iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social · 2h

Been a lot of storms since I ran 2026 AL/EP/CP verifications in early September. Results haven't changed much: GDMI still beating all the guidance for track and slightly better than OFCL on D4-5. For intensity, HCCA best, followed by OFCL and GDMI. Reminder that ECMWF is not in public ATCF decks.

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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 13h

Temperatures in the Central Pacific El Niño region are the hottest ever measured (top panel), and far above any other El Niño at this time of year. But, if you adjust for the warming of the global ocean, the current trajectory is not so different from other very strong events.

Two panel plot showing daily time series of temperature anomalies in the Central Pacific Nino3.4 region during the last four strongest El Niño events without and with correction for changes in global ocean mean temperature.

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Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Hurricane Polo is making landfall in an area that averages 5" rain per year. Even the mountains inland average under 15" per year.

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EarthSky @earthskyscience.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Astronomers say they've found a new way to decode weather on #exoplanets, and that they've tested it on the unusual world #SIMP0136. Here's what they found: buff.ly/A7esKYM 📸 C. Carter/ Caltech/ NRAO/ AUI/ NSF/ Wikipedia.

Brownish planet with bands in its atmosphere and bluish auroras at the north pole. Many stars in the background.

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Jeff Sharlet @jeffsharlet.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I give up. I’m moving into a cave.

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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It would be unprecedented in the satellite era and even in the past century to have a hurricane season with no hurricanes. In the past century (1926-2025) the fewest number of hurricanes in a season is two, and that happened in 1930, 1982, and 2013.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

Fay lingers, Gonzalo dissipates, Hanna forms

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

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Eric Holthaus @ericholthaus.com · 28/09/2026

I just read an excellent analysis of Dungeon Crawler Carl as a millennial revolutionary hero. Millennial because we were taught to endlessly grind to be rewarded someday and that has collapsed in our faces and now we find ourselves learning to be antifascists in the dungeon instead

oaklandreviewofbooks.org

Left in the dungeon

Are rumors of a leftist LitRPG genre more than fantasy? On the "Dungeon Crawler Carl" phenomenon.

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Better Things Are Possible @internethippo.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Going to work now feels like doing homework after the teacher quit and told the class that education is fake. Everyone just coasting on inertia and hoping there's still a point to all this

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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The evolution of this weekend's nor'easter.

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Brett "Solidarity 2026" Banditelli @banditelli.org · 26/09/2026

alright I'm driving home now. here are dozens of crows NOT flying in front of the Moon as if I took it on a very black and white noisy film Camera 🪶

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Covering Climate Now @coveringclimatenow.org · 26/09/2026

Outgoing UN secretary-general António Guterres talks about the urgency of the climate emergency, why he made it a top priority, and why he’s hopeful that the speed of renewable energy adoption and production will increase in response to the ongoing crisis in the Gulf. buff.ly/yDDZxdg

buff.ly

‘It’s my duty to tell the truth’: UN chief on the climate crisis, capitalism and reasons to be hopeful

Before his final general assembly, António Guterres speaks about why he put climate at the centre of his UN tenure

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Jason Dove Mark @jasondovemark.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

This piece was a lot of fun (and a lot of work!) to report and write. I wanted to make sure I captured the #climate mood just right, so I tried to leave no stone unturned

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Colin Carlson @colincarlson.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

David Quammen's essay in The New York Times today closes with this paragraph. It's both a scientific falsehood, and an incredibly dangerous narrative. If you're willing to give me five minutes of your time, I'd like to explain why.

The Ebola virus doesn’t need to spill back. It abides in its reservoir host, and awaits its next opportunity. A virus can’t climb out of a bat or a monkey and fly off in search of human prey. It can only spill over. If humans left the reservoir host alone — not hunting it, not capturing it, not eating it, not exporting it live, not disturbing its forest habitat — the virus wouldn’t re-emerge in humans. It would remain where it is, harming no one. But of course that’s not what happens. And when viruses spill, they often spill into us, because the human population is such a big, busy target.

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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Hurricane #Nolo is easily within radar range from #Hawaii now. It should be making a sharp west turn soon, but not before bringing destructive wind, waves, and rain to the Big Island. Updated version of this loop is available at bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/ (currently some server issues)

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Dennis Mersereau 🛰️ @wxdam.com · 25/09/2026

Beautiful swirl at the center of the nor'easter on visible satellite imagery this afternoon. 😍

A visible satellite image of the western Atlantic showing the nor'easter wrapping up as it brings foul weather to the East Coast.

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News Analysis @newsanalysis.com · 24/09/2026

A coastal storm is expected to bring gusty winds, high surf, and potential coastal flooding to the NYC area through the weekend. Peak wind gusts of 35-50 mph are possible Friday-Saturday. Coastal flooding is likely during high tides. #noreaster #News

fox5ny.com

NYC, NJ Nor'easter: Which part of the Northeast will be hit the hardest?

A coastal storm is expected to bring gusty winds, high surf, and potential coastal flooding to the N...

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Yale Climate Connections @climateconnections.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

It looks likely that Hawaii will experience impacts from an unprecedented three major hurricanes in one season. Meanwhile, Hurricane Polo is expected to make an unusually strong landfall in Baja California early next week. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/paci...

yaleclimateconnections.org

Pacific's cyclone factory is working overtime as multiple hurricanes roar across the basin » Yale Climate Connections

Nolo threatens Hawaii with flooding rain and dangerous surf, while powerful Hurricane Polo could make another impact to México and more tropical systems take shape.

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Chris Gloninger @climatechris.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Polo hit 892 mb off Mexico, second strongest hurricane ever recorded in the East Pacific, after going tropical storm to Cat 5 in 33 hours, the fastest on record there. Nolo is about to give Hawaii its third hurricane of the season, with 20-30" of rain forecast for the Big Island.

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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Unbelievable footage from NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters inside the eye of Category 5 Hurricane Polo. Simply incredible.

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Tom Di Liberto @tdiliberto.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The strength of El Nino is not measured on a daily time scale. The strength of El Nino is not measured on a daily time scale. The strength of El Nino is not measured on a daily time scale. The strength of El Nino is not measured on a daily time scale.

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Eric Holthaus @ericholthaus.com · 23/09/2026

An existential problem, not just for those of us who are journalists, but for democracy and truth as a whole.

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Map from the U.S. Geological Survey / UC Merced, released today, shows departure from normal precipitation and temperature for the Southwest U.S. for December through February, as predicted by six numerical models. All models predict above-normal precipitation in CA. www.usgs.gov/programs/cli...

Percent of the long-term average precipitation as predicted for the southwestern U.S. for winter 2026-2027 by six numerical models used in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble for seasonal forecasting; (Right) Departure from the long-term average temperature as predicted for the southwestern U.S. for winter 2026-2027 by six numerical prediction models used in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble for seasonal forecasting. Data downloaded from https://climatetoolbox.org/tool/Climate-Mapper, University of California-Merced on 8/11/26.

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Eric Holthaus @ericholthaus.com · 19/09/2026

We have Tropical Depression Six. It won't last long. The historic hurricane-free 2026 Atlantic hurricane season continues.

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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

"I asked about the threat of the rising sea. 'It’s definitely a problem,' the agent said. I blinked. 'Dang,' I said. 'Then how do you protect a place like this?' 'Really expensive insurance,' he replied. 'That’s the answer.'" 🙃🙃🙃 Great commentary by @kzhill.bsky.social too

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Bob Berwyn @bberwyn.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Four countries—the United States, Canada, Australia and Norway—have increased oil and gas production by 40 percent since the 2015 Paris Agreement, while the rest of world has reduced production (archive story) ...

insideclimatenews.org

‘Hurtling Toward Climate Chaos’ as COP30 Nears - Inside Climate News

Negotiators gathering for the global climate talks must acknowledge their failures and seek alternatives to spur action, scientists say.

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Eric Holthaus @ericholthaus.com · 17/09/2026

i've been waiting for this 🫠

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Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The mind reels when contemplating what a repeat of the 1926 Miami hurricane would look like today. @drjeffmasters.bsky.social's superb overview is well worth reading and pondering, especially if you're coming in cold to this behemoth.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 16/09/2026

"Please, don't say a 100%! " "Call it 70% and let's just move on." H/t @ghostpanther.bsky.social

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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 16/09/2026

Sea surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region have been at record highs since early June (climate change plus El Niño), now more than 1°C above the 1997 record this week! 😬 Bring your El Niño questions and more to our free webinar tomorrow (sign up): climatecentral-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Line graph time series of daily Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures from 1982 to 2026. This year is currently a record high for this time of year through September 14, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1, and the graphic is created by Climate Central at https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-briefings.

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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 15/09/2026

Also in this issue.... In 1877-78, a severe El Niño event contributed to a devastating famine, killing tens of millions of people. As the world faces an El Niño event that is expected to be the strongest on record, Carbon Brief unpacks the similarities and differences between the two events.

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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Paris, France, has now recorded 100 days above 25°C (77°F) in 2026 so far. This has never happened before in a calendar year since records began 154 years ago, in 1872.

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jabberwoCKY @ckyonwords.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

This is an awesome story and you should read it. You should also probably subscribe to @racketmn.com if you do not already do so.

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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

NASA GISTEMP/IRI are debuting a new web page for predictions for the annual mean temperature level and what we can expect next year. data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/gmsta/

GISTEMP history from 1980 with estimates for 2026 from two statistical models and the NMME initialized ensemble. Also an estimate for 2027 based on projected ENSO.

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taylr @taylordahlin.com · 12/09/2026

i visited alex pretti’s memorial after it was vandalized overnight with motor oil. a lot of the items have been removed for cleaning, you can see the empty space where they had been. a woman was putting out fresh flowers and that area seems unaffected, thankfully

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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

The ACE this year is at just 4.4, which is 7% of average for the date. The last time a season had less ACE than this year was 1941 and a handful of years before that. However, those were all prior to the satellite era. In the satellite era, this is the slowest start to a hurricane season on record.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

Record slow hurricane season reaches new milestone

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

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EarthSky @earthskyscience.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

September 11, 2026, is #Cloud Appreciation Day. The Cloud Appreciation Society's Memory Cloud Atlas website goes live today, Friday September 11. It’s a place where anyone around the world can upload an image of their sky! Read more: buff.ly/bRFBEbe 📸 Cecille Kennedy.

Fisheye view of rippled cirrocumulus clouds filling a blue sky above trees and a coastal landscape.

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Climate Justice Alliance @cjaourpower.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

As the climate crisis intensifies, where do our communities turn to when the systems designed to “protect” us fall short? CJA’s Just Recovery Working Group and Survival Bloc present a webinar on Just Recovery and Resilient Communities on September 14: climatejusticealliance.org/neighbors2ne...

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EarthSky @earthskyscience.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

This #summer was the warmest on record for the contiguous U.S, #NOAA reports. The average temperature for meteorological summer (June–August) was the warmest in the 132-year record. Read about it at: buff.ly/wtiQBGo 📸 NOAA/ n-ClimGrid-Monthly.

U.S. map with red blotches mostly in the Southwest, orange coverage over most of the West and South, and lighter orange blotches over the rest.

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Dr. Athena Masson @weathergoddess.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Sept. 10th is the statistical peak of the Atlantic #hurricane season. You are most likely to find a tropical cyclone somewhere in the Atlantic basin on this day. Not this year. El Niño continues to suppress activity in the Atlantic, but the Pacific continues to be highly active.

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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

We may seem some genuinely extreme humidity levels along SoCal coastal plain Tue-Wed (yes, even worse than today). As Marie's tropical moisture lingers, temps of 90-100F will combine with dew points of 70F to nearly 80F (!), yielding heat index values as high as ~110F. #CAwx

Map showing predicted heat index values over SoCal on Wed from ECMWF model. They are widely above 100F, and locally as high as 110F.

Map showing predicted humidity (dew point temperatures) over SoCal on Wed from ECMWF model. They are widely above 70F, and locally as high as 80F.

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Eric Holthaus @ericholthaus.com · 07/09/2026

NWS folks: why does this product include Alaska but not Hawaii? www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/fina...

wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Hurricane Lowell remains right of track of the latest NHC forecast — even following adjustments of the forecast track to the east with each update. Landfall in Hawaii is *not* expected, but these trends have prompted a hurricane warning in western Hawaii for significant impacts.

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Eric Holthaus @ericholthaus.com · 04/09/2026

70F dewpoint in Minneapolis this morning.

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Eric Holthaus @ericholthaus.com · 03/09/2026

I say this as a meteorologist who has spent a lot of time troubleshooting weather forecasts in parts of the world where folks don't have many resources or much data -- this new Google weather model feels revolutionary. blog.google/innovation-a...

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Brian Kahn @blkahn.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

The *average* El Niño causes $3.4 trillion in economic damages, the equivalent of France’s entire economy. This one is set to smash records by a wide margin. The damages could be staggering

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Brian Kahn @blkahn.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Becoming increasingly convinced we’re not ready for what El Niño has in store this fall and winter, especially layered on top of global warming www.wired.com/story/2026-s...

“This is probably one of the larger, if not the largest, climate events—aside from long-term warming, which really isn't a singular event—that anybody alive is potentially ever experiencing,” he says. “That's a very big deal. And I think there’s certainly going to be dramatic outcomes from this.”

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Eric Holthaus @ericholthaus.com · 02/09/2026

There's an excellent discussion happening below this post. The UN saying we've now locked in warming of 1.5°C says out loud what scientists have been studying and preparing for for decades. It's unclear where climate politics go after this.

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