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Adam Posen

@adamposen.bsky.social
15K followers 290 following 287 posts

President, PIIE. Globalist. Former central banker. Political economy with a policy purpose. Writes on macroeconomic policy, G7/China relations, globalization, and economies of US, UK, Germany, Japan, and PRC.

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Reposted by Adam Posen
Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
China's economic security growth model and implications for the US-China security dilemma Important new analysis of China's economic and foreign policy integrated model Sophisticated political economy @piie.com by the amazing Prof @yelingtan.bsky.social Yeling Tan www.piie.com/publications...
piie.com
China's economic security growth model and implications for the US-China security dilemma
Traditional conceptions of export- or domestic investment–led growth no longer appropriately capture the dynamics shaping the Chinese economy. Rather, China has adopted a model in which national secur...
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 21/09/2026
NEW in @foreignaffairs.com China Still Has What America Needs: The Trump-Xi Summit Gives Washington a Chance to Buy Time by @adamposen.bsky.social Gift Link: www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 21/09/2026
Last year’s Trump-Xi summit “taught a useful lesson: no amount of bilateral trade-related threats or exclusion from the U.S. economy would give the United States an easy win over China,” writes @adamposen.bsky.social. “Washington needs time to reduce its dependence on Beijing.”
foreignaffairs.com
China Still Has What America Needs
The Trump-Xi summit gives Washington a chance to buy time.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 23/09/2026
This piece by my brilliant @piie.com colleage @adamposen.bsky.social may be the first time you have seen the United States described accurately as what its ruling regime has quickly made it: a "lesser power".
foreignaffairs.com
China Still Has What America Needs
The Trump-Xi summit gives Washington a chance to buy time.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Josh Busby @busbyj2.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This piece from @adamposen.bsky.social on how the US should try to use the Trump-Xi meeting to buy itself some time on derisking is smart. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-...
foreignaffairs.com
China Still Has What America Needs
The Trump-Xi summit gives Washington a chance to buy time.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Anna Stansbury @annastansbury.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Looking forward to discussing @lugaricano.bsky.social fantastic book Messy Jobs tomorrow @piie.com with @adamposen.bsky.social I think it’s one of the best frameworks we have to think about how AI is going to affect work. (And it’s superbly written, too). Livestream: www.piie.com/events/2026/...
piie.com
Book discussion: Messy Jobs: The Work that AI Cannot Reach
As artificial intelligence (AI) transforms the workplace, which jobs will remain valuable—and what makes them resistant to automation? Economist Luis Garicano, coauthor of Messy Jobs: The Work that AI...
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Live webcast 1p ET with Luis Garicano and Anna Stansbury Book discussion: Messy Jobs: The Work that AI Cannot Reach @piie.com www.piie.com/events/2026/...
piie.com
Book discussion: Messy Jobs: The Work that AI Cannot Reach
As artificial intelligence (AI) transforms the workplace, which jobs will remain valuable—and what makes them resistant to automation? Economist Luis Garicano, coauthor of Messy Jobs: The Work that AI...
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Live at 9a ET streaming event! Exciting and new! The Trump-Xi summit and possible future of US-China economic relations Me with Chad Bown, Yeling Tan, Marcus Noland www.piie.com/events/2026/...
piie.com
The Trump-Xi summit and possible future of US-China economic relations
As Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare for their September 24 summit, what can new economic analyses tell us about the direction of US-China economic relations, as well as the likely impact...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 11/08/2026
“The irony of the guy working for Soros and [Stanley] Druckenmiller who broke the Bank of England back in ’92 pretending that you can do FX intervention alone, and lastingly defend a currency, is just amazing.” - @adamposen.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/1be8...
ft.com
Scott Bessent’s yen intervention signals new era of US ‘currency activism’
Bid to support Japan’s currency shows US is ready to scupper trades that push against its interests
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Quilting the Resistance @susiecambria.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Interesting: Adam Posen Thinks Things Could Get 'Messy' for the Fed | Odd Lots www.youtube.com/watch?v=8up4... Particularly interesting is the discussion about "messy jobs" at 42:56. Think the "true" impact of AI, overestimation of the tech, etc. @kansascityfed.bsky.social @adamposen.bsky.social
youtube.com
Adam Posen Thinks Things Could Get 'Messy' for the Fed | Odd Lots
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
New podcast! Glad to be on Odd Lots again from Jackson Hole. Thanks Joe and Tracy! We spoke about the Fed and its new Chair, US inflation, Treasuries and the US Treasury, AI impact on the macroeconomy, AI impact on economists, and what makes for dissent in central banks youtube.com/playlist?lis...
youtube.com
Odd Lots (Audio)
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Talking with Scott Tong (5 minutes) on what the G20 and Bessent have to do with higher interrest rates, and what it means for US households @npr.org @hereandnow.bsky.social www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2...
wbur.org
G20 finance meeting continues amid concerns about global economy
Finance officials are meeting again on Tuesday in Asheville, North Carolina, amid some major concerns about the economic impact of the Iran war.
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
China's economic security growth model and implications for the US-China security dilemma Important new analysis of China's economic and foreign policy integrated model Sophisticated political economy @piie.com by the amazing Prof @yelingtan.bsky.social Yeling Tan www.piie.com/publications...
piie.com
China's economic security growth model and implications for the US-China security dilemma
Traditional conceptions of export- or domestic investment–led growth no longer appropriately capture the dynamics shaping the Chinese economy. Rather, China has adopted a model in which national secur...
194
Reposted by Adam Posen
Boidle @boidle.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Corruption & insular thinking aren't just wrecking US domestic economy, they're undermining our ability to innovate, have secure, mutually profitable alliances & protect ourselves from outside threats. Rejoining the world economy after Trump will be difficult; it's leaving us behind.
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
New important analysis of why the "optimal tariff" argument fails in practice for the US right now By @kclausing.bsky.social and Obstfeld from @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
“Optimal tariffs” are far from optimal: Part 1
Advocates of President Donald Trump's tariff policies often bash economists for ignoring real-world complexities. Yet administration officials happily invoke the abstract theoretical concept of the "o...
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Reposted by Adam Posen
National Foundation for American Policy @nfapresearch.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
DOL’s proposed rule to price H-1B and employment green card holders out of the US labor market is likely illegal. DOL invents facts and uses a questionable methodology to justify raising prevailing wages by up to 33%. @mclem.org @adamposen.bsky.social www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...
forbes.com
Immigration Report Finds DOL Rule Increasing H-1B Wages Likely Illegal
A new report finds the Trump administration’s proposed rule to require higher prevailing wages for H-1B visa holders is likely unlawful.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 03/07/2026
@adamposen.bsky.social reflects on how what has made the American economy an ongoing success at home & abroad has always been its dynamism, & what that means for the US course forward as it approaches its 250th anniversary of independence.
piie.com
America's future in the post-American world economy
American global economic dominance has been clear for at least the last 110 years of its 250-year history, and it was widely foretold for half a century before that. It was never just about scale, eve...
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
America's future in the post-American world economy How no kings ties together politics and economic dynamism for our 250th birthday. @piie.com (German language original published in @faznet.bsky.social ) www.piie.com/commentary/o...
piie.com
America's future in the post-American world economy
American global economic dominance has been clear for at least the last 110 years of its 250-year history, and it was widely foretold for half a century before that. It was never just about scale, eve...
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Grand Continent @grandcontinent.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
De protecteur à gangster, d'assureur du monde à racketteur. Selon @adamposen.bsky.social, les États-Unis sont tombés dans le piège des tarifs. Un entretien à lire absolument. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/04/2...
legrandcontinent.eu
Trump a transformé les États-Unis d'assureur du monde en racketteur
Selon le président du Peterson Institute, la Maison-Blanche ne s’est pas engouffrée dans le piège de Thucydide, mais dans celui de Corleone.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Femi @femi-oluwole.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Thanks again to @adamposen.bsky.social for the clearest warning about what Brexit would do to the UK. If only more people had heard it...
youtu.be
The Best EVER explanation of Brexit
YouTube video by Femi - F Politics!
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Thanks @james-mudge.bsky.social for digging that up, I don't know how. My closest brush with fame, proximity to a young Conan O'Brien before he was CONAN O"BRIEN
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Byline Times @bylinetimes.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
🧵 A postcard from the country that already crashed the car, sent with love and a small amount of nausea, to the cousins who are about to crash a bigger one. — @therickwilson.bsky.social's warning from America 🇺🇸➡️🇬🇧 bylinetimes.com/2026/05/08/r... 1/12
bylinetimes.com
Rick Wilson's Warning From America: Nigel Farage Will Be Your Donald Trump, Unless You Act Now
The former Republican strategist and Lincoln Project founder has some hard lessons for Conservatives and Labour alike
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
If you missed it, read this by @cullenhendrix.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com on AI as potentially generating the political economy of petrostates in the G7 economies. Provocative thinking from @piie.com
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
What Trump's visit to China really indicates about US-China economic relations and global tensions Me on @marketplace.org with @kairyssdal.bsky.social @piie.com www.marketplace.org/story/2026/0...
marketplace.org
What to expect from Trump's visit to China
Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, talks about what to expect from President Trump’s meetings with President Xi Jinping of China this week.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
National Foundation for American Policy @nfapresearch.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Analysts say the problems identified in the Borjas paper show that the $100,000 H-1B fee is flawed and are a tax on talent. @mclem.org says a correct analysis would imply the optimal tax on foreign-born talent is zero. @adamposen.bsky.social @erikbryn.bsky.social www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...
forbes.com
Trump Immigration Restrictions Spur New Look At H-1B Salaries
The Trump administration’s plans to make H-1B visa holders more costly to hire have spurred new interest in H-1B salaries.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Liz Webster 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇬🇧🇪🇺 @lizwebster.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
But reality’s a bitch, especially with Trump. Brexit Britain is most exposed to needing imports which are soaring thanks to Trump’s war & anaemic growth stalls. Now the toxic reality of stagflation - which @adamposen.bsky.social always predicted was inevitable brexit consequence - looks certain.
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar Hugely important NEW essay by Maurice Obstfeld at @piie.com ahead of this week's G7/G20 global imbalances focused conversations. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar
The Trump administration and China's leaders generally differ on economic policy, but on one proposition some prominent members of their economic teams seem to agree: The dollar's status as the world'...
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
This is the big one, MUST READ Thorough objective new analysis of the impact of Trump's trade war on China-US trade including on key industries @PIIE @ChadBown www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
China no longer buys US exports: Drawing the right lessons for the next Trump-Xi deal
China essentially stopped buying US exports in April 2025. President Donald Trump had started his second term by launching a new trade war that he headlined with steep new tariffs on China. When China...
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Reposted by Adam Posen
acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
The broader US economy hasn’t had a big pullback in economic activity. But a shrinking workforce and a falling #breakeven #employment growth rate mean the labour market is tighter than what headline numbers suggest. @adamposen.bsky.social has argued this would lead to higher #services #inflation.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 26/01/2026
“Anybody who says we do not have a boom in a large part of the economy is wrong,” says @adamposen.bsky.social. “Right now the US has on balance, much going for it despite many, many self-inflicted wounds.” But “over time shooting oneself in the limbs will slow you down even if you miss your chest.”
ft.com
Is the US economy as hot as Donald Trump thinks?
Risks from inflation and a precarious AI boom hover over stellar growth figures
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Adam Posen (@adamposen.bsky.social) has it correct here. There are very few positive signs for the dollar right now, and a long list of negative signs that seems to be growing by the day.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
The Washington Sun Perspectives @washsunperspect.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Which issue, trend or crisis will dominate global economic news in the year ahead? @adamposen.bsky.social says it’s the descending dollar. www.notus.org/perspectives/which-is…
notus.org
Which issue, trend or crisis will dominate global economic news in the year ahead?
Anne-Marie Slaughter, Jason Furman, Kamissa Camara, M. Ayhan Kose, Laura Alfers, Adam S. Posen, Kari Heerman, Natalie Baker, Ian Bremmer
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Billy-in-Philly @billy-in-philly.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Great work by @adamposen.bsky.social apple.news/A0OBakKTJS4m...
apple.news
The Economic Toll of Trump’s Policies Will Soon Be Visible — Bloomberg Businessweek
Mainstream economists have underestimated the cost of all the confusion the administration has unleashed, particularly on trade and immigration.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 06/02/2026
AGENDA UPDATE: At 12:30 PM ET, @adamposen.bsky.social will present new inflation forecasts from his recent collaborative work with Peter Orszag: "The Risk of Higher US Inflation in 2026." Stream it live below.
piie.com
The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Conference on distilling lessons from the COVID era
During the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation in the United States and many other countries surged to its highest level in more than 40 years, inflicting enormous pain on households and bu...
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
The far right authoritarian party’s ongoing project of Making Nineteenth Century America Great Again - complete with the spoils system, Jim Crow, unvaccinated populations dying, & a federal government that can’t regulate anything - continues apace.
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
UPDATE: At 12:30 PM ET, I will discuss with Karen Dynan inflation forecasts from my recent work with Peter Orszag: "The Risk of Higher US Inflation in 2026." Stream it live: The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Conference on distilling lessons from the COVID era www.piie.com/events/2026/...
piie.com
The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Conference on distilling lessons from the COVID era
During the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation in the United States and many other countries surged to its highest level in more than 40 years, inflicting enormous pain on households and bu...
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
LIVE webstream watch now: The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Conference on distilling lessons from the COVID era @PIIE.com www.piie.com/events/2026/...
piie.com
The worst inflation outbreak in 40 years: Conference on distilling lessons from the COVID era
During the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation in the United States and many other countries surged to its highest level in more than 40 years, inflicting enormous pain on households and bu...
051
Reposted by Adam Posen
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
The economic toll of Trump’s policies will soon be visible writes @adamposen.bsky.social @piie.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
The Economic Toll of Trump’s Policies Will Soon Be Visible
Mainstream economists have underestimated the cost of all the confusion the administration has unleashed, particularly on trade and immigration.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
lindabrooke6.bsky.social @lindabrooke6.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
www.npr.org/transcripts/...
npr.org
What Trump's fight with Powell could mean for the Fed's future
President Trump has been trying to bully the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates. It's a gambit that could lead to more inflation.
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Some of us are worried, but the data disruptions will mask some pressures through Spring. That is problematic. The care economy diverged in terms of inflation in ways that do not square. In-home elder care soared over summer, but childcare showed historic weakness after soaring pre-shutdown.
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Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 20/01/2026
@adamposen.bsky.social & Lazard CEO Peter Orszag write that inflation could exceed 4% by the end of 2026.
piie.com
The risk of higher US inflation in 2026
The consensus view among forecasters is that inflation will continue its gradual descent toward the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target through 2026. Similarly, market pricing suggests investors believ...
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Reposted by Adam Posen
John West @jwestjourno.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Hence the 75 mega mergers of more than $10bn we saw in 2025. What matters now is how policymakers and corporates manage ongoing risk. Europe will act against redirected Chinese imports; I think - and @adamposen.bsky.social agrees - delayed tariff impacts will keep US inflation sticky.
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The Washington Sun Perspectives @washsunperspect.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Which issue, trend or crisis will dominate global economic news in the year ahead? @slaughteram.bsky.social, @jasonfurman.bsky.social, Kamissa Camara, M. Ayhan Kose, Laura Alfers, @adamposen.bsky.social, Kari Heerman, Natalie Baker and @ianbremmer.com weigh in. www.notus.org/perspectives...
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 23/01/2026
Which issue, trend or crisis will dominate global economic news in the year ahead? @adamposen.bsky.social says a descending dollar in 2026. @jasonfurman.bsky.social says the trade imbalance between China & the West could reshape geopolitics. Read more in @notusperspectives.bsky.social:
notus.org
Which issue, trend or crisis will dominate global economic news in the year ahead?
Anne-Marie Slaughter, Jason Furman, Kamissa Camara, M. Ayhan Kose, Laura Alfers, Adam S. Posen, Kari Heerman, Natalie Baker, Ian Bremmer
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
www.notus.org/perspectives...
notus.org
Which issue, trend or crisis will dominate global economic news in the year ahead?
Anne-Marie Slaughter, Jason Furman, Kamissa Camara, M. Ayhan Kose, Laura Alfers, Adam S. Posen, Kari Heerman, Natalie Baker, Ian Bremmer
051
Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
I spoke with @jsummers.bsky.social for All Things Considered about what Fed independence means in practice, and why the attack on Chair Powell is such a big deal for the US economy. This will air at tonight @npr.org at 5:05 ET and also will be on their podcast today.
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
This is what uncertainty looks like. Why it takes a while for the inflation impact to come thru from tariffs and deportations. Also it explains why investment outside of AI has been so weak in the US, despite many things which normally would have led to a boom. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
The Economic Toll of Trump’s Policies Will Soon Be Visible
Mainstream economists have underestimated the cost of all the confusion the administration has unleashed, particularly on trade and immigration.
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Central bank independence - the latest evidence based thinking. Non-partisan take: Threatening the central bank chair leads to higher inflation with no gain in growth (recent studies and experience bears this out). www.piie.com/publications...
piie.com
Central bank independence in practice
The Peterson Institute for International Economics held a high-level conference in October 2025 in Washington, DC, to analyze the serious issues concerning central bank independence in practice. The g...
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Reposted by Adam Posen
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 05/01/2026
“You can have volcanoes in the economy that you haven’t seen yet,” @adamposen.bsky.social says, referencing Emily Dickinson. Stablecoins are one: a latent threat that could erupt & trigger a financial meltdown. The lava could cause destruction reminiscent of what happened in 2008.
piie.com
Economic heavyweights sound alarm over new currency – top economist fears panic
His analysis is deeply unsettling. The United States is in the middle of a financial experiment. If it goes wrong, it could end in a financial crisis 2.0.
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Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
This major US financial stability risk has not been getting sufficient attention. So, I am using this feature I did with the Danish "Borsen" - in English - to try to raise this concern. If you find the argument clear and therefore worrying, please circulate, thanks. www.piie.com/commentary/o...
piie.com
Economic heavyweights sound alarm over new currency – top economist fears panic
His analysis is deeply unsettling. The United States is in the middle of a financial experiment. If it goes wrong, it could end in a financial crisis 2.0.
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