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Nick Timiraos

@nicktimiraos.bsky.social
72K followers 94 following 1.2K posts

Chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal

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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Kevin Warsh wants investors to watch the economy, not the Fed. But after two of his deputies stepped in, the probability of an October rate hike fell to around 25% from 70% ahead of new data releases. Weaning the markets off Fed signals is harder than it sounds www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Why Weaning Markets Off Fed Speak Is Harder Than It Sounds
Kevin Warsh wants investors to focus on the economy and not the Fed. Last week, his top lieutenants stepped in to reset bets on an October rate increase.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
In the early days of Trump’s second term, his economic advisers laid out a simple theory: Show the bond market that Washington was serious about closing its gaping deficits and long-term interest rates would fall on their own. Trump could leave the Fed alone. It hasn’t worked out that way.
wsj.com
The Moves That Backfired on Trump and Drove Interest Rates and Inflation Higher
The president’s own agenda has helped undermine promises to fix the economy and get the deficit under control.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
After the CPI report, many of the sell-side and the Fed watcher community flipped their house "call" on the September meeting. Of these 22, twenty now expect the Fed to hike on Wednesday, and most think there's another hike this year after that
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
August core CPI estimates from those who have shared them: The median is 0.22%. All 17 estimates (ranging from 0.16% to 0.24%) round to 0.2%.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Warsh's Jackson Hole speech convinced investors a rate hike was more likely but didn't tell them what would trigger one. Markets filled the gap and are now pricing a hike Warsh never promised. Which leaves Friday's inflation report viewed as the thing that will authorize or block a rate hike
wsj.com
A Tiny Shift in the Inflation Rate Could Decide the Fed’s Next Move
Fed officials, increasingly divided over where rates should go, will be watching Friday’s consumer inflation report closely.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Waller extends Warsh's "play the ball, not the Fed" metaphor and repurposes it to defend his particular style of communications. He likened a central bank’s reaction function to a home plate umpire's strike zone, saying batters and pitchers don't need it to be perfect, only roughly known and stable:
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Fed gov Chris Waller's posture hasn't fundamentally changed since July, but the tilt has, from worried and leaning toward tightening back then to tentatively encouraged and leaning toward holding today. His thinking on a Sept rate hike comes down to the Aug inflation readings.
wsj.com
Fed’s Waller Says He’d Back Holding Rates if August Inflation Data Cooperate
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he would support holding rates steady at the central bank's meeting in two weeks if August inflation data continue the recent progress seen in June and Ju...
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
A war that won’t end is sending up bond yields and complicating matters for the Fed, which could face a close call on a rate hike at its upcoming meeting www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
A War That Won’t End Is Complicating the Fed’s Next Move
A Fed governor says the central bank should act if inflation doesn’t improve soon. The Treasury secretary says high energy prices are a shock the Fed should look past.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally. "Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination." www.wsj.com/opinion/let-...
wsj.com
Opinion | Let the Bond Market Speak
Rising interest rates are a signal of trouble ahead. Artificially suppressing it heightens the danger.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Kevin Warsh has been critical of how the Fed publishes forecasts and feels pressure to defend them. As a Fed governor from 2007-11, he submitted one every quarter. They came out on the Fed's usual delay, after he left the Fed, and they haven't gotten much attention since.
wsj.com
Warsh’s Old Forecasts Show How He Formed His Views on Inflation
As a Fed governor 15 years ago, Warsh was more worried about inflation than nearly all of his colleagues, and for years it didn’t materialize.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh envisions a central bank whose interest-rate decisions don’t hinge on the latest monthly data. That vision may have to wait. Two inflation reports over the next month are set to shape whether his colleagues push to raise rates in September or extend their pause.
wsj.com
Inflation Reports Could Test Warsh’s Tough Talk
The Fed chairman has promised to bring inflation down. Upcoming data could determine whether he has to raise rates soon to do it.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Most inflation forecasters see the core CPI rounding down to 0.2% in July. Given recent Fedspeak, the next few months of the core PCE inflation measure could be important in determining whether policymakers maintain their forecast of disinflation to resume with the Fed rate steady.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
"The president calls Warsh in bursts—several times in a stretch of days, then quiet for longer periods. Trump has sought Warsh’s counsel on a range of matters, including how the war in Iran and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence are affecting the economy." www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Trump Has Called Warsh Repeatedly Since He Became Fed Chair
The president has sought Kevin Warsh’s counsel on issues such as how the war in Iran is affecting the economy.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The FOMC held rates steady, and the vote was 9-3. Three bank presidents dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate increase. It was the first time since 2016 that there were three dissents in the same direction over a policy change.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
With interest-rate futures markets pricing in a one-third chance of a Fed hike today, whatever the Fed does will be the largest "surprise" at a non-rate-cut meeting since 1997, according to Goldman Sachs. A hike would be the largest such surprise since the Fed started announcing its moves in 1994.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Investors and many Wall Street analysts expect rates to stay on hold, but Warsh’s tight-lipped posture has led to more uncertainty in the run-up to Wednesday's Fed policy decision Between the internal and external politics, there's a lot to watch. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
What to Watch for at the Fed Meeting
Markets expect rates to stay on hold, but Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s tight-lipped posture has made Wednesday’s meeting harder to read.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
At dinner before day one of his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh told his 18 colleagues he was launching five task forces to rethink how the Fed reads the economy. Chris Waller asked what the point was. Name who's on them, he said, and I'll tell you what they'll say.
wsj.com
Kevin Warsh Wanted a ‘Good Family Fight’ at the Fed. He’s Getting One.
The new chairman initiated a debate over how the central bank works, and it could test his tight-lipped approach on the economy.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
"I can make a good case for either raising rates or not... They're just kind of stuck." Why next week's Fed meeting is shaping up as more uncertain than normal:
wsj.com
The Fed Is Heading Into One of Its Most Unpredictable Meetings in Years
A cooler inflation report is easing pressure for a rate hike next week, but Middle East conflict has rekindled jitters. A new chairman won’t tip his hand.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Economists expect the decline in energy prices last month to pull down the headline CPI for June But for the Fed, core matters more right now The core CPI is expected to land close to May's +0.21%, after which, attention will turn to the PPI and what that implies for the PCE
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
One of the most interesting passages in the minutes for the Fed's June meeting: Only a few participants thought rates were restrictive—and slightly restrictive, at that. The minutes framed the committee's divide as over outlook uncertainty, not the usual disagreement over tactics.
wsj.com
Fed Officials Flagged Risks That Would Warrant Higher Rates
More officials pointed to the artificial intelligence build-out as a source of persistent inflationary pressures at Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first meeting, minutes released Wednesday showed.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
If you memorized the Hamilton soundtrack a decade ago, footnote 1 of this week's Trump v. Cook opinion is for you. Hamilton built the national bank. His son James advised Andrew Jackson—the man who tore it down—and lived to call it a catastrophe that fueled the Panic of 1837.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
The puzzle for the Fed: If the labor market is not a source of inflationary pressure, then what explains recent stickiness? Will we start to see 0.2% m/m on core PCE? www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
wsj.com
Nick Timiraos | For the Fed, Jobs Data Takes a Back Seat to Inflation
The June payroll report does little to clarify the economic outlook for the Fed. The headline was softer than anticipated after several months of unexpectedly brisk gains. Yet the unemployment rate ti...
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Monthly payroll growth was a bit weaker than anticipated in June, and revisions shaved 74,000 from previously reported payroll estimates for April and May. But using a 6-month moving average, private sector and total hiring has been running at the firmest pace in more than one year.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Kevin Warsh won't say whether the Fed should entertain a rate hike this month, but he argued inflation risks have already eased on his watch. That's proof, he says, that markets grasp his price-stability pledge without being told the Fed's next move. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Warsh Says Inflation Outlook Has Improved but Won’t Say if Fed Should Hike
Kevin Warsh made his first public appearance since his debut press conference at the central bank’s June meeting.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Two measures of job openings show the labor market stopped getting softer around the end of last year. From the May JOLTS series: • There were 1.03 job vacancies for every unemployed worker, up from 0.87 in December • Using a 3-month average, job openings are at the highest level since Jan. 2025
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
There is a lot of talk around the Lisa Cook ruling that says, essentially, "Trump lost on a technicality." Give her notice and a hearing, paper over the process, and he'll be able to dismiss her on the next go. Let's call this the glass-half-empty view. I wonder if this misses what Roberts did.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
The biggest winner in the Cook decision may be the man Trump has put in charge of the Fed: Kevin Warsh. "The idea that a president can trump up charges and fire governors on ticky-tack grounds, and then put a bunch of real sock puppets around Warsh—how does Warsh manage the institution then?"
wsj.com
The Biggest Winner in Lisa Cook Case? Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh
The Supreme Court’s ruling against President Trump’s attempt to remove a Fed governor gives Warsh more room to operate independently of the president who picked him.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Accepting the government's position "would allow the President to remove a member of the Federal Reserve at any time, for any reason, without any notice before, and without any judicial check after," Roberts wrote. "That would turn for-cause protection into little more than at-will employment."
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Supreme Court rules 5-4 against Trump on Lisa Cook "At minimum, Cook was entitled to some explanation of the evidence at issue, some avenue for a response, and a deadline by which a response would be due." www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
supremecourt.gov
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Accessing it *for your kids* to watch a program is really obnoxious. You inevitably have to scroll through what feels like every single program ever put into the Disney (or XYZ media platform) library to get that one episode. They see five other things they want to watch before you get there.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Alan Greenspan died this week at 100. His successor-by-invocation, Kevin Warsh, is one month into remaking the Fed in what he calls Greenspan's image. A look at what that image really was, where Warsh follows it, and where he might depart. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Kevin Warsh Invokes Alan Greenspan to Shrink the Fed—and Strengthen Its Chair
The approach of the new Federal Reserve head might not always align with the standard his predecessor set.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
The Atlanta Fed's search for a new president has grown complicated. Finalists interviewed in April did not advance to the next stage in Washington, and some people familiar with the process say the search is rebooting. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Atlanta Fed Search for New Leader Stalls
The process of selecting a new bank president stalled and has been restarted. White House advisers have taken an interest in a process they have no formal role in.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has tapped two longtime staff economists, Daniel Covitz and Eric Engstrom, to advise him www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Warsh Taps Two Veteran Fed Economists as Advisers
Daniel Covitz and Eric Engstrom, longtime Fed staffers, will assist the new chairman on policy and analysis.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
NY Fed President John Williams: Inflation is "unquestionably elevated and well above" target, reflecting tariffs, energy, and AI-related demand for tech goods. "In coming quarters, however, I expect inflation readings to edge down" for several reasons:
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Core PCE was 0.32% in May, on the low side of expectations but still the fourth highest monthly print in the last 12 months (3.9% annualized) The 12-month change, at 3.4%, is the highest reading since Oct. 2023. The 6-month annualized rate is above 4%.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Trump on declining to sign the bipartisan housing bill: “It’s all about the interest rate. Lower the interest rate.”
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Forecasters who can transpose the PPI and CPI into the May PCE are expecting a firm core print (and wide wedge with the CPI) on Thursday morning, yielding a 3.4% increase from a year earlier.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Since January 2020, the San Francisco Fed has been tracking monetary-event surprises on FOMC day. Their event-study data shows that last week's FOMC meeting produced the largest hawkish surprise among the 57 meetings/events tracked. www.frbsf.org/research-and...
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Kevin Warsh is set to make at least three public appearances next month ahead of the central bank's July policy meeting July 1: Policymaker panel at the ECB's conference in Sintra, Portugal (9:30 am ET) July 14-15: Capitol Hill testimony financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eve...
financialservices.house.gov
Hearings | U.S. House Committee on Financial Services
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Fed governor Lisa Cook reported around $1.2 million in payments for legal services and security made on her behalf last year as she fights President Trump's attempt to fire her from the central bank's board www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...
wsj.com
Fed’s Cook Received More Than $1 Million in Legal Aid During Trump Clash
The Supreme Court is expected to rule by the end of June in the Fed governor’s battle to keep her job.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Reid was among a handful of Democrats unhappy that the Fed had hiked so much in 1994-95. They ordered up a report that looked at Fed expenses, including among other things new buildings being constructed by the reserve banks. www.gao.gov/assets/ggd-9...
gao.gov
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Alan Greenspan has died at 100. During his 18½ years leading the Fed, he reached rock-star heights and shaped the U.S. economy under presidents of both parties. Milton Friedman called him the greatest of all time. 2008 recast his legacy. The WSJ obituary: www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Alan Greenspan, Influential Fed Chairman Whose Legacy Was Dimmed by the Financial Crisis, Dies at 100
For 19 years, he piloted the U.S. economy through global upheaval. Critics faulted his hands-off approach to financial regulation.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Michelle Bowman, the Federal Reserve’s vice chair of supervision, spoke at an invitation-only, private dinner that Bank of America hosted for clients in New York on Wednesday evening, hours after the central bank announced its latest policy decision www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Top Bank Regulator Spoke at an Invite-Only Client Dinner After Fed Meeting
A closed-door event hosted by Bank of America featured Michelle Bowman, the vice chair for supervision.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Everyone thinking about the Fed and the AI boom is reaching for the same decade—the 1990s. The question is which year: 1996 or 1999. Patience vs pivot. That's the first big question being handed to the Warsh Fed www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Warsh’s First Test as Fed Chairman: Reading the AI Boom
Will the build-out cool or stoke price pressures? The 1990s offer two different answers.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
At his first FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh stretched his objection to forward guidance into something broader, avoiding all questions about how the committee reasons toward making a decision. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Warsh Overhauls How the Fed Talks and Keeps Markets Guessing on Rates
In his debut as chairman, Kevin Warsh stripped away the central bank’s policy hints and committed to bringing inflation down—but wouldn’t say what that will take
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
The Fed has gone from debating how many times to cut rates to debating whether it has to hike. That alone makes today's meeting more interesting than usual. The twist: it's Kevin Warsh's first as chairman—and he was picked by Trump to get lower rates. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Trump Picked Warsh to Cut Rates. His Committee Is Talking About Hikes.
Kevin Warsh walks into his first meeting as Federal Reserve chairman this week in an awkward spot. He argued for rate cuts. The conversation at the Fed has shifted the other way.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
The Fed has gone from debating how many times to cut rates to debating whether it has to hike. That alone makes today's meeting more interesting than usual. The twist: it's Kevin Warsh's first as chairman—and he was picked by Trump to get lower rates. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
“These forecasts have been abysmal. My dots wouldn’t be perfect either, so I wouldn’t give them.” Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has spent 15 years arguing the central bank says too much. Wednesday is his first meeting. My story on the quiet revolution he wants: www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
Kevin Warsh Wants the Fed to Stop Explaining Everything
For decades, the central bank believed talking openly made its policy work better. Its new chairman believes the opposite.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
The wage premium that had shown up recently for job switchers in the Atlanta Fed's wage growth tracker fizzled in the last two months. Wage growth decelerated to 3.5% in May (using the three-month moving average) from 3.9% in March. t.co/dcc3r2XR1O
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Boasberg denied Pirro's request to vacate his earlier order to quash the subpoenas sent to the Fed. This is the third time he has ruled against DOJ on the matter. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
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