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John Voorheis

@johnvoorheis.bsky.social
7.1K followers 924 following 840 posts

Bad takes are my fault

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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In this country we only believe in two genders, treated and control
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Swing state vibe check: the Republican ads during the college football and jeopardy slots (the only times I watch live TV) have largely dropped the transphobia in the last two weeks
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Saw a 5 handle for non-discounted regular gas in SE Michigan
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
What if another name for "jagged frontier" is "not a general purpose technology"?
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Every society that doesn't let its old folks die in ditches is a ponzi scheme that redistributes from workers to those no longer able to work
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 23/08/2026
but like, it's not my fault that you have chosen to embrace one of the most dogshit ideas the human mind has ever conjured into being!
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
A meta problem with academic journals (e.g. referees and editors) -- obsession with novelty means that unique, first of a kind papers are prized, and drive narratives/policy/future science, but also, because they are unique, may be wrong in a way that a bunch of similar papers are unlikely to be
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
A key thing that once you realize it kind of radicalize you re: taxation of unrealized gains is that we already have a tax system that features changes in tax based on unrealized changes in asset values --- deductions for depreciation.
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
She sounds like the kid from the Goldbergs before he hit puberty, which is in a way technically a Michigan accent (Sean Giambrone was actually born in Michigan) -- this was always a weird part of a show theoretically set in the Philly suburbs
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
People who object to the current state of academic research in any particular discipline have the option of applying to grad school, getting a PhD, writing the papers you want to see in the world, submitting them to journals, revising them to address referee comments and then getting them published.
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Just saw a commercial break consisting of the exact same two El-Sayed and Stevens ads back to back, twice in a row, truly crazymaking
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Complementaries between AI and human labor (derogatory)
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Metin Seven, Moon Child's dad 🌝 @seven.eurosky.social · 19/07/2026
Photo of a van with a text printed on its back: "We fix what ChatGPT said you should try!"
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
With additional PM2.5 data through 1000Z today, I think we can safely say that this is the most impactful wildfire smoke event in recent history -- around 41.3 million people have been exposed to at least one hour of Hazardous PM2.5 & the number of person-hours spent in Hazardous range is now 368.9m
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
This doesn't cite my old (now gone) twitter threads on this but I'm taking a victory lap anyway www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026...
minneapolisfed.org
New homeownership measure puts people first | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
An alternative way of calculating the homeownership rate tells us how many individuals own their homes—something the most commonly used metric fails to track
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
welp, the plume made it to New York after all
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Rough live calculations of impact of the severe #wildfire smoke event as of 13:00 UTC (9AM ET): about 24.7 million people have experienced at least one hour of hazardous PM2.5 (above 225 ug/m3) 201.5 million person hours have been spent in the Hazardous range (US numbers only)
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Morning situation: extra not great. Though, on a pop-weighted basis, the NWS forecast underestimating smoke to the west (Minneapolis) and on overestimating smoke to the east (NYC/Philly) means this is a little lower impact than the worst case
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Yea its not great if I'm being personally honest (I'm actually just on the other side of the plume, but that's not going to last).
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Quick calculation using the Gridded EIF and the 0600Z NWS PM2.5 forecast: Around 71 million people are forecasted to be exposed to at least one hour of PM2.5 concentrations in the "Hazardous" category (AQI above 300, concentrations above 225 ug/m3)
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
There's a Purpleair monitor in northern MI that's reading an AQI of 555 *after* the LRAPA correction, which is fun.
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
The NWS Air Quality Guidance forecast product is predicting a very severe wildfire smoke event over the next few days -- if this verifies, could be the worst air quality event since the Canadian wildfire smoke events of 2023/2025
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
That Puerto Rico song is the first piece of actually surprising AI created art right?
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AERE @aereorg.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
📢 Ahead-of-print 📢 in #REEP "The Census Environmental Impacts Frame" by John Voorheis, Jonathan Colmer , Kendall Houghton, Eva Lyubich, Mary Munro, Cameron Scalera, and Jennifer Withrow. 📎 Read it here: buff.ly/KCvgDEm 📈📉 #Econsky
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
FWIW, this looks roughly correct, at least for DC: fireworks-related PM2.5 was substantially lower last night vs. 2025
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
We're a couple hours from peak neighborhood fireworks time, but given the storms, this may be the least polluted July 4th since at least 2019.
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Looks like the forecast for this afternoon is for wet bulb globe temperatures around 91 degrees F in Ann Arbor; there are not a ton of benefits to working out of an office in a windowless basement in an old concrete building, but avoiding all that is maybe one.
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Life in a swing state in a competitive primary year: Jeopardy as breaks entirely composed of Senate/governor attack ads
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Since we're discoursing about housing, a semi-provocative take: there is no reason to believe that the well-being of current neighborhood residents should be given any particular weight in the siting and characteristics of new construction.
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
You've confessed to your last dashboard
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
One lesson is "you can make publicly acknowledged funding and partnerships nefarious if you pretend it was a secret" but also "don't conduct yourself in such a way that a hatchet job can get written about you two decades later"
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
My most boomer belief is that essentially all service dogs are fake, and putting them in group 6 with basic economy when boarding planes will accurately identify any residual non-fake cases
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Adam Gurri @adamgurri.liberalcurrents.com · 21/06/2026
EMBRACE WAR
General Sherman
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
I have become somewhat radicalized on this: if we require realization for capital gains or losses to be considered income, we absolutely need to do the same for depreciation being considered a business expense
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Flingjore @flingjore.com · 07/06/2026
Larger US wildfires are reversing a decade of progress on air quality, a new study finds. Smoke-driven ground-level ozone has increased by 4% since 2015, offsetting strict federal regulations on power plants and vehicles. This is also linked to 318 additional deaths annually.
apnews.com
Wildfires are making the US smoggy again, reversing progress on cleaner air, study finds
A new study finds that smoke from larger wildfires is reversing more than a decade of American improvements in smog.
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
ECWMF's Nino Plumes Viewer now includes (or at least I'm just now noticing it) a dashed line for actual monthly Nino-3.4 anomalies for historical forecasts (charts.ecmwf.int/products/sea...). If you go back to recent forecasts, the actual anomalies were at the upper end of the model forecast spread.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 31/05/2026
The latest CFSv2 model results for El Nino (ONI) anomalies later this year are kinda nuts, with a peak at nearly 3.9C in November. NOAA needs to once again raise the y-axis range; here is what it should look like without all the runs above 4C cut off:
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
People like aid to the poor and social security but hate welfare spending
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NBER @nber.org · 24/05/2026
Analyzing intergenerational mobility of wealth and income across US counties, highlighting spatial differences due to factors such as house prices and the Great Recession shock, from Ariel J. Binder, Max Risch, and John L. Voorheis www.nber.org/papers/w35219
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
They're going to end up reconstructing managers in the aggregate is the thing--the idea is your enterprise tools have all the visibility you used to have via human managers, which requires everyone to diligently label everything so the LLMs can understand it, which is going to require...Management
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Probably missed the craft beer elitism discourse this time around, but I'll note that if you consume craft beer in a non-elite context (like the brewery down the street from me in the suburbs of Detroit), you'll mostly find yourself surrounded by like, dads who just want to watch the tigers game.
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Somewhat annoyingly, the NBER social media people slightly mis-state our key finding on migration. We find that while migration to Census blocks *near* floodplains has increased, there's been essentially no net migration to *properties inside floodplains*!
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
We need high quality microdata to be able to do evidence based policy, but this is always going to lag real time. The next best thing is for a robust, well-resourced statistical system to regularly develop and release aggregates which reproduce the insights available in the microdata for public use.
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
I have two new papers up in this week's NBER working papers (www.nber.org/papers/w35204 and www.nber.org/papers/w35219). Here's a couple of things I learned in pulling these papers together.
nber.org
Flood Risk, Insurance, and Housing in the United States
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
These guys could have fully avoided the backlash they face by just writing "if you use our services as a headcount reduction machine you need to pay a higher tier for usage which sets the per token cost such that you won't make any money" and then they could with a straight face say that AI is good.
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
I guess there's a relitigation of the great Piketty wars of the 2010s, which is fun. I'll add one thing that no one cares about: the entire DINA project was a dead end because we don't actually know how to measure business income, capital income or the stock of wealth that produces these flows.
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John Voorheis @johnvoorheis.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
The last few days have had record high daily average surface temperature anomalies (at least since the 1940s)
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