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Daniel Swain

@weatherwest.bsky.social
46K followers 2.7K following 3.5K posts

Weather and climate scientist focused on extreme events like floods, droughts, & wildfires on a warming planet. www.weatherwest.com

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Reposted by Daniel Swain
BoulderCAST Weather 🏔️⛈️ @bouldercast.com · 5h
💦 Polo's remnants getting rapidly pulled northward toward the American Southwest. Flooding ongoing across large portions of New Mexico and Arizona this evening. #COWx #NMwx #AZwx #Polo #FlashFlood
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 8h
I spent the full hour on NPR/@wbur.org's "On Point" in conversation with Meghna Chakrabarti on this year's very strong El Niño event--which is expected reach record intensity by Nov--and the broader context surrounding it, as well as local-to-global impacts.
wbur.org
How the 'super' El Niño will shape the global climate
El Niño has become an annual global climate phenomenon. But this year, scientists are warning of a record-setting 'super' El Niño. What that could mean for the weather everywhere on planet earth.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 5h
On Wed, Sep 30 at 6:30pm PT, I'll be joining a Marin County Council of Mayors & Councilmembers meeting co-hosted by Marin Wildfire, Marin Conservation League, & more to discuss the historic 2026 El Niño & implications for North Bay. Zoom open to public:
us02web.zoom.us
Join our Cloud HD Video Meeting
Zoom is the leader in modern enterprise cloud communications.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 8h
I spent the full hour on NPR/@wbur.org's "On Point" in conversation with Meghna Chakrabarti on this year's very strong El Niño event--which is expected reach record intensity by Nov--and the broader context surrounding it, as well as local-to-global impacts.
wbur.org
How the 'super' El Niño will shape the global climate
El Niño has become an annual global climate phenomenon. But this year, scientists are warning of a record-setting 'super' El Niño. What that could mean for the weather everywhere on planet earth.
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Reposted by Daniel Swain
cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 11h
Hurricane Polo made landfall in Baja California del Sur last night and then crossed the Gulf of California before making another landfall this morning near Guaymas, Mexico.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Recorded live and available below, in case you missed it!
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cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Through the weekend, Hurricane Polo moved northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico. The storm is expected to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula this evening.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
New Weather West post out this evening! I discuss the hyperactive East and Central Pacific hurricane season, as well as the upcoming heatwave across CA--and also why even a dry & warm autumn tells us essentially nothing about the El Niño winter to come.
weatherwest.com
A parade of East Pacific hurricanes will miss CA (but soak the interior Southwest) before major, long-duration autumn heatwave builds - Weather West
September 27, 2026 - Daniel Swain - A hyperactive tropical East Pacific slings hurricanes toward Hawaii and Baja California, with indirect effects (modest moisture & potentially damaging ocean waves) in SoCal It has already been a remarkable, and arguably historic, East Pacific hurricane season. Three hurricanes (Lala, Lowell, Nolo) have now directly impacted the Hawaiian Islands (though none made formal landfall), with #
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I'll have a YouTube livestream on Monday, Sep 28 at 3pm PT to discuss the hyperactive East Pacific hurricane season, associated impacts to Hawaii and Baja CA, and also the upcoming major autumn heatwave across the U.S. West (including CA).
youtube.com
Update: Hyperactive hurricane season East Pacific & major autumn heatwave across CA and U.S. West - YouTube
The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 9/28/2026 topics: I...
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UC Agriculture & Natural Resources @ucanr.edu · 28/09/2026
What is “hydroclimate whiplash” — and what does it mean for our changing climate? #UCANR climate scientist Daniel Swain speaks with NHK WORLD-JAPAN News about the growing swings between extreme wet and dry conditions. @weatherwest.bsky.social ▶️ Watch here: www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/...
www3.nhk.or.jp
Hydroclimate Whiplash: the New Climate Risk - IMPACTS: Climates Change the World | NHK WORLD-JAPAN
Droughts, floods, wildfires... We look at the latest research on Hydroclimate Whiplash, a new climate risk in which extreme weather events alternate in a short time, exacerbating natural disasters.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
As a fond aficionado and practitioner of various American aphorisms, colloquialisms, and idioms--and as a person with a very crowded and often chaotic calendar--this tracks.
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Greg Porter @gporterwx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Holy moly. Hawaii narrowly avoids yet another major hurricane. #Nolo
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
New Weather West post out this evening! I discuss the hyperactive East and Central Pacific hurricane season, as well as the upcoming heatwave across CA--and also why even a dry & warm autumn tells us essentially nothing about the El Niño winter to come.
weatherwest.com
A parade of East Pacific hurricanes will miss CA (but soak the interior Southwest) before major, long-duration autumn heatwave builds - Weather West
September 27, 2026 - Daniel Swain - A hyperactive tropical East Pacific slings hurricanes toward Hawaii and Baja California, with indirect effects (modest moisture & potentially damaging ocean waves) in SoCal It has already been a remarkable, and arguably historic, East Pacific hurricane season. Three hurricanes (Lala, Lowell, Nolo) have now directly impacted the Hawaiian Islands (though none made formal landfall), with #
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Pam Kan-Rice @ucanrpam.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
”You see an acceleration in the hydroclimate cycle overall. You see more extreme precipitation when it is raining and more extreme evaporation when it is not, simply by virtue of the temperature being higher than it used to be.” @weatherwest.bsky.social said
A sponge over plants in soil illustrates how the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold has increased by 7% with 1 degree Celsius of temperature rise
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I'll have a YouTube livestream on Monday, Sep 28 at 3pm PT to discuss the hyperactive East Pacific hurricane season, associated impacts to Hawaii and Baja CA, and also the upcoming major autumn heatwave across the U.S. West (including CA).
youtube.com
Update: Hyperactive hurricane season East Pacific & major autumn heatwave across CA and U.S. West - YouTube
The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 9/28/2026 topics: I...
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Yale Climate Connections @climateconnections.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Must be September! The tropics have suddenly become remarkably busy, particularly across the Pacific, where three hurricanes are active at the same time. yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/nolo...
yaleclimateconnections.org
Nolo to bring flood, surf, and wind to Hawaii; Gonzalo develops in the Atlantic » Yale Climate Connections
Atlantic storms will be short-lived, while powerful Pacific hurricanes persist and the Northeast battles a potent nor’easter.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Also for your consideration: The accompanying Substack article by @convectivecapital.bsky.social. Thanks also to @ncar-ucar.bsky.social for making it possible to film at the iconic Mesa Lab! convective.substack.com/p/daniel-swa...
convective.substack.com
Daniel Swain and the Science of Disaster Prediction
A conversation with the internet’s favorite weather and climate scientist
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Check out my ⁨Disasterproof conversation on extreme weather in a warming climate--including why improved prediction doesn't always lead to better outcomes, what's needed to "decouple" hazard from disaster, & my honest appraisal of emerging climate tech.
youtube.com
Daniel Swain and the Science of Disaster Prediction
What does it actually take to predict a disaster? As wildfires, floods, hurricanes, and other disasters intensify, one climate scientist has become one of the most trusted voices helping the public make sense of it all before it happens. In this episode of Disasterproof, Kat sits down with Daniel S
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
For the record: The University of California has never asked me for anything like this. But I am seeing this line of questioning arising in a rapidly growing number of American contexts. It has been asked of me, personally, elsewhere. And that is very, very alarming.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Check out my ⁨Disasterproof conversation on extreme weather in a warming climate--including why improved prediction doesn't always lead to better outcomes, what's needed to "decouple" hazard from disaster, & my honest appraisal of emerging climate tech.
youtube.com
Daniel Swain and the Science of Disaster Prediction
What does it actually take to predict a disaster? As wildfires, floods, hurricanes, and other disasters intensify, one climate scientist has become one of the most trusted voices helping the public make sense of it all before it happens. In this episode of Disasterproof, Kat sits down with Daniel S
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Forecast regarding soon-to-be major Hurricane Nolo (not to be confused w/current major Hurricane Polo) has become increasingly alarming. A close approach on Sat could bring extreme rainfall (>30 inches) to Big Island, w/risk of widespread & severe flash flooding & damaging winds.
Graphic from NOAA (National Hurricane Center) showing preliminary forecast rainfall amounts on Hawaiian Island chain due to Hurricane Nolo. Widespread rainfall totals of 15-30 inches are depicted on the Big Island, with a local maximum exceeding 35 inches and notation regarding the risk of catastrophic flash flooding. Other islands are show as having risk of very heavy, though somewhat lesser, precipitation.
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Pam Kan-Rice @ucanrpam.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
"It's warming of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. That's it. That's what El Niño is. An unusually warm blob of water near the Galapagos Islands, 3,500 miles from California," Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social, @ucanr.edu climate scientist, told @jessicagarrison.bsky.social
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I offered my thoughts on the potential global implications of a likely record-strength El Niño event in 2026-2027 during the latest episode of BMO's Sustainability Leaders Podcast. capitalmarkets.bmo.com/en/insights/...
capitalmarkets.bmo.com
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Coming up in Santa Barbara! The last day to register for this conference and associated events is Saturday, Sept 26th.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
In case you missed it live, this session was recorded and is now available! Remarkably, it now appears that Hurricane Polo has likely become the fastest-strengthening East Pacific hurricane on record (from tropical storm to category 5 strength in ~30 hrs)!
youtube.com
A Category 5 hurricane west of Mexico? Plus: Thoughts on CA's El Niño-related emergency declaration
The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 9/22/2026 topic: I'll offer a deep dive into rapidly strengthening Hurricane Polo in the tropical East Pacific, which may go on to become a top-of-scale Category
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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The incredible full day, high resolution view of Hurricane Polo today.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I offered my thoughts on the potential global implications of a likely record-strength El Niño event in 2026-2027 during the latest episode of BMO's Sustainability Leaders Podcast. capitalmarkets.bmo.com/en/insights/...
capitalmarkets.bmo.com
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Coming up in Santa Barbara! The last day to register for this conference and associated events is Saturday, Sept 26th.
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cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
An extraordinary high-resolution view of a Category 5 Hurricane Polo this afternoon, seen from NOAA-20.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
In case you missed it live, this session was recorded and is now available! Remarkably, it now appears that Hurricane Polo has likely become the fastest-strengthening East Pacific hurricane on record (from tropical storm to category 5 strength in ~30 hrs)!
youtube.com
A Category 5 hurricane west of Mexico? Plus: Thoughts on CA's El Niño-related emergency declaration
The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 9/22/2026 topic: I'll offer a deep dive into rapidly strengthening Hurricane Polo in the tropical East Pacific, which may go on to become a top-of-scale Category
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Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Crazy weather day today: Polo culminates its run from a 35 mph TD Sun PM to the 2nd strongest East Pacific hurricane on record (by pressure) today, HI has another tropical threat, flash flood emergency in NM, and a Nor'easter looms. balancedweather.substack.com/p/polo-under...
balancedweather.substack.com
Polo undergoes extreme rapid intensification, becomes second most intense hurricane on record in eastern Pacific
Hawai’i also monitoring another tropical system. In CONUS, strong Nor’easter expected as New Mexico deals with serious flash flood threat.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I'll have a 2pm PT livestream on Tue, Sep 22 to discuss rapidly strengthening Hurricane Polo, which may become a Category 5 (!) storm west in East Pacific west of Mexico, and also CA's late-breaking emergency declaration due to potential El Niño impacts.
youtube.com
A Category 5 hurricane west of Mexico? Plus: Thoughts on CA's El Niño-related emergency declaration - YouTube
The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 9/22/2026 topic: I'...
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I'll have a 2pm PT livestream on Tue, Sep 22 to discuss rapidly strengthening Hurricane Polo, which may become a Category 5 (!) storm west in East Pacific west of Mexico, and also CA's late-breaking emergency declaration due to potential El Niño impacts.
youtube.com
A Category 5 hurricane west of Mexico? Plus: Thoughts on CA's El Niño-related emergency declaration - YouTube
The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 9/22/2026 topic: I'...
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 21/09/2026
This year's El Niño event is moving into record territory, with the daily Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) tying the record previously set during the 2015/2016 super-El Niño. My latest over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
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Eos @eos.org · 21/09/2026
Learn more about what El Niño could mean for California and beyond from @weatherwest.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/weat...
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It's ME(Jaime) @exceedhergrasp1.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I need people to realize that this is PLENTY of time to derail careers, close labs-- the ACLU is fighting against the whole forbidden words thing (textbook censorship) that was introduced in VERY EARLY 2025 right now. www.aclu.org/press-releas...
aclu.org
Researchers Challenge NIH Screening of Grants for Disfavored Viewpoints | American Civil Liberties Union
Class action lawsuit seeks to stop censorship and termination of federally funded scientific research
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
There is considerable uncertainty re: Polo's ultimate trajectory, which will itself somewhat depend on how intense it becomes as well as a possible "Fujiwhara Effect" interaction w/*another* nearby hurricane next week. Indirect impacts to CA/SW US possible, but TBD, in 7+ days.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Tropical Storm Polo has formed in eastern tropical Pacific. Conditions are very favorable for strengthening due to record-warm ocean temperatures & low wind shear, and Polo may threaten some portion of western coast of Mexico/Baja as a major (Cat 3+) storm in coming days.
Map from polarwx.com showing the "superensemble" of potential trajectories for Polo from all major global models, superimposed atop a sea surface temperature anomaly map. Each black line is a separate simulated trajectory, and each colored line is the ensemble average for a specific model.Map of ocean surface temperature anomalies across the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The ocean is *extremely* warm--far above average, and in most cases record warm--along the entire simulated trajectory of TS/Hurricane Polo in the coming days.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Tropical Storm Polo has formed in eastern tropical Pacific. Conditions are very favorable for strengthening due to record-warm ocean temperatures & low wind shear, and Polo may threaten some portion of western coast of Mexico/Baja as a major (Cat 3+) storm in coming days.
Map from polarwx.com showing the "superensemble" of potential trajectories for Polo from all major global models, superimposed atop a sea surface temperature anomaly map. Each black line is a separate simulated trajectory, and each colored line is the ensemble average for a specific model.Map of ocean surface temperature anomalies across the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The ocean is *extremely* warm--far above average, and in most cases record warm--along the entire simulated trajectory of TS/Hurricane Polo in the coming days.
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UC Agriculture & Natural Resources @ucanr.edu · 16/09/2026
#UCANR's Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social joined the @castatelibrary.bsky.social for a virtual talk on climate change & extreme weather in #California, and the rapidly developing 2026 #ElNiño event. www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUE6...
youtube.com
Weather Extremes in California: From El Niño, Climate Change and Beyond
YouTube video by California State Library Multimedia
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Notable new wildfire (#FloristonFire) near the CA/NV border just west of I-80 in the Sierra Nevada. This fire is burning fairly aggressively in at least patchy heavy timber under elevated, but not extreme, fire weather conditions (breezy winds and low relative humidity). #CAwx
Snapshot from Watch Duty showing location and current live camera image of #FloristonFire along Interstate 80 between Truckee and Reno.
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Pam Kan-Rice @ucanrpam.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
"You can have cresting waves from a storm that aren't related to the Kelvin wave, but now we're working with a higher baseline," @weatherwest.bsky.social @ucanr.edu told @cbsnews.com. "We're already seeing problems in coastal Southern California with coastal erosion" www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/n...
cbsnews.com
El Niño could bring rare "Kelvin Wave" phenomenon to Southern California
With a powerful El Niño already predicted to batter Southern California over the winter, forecasters are also cautioning residents to be wary of another phenomenon that may come along with it.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 16/09/2026
Sea surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region have been at record highs since early June (climate change plus El Niño), now more than 1°C above the 1997 record this week! 😬 Bring your El Niño questions and more to our free webinar tomorrow (sign up): climatecentral-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Line graph time series of daily Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures from 1982 to 2026. This year is currently a record high for this time of year through September 14, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1, and the graphic is created by Climate Central at https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-briefings.
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Kees van der Leun @sustainable2050.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Glaciologist @matthias-huss.bsky.social shows that the centre of the Great Aletsch glacier in Switzerland (the biggest in the Alps) lost 6 meters(!) of thickness just this summer. "No words...", he adds on LinkedIn.
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Pam Kan-Rice @ucanrpam.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Tuesday (9/15) at 9am on @kalxberkeley.bsky.social: Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social, climate scientist @ucanr.edu, talks about What Californians Can Expect from the ‘Super’ El Nino
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Agreed. I increasingly see this kind of argument invoked to argue against interventions like air conditioning in places where extreme heat events are increasingly leading to mass mortality. We no longer get to choose between adaptation & mitigation--we have to do both at an accelerating pace.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 14/09/2026
Here is the latest combined forecast across all 14 models, compared to past strong El Nino events. It shows just how extreme and unprecedented this event is forecast to be:
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 14/09/2026
With all the September runs of dynamic ENSO models now in (with the exception of SINTEX), we are even more likely to see a record-setting (or even record-shattering) event this year. Most models revised their projection upward, a few downward, and a few unchanged:
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I've been receiving complaints re: speech pacing during virtual office hours. (And also re: shape of my head...but, uh, no comment there.) My response: 1) Half are complaining I'm too slow...& other half too fast! 2) Viewers can adjust playback speed or read auto-transcripts.😃
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
If you missed it live, and are interested in this year's extreme El Niño event and its potential to bring major California impacts, I'd strongly encourage you to check out the recording! I even created some custom graphics just for this session... youtube.com/live/2v4k0nb...
youtube.com
September 2026 update: Extremely strong El Niño event remains on track for autumn-winter
YouTube video by Weather West
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