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Eric Lofgren

@germsandnumbers.bsky.social
4.2K followers 966 following 346 posts

Computational Epidemiologist and Associate Prof at WSU. Maker of artisinal, small-batch simulation models for the discerning infectious disease consumer. WoW and zombie epidemiology. Adopter of dogs. Not taking this terribly seriously. He/him.

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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 6h
In retrospect, a somewhat obvious thought. If generative AI makes us all say...10 times as productive, and it's so straightforward that we all should be using it... Doesn't that leave us in exactly the same place we were, just with a higher peer review burden?
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Asheesh Kapur Siddique @asheeshks.org · 30/09/2026
Democrats defend "science," but what they really should be defending is "wissenschaft." No major social problems - from global warming to AI - can be solved without non-commercial research across multiple fields, including the social sciences and humanities. Really wish the party understood this.
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Tadashi Fukami @fukamit.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Systems Ecology, a new journal launched today, "run by researchers, for researchers, and is free to read and free to publish, with no article processing charges" systems-ecology.org/index.php/se...
systems-ecology.org
Systems Ecology
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
So ah...Elsevier's been hacked. This is what you get visiting their site - which I did trying to buy a textbook >.< Credit for the image is Reddit.
A somewhat incoherent ransomware notice.
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
I am disturbed, as both a lapsed Catholic and an avid Warhammer player, how often current events have caused me to unironically make the statement "I'm pretty sure that's heretical."
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I used to do more biodefense work than I do now. The whole AI-driven pathogen development fear is *not new*. There were worries about the development of synthetic viruses, etc. for bioterror back when I was in undergrad, that hit all the same notes.
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Working on a problem with using AI example for a class. Claude: "Good catch — Scandinavia never made it into the coastline data at all." Good news Sweden, Norway and Finland, the Promised Anthropic Apocalypse will not be coming for you. (Denmark and Iceland, sorry, it knows about you)
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
No context quotes from my household: "So I was sitting there wondering why my life is being consumed by mediocrity, and then I remembered I was in Qdoba."
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Ed @notdred.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Also this oral history of the making of cutscenes is a fantastic read. Complete with unexpected appearance by @astrokatie.com and a side discussion of whether there’s capitalism in space?? Everything an oral history should be down to the fantastic kicker.
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Darcy James Argue @darcyjamesargue.com · 27/08/2026
I wrote “Codebreaker” as a commission from the West Point Jazz Knights. I thought long and hard about whether I would accept a commission from the U.S. Military Academy, and if so, what that piece would be. I settled on a musical tribute to Alan Turing. He was, and remains, my favorite antifascist.
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The Ferrari Lab @theferrarilab.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The distinction is important and has been a know issue for years. “Measles” is rarely the cause recorded on an autopsy record or in household surveys; pneumonia or diarrhea (dehydration) at the more likely proximate causes due to secondary infection.
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Joel @itsjoels.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
This is the letter kids got at the end of Dolly’s Imagination Library. I defy you to read this and not cry.
Sorry, I can’t type that.
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Library of Congress @librarycongress.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
The Library is devastated to learn of the passing of Dolly Parton, a music legend and titan of children's literacy. Her Imagination Library program has earned multiple Library Literacy Awards and, in 2018, she visited us to donate its 100 millionth book to our collection and host a story time. 🦋❤️
Dolly Parton reads to children in the Library’s Great Hall in 2018. Photo by Shawn Miller.
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Microplastics Sommelier @leastactionhero.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
RIP to a legend
rob dubbin @robdubbin

MY MAN: (comes home)
ME: (nervous) how was the store
MY MAN: fine
ME: oh thank g-
MY MAN: ran into jolene
ME: oh no
MY MAN: she mentioned you left kind of an intense voicemail

12:50 AM • Jul 29, 2019
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Brooke Harrington @ebharrington.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
This whole thread, but especially this part. "We're going to steal the intellectual property of your faculty, then demand those faculty find use cases for our lying theft machine."
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Daniel Westreich @epidbydesign.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Reminder as fall semester is starting that teaching materials (including lectures + exercises etc.) for my textbook EPIDEMIOLOGY BY DESIGN are available FOR FREE at epidemiologybydesign.com as well as by request to me (including additional, non-public materials if you're a teacher!)
epidemiologybydesign.com
Epidemiology By Design
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Jess Edwards @edwardsjk.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I'm recruiting a postdoc to join a small and collaborative team at UNC focused on causal inference and measurement error in HIV research. Come work with us! unc.peopleadmin.com/postings/324... #episky
unc.peopleadmin.com
Postdoctoral Research Associate
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Department of Epidemiology is recruiting a Postdoctoral Research Associate to contribute to projects related to quantitative epidemiologic methods and H...
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
In honor of the start of the year, reposting my assertion that this scene is the most accurate representation of pre-tenure faculty life that has ever been filmed.
static.klipy.com
The Good Place Chidi Anagonye
ALT: The Good Place Chidi Anagonye
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Rose on Mars @rose.fantasyheartbreaker.com · 27/07/2026
Insanity is writing the same regex twice and expecting the same results.
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Jonathan Howard @joho.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Alina Chan worked hard to remain ignorant of her fellow lab leakers. She knew she couldn’t defend their disinformation so she pretended it didn’t exist and refused to learn about it even though I handed it to her on a silver platter. Toxic apathy.
Alina Chan & @Ayjchan • 1/3/25
Which GDB signatory/signatories spread anti-vaccine disinformation? I would appreciate knowing this as well. Thank you.
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17
个.
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Robert Talisse @roberttalisse.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Preparing my pep talk for the incoming grad students. (The joke is that the explanations will fail.)
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Henry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 19/08/2026
Woah.
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Emjayess @em-jay-ess.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I knew I saved this for a reason!
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Washington State Department of Health @doh.wa.gov · 13/08/2026
Spokane residents impacted by the wildfires can replace lost or destroyed birth, marriage, divorce, and death certificates at no cost. Under the governor’s Emergency Proclamation, we can waive fees for replacement certificates for those affected by the fires.
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Kris 🎃 Lorischild @direkris.itch.io · 13/08/2026
It's so cute when people on the east coast talk about mountains
A topographical map of the US showing that there are far more, and steeper, mountain ranges in the west half of the country.
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Santa Fe Institute @sfiscience.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Applications for the 2027 Complexity Postdoctoral Fellowships are open! Katrin Schmelz just completed SFI’s Complexity Postdoctoral Fellowship, and she reflects on what the experience meant to her. Deadline: September 30, 2026 Requirements & application: santafe.edu/sfifellowship
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Academic lies I tell myself: "This paper is like 400 words over the limit, but that'll be easy to cut." Reader, it is never easy.
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Caroline Baxter @convergingriskslab.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
GUYS. www.science.org/content/arti...
science.org
Shattered skeleton in Scottish castle is first confirmed death from trebuchet
“Devastation” across body of 14th century warrior indicates horrific demise from flying boulder
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The whole "We must work with MAHA" takes aged like Taylor Farms lettuce.
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Madhu Pai, MD, PhD @madhupai.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I've met Dr Fauci and have two publications with him He has advised seven U.S. presidents across 50+ years of public service The man is a public health legend To see him being treated so badly is gutting
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
A cartoon captioned "Watching a Tenured Professor Gracefully and Confidently Dive Into Code They Wrote As a Postdoc" depicting a flawless high dive into a pit of fire and spikes.
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Any "If public health could only communicate better..." talk I go to from now on actively needs a section on robustness (or more accurately lack thereof) to bad actors in positions of power to have any credibility whatsoever.
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Somewhere there's an interesting study to be made of trends in propaganda and misinformation in Quora questions.
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
In my opinion, the appeal of the lab leak hypothesis has always been that it makes the world deterministic, and moves the pandemic back into the realm of politics. Someone Bad did a Bad Thing and Needs to Be Punished. It is soothing in its righteousness.
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
In retrospect, the weirdest part of turning 40 as a dude was suddenly possessing the ability to fall asleep in chairs with remarkable ease.
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Jenni @jennismovingcastle.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The fact that this image is not of Matt Damon but of his lil ripped lady stunt double is 🤌
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Jackson O'Brien @sprobeforebros.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
GREG DAVIES: seems like a kind of a shit task. Everyone just seems like they're going home normally. ALEX HORNE: well before you say that let's have a look at how Odysseus did. cut to panel of AJAX, MENELAUS, AGAMEMNON, and DIOMEDES who are all staring at ODYSSEUS with his head in his hands
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Seth Trueger @mdaware.org · 18/07/2026
youtube.com
Rogue One if it was a Vietnam Movie
YouTube video by Kameron With a K
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Cat Manning @catacalypto.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
deeply annoying that creative breakthroughs don’t come on schedule from direct work but from things like “open-ended conversations with interesting people” and “doing nothing”
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
We talk about the productivity gains of genAI a lot. Has anyone estimated the aggregate time *lost* by everyone getting hit with "Are you a human" tests for literally every site they visit?
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Martin Modrák @modrakm.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Just got my author copy of Bayesian workflow! Check out avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... if you want a copy, a discount code, get source code for our examples and stuff.
Photo of me, holding a copy of the Bayesian Workflow book, smiling like a happy statistician fella that I am.
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Michelle Wille @duckswabber.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Tested hypothesis that LPAI H7 prev increases in wild brids prior to emergence of HPAI H7 + associated outbreaks in poultry. Here, no evidence for this, but relationship b/w puoltry outbreaks and rainfall. 👉 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
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Andrea Matranga @andreamatranga.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
My investor told me he doesn't really see the moat in my plan. I explained that's the point. The glacis protects the base of the wall and obscures the ditch entirely. By the time the assault party reaches the counterscarp with fascines, they will be committed and under crossfire from grapeshot
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Angry Staff Officer @pptsapper.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
“Now we’ll see how professors fight” So much for the tolerant left
20th Maine monument at Gettysburg
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
static.klipy.com
Star Trek Picard
ALT: Star Trek Picard
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
Annual reading
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Angry Staff Officer @pptsapper.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Lee: “there was always a higher duty to Virginia” So that’s why your brother in law and two nephews remained loyal?
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Eric Lofgren @germsandnumbers.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
The kids are alright
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Kathryn VanArendonk @kvanaren.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
my husband is doing fantasy baseball for the first time. he does not follow baseball. his team is run entirely by our 10yo neighbor, who gets a split of his winnings if she helps my husband defeat the rest of the league. they’re in 1st place! but now, a problem: today she left for sleepaway camp
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Ursula Hofer @hoferu.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
A one-stop dashboard for all your Ebola data needs -- well done Dav Ebengo and colleagues!
thelancet.com
Real-time epidemic intelligence in a public health emergency: the 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is currently responding to its 17th recorded Ebola epidemic, declared on May 15, 2026.1 This is only the second outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus (Orthoebolaviru...
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