thought-provoking new post by @peterenns.bsky.social based new on research in @sociologicalsci.bsky.social
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