Sign in

Felix Montag

@fmontag.bsky.social
997 followers 495 following 84 posts

IO Economist working on competition, trade, taxes | Assistant Prof @NYUSternEcon | Affil Fellow @StiglerCenter www.felixmontag.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Felix Montag
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Bottom line: 👉Imports are a weaker check on mergers than they look 👉 Might want behavioral remedies on post-merger AD/CVD petitions For ProMarket, I wrote about the implications this should have for the EU Commission's Merger Guidelines: promarket.org/2026/06/11/t... 8/8
promarket.org
The Merger Guidelines Overlook Trade-Policy Incentives in a Globalized World - ProMarket
The European Union’s draft Merger Guidelines consider import competition from foreign rivals to be a powerful competitive constraint on domestic producers, thus easing clearance for mergers between th...
021
Reposted by Felix Montag
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
New paper: "Mergers and the Demand for Protectionism" When does approving a merger risk undoing the import competition that justified the approval? Paper: felixmontag.com/files/2026_M... CEPR DP: cepr.org/publications... Short 🧵 1/8
Paper title: Mergers and the Demand for Protectionism

Abstract: Current enforcement practice does not consider how mergers alter the merging parties’ incentives to petition for trade protection. I document mergers between domestic producers across jurisdictions that are followed by tariff petitions. I develop a model to characterize the trade-policy channel of mergers. Theoretically, a domestic merger raises the profitability of tariffs when offshoring is unavailable; once offshoring is possible, the effect becomes ambiguous. I apply this framework to a merger between domestic producers in the U.S. appliance industry. Empirically, I find that when import competition is weak, the merging parties prefer to lower their own costs through offshoring; when import competition is strong, the merger makes it more profitable for them to raise their foreign rivals’ costs through tariffs. The resulting consumer harm is comparable in magnitude to the direct market-power effect. A hypothetical cross-border merger reduces the profitability of tariffs in this market.
1105
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Bottom line: 👉Imports are a weaker check on mergers than they look 👉 Might want behavioral remedies on post-merger AD/CVD petitions For ProMarket, I wrote about the implications this should have for the EU Commission's Merger Guidelines: promarket.org/2026/06/11/t... 8/8
promarket.org
The Merger Guidelines Overlook Trade-Policy Incentives in a Globalized World - ProMarket
The European Union’s draft Merger Guidelines consider import competition from foreign rivals to be a powerful competitive constraint on domestic producers, thus easing clearance for mergers between th...
021
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Flip side: a cross-border merger (Whirlpool-LG) does the opposite. A tariff hurts the firm's own production, so it lowers the demand for protection. 7/8
A cross-border makes it less profitable for Whirlpool to petition for tariffs than no merger.
100
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
The annual merger-induced consumer harm from the tariff (i.e., additional harm vs. tariff harm without merger) is comparable to the merger's market-power effect. 6/8
Even if the same tariffs would have been imposed either way, the Whirlpool-Maytag merger increases the harm from those tariffs to U.S. consumers by around $70M per year as compared to offshoring.
100
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
I estimate demand & supply to simulate how the merger changes profitability of tariffs for Whirlpool. Main result: when import competition is strong (i.e., when merger control counts on it) tariffs beat offshoring, and the merger more than doubles Whirlpool's tariff gains. 5/8
While variable profits from tariffs are only mildly higher than from offshoring when import competition is weak, they become significantly more profitable when import competition is strong. The merger more than doubles Whirlpool's profits from tariffs.
110
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Take Whirlpool-Maytag. The US cleared it in 2006, citing foreign competition. Washer imports then surged: from 30% of the market in 2005 toward 55% by 2010. So Whirlpool petitioned: tariffs on washers from Korea & Mexico (2011), China (2015), a global safeguard (2018). 4/8
After the Whirlpool-Maytag merger Whirlpool produces more abroad. The market share of non-Whirlpool imports also increases. After these reach 30% of the market, Whirlpool reshores production to the U.S. and petitions for antidumping duties.
100
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Why would a merger raise the demand for tariffs? 👉 The merged firm now captures the tariff gains that used to go to its domestic rival. BUT it loses the option to cut its own costs by offshoring. So the net effect depends on how strong import competition is. 3/8
100
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Merger control sometimes clear mergers because imports will discipline the merged firm -- but that firm can petition for tariffs to remove that competition. Across jurisdictions, there are mergers that reduce the nr of domestic producers and are followed by tariff petitions. 2/8
For a non-representative sample of horizontal mergers between domestic producers across jurisdictions, the number of domestic producers goes down around the time of the merger and the number of tariff petitions goes up.
100
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
New paper: "Mergers and the Demand for Protectionism" When does approving a merger risk undoing the import competition that justified the approval? Paper: felixmontag.com/files/2026_M... CEPR DP: cepr.org/publications... Short 🧵 1/8
Paper title: Mergers and the Demand for Protectionism

Abstract: Current enforcement practice does not consider how mergers alter the merging parties’ incentives to petition for trade protection. I document mergers between domestic producers across jurisdictions that are followed by tariff petitions. I develop a model to characterize the trade-policy channel of mergers. Theoretically, a domestic merger raises the profitability of tariffs when offshoring is unavailable; once offshoring is possible, the effect becomes ambiguous. I apply this framework to a merger between domestic producers in the U.S. appliance industry. Empirically, I find that when import competition is weak, the merging parties prefer to lower their own costs through offshoring; when import competition is strong, the merger makes it more profitable for them to raise their foreign rivals’ costs through tariffs. The resulting consumer harm is comparable in magnitude to the direct market-power effect. A hypothetical cross-border merger reduces the profitability of tariffs in this market.
1105
Reposted by Felix Montag
AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Forthcoming in the AER: "Mergers, Foreign Competition, and Jobs: Evidence from the U.S. Appliance Industry" by Felix Montag.
aeaweb.org
Mergers, Foreign Competition, and Jobs: Evidence from the U.S. Appliance Industry
(Forthcoming Article) - Policy choices often create trade-offs between workers and consumers. I examine how foreign competition alters the consumer welfare and domestic employment effects of mergers. I construct a model incorporating consumer demand, endogenous product portfolios, and employment decisions. Applying the model to Whirlpool’s acquisition of Maytag in the appliance industry, I compare the observed merger to a counterfactual acquisition by a foreign buyer. Although Whirlpool’s acquisition decreased consumer welfare by $271 million annually, it preserved 797 domestic jobs. These jobs must therefore be valued at more than $345,000 per year for the domestic employment benefits to offset the consumer harm.
052
Reposted by Felix Montag
Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
In his remarks, John Williams cited the research from NY Fed economists that led Kevin Hassett to call for the researchers to be "disciplined." Williams told reporters afterward that the research was "incredibly well done" and "incredibly important."
113330
Reposted by Felix Montag
Anaïs Galdin @anaisgaldin.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
🚨 Predoc Opportunity (Dartmouth) I'm hiring with Felipe Barbieri (@barbierifelipe.bsky.social) a full-time predoc research fellow to work on projects in international trade, IO, and urban/spatial. Info + application: apply.interfolio.com/181447 Please share widely! #econ_ra #econsky #predoc
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
085
Reposted by Felix Montag
Tymofiy Mylovanov @mylovanov.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Thank you for reading this post! Please also consider donating to support Ukrainian students who study during the war if this cause resonates with you. foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to...
0101
Reposted by Felix Montag
Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
The Economist coverage is grim but this is exactly how it should be reported. economist.com/united-state...
61028318
Reposted by Felix Montag
Joel Stiebale @joelstiebale.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
We are hiring #postdocs at the Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE). We have one position in empirical micro, ideally IO or trade (econjobmarket.org/positions/12244) and one position in behavioural/experimental economics (econjobmarket.org/positions/12243).
econjobmarket.org
EJM - Econ Job Market
164
Reposted by Felix Montag
Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 07/10/2025
The CEPR Virtual Industrial Organisation Seminar #VIOS Series continues on 15 October featuring Alejandro Sabal (Yale University) presenting: 'Product Entry in the Global Automobile Industry' Discussant: @fmontag.bsky.social cepr.org/events/event... #EconSky
062
Reposted by Felix Montag
Tymofiy Mylovanov @mylovanov.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
I knew Daria. Students like her are the reason I came back to Ukraine, the reason I am building a university. She embodied the Ukraine I imagine — because Ukraine is its people. People like Daria. 1/
610432
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
Congrats!
010
Reposted by Felix Montag
Ben Waber @bwaber.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Next was a great talk by @fmontag.bsky.social on the effects of M&A and foreign competition on jobs in the US appliance industry at @nber.org www.youtube.com/live/fg08B7_... (5/7)
youtube.com
Industrial Organization, NBER Summer Institute
YouTube video by NBER
121
Reposted by Felix Montag
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Trump just announced new 50% tariffs on household appliances like dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators. Hope no one out there was in the middle of a remodel, or had a stove recently conk out www.reuters.com/world/us/hom...
reuters.com
Home appliances swept up in expansion of Trump steel tariffs
A range of imported household appliances including dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators and more will be subject to President Donald Trump's expanded steel tariffs starting later this month, according to a notice posted on Thursday.
71968413
Reposted by Felix Montag
Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
Oh Jesus, they're looking to kill a bunch of census data collection. Talk about penny-wise pound-foolish behavior that's going to make it harder to actually understand America and do basic policymaking/ research work. They're setting the seed corn on fire for fun.
"Besides the Census itself, the 
@USCensusBureau
 performs 102 additional surveys costing $2.2 billion, many of them obsolete with the results not being used to drive any action nor even looked at. 

The Census Bureau and DOGE are reviewing them one-by-one.  So far, 5 wasteful surveys, totaling 493 pages of questions and $16.5M in costs, have been terminated, with questions like:
 - “In your entire life, have you had at least 12 drinks of any kind of alcohol, not counting small tastes or sips?”
 - “Was this MOSTLY regular wine, wine coolers, or fortified wine?”
 - “How frequently do you use the internet in your home?”
761866450
Reposted by Felix Montag
Alan Manning @alanmanning4.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Why the social care visa had to go. TLDR; in long-run it’s an expensive and ineffective way to hire care workers. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
012
Reposted by Felix Montag
undercoverhist.bsky.social @undercoverhist.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
"We ask that we not be considered, explicitely or by implication, as members of the 'Chicago School' of economics. Indeed, economics at Chicago has included many things quite different from the particular views now associated with the 'Chicago School'" Arrow, Klein, Koopmans and Simon to NYT, 1982
35216
Reposted by Felix Montag
The Review of Economic Studies (REStud) @reveconstudies.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Recently accepted to #REStud, ``Colluding against Environmental Regulation," from Alé-Chilet, Chen, @jingli-econ.bsky.social and Reynaert: www.restud.com/colluding-ag... #EconSky #REStud #pollution #regulation #collusion
0196
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Giulia Brancaccio and I just started looking for a pre-doc starting ideally in September and helping us on projects related to IO and trade: apply.interfolio.com/165860 We plan to review the first set of applications by then end of the month. We‘d love to get their application!
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
000
Reposted by Felix Montag
AEA Information @aeainformation.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Congratulations to Stefanie Stantcheva (@s-stantcheva.bsky.social) of @harvard.edu, winner of the 2025 John Bates Clark Medal! #econsky www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/ho...
aeaweb.org
Stefanie Stantcheva, Clark Medalist 2025
017948
Reposted by Felix Montag
Erzo F.P. Luttmer @erzoluttmer.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
Congratulations to Frank Verboven (@frankverboven.bsky.social) for being appointed as AER coeditor, handling papers in empirical IO and related fields. His term starts on July 1. I’m delighted to have him on our team. @aeajournals.bsky.social #EconSky
15411
Reposted by Felix Montag
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
631791434
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Giulia Brancaccio and I are looking for a pre-doc to work with us on topics related to Industrial Organization and Trade @nyu.edu Ideally for two years starting in September apply.interfolio.com/165860 #EconSky #EconRA
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
0177
Reposted by Felix Montag
John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
A fun thing is that labor productivity is higher in 6 digit NAICS industries where you find "bullshit jobs" (e.g. in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services) than in manufacturing
061
Reposted by Felix Montag
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
This is driving me crazy too. Not long ago 10% universal tariffs were considered the worst-case scenario, something even Trump wasn’t crazy enough to impose. Now have those PLUS 125% tariffs on China. Together, these raise raise inflation by about as much as original “Liberation Day” tariffs did!
12068892064
Reposted by Felix Montag
Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Trump hasn't "paused tariffs": in addition to the insane rate on Chinese imports, we have a 10% tariff on everything. www.nbcnews.com/business/mar...
nbcnews.com
Stocks open lower as tariffs reality sets in
Even with Trump's 90-day pause on country-by-country duties, the effective average import tax is rising to 24%.
052
Reposted by Felix Montag
Rajiv Sethi @rajivsethi.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
New post on the (possible) future of American higher education open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...
open.substack.com
The University in Exile
I feel like we are witnessing a charade.
262
Reposted by Felix Montag
Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 10/04/2025
Why China has escalation dominance in this trade war. US gets vital goods from China that cannot be replaced anytime soon. Reducing such dependence may be reason for action, but fighting the current trade war before doing so is a recipe for disaster. by @adamposen.bsky.social
foreignaffairs.com
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-China tariff fight.
24113
Reposted by Felix Montag
Stefanie Stantcheva @s-stantcheva.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Regarding trade -- our research shows that only 25% of Americans *disagree with the idea that international trade is zero-sum* — that if one country gains, another must lose. Most people either believe it is zero-sum or aren’t sure. socialeconomicslab.org/research/wor...
socialeconomicslab.org
Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of U.S. Political Differences - Social Economics Lab
We investigate the origins and implications of zero-sum thinking -- the belief that gains for one individual or group tend to come at the cost of others. Using a new survey of a representative sample ...
0207
Reposted by Felix Montag
Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Awkward. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
4167
Reposted by Felix Montag
derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
It's easy to say "well then just stop cheap imports." But I don't think Americans are returning back to those prices. In early 1960s, US households spent 12% of their income on apparel (or $4,157 in today's dollars). In 2016, it was 4% (or $1,803). And that's with larger wardrobes!
A 1960s photo of a woman's wardrobe. A handful of dresses hang on a rail. A stylized graphic showing a pile of clothes. There are words like "massive haul," "haul," and "$1k later," referencing TikTok haul videos, where people show off their shopping sprees.
161863163
Reposted by Felix Montag
Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
I’m losing my mind here. USTR made a list of “Unfair trade practices” they’re retaliating against, complaint number 5 is that the EU cares too much about stopping illegal deforestation, complaint number 7 is that the South Americans are doing too much illegal deforestation
“5/10: The EU's Deforestation-free Supply Chain Regulation (EUDR) aims to prohibit imports of seven products—including cattle, cocoa, rubber, and wood—unless exporters meet various burdensome compliance requirements, including due diligence and geolocation data.

It is estimated the EUDR will potentially impact $8.6 billion worth of annual U.S. agricultural and industrial exports.”

7/10: Illegal logging and illegal mining in South America, particularly in Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador, fuel environmental degradation and create unfair competition that harms U.S. businesses committed to responsible sourcing and compliance with environmental laws.

These illicit activities, which usually involve transnational criminal organizations, distort global commodity markets by driving down prices and allowing bad actors to undercut legitimate American exporters.
13543601122
Reposted by Felix Montag
Barton Lee @bartonelee2.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Come join me in Zurich! We’re hiring a Professor of Health Economics (deadline April 30). DM me if you have any questions about our department, ETH 🏫, or Switzerland🇨🇭 ethz.ch/en/the-eth-z...
ethz.ch
Professor of Health Economics
11715
Reposted by Felix Montag
John Mullahy @johnmullahy.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1930 @qjeharvard.bsky.social www.jstor.org/stable/1882526
05019
Reposted by Felix Montag
Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 03/04/2025
Meanwhile, back in Metropolis... Trump administration invokes Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM) of USMCA for first time. US is worried about denial of worker rights - freedom of association / collective bargaining - in a Mexican auto parts plant. Source: ustr.gov/about/policy...
041
Reposted by Felix Montag
More Perfect Union @moreperfectunion.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
BREAKING: Senators Chuck Grassley (R) and Maria Cantwell (D) introduce legislation to require all new tariffs to receive Congressional approval.
2513692672
Reposted by Felix Montag
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Stellantis laying off 900 US workers at its US auto plants, thanks to tariffs www.reuters.com/business/aut...
reuters.com
Stellantis says it will temporarily lay off 900 US workers following tariff announcement
Stellantis NV, maker of Ram trucks and Jeeps, said on Thursday it was temporarily laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities after President Donald Trump's tariffs were announced, and temporarily pausing production at an assembly plant in Mexico and in Canada.
39348141
Reposted by Felix Montag
Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) @tradediversion.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
USTR: "The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25. The recent experience with U.S. tariffs on China has demonstrated that tariff passthrough to retail prices was low (Cavallo et al, 2021)." Cavallo et al: φ is 0.945. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
25619
Felix Montag @fmontag.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
So are we gonna get import subsidies for services?
020
Reposted by Felix Montag
Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
That’s always been my opinion on the tariffs, and why I didn’t necessarily think they would tank the economy as some predicted. That said, the scale and monumental idiocy of what was announced yesterday was on a different level...
14114
Reposted by Felix Montag
Ivan Werning @ivanwerning.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
Analyzing theoretical formula used to determine tariffs… What’s wrong with it? Used in isolation on a single small trading partner the formula makes some sense. But if applied widely to many non trivial ones it does not. ustr.gov/issue-areas/...
3308
Reposted by Felix Montag
Khoa @khoavuumn.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
"We calibrated these parameters to match with real data."
2543