In June 2026, Kalshi launched markets in perpetual futures or perps.

Like countless other folks I’ve been trying to grapple with the implications of what happened at Open AI over the past couple of months—agents broke out of solitary confinement, established communicat...

Are markets better than pollsters? Why did the whiff on the pope so bad?

Back in late June I signed a contract with Princeton University Press for a trade book, Engines of Prophecy: The Power and Perils of Prediction Markets. I think it will be broadly accessible and fun t...

The following remarks were prepared for delivery to the board of the Teagle Foundation a couple of weeks ago.

Back in February of this year I had the opportunity to speak with Matt Jackson for the Human Centered podcast. This is the official podcast of the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences ...

Schedule — Gelman 60-ish Workshop.

Without identity checks, prediction market regulation will be toothless

The case against Gannon Ken Van Dyke marks the first U.S. prosecution for insider trading in prediction markets.

At around 6:50am ET on March 24, there was an unusually large spike in trading volume in oil and stock futures markets.

YouTube video by University of Michigan

New post: Trading on Violence

Insider trading on prediction markets is turning into a dog-bites-man type of story.

Insider trading on prediction markets is turning into a dog-bites-man type of story.

YouTube video by PBS NewsHour

There’s so much information now available at our fingertips, and we face increasingly frequent and challenging decisions regarding the allocation of time and attention.

YouTube video by PBS NewsHour

The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two cents in early January:

The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two cents in early January:

This list includes a selection of the latest research on cryptocurrency posted to SSRN in 2025. On the Impossibility of Transparent and Decentralized DeFi Trading by Hanna Halaburda (New York Unive…

YouTube video by Rajiv Sethi

In my last post I discussed the case of a Polymarket trader who placed a series of well-timed bets on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and made a profit of over $400,000 (on a $32,000 investment) in just ...

YouTube video by Michael Smerconish

YouTube video by Michael Smerconish

In the days before the shock nighttime raid when U.S. forces captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, one user on the “prediction market” Polymarket quietly set the wheels in motion to vastly...

Major economic, political, and military decisions move asset prices, and those with foreknowledge of such things can make significant trading profits.

I’m hoping that this post will have something useful to say about strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, and asset price bubbles.

I’ve mentioned in a couple of earlier posts that I spent ten formative years of my life—including all of my teenage years—in England.

Consider the following set of trades executed in quick succession on Polymarket at around 6pm on November 1, just a couple of days before polls opened on election day:

Wash trading refers to the practice of buying and selling securities without taking a net position, for the purpose of artificially inflating recorded volume. I

The volume of activity on Polymarket, one of the most popular prediction markets, has been significantly inflated by so-called wash trading in which users rapidly buy and sell the same contracts, acco...

Wash trading refers to the practice of buying and selling securities without taking a net position, for the purpose of artificially inflating recorded volume. I